SteveDeace
Well-Known Member
Stone Cold Upsets & Lead Pipe Locks – Week 11
Last week: 6-6
Overall: 58-60
Best Bets: 5-5
Odds based on opening lines posted at USA Today.com and home team is in all CAPS.
Iowa-NORTHWESTERN under 50
I expect both teams to play hard here given the way they each ended up last week, and they both have something to prove. Northwestern has traditionally played well against Iowa, going back to the Gary Barnett days. Every meeting in this series since 2005 has gone under the total, and 24 of the Hawkeyes’ last 33 road games have gone under. Rain is also in the forecast for Saturday. Iowa 27, Northwestern 17
Georgia +8.5 over AUBURN
A week of distractions can’t be good for the Tigers heading into the South’s oldest rivalry. Auburn’s defense is still soft, and the Bulldogs certainly have enough firepower on offense to put up some points and at least keep it close. Georgia has also won the last four in the series. Auburn 34, Georgia 28
South Carolina-FLORIDA over 51.5
Gamecocks haven’t won in Gainesville since – get this – 1917. Throw out last week’s terrible effort by South Carolina against Arkansas, because that game didn’t matter. This is for the SEC East title, and this is probably the old ball coach’s last, best shot at getting South Carolina to its first SEC title game, and Spurrier’s club actually has the better playmakers in this game on offense. Still, with a weak defense I expect them to surrender some points in exchange. Weather forecast is perfect for a shootout, and the over is 7-2 in South Carolina games this season, and six of the last eight have gone over for the Gators. Florida 30, South Carolina 24
Indiana-WISCONSIN under 58
Eight of the last nine in this series have gone over, so of course I’m taking the under in this one. Why? Because Indiana’s offense is going nowhere since the injury to its top tailback, and with rain in the forecast the Badgers will look to grind it out with their rushing attack with a pivotal road game at Michigan and the Rose Bowl on the line the following week. Wisconsin 38, Indiana 10
Minnesota +20 over Illinois
I’m expecting a bit of a hangover here for the Illini after last week’s tough loss, and rain is again expected here, as it is throughout most of the Big Ten footprint on Saturday. Gophers have actually covered nine of their last 13 as a road underdog, while Illinois is only 23-35-2 as a home favorite ATS since 1990. Illinois 28, Minnesota 14
MISSOURI -13 over Kansas State
Redemption and urgency here for the Tigers, who are back home after playing three out of four on the road and losing two straight. They need a win here badly. Meanwhile, K-State is going bowling after blowing out Texas at home so this game isn’t as important to them. Missouri has won the last four in this series by an average of 20 points per win. Missouri 34, Kansas State 17
NOTRE DAME +5.5 over Utah
Letdown spot here for the Utes, who are now playing for the Las Vegas Bowl after getting routed by TCU at home last week to see all of their season goals dashed. On the other hand, Notre Dame is coming off a bye and desperate for victory to get closer to bowl eligibility. Irish have failed to cover their last nine home games and haven’t beaten a ranked team since 2006, so at some point they’re due. This is also the fourth road game in six weeks for Utah. Notre Dame 28, Utah 27
NORTH CAROLINA +5.5 over Virginia Tech
Both teams are hot, and both teams have trends on their side. David Wilson being out is a big injury for Virginia Tech because he’s emerging as one of its top playmakers. So with all things being even, this looks like a field goal game either way which is why I am taking the points here with the Tar Heels. Virginia Tech 24, North Carolina 21
Penn State-OHIO STATE under 49
It’s been a nice two week run for walk-on quarterback Matt McGloin, but now he enters the Horse Shoe and a big stage on the road for the first time. Ohio State is coming off a bye, and has Iowa and arch-rival Michigan on deck, so this could also be a tune up game for them. The Nittany Lions haven’t scored more than 20 points in the last eight meetings, which is why the under is 6-2 in this rivalry since 2002. Penn State has played three road games against teams with winning records this season, and each of them has gone under the total. Ohio State 28, Penn State 10
OKLAHOMA -16 over Texas Tech
This is a big revenge spot here for the Sooners, who were absolutely annihilated last season in Lubbock in what turned out to be Mike Leach’s final home game. Home team has covered the last four in the series, and Bob Stoops is 19-8 ATS in his last 27 home games. Sooners are only allowing 15 points per game at home this season, while Red Raiders surrendering 35 points per game on the road. Oklahoma is still very much in the Big 12 South Division race despite last week’s somewhat fluky loss at Texas A&M. Oklahoma 38, Texas Tech 17
Southern California-ARIZONA over 58
Don’t mess with a streak here. Six straight USC games have gone over the total, as have the last three for the Wildcats. Trojans are surrendering 28 points per game on the road this season. Arizona 35, USC 31
Michigan-PURDUE over 62
Wolverines have failed to cover their last five, and since 2008 are just 3-17 ATS after week five of the season. Michigan is just 1-6 as a road favorite under Rich Rodriguez, including a loss at Penn State two weeks ago. All the trends here favor the Boilermakers, but Michigan’s explosive offense has the talent advantage. Here’s a disturbing stat: Michigan is minus-11 in turnover margin in Big Ten play. That means they’re going to give Purdue some short fields with an already beat up defense. I am 7-2 ATS picking Michigan games this season. Michigan 38, Purdue 31
BEST BET—Boise State-Idaho over 61.5
Last week the Vandals surrendered 60+ to Nevada, and Boise State is averaging 53 points per game on the road this season. Broncos are a scoring machine when not playing on grass, going over nine of the last 11. The over is 5-1 in this series, and the one time these two didn’t go over they still combined for 55 points. Boise State 52, Idaho 17
Last week: 6-6
Overall: 58-60
Best Bets: 5-5
Odds based on opening lines posted at USA Today.com and home team is in all CAPS.
Iowa-NORTHWESTERN under 50
I expect both teams to play hard here given the way they each ended up last week, and they both have something to prove. Northwestern has traditionally played well against Iowa, going back to the Gary Barnett days. Every meeting in this series since 2005 has gone under the total, and 24 of the Hawkeyes’ last 33 road games have gone under. Rain is also in the forecast for Saturday. Iowa 27, Northwestern 17
Georgia +8.5 over AUBURN
A week of distractions can’t be good for the Tigers heading into the South’s oldest rivalry. Auburn’s defense is still soft, and the Bulldogs certainly have enough firepower on offense to put up some points and at least keep it close. Georgia has also won the last four in the series. Auburn 34, Georgia 28
South Carolina-FLORIDA over 51.5
Gamecocks haven’t won in Gainesville since – get this – 1917. Throw out last week’s terrible effort by South Carolina against Arkansas, because that game didn’t matter. This is for the SEC East title, and this is probably the old ball coach’s last, best shot at getting South Carolina to its first SEC title game, and Spurrier’s club actually has the better playmakers in this game on offense. Still, with a weak defense I expect them to surrender some points in exchange. Weather forecast is perfect for a shootout, and the over is 7-2 in South Carolina games this season, and six of the last eight have gone over for the Gators. Florida 30, South Carolina 24
Indiana-WISCONSIN under 58
Eight of the last nine in this series have gone over, so of course I’m taking the under in this one. Why? Because Indiana’s offense is going nowhere since the injury to its top tailback, and with rain in the forecast the Badgers will look to grind it out with their rushing attack with a pivotal road game at Michigan and the Rose Bowl on the line the following week. Wisconsin 38, Indiana 10
Minnesota +20 over Illinois
I’m expecting a bit of a hangover here for the Illini after last week’s tough loss, and rain is again expected here, as it is throughout most of the Big Ten footprint on Saturday. Gophers have actually covered nine of their last 13 as a road underdog, while Illinois is only 23-35-2 as a home favorite ATS since 1990. Illinois 28, Minnesota 14
MISSOURI -13 over Kansas State
Redemption and urgency here for the Tigers, who are back home after playing three out of four on the road and losing two straight. They need a win here badly. Meanwhile, K-State is going bowling after blowing out Texas at home so this game isn’t as important to them. Missouri has won the last four in this series by an average of 20 points per win. Missouri 34, Kansas State 17
NOTRE DAME +5.5 over Utah
Letdown spot here for the Utes, who are now playing for the Las Vegas Bowl after getting routed by TCU at home last week to see all of their season goals dashed. On the other hand, Notre Dame is coming off a bye and desperate for victory to get closer to bowl eligibility. Irish have failed to cover their last nine home games and haven’t beaten a ranked team since 2006, so at some point they’re due. This is also the fourth road game in six weeks for Utah. Notre Dame 28, Utah 27
NORTH CAROLINA +5.5 over Virginia Tech
Both teams are hot, and both teams have trends on their side. David Wilson being out is a big injury for Virginia Tech because he’s emerging as one of its top playmakers. So with all things being even, this looks like a field goal game either way which is why I am taking the points here with the Tar Heels. Virginia Tech 24, North Carolina 21
Penn State-OHIO STATE under 49
It’s been a nice two week run for walk-on quarterback Matt McGloin, but now he enters the Horse Shoe and a big stage on the road for the first time. Ohio State is coming off a bye, and has Iowa and arch-rival Michigan on deck, so this could also be a tune up game for them. The Nittany Lions haven’t scored more than 20 points in the last eight meetings, which is why the under is 6-2 in this rivalry since 2002. Penn State has played three road games against teams with winning records this season, and each of them has gone under the total. Ohio State 28, Penn State 10
OKLAHOMA -16 over Texas Tech
This is a big revenge spot here for the Sooners, who were absolutely annihilated last season in Lubbock in what turned out to be Mike Leach’s final home game. Home team has covered the last four in the series, and Bob Stoops is 19-8 ATS in his last 27 home games. Sooners are only allowing 15 points per game at home this season, while Red Raiders surrendering 35 points per game on the road. Oklahoma is still very much in the Big 12 South Division race despite last week’s somewhat fluky loss at Texas A&M. Oklahoma 38, Texas Tech 17
Southern California-ARIZONA over 58
Don’t mess with a streak here. Six straight USC games have gone over the total, as have the last three for the Wildcats. Trojans are surrendering 28 points per game on the road this season. Arizona 35, USC 31
Michigan-PURDUE over 62
Wolverines have failed to cover their last five, and since 2008 are just 3-17 ATS after week five of the season. Michigan is just 1-6 as a road favorite under Rich Rodriguez, including a loss at Penn State two weeks ago. All the trends here favor the Boilermakers, but Michigan’s explosive offense has the talent advantage. Here’s a disturbing stat: Michigan is minus-11 in turnover margin in Big Ten play. That means they’re going to give Purdue some short fields with an already beat up defense. I am 7-2 ATS picking Michigan games this season. Michigan 38, Purdue 31
BEST BET—Boise State-Idaho over 61.5
Last week the Vandals surrendered 60+ to Nevada, and Boise State is averaging 53 points per game on the road this season. Broncos are a scoring machine when not playing on grass, going over nine of the last 11. The over is 5-1 in this series, and the one time these two didn’t go over they still combined for 55 points. Boise State 52, Idaho 17
