SteveDeace
Well-Known Member
Lead Pipe Locks and Stone Cold Upsets – Week 1
Average of 56% winners the past three years against the spread
Home Team in all CAPS and odds are based on opening lines.
IOWA STATE -3 over Northern Illinois
Cyclones were 6-0 last season in games in which they rushed for 200 yards or more, and Iowa State returns three offensive line starters plus 1000-yard rusher Alexander Robinson. Cyclones have covered 65% of their games as a home favorite in recent years. Huskies have failed to cover their last five road games. Iowa State 27, Northern Illinois 20
Southern Mississippi +14 over SOUTH CAROLINA
The Eagles have two proven and productive quarterbacks while Steve Spurrier has made it clear he’s not enamored with the development of incumbent Stephen Garcia. Southern Mississippi is 15-8 against the spread on the road since 2007. Gamecocks have also suspended one of their top offensive players for the game. South Carolina 23, Southern Mississippi 16
Southern California -18.5 over HAWAII
Trojans have averaged 62 points per game in the last three meetings and are 28-1 all time versus the WAC. Look for USC to play with a chip on its shoulder coming off a mediocre season (by their standards) combined with the NCAA sanctions. I’m not sure the Warriors have a single player that would start for USC. Southern California 41, Hawaii 20
KANSAS STATE +2.5 over UCLA
It’s been a preseason camp filled with distractions for the Bruins, thanks mainly to a slew of injuries and a still unsettled quarterback position. Meanwhile, it’s been quiet in Manhattan and not a lot is known about the Wildcats—just the way Bill Snyder likes it. UCLA is just 4-12 ATS in its last 16 road games. Kansas State 20, UCLA 17
Texas -26 over RICE
The Owls are 1-38 all-time in this series and have been outgained by over 300 yards per game in the last eight meetings. Longhorns are practically automatic in September both straight up and versus the line for the past decade. Texas 45, Rice 14
OKLAHOMA -28.5 over Utah State
Visiting Aggies are without two of their top offensive players, and Oklahoma has averaged 49 points per game in the past four meetings. Utah State has won just one of its last 13 road games. Oklahoma 42, Utah State 10
Maryland +7 over NAVY
Strictly a hunch pick here, because for a team from a BCS conference to find itself as a touchdown underdog to a service academy has to be a motivating factor. Also, the Midshipmen’s quirky offense isn’t as much of a factor in a season opener because Maryland has had the entire offseason to prepare. Navy has failed to cover its last five home games. Navy 27, Maryland 23
LSU ‘pick em over North Carolina
This line has fluctuated as much as any I can remember because of the uncertainty of suspensions for the Tar Heels. Regardless of who does or doesn’t play, a preseason camp filled with this many distractions can’t be good for preparation purposes, which gives the Tigers the edge. LSU 20, North Carolina 10
MICHIGAN -3 over Connecticut
Most of the trends here favor the Huskies, and the line reveals that the oddsmakers believe the game is a tossup. The fact the line has remained this stable indicates the public is split on the game as well. What’s really interesting about this game is that both teams’ strengths play to the vulnerabilities of the other, which gives the Wolverines the edge with the emotion of home field advantage and the dedication of the renovated Michigan Stadium. Plus, they need this game more. Simply put: Rich Rodriguez cannot afford to lose the first game in a $200 million stadium on national television with a new athletics director to a team that’s only been playing FBS football since 2000. Michigan 31, Connecticut 24
Best Bet—MICHIGAN STATE -20.5 over Western Michigan
A new quarterback for the Broncos, who have covered just two of their last 10 games on the road. MSU won last year’s meeting by 35 points, and are more explosive on offense this season with a more experienced Kirk Cousins. Michigan State 45, Western Michigan 14
Jon, on KXNO tomorrow I am picking the following games:
USC -18.5 over Hawaii (tonight)
LSU over North Carolina
Texas -26 over Rice
Oklahoma -28.5 over Utah State
Michigan State -20.5 over Western Michigan (overtime)
Average of 56% winners the past three years against the spread
Home Team in all CAPS and odds are based on opening lines.
IOWA STATE -3 over Northern Illinois
Cyclones were 6-0 last season in games in which they rushed for 200 yards or more, and Iowa State returns three offensive line starters plus 1000-yard rusher Alexander Robinson. Cyclones have covered 65% of their games as a home favorite in recent years. Huskies have failed to cover their last five road games. Iowa State 27, Northern Illinois 20
Southern Mississippi +14 over SOUTH CAROLINA
The Eagles have two proven and productive quarterbacks while Steve Spurrier has made it clear he’s not enamored with the development of incumbent Stephen Garcia. Southern Mississippi is 15-8 against the spread on the road since 2007. Gamecocks have also suspended one of their top offensive players for the game. South Carolina 23, Southern Mississippi 16
Southern California -18.5 over HAWAII
Trojans have averaged 62 points per game in the last three meetings and are 28-1 all time versus the WAC. Look for USC to play with a chip on its shoulder coming off a mediocre season (by their standards) combined with the NCAA sanctions. I’m not sure the Warriors have a single player that would start for USC. Southern California 41, Hawaii 20
KANSAS STATE +2.5 over UCLA
It’s been a preseason camp filled with distractions for the Bruins, thanks mainly to a slew of injuries and a still unsettled quarterback position. Meanwhile, it’s been quiet in Manhattan and not a lot is known about the Wildcats—just the way Bill Snyder likes it. UCLA is just 4-12 ATS in its last 16 road games. Kansas State 20, UCLA 17
Texas -26 over RICE
The Owls are 1-38 all-time in this series and have been outgained by over 300 yards per game in the last eight meetings. Longhorns are practically automatic in September both straight up and versus the line for the past decade. Texas 45, Rice 14
OKLAHOMA -28.5 over Utah State
Visiting Aggies are without two of their top offensive players, and Oklahoma has averaged 49 points per game in the past four meetings. Utah State has won just one of its last 13 road games. Oklahoma 42, Utah State 10
Maryland +7 over NAVY
Strictly a hunch pick here, because for a team from a BCS conference to find itself as a touchdown underdog to a service academy has to be a motivating factor. Also, the Midshipmen’s quirky offense isn’t as much of a factor in a season opener because Maryland has had the entire offseason to prepare. Navy has failed to cover its last five home games. Navy 27, Maryland 23
LSU ‘pick em over North Carolina
This line has fluctuated as much as any I can remember because of the uncertainty of suspensions for the Tar Heels. Regardless of who does or doesn’t play, a preseason camp filled with this many distractions can’t be good for preparation purposes, which gives the Tigers the edge. LSU 20, North Carolina 10
MICHIGAN -3 over Connecticut
Most of the trends here favor the Huskies, and the line reveals that the oddsmakers believe the game is a tossup. The fact the line has remained this stable indicates the public is split on the game as well. What’s really interesting about this game is that both teams’ strengths play to the vulnerabilities of the other, which gives the Wolverines the edge with the emotion of home field advantage and the dedication of the renovated Michigan Stadium. Plus, they need this game more. Simply put: Rich Rodriguez cannot afford to lose the first game in a $200 million stadium on national television with a new athletics director to a team that’s only been playing FBS football since 2000. Michigan 31, Connecticut 24
Best Bet—MICHIGAN STATE -20.5 over Western Michigan
A new quarterback for the Broncos, who have covered just two of their last 10 games on the road. MSU won last year’s meeting by 35 points, and are more explosive on offense this season with a more experienced Kirk Cousins. Michigan State 45, Western Michigan 14
Jon, on KXNO tomorrow I am picking the following games:
USC -18.5 over Hawaii (tonight)
LSU over North Carolina
Texas -26 over Rice
Oklahoma -28.5 over Utah State
Michigan State -20.5 over Western Michigan (overtime)
Last edited:
