SteveDeace
Well-Known Member
Stone Cold Upsets & Lead Pipe Locks – Week 1
2011 Overall Record: 77-56 (58% winners)
2011 Best Bets: 8-6 (57% winners)
Odds are based on opening lines and home team is in all CAPS.
VANDERBILT +7 over South Carolina
A preseason top 10 team only a touchdown favorite against a notorious and unknown cellar dweller? Vanderbilt quietly won six games last year, and the Gamecocks’ top player is coming back from major knee surgery. The Commodores put a scare into the old ball coach. South Carolina 24, Vanderbilt 21
N.C. State +7 over Tennessee
The Vols have been rocked by the dismissal of one of their top players, and take on one of the most underrated teams this preseason. The Wolfpack have a potential first round pick at quarterback, and return intact a secondary that led the nation in interceptions last season. N.C. State 27, Tennessee 21
MICHIGAN STATE -7.5 over Boise State
The Broncos have been outstanding against BCS schools in recent years, but this is a bad matchup for an almost entirely rebuilt defense and a new quarterback on the road. Sparty should be able to out-muscle Boise State on both sides of the line. Michigan State 28, Boise State 14
IOWA STATE +1.5 over Tulsa
I love BCS conference schools as underdogs to non-AQ opponents, especially at home. Throw in this as a season opener for the Cyclones, with coaches having the entire camp to motivate them for the lack of respect, and all the intangibles here favor ISU. The Cyclones have covered their last five as an underdog. Iowa State 24, Tulsa 17
BOSTON COLLEGE +2 over Miami (Fla.)
Both programs are a mess, but the home team has covered 7 of the last 10 meetings. The Eagles also have the more stable quarterback situation. Boston College 20, Miami (Fla.) 17
Auburn +3 over Clemson (Atlanta)
On a neutral field I’ll take the SEC team plus the points over an ACC squad every single team, especially when that ACC squad is breaking in a new defensive coordinator and is minus the best player in the program. Auburn 31, Clemson 27
Wyoming-TEXAS under 51.5
The Longhorns have gone under the total in 9 of their last 13, including 6 of their last 8, and have the best defense in the Big 12. Throw in their still developing quarterback position against Wyoming, who has gone under the total in 5 of its last 6, and the under looks like the play here. Texas 39, Wyoming 7
Michigan-Alabama (Dallas) over 45
Both teams are re-tooling their defenses and bring back experienced quarterbacks. Of course, Michigan’s Denard Robinson is one of the most explosive players in all of college football. It’s indoors on a fast track, too. Alabama 31, Michigan 21
Kentucky +13 over Louisville
The Cardinals could be the best in the Big East, but you don’t give a SEC team two touchdowns against a Big Least team—especially in a rivalry game. Five of the last seven meetings have been decided by a touchdown or less. Louisville 23, Kentucky 16
BEST BET—Arkansas State-OREGON over 66
The Ducks might score 66 in this game by themselves. Oh, and Arkansas State averaged over 35 points per game last season as well, and returns its starting quarterback. Oregon 55, Arkansas State 21
P.S...I don't do FCS games versus the spread, which is why Iowa is not a game pick this week.
2011 Overall Record: 77-56 (58% winners)
2011 Best Bets: 8-6 (57% winners)
Odds are based on opening lines and home team is in all CAPS.
VANDERBILT +7 over South Carolina
A preseason top 10 team only a touchdown favorite against a notorious and unknown cellar dweller? Vanderbilt quietly won six games last year, and the Gamecocks’ top player is coming back from major knee surgery. The Commodores put a scare into the old ball coach. South Carolina 24, Vanderbilt 21
N.C. State +7 over Tennessee
The Vols have been rocked by the dismissal of one of their top players, and take on one of the most underrated teams this preseason. The Wolfpack have a potential first round pick at quarterback, and return intact a secondary that led the nation in interceptions last season. N.C. State 27, Tennessee 21
MICHIGAN STATE -7.5 over Boise State
The Broncos have been outstanding against BCS schools in recent years, but this is a bad matchup for an almost entirely rebuilt defense and a new quarterback on the road. Sparty should be able to out-muscle Boise State on both sides of the line. Michigan State 28, Boise State 14
IOWA STATE +1.5 over Tulsa
I love BCS conference schools as underdogs to non-AQ opponents, especially at home. Throw in this as a season opener for the Cyclones, with coaches having the entire camp to motivate them for the lack of respect, and all the intangibles here favor ISU. The Cyclones have covered their last five as an underdog. Iowa State 24, Tulsa 17
BOSTON COLLEGE +2 over Miami (Fla.)
Both programs are a mess, but the home team has covered 7 of the last 10 meetings. The Eagles also have the more stable quarterback situation. Boston College 20, Miami (Fla.) 17
Auburn +3 over Clemson (Atlanta)
On a neutral field I’ll take the SEC team plus the points over an ACC squad every single team, especially when that ACC squad is breaking in a new defensive coordinator and is minus the best player in the program. Auburn 31, Clemson 27
Wyoming-TEXAS under 51.5
The Longhorns have gone under the total in 9 of their last 13, including 6 of their last 8, and have the best defense in the Big 12. Throw in their still developing quarterback position against Wyoming, who has gone under the total in 5 of its last 6, and the under looks like the play here. Texas 39, Wyoming 7
Michigan-Alabama (Dallas) over 45
Both teams are re-tooling their defenses and bring back experienced quarterbacks. Of course, Michigan’s Denard Robinson is one of the most explosive players in all of college football. It’s indoors on a fast track, too. Alabama 31, Michigan 21
Kentucky +13 over Louisville
The Cardinals could be the best in the Big East, but you don’t give a SEC team two touchdowns against a Big Least team—especially in a rivalry game. Five of the last seven meetings have been decided by a touchdown or less. Louisville 23, Kentucky 16
BEST BET—Arkansas State-OREGON over 66
The Ducks might score 66 in this game by themselves. Oh, and Arkansas State averaged over 35 points per game last season as well, and returns its starting quarterback. Oregon 55, Arkansas State 21
P.S...I don't do FCS games versus the spread, which is why Iowa is not a game pick this week.
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