So according to KenPom, we are the "luckiest" P6 team in basketball

Ping pong is another one where sometimes it's like I can see a line drawn from the ball to the exact spot I want to hit it on the table. Then other nights I have trouble keeping it in play. I guess it's more of a game to game thing more so than a night to night thing. But one thing's for sure, at times where I can perfectly visualize my shot, my odds of success are way better than they are during the times I can't . A player's overall skill level and consistency level is directly related to how often he's "feeling it".
 
CP87 said:
I think it is mostly based upon evidence that a team's records in close games seems to be pretty random from year to year. If team A wins 80% of their close games one year while team B wins 20% of their close games, and they both bring back the same players and coaches, team A should also win more close games the next year if they were truly "clutch." I don't think the evidence really bares that out. Over time, almost all teams are 50/50 over a large enough sample of close games.

There are outliers, however. One that comes to mind is the Memphis Grizzlies for about 5+ years during their grit-and-grind glory days, they were way better than expected in close games. I think the T-Wolves had a similar stretch around the same time where they were leaning on young players and they were way worse than normal in close games. Who knows, "Lucky" might really mean you have a bunch of experienced guys who have been there before and are not overwhelmed by the moment.

If you want to dive into some statistical evidence refuting the existence of "clutch hitting" in baseball, here you go:

http://research.sabr.org/journals/the-statistical-mirage-of-clutch-hitting
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Not Iowa in the Fran era. His teams have been unclutch year after year after year after year. Which is a huge reason why so many have had it with him, and are looking upon this season with such trepidation.

Now this year is different. You could see it New York, or against Iowa State at the latest. And I have enjoyed the run and will keep enjoying it. Because I don't think we're done yet.

Now to the thread title. If ever, EVER a program was overdue for correction in luck, it was Iowa. KenPom bares out what the eyes have seen. We have been in the bottom 10% of over 350 teams in the country in KenPom luck four of Fran's first eight years. Don't bother figuring out the odds for that being truly chance, because they don't exist. KenPom was invented in 2002. We have been negative in luck most of the years since. I don't need KenPom to tell me many of Davis teams were unlucky, as well as Lute's. Bottom line. I am going to enjoy this run as long as it lasts. We have some fearless players out there who are gaining confidence by the week.
 
PCHawk said:
Ping pong is another one where sometimes it's like I can see a line drawn from the ball to the exact spot I want to hit it on the table. Then other nights I have trouble keeping it in play. I guess it's more of a game to game thing more so than a night to night thing. But one thing's for sure, at times where I can perfectly visualize my shot, my odds of success are way better than they are during the times I can't . A player's overall skill level and consistency level is directly related to how often he's "feeling it".
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I agree, I have had the experience in BB. All of a sudden you feel like you have absolute control over everything happening on the court. It is hard for someone to convince you that the feeling doesn't exist and doesn't matter.

But to play the Devil's advocate, our brains are constantly searching for patterns. We are really good at seeing some sort of random, statistical aberration and assigning some sort of meaning to it. So we see someone make a few big plays in a row in an important situation, and instead of recognizing it as randomness, we say that person is clutch. From then on, every time it is repeated, it confirms our original assessment, and every time he doesn't come through we ignore/dismiss it (confirmation bias).

That is how Kobe gets billed as the perfect example of clutchness, even though most analysis deems him about average in clutch situations, and usually decidedly below LeBron (depending on which specific stats you look at):

https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2018/10/23/18013682/kobe-bryant-lebron-james-stats-free-throws

https://www.libertyballers.com/2012...t-dwyane-wade-clutch-nba-playoffs-4th-quarter
 
CP87 said:
I agree, I have had the experience in BB. All of a sudden you feel like you have absolute control over everything happening on the court. It is hard for someone to convince you that the feeling doesn't exist and doesn't matter.

But to play the Devil's advocate, our brains are constantly searching for patterns. We are really good at seeing some sort of random, statistical aberration and assigning some sort of meaning to it. So we see someone make a few big plays in a row in an important situation, and instead of recognizing it as randomness, we say that person is clutch. From then on, every time it is repeated, it confirms our original assessment, and every time he doesn't come through we ignore/dismiss it (confirmation bias).

That is how Kobe gets billed as the perfect example of clutchness, even though most analysis deems him about average in clutch situations, and usually decidedly below LeBron (depending on which specific stats you look at):

https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2018/10/23/18013682/kobe-bryant-lebron-james-stats-free-throws

https://www.libertyballers.com/2012...t-dwyane-wade-clutch-nba-playoffs-4th-quarter
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I agree with you in the sense that people look for patterns that may not be there. But all that means is that people can wrongfully label players as clutch or un-clutch. It doesn't disprove that a clutch factor exists.
 
CP87 said:
It is those same people that argue there is no such thing as "the hot hand." And evidence supports that, just because you have made 3 shots in a row, you don't have an increased likelihood of making that 4th shot (compared to missing 3 shots in a row). But all of these things are so hard to tease out; that "hot" shooter is actually more likely to attempt a more difficult 4th shot, so making a more difficult shot at the same rate might really indicate that he is "hot."

But then you get back to the people who have actually played BB, and they will all recall a time that they just couldn't miss for an extended period. Things like this are often too complex to be able to definitively prove, but that doesn't mean they don't exist. There is a middle ground where we can be informed by the stats but not let them entirely run the decision-making process. The human brain is fallible and susceptible to biases and all sorts of reasoning flaws, but it is still the most complex and nuanced computer available.
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Matt Gatens says hello! There are literally times as an athlete that you just "know" and you turn out to be correct.
 
Robowe said:
Reggie was, and always will be, Mr October. 1978 young Bob Welch gets him to end Game 2 (1st clip). However, Game 6, Reggie comes back to take him deep (2nd clip).


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if an entire sport says you're clutch in October and gives you a nickname "Mr. October" then maybe there's something to this clutch thing. i didn't necessarily like ol' Mr. October at the time, but I've come to respect how he was the man in October.
 
BryceC said:
Correct.



Nope, last year has no bearing on this year.

"What do all the columns mean?

The new ones are Cons (Consistency) and Luck. The easiest one to understand is Luck, which is the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record using the correlated gaussian method. The luck factor has nothing to do with the rating calculation, but a team that is very lucky (positive numbers) will tend to be rated lower by my system than their record would suggest."
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For those interested in results in close games and "luck", read the article (23 years old) linked in @BryceC 's post. it is a good one. The author also talks a bit about underdogs "increasing the variance" of their performance (i.e. choosing the David strategy), explaining how even if this decreases your mean performance level, you can increase your odds by increasing your variability.
 
ArvadaHawk said:
if an entire sport says you're clutch in October and gives you a nickname "Mr. October" then maybe there's something to this clutch thing. i didn't necessarily like ol' Mr. October at the time, but I've come to respect how he was the man in October.
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Reggie could get to a high inside pitch as well as any left handed hitter I've ever seen, although I've been told Ted Williams could hit those as well. That's the hole for most left handed batters, whose bats usually aren't quick enough to get up there. Not Reggie. And while he struck out on more on his share, when he caught up to one and got his bat on top of it it could could go 500 feet. That shot was completely out of Dodger Stadium, over the second tier of the bullpen. The only other batter I ever saw do that at Dodger Stadium was Dave Kingman.
 
Northside Hawk said:
Reggie could get to a high inside pitch as well as any left handed hitter I've ever seen, although I've been told Ted Williams could hit those as well. That's the hole for most left handed batters, whose bats usually aren't quick enough to get up there. Not Reggie. And while he struck out on more on his share, when he caught up to one and got his bat on top of it it could could go 500 feet. That shot was completely out of Dodger Stadium, over the second tier of the bullpen. The only other batter I ever saw do that at Dodger Stadium was Dave Kingman.
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LOL...King Kong. Another apt nickname.
 
How does this luck thing work? Does a 20% 3pt shooter who was 0 for his last 9 draining 4 threes in the 1H constitute as lucky? Does Baker’s front iron-backboard-rim-in three count as lucky?

Okay yes Iowa got lucky that shot went in, but we were the better team and won the game.
 
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