Someone needs to teach Oglesby about effective field goal percentage

H

hawk2012

Well-Known Member
He was wide open for a three today and dribbled into take a 2. Why? This should never happen with a shooter like Oglesby. Because a three is worth more than a two, you only have to hit 33% of threes to have the same effective field goal percentage as hitting 50% of shots inside the arc. Did taking a few steps in really increase his odds by 17%. I doubt it. Of course, with some players like Cartwright this is definitely advised but not for a good a shooter as Oglesby.

Otherwise, he played a great game today. I hope he keeps shooting.
 
I won't disagree with the shot selection there, but it does seem strange to create a thread dedicated to this hours after the game.
 
hawk2012 said:
He was wide open for a three today and dribbled into take a 2. Why? This should never happen with a shooter like Oglesby. Because a three is worth more than a two, you only have to hit 33% of threes to have the same effective field goal percentage as hitting 50% of shots inside the arc. Did taking a few steps in really increase his odds by 17%. I doubt it. Of course, with some players like Cartwright this is definitely advised but not for a good a shooter as Oglesby.

Otherwise, he played a great game today. I hope he keeps shooting.
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I disagree. Josh has a very good one-dribble pull-up. It's all about rhythm for sharpshooters. Not to mention it keeps the defender honest, he's going to take longer to close out and Josh will get better looks the next time. Additionally, having an open look from the elbow is basically a layup for guys at this level.
 
I keep remembering how Fran was quoted As " Ogelsby is the best shooter I've ever seen". I'm still believing in Frans prediction. Ogys got 3more years to mature!!
 
I was frustrated with that play too...I yelled and then the announcers even mentioned it...when you're a shooter kid, and you get a wide open look...ya gotta let it fly.
 
Benddontbreak said:
I disagree. Josh has a very good one-dribble pull-up. It's all about rhythm for sharpshooters. Not to mention it keeps the defender honest, he's going to take longer to close out and Josh will get better looks the next time. Additionally, having an open look from the elbow is basically a layup for guys at this level.
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Well then he misses a lot of layups. The 3 was the right play, and I bet Fran would say the same thing.
 
Hawkeye11en1 said:
Well then he misses a lot of layups. The 3 was the right play, and I bet Fran would say the same thing.
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And one dribble pull ups for when you are being guarded if you are a shooter and you catch the ball at the 3 point line with no one around you let it fly, he was going to shoot it but then he saw he was wide open (he hurt himself right there by thinking about it) then dribbled up 5 feet. You knew when he did that the chances of him making that shot was not very good.

But over the next 3 years hopefully he will be that dead eye shooter that Fran talks about, we only see short glimpses right now.
 
I'm going to guess Fran or the staff mentioned it to Josh at the next break or after the game. The next time he takes the 3.
 
Oglesby is all about confidence, as most shooters are. After that happened I hope one of the coaches was in his ear about it. If he is open I want him to keep shooting and the coaches need to give him that confidence to keep doing it.
 
That does drive me nuts and he does it a lot. But he is young. When he gets more confident,(next season) he will think one pass ahead and know when he's going to shoot, pass, or drive.
He looks like he is thinking when he gets the ball. You gotta know before you get it, what you are going to do with it. He'll get there.
 
1hawkeye1 said:
He looks like he is thinking when he gets the ball. You gotta know before you get it, what you are going to do with it. He'll get there.
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Definitely, he is second guessing himself and a shooter should never do that. I seen Korver clank 5 three pointers in a row yesterday, a big reason why the Bulls lost last night. But he kept right on shooting, and I was fine with that because that will win them more games than losing. A shooter has got to keep shooting without hesitation.
 
austinhawk said:
I keep remembering how Fran was quoted As " Ogelsby is the best shooter I've ever seen". I'm still believing in Frans prediction. Ogys got 3more years to mature!!
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You need to understand that Fran blows smoke up his players' butts in the press. Why don't you go back and read what he said about Brommer before the season as well.

Josh was a career 39% 3 Pt shooter in High school. There is NO WAY that is the best Fran has seen, the dude freaking recruited JIMMER! Seriously, take what Fran says with a grain of salt. :cool:

When guys go to college, you see about a 3%-5% drop off in their 3 pt shooting. That is exactly what has happened with Josh. Some guys really improve on this with time, others don't.
 
So Caar in HS Oglesby did not improve his shooting percentage? He was a 39% shooter from when he was a freshman to when he was a senior?
 
hawk2012 said:
He was wide open for a three today and dribbled into take a 2. Why? This should never happen with a shooter like Oglesby. Because a three is worth more than a two, you only have to hit 33% of threes to have the same effective field goal percentage as hitting 50% of shots inside the arc. Did taking a few steps in really increase his odds by 17%. I doubt it. Of course, with some players like Cartwright this is definitely advised but not for a good a shooter as Oglesby.

Otherwise, he played a great game today. I hope he keeps shooting.
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He's not confident. That's my take at least.
 
ssckelley said:
So Caar in HS Oglesby did not improve his shooting percentage? He was a 39% shooter from when he was a freshman to when he was a senior?
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Okay, bad choice of words. When he graduated he was a 39% 3 pt shooter. Don't know his soph and jr stats. Still the same thing. Guys normally see a 3-5% drop in 3 pt percentage when they hit the NCAA.
 
The stats back it up - here are the eFG% of some of the Hawkeye players:
Gatens - 58.6% (99th in the nation)
McCabe - 53.9%
White - 53.4%
Basabe - 51.1%
Oglesby 49.1%
May - 45.3%
Marble - 44.3%
Cartwright - 36.6%
 
Don't talk about Josh O like that. He saw gatens do it earlier and we are grooming him to be the next gatens. He needs to copy his every move.
 
CAARHawk said:
McCabe = Most underrated player on the team?
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I think so.

Hard worker, playing bigger than his height, very good outside shooter. Needs to rebound better, though, and try to stay out of foul trouble.

Stubbs is underrated too. I'm being serious.
 
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