SteveDeace
Well-Known Member
Stone Cold Upsets & Lead Pipe Locks – Week 10
Last week: 9-2
Overall: 55-36 (60% winners)
Best Bets: 5-4 (55% winners)
Odds are based on opening lines and home team is in all CAPS.
Minnesota-MICHIGAN STATE under 47
Kirk Cousins was awful last week at Nebraska. Sparty abandoned the running game as well. Meanwhile, Minnesota got a big rivalry win over Iowa. See where this is going? Under is 6-2 in Sparty games this season. Michigan State has also won 16 of its last 17 Noon eastern start. Michigan State 35, Minnesota 7
Michigan-IOWA under 57
Iowa has never beaten the Wolverines three times in a row in school history, and the underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. However, the Hawkeyes are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight conference games. With those trends cancelling out, and Iowa’s 59-12 home record in recent years cancelling out Michigan’s slight overall talent edge, the number that sticks out is the total. Six of Iowa’s last 9 conference games have gone under the total. I am 5-3 picking Michigan games ATS so far this season. Michigan 28, Iowa 21
FLORIDA -11.5 over Vanderbilt
Gators are overdue for a breakout effort after four straight losses, and one has to think the Commodores will come to the Swamp with their daubers down after the way they lost a big opportunity to beat a ranked team at home last week. Florida 34, Vanderbilt 14
Northwestern-NEBRASKA over 63.5
This is a sandwich game for the Huskers coming off an emotional win over Michigan State with a big road game at Penn State on deck. Every Northwestern game has gone over the total since Dan Persa came back. Nebraska 38, Northwestern 30
Purdue-WISCONSIN over 57
The last 5 games for the Badgers have gone over the total. Look for Wisconsin to jump out to a big early lead, and for the Boilermakers to rack up some garbage time points and yards in the second half. Wisconsin 42, Purdue 21
ARKANSAS -6 over South Carolina
After back-to-back scares on the road, the Razorbacks finally return home against a South Carolina squad playing with a different quarterback and running back then it started the year with. Arkansas has covered 72% of its home games since Bobby Petrino arrived. Arkansas 28, South Carolina 14
Kansas State-OKLAHOMA STATE over 68
The over is a 70% play in the Cowboys’ last 60 home games, including last week against Baylor. 71% of Kansas State’s last 52 road games have gone over the total as well. Oklahoma State 45, Kansas State 28
Boise State -41 over UNLV
The Running Rebels already sucked, and now they have suspended three starters for this game. Broncos are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 road games. Boise State 55, UNLV 7
UCLA +11 over Arizona State
The Sun Devils do not traditionally play well at the Rose Bowl, covering the spread just twice in their last eight trips. Combined the two teams could be without several players because of injuries and suspensions, so I’ll go with the home team in a bit of an ugly slugfest. UCLA 23, Arizona State 21
OREGON STATE +21 over Stanford
This game has letdown written all over it. The Cardinal has the nation’s longest winning streak, and is coming off a triple-overtime thriller. They’re back on the road again in sleepy Corvallis, and Stanford is just 4-10 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Stanford 35, Oregon State 17
COLORADO +22.5 over USC
See above. Another letdown spot on the road for the other half of the Stanford-USC classic last week, especially since the Trojans are coming big games back-to-back with Notre Dame two weeks ago as well. USC 36, Colorado 24
Best Bet—LSU-ALABAMA under 43.5
The under is 19-9-1 in Alabama’s last 29 home games, and the Crimson Tide is averaging allowing only 10 points per game at home under Nick Saban. The talent on the field on defense is too much for either pedestrian quarterback to handle. LSU 16, Alabama 14
Last week: 9-2
Overall: 55-36 (60% winners)
Best Bets: 5-4 (55% winners)
Odds are based on opening lines and home team is in all CAPS.
Minnesota-MICHIGAN STATE under 47
Kirk Cousins was awful last week at Nebraska. Sparty abandoned the running game as well. Meanwhile, Minnesota got a big rivalry win over Iowa. See where this is going? Under is 6-2 in Sparty games this season. Michigan State has also won 16 of its last 17 Noon eastern start. Michigan State 35, Minnesota 7
Michigan-IOWA under 57
Iowa has never beaten the Wolverines three times in a row in school history, and the underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. However, the Hawkeyes are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight conference games. With those trends cancelling out, and Iowa’s 59-12 home record in recent years cancelling out Michigan’s slight overall talent edge, the number that sticks out is the total. Six of Iowa’s last 9 conference games have gone under the total. I am 5-3 picking Michigan games ATS so far this season. Michigan 28, Iowa 21
FLORIDA -11.5 over Vanderbilt
Gators are overdue for a breakout effort after four straight losses, and one has to think the Commodores will come to the Swamp with their daubers down after the way they lost a big opportunity to beat a ranked team at home last week. Florida 34, Vanderbilt 14
Northwestern-NEBRASKA over 63.5
This is a sandwich game for the Huskers coming off an emotional win over Michigan State with a big road game at Penn State on deck. Every Northwestern game has gone over the total since Dan Persa came back. Nebraska 38, Northwestern 30
Purdue-WISCONSIN over 57
The last 5 games for the Badgers have gone over the total. Look for Wisconsin to jump out to a big early lead, and for the Boilermakers to rack up some garbage time points and yards in the second half. Wisconsin 42, Purdue 21
ARKANSAS -6 over South Carolina
After back-to-back scares on the road, the Razorbacks finally return home against a South Carolina squad playing with a different quarterback and running back then it started the year with. Arkansas has covered 72% of its home games since Bobby Petrino arrived. Arkansas 28, South Carolina 14
Kansas State-OKLAHOMA STATE over 68
The over is a 70% play in the Cowboys’ last 60 home games, including last week against Baylor. 71% of Kansas State’s last 52 road games have gone over the total as well. Oklahoma State 45, Kansas State 28
Boise State -41 over UNLV
The Running Rebels already sucked, and now they have suspended three starters for this game. Broncos are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 road games. Boise State 55, UNLV 7
UCLA +11 over Arizona State
The Sun Devils do not traditionally play well at the Rose Bowl, covering the spread just twice in their last eight trips. Combined the two teams could be without several players because of injuries and suspensions, so I’ll go with the home team in a bit of an ugly slugfest. UCLA 23, Arizona State 21
OREGON STATE +21 over Stanford
This game has letdown written all over it. The Cardinal has the nation’s longest winning streak, and is coming off a triple-overtime thriller. They’re back on the road again in sleepy Corvallis, and Stanford is just 4-10 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Stanford 35, Oregon State 17
COLORADO +22.5 over USC
See above. Another letdown spot on the road for the other half of the Stanford-USC classic last week, especially since the Trojans are coming big games back-to-back with Notre Dame two weeks ago as well. USC 36, Colorado 24
Best Bet—LSU-ALABAMA under 43.5
The under is 19-9-1 in Alabama’s last 29 home games, and the Crimson Tide is averaging allowing only 10 points per game at home under Nick Saban. The talent on the field on defense is too much for either pedestrian quarterback to handle. LSU 16, Alabama 14
