SteveDeace
Well-Known Member
Stone Cold Upsets & Lead Pipe Locks – Week 10
Last week: 6-5
Overall: 52-54
Best Bets: 4-5
Odds based on opening lines posted at USA Today and home team in all CAPS.
MICHIGAN-Illinois over 57
The over is 5-2 in last seven Illini games and five of the last six Michigan games have gone over as well. Michigan’s secondary, which was terrible to begin with, has lost another starter for the season. I’d love to pick Michigan winning the game to build on some positive momentum from the NCAA momentum but that’s tough to do until the defense shows something it hasn’t shown until now. I am 6-2 so far picking Michigan games against the spread this season. Illinois 35, Michigan 28
Maryland +11 over MIAMI
Hurricanes are likely to be without their starting quarterback and leading rusher because of injuries. Randy Shannon is just 11-22 as a home favorite ATS, and only 3-8 as a double digit home favorite. Miami has covered just three of its last 11 ACC games. Maryland 23, Miami 20
Iowa-INDIANA under 53.5
Hawkeyes are due for a bit of a letdown after consecutive emotional games at home, and their leading rusher is likely out with a concussion. So I think this game shapes up as sort of a sluggish, low-scoring affair. Iowa 31, Indiana 14
IOWA STATE +19 over Nebraska
Huskers are clearly the more talented team across the board, but the situation favors Iowa State. They will have an energetic home crowd for their final visit from the hated Huskers, Taylor Martinez is likely to at least be somewhat hobbled by an ankle injury, and Nebraska is coming off of three emotionally draining games in a row. Nebraska 33, Iowa State 21
WAKE FOREST +2.5 over Boston College
Eagles are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games (including 1-8 in their last nine), 4-17 ATS versus teams with losing records, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games, and due for a letdown after a big win over Clemson last week. Wake Forest 28, Boston College 24
Hawaii +23 over BOISE STATE
Warriors have covered five straight games and seven of their last eight. They’ve also covered 10 of their last 14 away games. Hawaii has also covered four of the last five in this series, while Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last five games at home as the pressure continues to build for them to put up big numbers to impress the pollsters. Boise State 45, Hawaii 28
LOUISIANA TECH +2 over Fresno State
Don’t mess with a streak: Fresno State is 0-7 ATS in the last seven meetings. Not to mention just 6-13 as a road favorite. La Tech is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games. Louisiana Tech 27, Fresno State 21
Oklahoma-TEXAS A&M over 59.5
Sooners have put up 60+ points in the last two meetings, and the total has gone over in six of the last eight in the series. Oklahoma has given up over 30 points per game in its two road games so far this year, while Texas A&M is averaging 35 points per game at home. Oklahoma 38, Texas A&M 31
SOUTH CAROLINA -3 over Arkansas
Razorbacks are struggling to run the ball consistently, and South Carolina has one of the better pass rushes in the SEC. Ryan Mallett’s statistics are far better at home than away, and his best receiver is now out for the year. All the trends favor Arkansas, but the situation and matchups favors the Gamecocks. South Carolina 28, Arkansas 21
CLEMSON -2.5 over N.C. State
It should always get your attention when an unranked team is favored over a ranked one. Clemson is coming off an ugly loss at Boston College, while the Wolfpack is coming off a nationally-televised win over Florida State. So why are the Tigers favored? Quite simply they’re at home and they’re the more desperate team here. Clemson 30, N.C. State 23
TEXAS TECH +5.5 over Missouri
Third road game in four weeks for Mizzou, and this is a tough spot for them against a still explosive Texas Tech in search of its first meaningful home victory under Tommy Tuberville. This is also a revenge spot here for Texas Tech as well, having lost the last three in this series. Texas Tech the more desperate team here as well, still needs two victories for bowl eligibility while the Tigers’ BCS and Big 12 North dreams are essentially over. Texas Tech 35, Missouri 31
Best Bet—OREGON -27 over Washington
Huskies are playing without star quarterback Jake Locker. Oregon has covered the last six in this series winning by an average of 20 points per game. Ducks are also 23-9 ATS at home as of late, while Washington is only 4-12 as a road underdog since 2007. Oregon 49, Washington 14
Last week: 6-5
Overall: 52-54
Best Bets: 4-5
Odds based on opening lines posted at USA Today and home team in all CAPS.
MICHIGAN-Illinois over 57
The over is 5-2 in last seven Illini games and five of the last six Michigan games have gone over as well. Michigan’s secondary, which was terrible to begin with, has lost another starter for the season. I’d love to pick Michigan winning the game to build on some positive momentum from the NCAA momentum but that’s tough to do until the defense shows something it hasn’t shown until now. I am 6-2 so far picking Michigan games against the spread this season. Illinois 35, Michigan 28
Maryland +11 over MIAMI
Hurricanes are likely to be without their starting quarterback and leading rusher because of injuries. Randy Shannon is just 11-22 as a home favorite ATS, and only 3-8 as a double digit home favorite. Miami has covered just three of its last 11 ACC games. Maryland 23, Miami 20
Iowa-INDIANA under 53.5
Hawkeyes are due for a bit of a letdown after consecutive emotional games at home, and their leading rusher is likely out with a concussion. So I think this game shapes up as sort of a sluggish, low-scoring affair. Iowa 31, Indiana 14
IOWA STATE +19 over Nebraska
Huskers are clearly the more talented team across the board, but the situation favors Iowa State. They will have an energetic home crowd for their final visit from the hated Huskers, Taylor Martinez is likely to at least be somewhat hobbled by an ankle injury, and Nebraska is coming off of three emotionally draining games in a row. Nebraska 33, Iowa State 21
WAKE FOREST +2.5 over Boston College
Eagles are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games (including 1-8 in their last nine), 4-17 ATS versus teams with losing records, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games, and due for a letdown after a big win over Clemson last week. Wake Forest 28, Boston College 24
Hawaii +23 over BOISE STATE
Warriors have covered five straight games and seven of their last eight. They’ve also covered 10 of their last 14 away games. Hawaii has also covered four of the last five in this series, while Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last five games at home as the pressure continues to build for them to put up big numbers to impress the pollsters. Boise State 45, Hawaii 28
LOUISIANA TECH +2 over Fresno State
Don’t mess with a streak: Fresno State is 0-7 ATS in the last seven meetings. Not to mention just 6-13 as a road favorite. La Tech is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games. Louisiana Tech 27, Fresno State 21
Oklahoma-TEXAS A&M over 59.5
Sooners have put up 60+ points in the last two meetings, and the total has gone over in six of the last eight in the series. Oklahoma has given up over 30 points per game in its two road games so far this year, while Texas A&M is averaging 35 points per game at home. Oklahoma 38, Texas A&M 31
SOUTH CAROLINA -3 over Arkansas
Razorbacks are struggling to run the ball consistently, and South Carolina has one of the better pass rushes in the SEC. Ryan Mallett’s statistics are far better at home than away, and his best receiver is now out for the year. All the trends favor Arkansas, but the situation and matchups favors the Gamecocks. South Carolina 28, Arkansas 21
CLEMSON -2.5 over N.C. State
It should always get your attention when an unranked team is favored over a ranked one. Clemson is coming off an ugly loss at Boston College, while the Wolfpack is coming off a nationally-televised win over Florida State. So why are the Tigers favored? Quite simply they’re at home and they’re the more desperate team here. Clemson 30, N.C. State 23
TEXAS TECH +5.5 over Missouri
Third road game in four weeks for Mizzou, and this is a tough spot for them against a still explosive Texas Tech in search of its first meaningful home victory under Tommy Tuberville. This is also a revenge spot here for Texas Tech as well, having lost the last three in this series. Texas Tech the more desperate team here as well, still needs two victories for bowl eligibility while the Tigers’ BCS and Big 12 North dreams are essentially over. Texas Tech 35, Missouri 31
Best Bet—OREGON -27 over Washington
Huskies are playing without star quarterback Jake Locker. Oregon has covered the last six in this series winning by an average of 20 points per game. Ducks are also 23-9 ATS at home as of late, while Washington is only 4-12 as a road underdog since 2007. Oregon 49, Washington 14
