So basically

hawkdrummer1 said:
I see 3 big yellow flags...most of which have been talked about above;

1. New center. a big wild card in a KFz offense that requires execution for even the most mundane plays
2. New linebackers. Parker's D has covered for a lot of KFz shortcomings. His scheme requires solid LB play.
3. Wadley. Yes we have talented guys in the fold, but he was a game-changer...quite literally.

7-5
Click to expand...

Wadley was definitely awesome. So were Ladell Betts, Fred Russell, and Shonn Greene. The seasons after those 3 graduated resulted in two 1st-place finishes in the B1G, one 2nd-place finish in the B1G, and three AP-top 10 finishes.

Now, the offense took a dip in 2 out of 3 of those cases, but somehow the team still managed to be successful. If it has happened before, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that it could happen again.

For those curious...
  • '01 with Betts (32.6 ppg); '02 post-Betts (37.2 ppg, Brad Banks effect)
  • '03 with Russell (28.7 ppg); '04 post-Russell (24.3 ppg)
  • '08 with Greene (29.0 ppg); '09 post-Greene (23.7 ppg)
 
CP87 said:
Wadley was definitely awesome. So were Ladell Betts, Fred Russell, and Shonn Greene. The seasons after those 3 graduated resulted in two 1st-place finishes in the B1G, one 2nd-place finish in the B1G, and three AP-top 10 finishes.

Now, the offense took a dip in 2 out of 3 of those cases, but somehow the team still managed to be successful. If it has happened before, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that it could happen again.

For those curious...
  • '01 with Betts (32.6 ppg); '02 post-Betts (37.2 ppg, Brad Banks effect)
  • '03 with Russell (28.7 ppg); '04 post-Russell (24.3 ppg)
  • '08 with Greene (29.0 ppg); '09 post-Greene (23.7 ppg)
Click to expand...


They were great backs, but Wadley saved games.
 
4thngoal said:
My only concern with the O is depth on the line and of course like most teams qb. If they can't field an extremely proficient offense with the guys we have I will be severely disappointed.
This offense should be able to hang with anybody in the nation. Hopefully all our new coaches are full of energy, because we need to push them all, but I would be more at ease knowing the second team is really fighting for the starting roles.

The defense is a little scary. By a little I mean maybe a 50/50 chance of being in the top half of the big. That is nothing to brag about. Fact that is scary. We have some pieces, but so many holes. If our defense can reload, it speaks volumes about the coaches and the players.
Because I don't think we have ever started a year with so much to do and fill on that side of the ball.
Click to expand...


I fully expect Iowa's offense to be explosive as always....ranking among the top 10-15 in scoring and yards...
 
Northern Illinois W - 66/33
Iowa State W - 60/40
Northern Iowa W - 85/15
Wisconsin L - 30/70
Off Week
@Minnesota W - 65/35
@Indiana W - 65/35
Maryland W - 60/40
@Penn State L - 35/65
@Purdue W - 60/40
Northwestern Even - 50/50
@Illinois W - 80/20
Nebraska W - 60/40

Five very closely matched games - 4 slightly favor Iowa
Northwestern
Purdue
Maryland
Iowa State
Nebraska

Significant advantage to one team - 3 favor Iowa
Penn State
Minnesota
Indiana
Northern Illinois

Decisive advantage to one team - 2 decisively favor Iowa
Wisconsin
Illinois
Northern Iowa

Most probable is seven or eight wins.
Winning at least one of Wisconsin/Penn State - 55%

Starting off with four home games, last of which is Wisconsin. They could get on a bit of a roll, or it could get ugly down the stretch if they don't take advantage early. They will need all the depth they can get, late in the season with all those away games. I hope the wheels stay on.
 
Last edited:
It is funny that all of the people that are excited about the offense must only be remembering the Ohio State game......and have forgotten about Wisconsin, Purdue, Mich St. It is the same offense as last year minus key pieces, I don't see them being better than last year. The defense may be better. I am going with 7-5 and a bowl win.
 
AreWeThereYet said:
Northern Illinois W - 66/33
Iowa State W - 60/40
Northern Iowa W - 85/15
Wisconsin L - 30/70
Off Week
@Minnesota W - 65/35
@Indiana W - 65/35
Maryland W - 60/40
@Penn State L - 35/65
@Purdue W - 60/40
Northwestern Even - 50/50
@Illinois W - 80/20
Nebraska W - 60/40

Five very closely matched games - 4 slightly favor Iowa
Northwestern
Purdue
Maryland
Iowa State
Nebraska

Significant advantage to one team - 3 favor Iowa
Penn State
Minnesota
Indiana
Northern Illinois

Decisive advantage to one team - 2 decisively favor Iowa
Wisconsin
Illinois
Northern Iowa

Most probable is seven or eight wins.
Winning at least one of Wisconsin/Penn State - 55%

Starting off with four home games, last of which is Wisconsin. They could get on a bit of a roll, or it could get ugly down the stretch if they don't take advantage early. They will need all the depth they can get, late in the season with all those away games. I hope the wheels stay on.
Click to expand...
I’ll take you up on that with a friendly wager.

6.5 wins excluding a bowl game, I’ll take the under. Loser uses a Nebraska avatar of the winner’s choice for two weeks.

I hope I lose.

Shake?
 
Fryowa said:
I’ll take you up on that with a friendly wager.

6.5 wins excluding a bowl game, I’ll take the under. Loser uses a Nebraska avatar of the winner’s choice for two weeks.

I hope I lose.

Shake?
Click to expand...

If that means I get to take 7 wins or more, you're on.

Just so it isn't a Northwestern avatar. Nebraska fans generally don't realize just how badly they've played against Iowa, and are amusing. Northwestern really chafes my ass.
 
Last edited:
4thngoal said:
I doubt it's that low. I over exaggerated it at 40, but averaging 24 and getting 11 wins may have been possible when our defense was our strength.
Our current defense has a whole lot to prove before I'll believe 24 gets it done.
Click to expand...

True. We do have some big shoes to fill. But if I think our DL will be really good and deep. Which may give the LBs time to develop and take pressure off the DBs. I have hope.
We had some real good defenses the last couple years, I hope we have transitioned from a re-build program to a re-load program. At least defensively.
 
thetrza said:
So basically its like that but actually its kinda like i don't know but still....
Click to expand...
It would be interesting to see what our points scored and points given up averages are for the last six or eight years or even ten years are. I'm pretty sure our offense will do a bit better and our defense will be lucky to stay at the average.
Is that blunt enough?
 
Last edited:
Some folks are assuming Maryland is a win. Not so fast. They were a Top 25 team with both their 1st AND 2nd string QBs, both of whom were hard to tackle and both of whom will be back. They didn’t become a mediocre team until the 3rd string and 4th string QBs were pressed into action.

I predict we will be underdogs to MD, WI and PSU. Evenly matched with jNU, ISU and Indiana. I like our chances vs ISU at Kinnick, though.
 
4thngoal said:
It would be interesting to see what our points scored and points given up averages are for the last six or eight years or even ten years are. I'm pretty sure our offense will do a bit better and our defense will be lucky to stay at the average.
Is that blunt enough?
Click to expand...

Started doing the last 6-8 years. Then decided to do all of Ferentz's tenure here.

Year Points For Points Against Record
2017 28.2 (66th) 19.9 (18th) 8-5
2016 24.9 (95th) 18.8 (13th) 8-5
2015 30.9 (53rd) 20.4 12-2
2014 28.2 (70th) 25.6 (51st) 7-6
2013 26.3 (81st) 18.9 (9th) 8-5
2012 19.3 (113th) 22.9 (33rd) 4-8
2011 27.5 (58th) 23.8 (46th) 7-6
2010 28.9 (49th) 17.0 (7th) 8-5
2009 23.2 (86th) 15.3 11-2
2008 30.3 (33rd) 13.0 9-4
2007 18.5 (111th) 18.8 (12th) 6-6
2006 23.8 (58th) 20.7 (45th) 6-7
2005 30.0 (37th) 20.0 (22nd) 7-5
2004 24.3 (70th) 17.6 10-2
2003 28.7 (41st) 16.2 10-3
2002 37.2 (7th) 19.7 11-2
2001 32.6 (23rd) 21.5 (32nd) 7-5
2000 16.9 (101st) 27.5 (76th) 3-9
1999 14.7 (105th) 31.5 (98th) 1-10

All stats are found at https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/iowa/
 
Knight78 said:
Started doing the last 6-8 years. Then decided to do all of Ferentz's tenure here.

Year Points For Points Against Record
2017 28.2 (66th) 19.9 (18th) 8-5
2016 24.9 (95th) 18.8 (13th) 8-5
2015 30.9 (53rd) 20.4 12-2
2014 28.2 (70th) 25.6 (51st) 7-6
2013 26.3 (81st) 18.9 (9th) 8-5
2012 19.3 (113th) 22.9 (33rd) 4-8
2011 27.5 (58th) 23.8 (46th) 7-6
2010 28.9 (49th) 17.0 (7th) 8-5
2009 23.2 (86th) 15.3 11-2
2008 30.3 (33rd) 13.0 9-4
2007 18.5 (111th) 18.8 (12th) 6-6
2006 23.8 (58th) 20.7 (45th) 6-7
2005 30.0 (37th) 20.0 (22nd) 7-5
2004 24.3 (70th) 17.6 10-2
2003 28.7 (41st) 16.2 10-3
2002 37.2 (7th) 19.7 11-2
2001 32.6 (23rd) 21.5 (32nd) 7-5
2000 16.9 (101st) 27.5 (76th) 3-9
1999 14.7 (105th) 31.5 (98th) 1-10

All stats are found at https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/iowa/
Click to expand...

Good work. Now all it needs is the turnovers for/against +or-
 
CP87 said:
Wadley was definitely awesome. So were Ladell Betts, Fred Russell, and Shonn Greene. The seasons after those 3 graduated resulted in two 1st-place finishes in the B1G, one 2nd-place finish in the B1G, and three AP-top 10 finishes.

Now, the offense took a dip in 2 out of 3 of those cases, but somehow the team still managed to be successful. If it has happened before, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that it could happen again.

For those curious...
  • '01 with Betts (32.6 ppg); '02 post-Betts (37.2 ppg, Brad Banks effect)
  • '03 with Russell (28.7 ppg); '04 post-Russell (24.3 ppg)
  • '08 with Greene (29.0 ppg); '09 post-Greene (23.7 ppg)
Click to expand...
I was surprised to see that our '09 post Greene team only managed 23.7 ppg and I'm thinking, how did we get to #4 in the nation?

Then I remembered what we lined up on the other side of the ball.
 
Knight78 said:
All stats are found at https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/iowa/
Click to expand...

Here you go

Year Points For -- Points Against -- Record - Turnover - Margin
2017 28.2 (66th) -- 19.9 (18th) -------- 8-5 ----- 26/19 ----- +7
2016 24.9 (95th) -- 18.8 (13th) -------- 8-5 ----- 18/12 ----- +6
2015 30.9 (53rd) -- 20.4 -----------------12-2 ----- 27/16 ----- +11
2014 28.2 (70th) -- 25.6 (51st) ------- 7-6 ----- 16/22 ------ -6
2013 26.3 (81st) -- 18.9 (9th) --------- 8-5 ----- 21/22 ----- -1
2012 19.3 (113th) - 22.9 (33rd) ------ 4-8 ----- 23/11 ------ +12
2011 27.5 (58th) -- 23.8 (46th) ------- 7-6 ----- 19/18 ----- +1
2010 28.9 (49th) -- 17.0 (7th) -------- 8-5 ----- 24/11 ---- +13
2009 23.2 (86th) -- 15.3 --------------- 11-2 ---- 30/28 ----- +2
2008 30.3 (33rd) -- 13.0 --------------- 9-4 ----- 32/24 ----- +8
2007 18.5 (111th) -- 18.8 (12th) ----- 6-6 ----- 21/13 ----- +8
2006 23.8 (58th) --- 20.7 (45th) ----- 6-7----- 20/31 ----- -11
2005 30.0 (37th) --- 20.0 (22nd) ---- 7-5 ----- 16/17 ----- -1
2004 24.3 (70th) -- 17.6 --------------- 10-2 ---- 32/19 ----- +13
2003 28.7 (41st) -- 16.2 --------------- 10-3 ----- 25/21---- +4
2002 37.2 (7th) ---- 19.7----------------11-2 ----- 31/16 ---- +15
2001 32.6 (23rd) --- 21.5 (32nd) ---- 7-5 ----- 21/21 ------ 0
2000 16.9 (101st) -- 27.5 (76th) ---- 3-9 ----- 17/20 ------ -3
1999 14.7 (105th) --31.5 (98th) ---- 1-10 ----- 13/10 ---- -4

Turnovers tabulated from three sources
Turnover (ratio) gained/lost
Turnover margin gained-lost
 
Last edited:
The last six years averages are 26.3 points scored and 21.08 points allowed.
Let the betting start on which side of the ball beats the averages and if they both can and do which side will have the greatest improvement on said averages.
 
Northside Hawk said:
I was surprised to see that our '09 post Greene team only managed 23.7 ppg and I'm thinking, how did we get to #4 in the nation?

Then I remembered what we lined up on the other side of the ball.
Click to expand...
15 average pa is pretty darn good!! Good enough for second in the above averages.

Personally I think if we can gain 3 in scoring and lose 3 in points against, in the six year average, we have a chance to win some games. 29 and 18 might get it done. Which is only one point more and one point less than last years 8-5 record. I think that is much easier for the offense to do. Which oddly enough 2010 we went about 29 and 18 and still went 8-5. Granted the numbers get skewed, because in reality we should be talking about only b10 games. That would give you a more refined number.
But dang I love those years when we are tight on defense and the number is down around 16 or so.
 
Last edited:
It's all about the 4th game of the year. We beat Wisconsin, we win the West. I know people are focusing on the losses (Wadley, Daniels, Welch) on offense...but come on...any year we have had 8 guys back on offense...typically bodes pretty well. Another year in BF's system...a more experienced QB with some moxie...and another year of higher end recruiting. If someone emerges (Smith / ISM) as a deep threat or a threat...you have the trifecta of weapons.

We have good RBs, great TEs, and if the WR position contributes a deep or speed threat...we will score points. It's possible we will have two 1st round offensive tackles starting and they are huge (320). We have a bevy of interior players that have been around too. If we have injuries to the OL...we could be screwed though. We need to stay healthy there.

Phil Parker with two or three position groups that have the potential to be very good, will be fine. We have alot of athletes on that side of the ball.
 
AreWeThereYet said:
Here you go

Year Points For -- Points Against -- Record - Turnover - Margin
2017 28.2 (66th) -- 19.9 (18th) -------- 8-5 ----- 26/19 ----- +7
2016 24.9 (95th) -- 18.8 (13th) -------- 8-5 ----- 18/12 ----- +6
2015 30.9 (53rd) -- 20.4 -----------------12-2 ----- 27/16 ----- +11
2014 28.2 (70th) -- 25.6 (51st) ------- 7-6 ----- 16/22 ------ -6
2013 26.3 (81st) -- 18.9 (9th) --------- 8-5 ----- 21/22 ----- -1
2012 19.3 (113th) - 22.9 (33rd) ------ 4-8 ----- 23/11 ------ +12
2011 27.5 (58th) -- 23.8 (46th) ------- 7-6 ----- 19/18 ----- +1
2010 28.9 (49th) -- 17.0 (7th) -------- 8-5 ----- 24/11 ---- +13
2009 23.2 (86th) -- 15.3 --------------- 11-2 ---- 30/28 ----- +2
2008 30.3 (33rd) -- 13.0 --------------- 9-4 ----- 32/24 ----- +8
2007 18.5 (111th) -- 18.8 (12th) ----- 6-6 ----- 21/13 ----- +8
2006 23.8 (58th) --- 20.7 (45th) ----- 6-7----- 20/31 ----- -11
2005 30.0 (37th) --- 20.0 (22nd) ---- 7-5 ----- 16/17 ----- -1
2004 24.3 (70th) -- 17.6 --------------- 10-2 ---- 32/19 ----- +13
2003 28.7 (41st) -- 16.2 --------------- 10-3 ----- 25/21---- +4
2002 37.2 (7th) ---- 19.7----------------11-2 ----- 31/16 ---- +15
2001 32.6 (23rd) --- 21.5 (32nd) ---- 7-5 ----- 21/21 ------ 0
2000 16.9 (101st) -- 27.5 (76th) ---- 3-9 ----- 17/20 ------ -3
1999 14.7 (105th) --31.5 (98th) ---- 1-10 ----- 13/10 ---- -4

Turnovers tabulated from three sources
Turnover (ratio) gained/lost
Turnover margin gained-lost
Click to expand...
Doesn't surprise me that most of our best turnover margins correlated with our best Ferentz era seasons.

Two surprises. We were plus 12 in 2012 and had one of our worst seasons, albeit with our offensive line wiped out.

And 28 TO's committed in 2009. Never would have guessed it or the meager plus two margin.

I do remember Stanzi throwing five picks into the wind in that infamous Indiana game.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Share this page

Top