JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
It’s the bye week. What do you do on bye weeks?
Me, I try to spend a little more time with the family at nights, we’re taking a trip to Kansas City this weekend to see some family and will stop off a night at the Great Wolf Lodge. I hope to catch some football on Saturday, but I won’t push my luck.
I’ve spent a great deal of time thinking about the Iowa football program this week, still a bit stupefied at where we are in the 2015 season, or rather, where Iowa is.
7-0 and ranked 12th in the nation. For me, it’s truly unbelievable in the literal sense of the word; I cannot believe they are where they are and had you suggested this scenario to me before the season began and said you’d wager $100 on it, I would have taken you up on it after trying to talk you out of such a silly notion.
At 44 and after 35 years of watching football, I am not surprised by macro level things all that often. This? This is a surprise. A very pleasant surprise. The 2009 team starting 9-0? That was far more believable for me than this year’s Iowa team starting 7-0. The 1985 team starting 7-0? Given the hoopla surrounding that team before the year began, going all the way back to Chuck Long’s post 1984 season and pre 1985 season announcement that he would be returning for his final year at Iowa and what they had coming back, 7-0 felt right, it felt predestined. Heck, I remember hearing the announcement on the radio while in P.E. class in the Hoover Elementary Gymnasium. It was roller skating week. I recall where the radio was on the bleachers as my P.E. coach Jim Wheeler sat listening to it.
This year’s 7-0? It’s more surprising to me than Iowa’s 2002 season. The program was on the rise then, 2001 felt like a bit of a launching point. While I didn’t pick Iowa to win 11 games before that season (I had them at 8-4) the success they enjoyed seemed less surprising than what we are seeing right now from the 2015 team.
It’s these surprises that are the most enjoyable in life and why this season has been so much fun.
There’s still a long way to go this year, but for Iowa to have an historic season, they don’t have to win 12 in a row now, they only have to win five in a row. I am not saying that will happen, but 5-0 is easier than 7-0.
All of this has me thinking back to this past offseason and how long it was, how tedious it was. It has me shaking my head in how Kirk Ferentz looked in the mirror and made some changes. If you haven’t listened to Mike Hlas’ outstanding podcast with Brian Ferentz from Wednesday, you should. Brian laid out some of think thinking after the ‘Hawkslayer’ bowl as he called it. I wrote about how rare this type of turnaround is for a successful head coach or person in power back in late September. I could probably add several more paragraphs to that now.
So all of this and some bye week time on my hands led me to looking at Iowa’s depth chart. It has led me to looking optimistically at the future of the Iowa football program for the first time in…well, about a year, since the second half meltdown against Nebraska one year ago. At that time, I didn’t believe Ferentz ‘would’ make the changes and tweaks necessary to turn things around. When he began to drop hints that he was doing just that, I was dubious they would work as my opinions to the talent on the roster and all of the enormous question marks which existed were not not overly optimistic. I remember saying that this team looked like it had 6-6 talent but a schedule that might allow them to get to 8-4, but so I went with 7-5.
Swing and a miss…perhaps the worst swing and miss of my career, and I couldn’t be happier about that.
So I look to the future in this space today…what about next year? Can Iowa keep this positive ball rolling? They have the new and shiny facility that allows them to be so much more efficient in their training and development and should translate into more success on the recruiting trails. They have a reinvigorated staff and a roster full of players who are seeing amazing results and believing in the new message that has been preached since January.
The rest of this item will take a look at what Iowa has coming back next year and where they will need some help. If you feel this is too early to undertake such an exercise, you’re free to close your browser window right now. This is what I do during the bye week; I write things that I find interesting and this is one of them. This will not be as ‘deep a dive’ as I will take in the offseason.
OFFENSIVE LINE: Iowa will lose Austin Blythe and Jordan Walsh. Those are two huge losses, as each is playing at an All Big Ten level thus far this year. Losing an experienced center is never a fun thing and Blythe has been among Iowa’s best at the position in a long line of very good centers. Walsh has been a revelation this year. He’s grown from an inconsistent player who looked like he’d never reach his potential into a dominant force this year.
However, the cupboard will not be bare. Iowa will return an impressive amount of experience and this unit should be a strength heading into 2016. James Daniels is a budding star. Cole Croston, Boone Myers and Ike Boettger are getting valuable reps this year at tackle and each has performed well at times and their struggles should be fewer and farther between. Sean Welsh stepped in this past week at right tackle and did a solid job when Iowa really needed it; he has two more years of eligibility. There are other names who will improve and there are several freshmen currently redshirting who will stick their noses in the mix.
OFFENSIVE SKILL POSITIONS: CJ Beathard has one more year to play and I don’t need to elaborate on how fantastic that is. I think Tyler Wiegers is a competent backup who could lead the team if called upon. Jordan Canzeri will graduate, but Iowa will return Leshun Daniels, Akrum Wadley and Derrick Mitchell. There are some exciting commitments doing great things, including Wisconsin prep Toren Young who has over 2,000 yards already for his high school team and has been a human highlight film (stay away, Badgers!). This is a very, very exciting backfield.
Iowa will lose Tevaun Smith and Jacob Hillyer, but Matt Vandeberg and Jerminic Smith return. Adrian Falconer should be ready to make contributions and Jay Scheel still has plenty of time to see the field, plus a handful of other young players who will be ready to fight for time; this is workable. Iowa will lose Jake Duzey andHenry Kreiger-Coble at tight end. George Kittle returns and Jameer Outsey will have an entire offseason to work at that position.
Iowa’s fullbacks have been doing such a fantastic job this year in the Hawkeyes running game. Both Macon Plewa and Adam Cox will have expired their eligibility at the end of this season.
All in all, there is a good deal of talent that will return on offense and far fewer questions marks heading into next year than we had heading into this year.
DEFENSIVE FRONT SEVEN: Life without Drew Ott began last week and Nate Meier is also a senior. Ott’s loss will be felt the rest of this year, but the reps that freshman Parker Hesse is getting this year will pay huge dividends next year. Matt Nelson is also a freshman this year and he will see more snaps because of Ott’s absence. Iowa is slated to return both of its starting defensive tackles in Jaleel Johnson and Nathan Bazata. We’e all aware of the excellent season Johnson has been having but Bazata’s contributions have been impressive to me as well. I don’t ‘think’ Johnson would turn pro, but he is playing at a very high level right now, so while I doubt it, it’s not entirely out of the question. Faith Ekakatie may have some position flexibility as he began as a defensive end. This group looks have a decent bead on run support but will need some improvement in the pass rush, save Johnson.
As for linebacker, the Hawkeyes have a lot of options. Ben Niemann and Josey Jewell are just sophomores, as is Niemann’s backup Bo Bower. Iowa will lose seniors Cole Fisher and Travis Perry and Fisher is having a fantastic and somewhat out of nowhere senior campaign. Aaron Mends will be a third year sophomore and Jack Hockaday is playing on special teams as a true freshman. The future for this group is pretty exiting and by and large, the front seven for next year should be pretty salty and another good to great run stopping unit might be in the offing.
SECONDARY: Iowa will likely see some key losses in this group. Jordan Lomax is the lone senior of the four, but Desmond King looks like he is playing his way into the NFL Draft’s first or second round. Miles Taylor will be a better safety next year than this year and Greg Mabin will return for his final season with a lot of experience under his belt. Maurice Fleming also has another year of eligibility and Joshua Jackson has seen a lot of time this year as well; those two would seem the likely choices right now to replace King, if King chooses to turn pro. If King does return to Iowa it would lift the entire defense up a notch as teams are loathe to throw to his side of the field and he is an exceptional open field tackler.
All in all, the 2016 Iowa defense appears to have a solid foundation and if there is a drop off next year, it may not be a large one.
SPECIALISTS: If King leaves, that will leave a hole in the return game. Punter Dillon Kidd and placekicker Mashall Koehn will not have any more eligibility and their losses will be significant. Koehn is also the #2 punter on the team this year so Iowa will have a brand new adventure at that position, which is such a valuable extension of the defense as it relates to hidden yards. Kidd has been performing at an All Big Ten level this year and Koehn has an enormous leg and we’ll never forget his boot against Pitt. Mick Ellis is redshirting this year and will be the heir apparent at placekicker.
On the whole, I think it’s safe to say Iowa will have fewer questions heading into next season than they do this season, barring any injuries the rest of this year or next spring and unforeseeable attrition.
That said, there is one final factor to consider and it’s a bear; The Schedule.
Iowa will have four home conference games and five road conference games as the Big Ten begins playing a nine game league schedule. Here is Iowa’s slate for 2016 (screen shot from hawkeyesports.com):
North Dakota State is an FCS Power. Iowa’s road schedule isn’t a murder’s row, but it’s still five Big Ten road games. Michigan returns to Iowa’s schedule and that will be an old-fashioned rock fight. Wisconsin and Nebraska will be at Kinnick and both of those games will be challenging.
I don’t work at the Iowa ticket office, but this is a schedule full of home games that should have a few folks thinking about getting their season tickets back. Iowa still misses Ohio State and Michigan State in 2016, but both those programs return to Iowa’s schedule in 2017, along with Penn State as their third crossover game from the East.
So yes, there is a lot of work yet to do this season. This was not an exercise in wishing that away; these remaining five games are precious commodities and given the amazing start to this season, each one could be worth a lifetime of memories.
However, it’s nice to peak ahead to the future, because all of the sudden that’s cool again.
Me, I try to spend a little more time with the family at nights, we’re taking a trip to Kansas City this weekend to see some family and will stop off a night at the Great Wolf Lodge. I hope to catch some football on Saturday, but I won’t push my luck.
I’ve spent a great deal of time thinking about the Iowa football program this week, still a bit stupefied at where we are in the 2015 season, or rather, where Iowa is.
7-0 and ranked 12th in the nation. For me, it’s truly unbelievable in the literal sense of the word; I cannot believe they are where they are and had you suggested this scenario to me before the season began and said you’d wager $100 on it, I would have taken you up on it after trying to talk you out of such a silly notion.
At 44 and after 35 years of watching football, I am not surprised by macro level things all that often. This? This is a surprise. A very pleasant surprise. The 2009 team starting 9-0? That was far more believable for me than this year’s Iowa team starting 7-0. The 1985 team starting 7-0? Given the hoopla surrounding that team before the year began, going all the way back to Chuck Long’s post 1984 season and pre 1985 season announcement that he would be returning for his final year at Iowa and what they had coming back, 7-0 felt right, it felt predestined. Heck, I remember hearing the announcement on the radio while in P.E. class in the Hoover Elementary Gymnasium. It was roller skating week. I recall where the radio was on the bleachers as my P.E. coach Jim Wheeler sat listening to it.
This year’s 7-0? It’s more surprising to me than Iowa’s 2002 season. The program was on the rise then, 2001 felt like a bit of a launching point. While I didn’t pick Iowa to win 11 games before that season (I had them at 8-4) the success they enjoyed seemed less surprising than what we are seeing right now from the 2015 team.
It’s these surprises that are the most enjoyable in life and why this season has been so much fun.
There’s still a long way to go this year, but for Iowa to have an historic season, they don’t have to win 12 in a row now, they only have to win five in a row. I am not saying that will happen, but 5-0 is easier than 7-0.
All of this has me thinking back to this past offseason and how long it was, how tedious it was. It has me shaking my head in how Kirk Ferentz looked in the mirror and made some changes. If you haven’t listened to Mike Hlas’ outstanding podcast with Brian Ferentz from Wednesday, you should. Brian laid out some of think thinking after the ‘Hawkslayer’ bowl as he called it. I wrote about how rare this type of turnaround is for a successful head coach or person in power back in late September. I could probably add several more paragraphs to that now.
So all of this and some bye week time on my hands led me to looking at Iowa’s depth chart. It has led me to looking optimistically at the future of the Iowa football program for the first time in…well, about a year, since the second half meltdown against Nebraska one year ago. At that time, I didn’t believe Ferentz ‘would’ make the changes and tweaks necessary to turn things around. When he began to drop hints that he was doing just that, I was dubious they would work as my opinions to the talent on the roster and all of the enormous question marks which existed were not not overly optimistic. I remember saying that this team looked like it had 6-6 talent but a schedule that might allow them to get to 8-4, but so I went with 7-5.
Swing and a miss…perhaps the worst swing and miss of my career, and I couldn’t be happier about that.
So I look to the future in this space today…what about next year? Can Iowa keep this positive ball rolling? They have the new and shiny facility that allows them to be so much more efficient in their training and development and should translate into more success on the recruiting trails. They have a reinvigorated staff and a roster full of players who are seeing amazing results and believing in the new message that has been preached since January.
The rest of this item will take a look at what Iowa has coming back next year and where they will need some help. If you feel this is too early to undertake such an exercise, you’re free to close your browser window right now. This is what I do during the bye week; I write things that I find interesting and this is one of them. This will not be as ‘deep a dive’ as I will take in the offseason.
OFFENSIVE LINE: Iowa will lose Austin Blythe and Jordan Walsh. Those are two huge losses, as each is playing at an All Big Ten level thus far this year. Losing an experienced center is never a fun thing and Blythe has been among Iowa’s best at the position in a long line of very good centers. Walsh has been a revelation this year. He’s grown from an inconsistent player who looked like he’d never reach his potential into a dominant force this year.
However, the cupboard will not be bare. Iowa will return an impressive amount of experience and this unit should be a strength heading into 2016. James Daniels is a budding star. Cole Croston, Boone Myers and Ike Boettger are getting valuable reps this year at tackle and each has performed well at times and their struggles should be fewer and farther between. Sean Welsh stepped in this past week at right tackle and did a solid job when Iowa really needed it; he has two more years of eligibility. There are other names who will improve and there are several freshmen currently redshirting who will stick their noses in the mix.
OFFENSIVE SKILL POSITIONS: CJ Beathard has one more year to play and I don’t need to elaborate on how fantastic that is. I think Tyler Wiegers is a competent backup who could lead the team if called upon. Jordan Canzeri will graduate, but Iowa will return Leshun Daniels, Akrum Wadley and Derrick Mitchell. There are some exciting commitments doing great things, including Wisconsin prep Toren Young who has over 2,000 yards already for his high school team and has been a human highlight film (stay away, Badgers!). This is a very, very exciting backfield.
Iowa will lose Tevaun Smith and Jacob Hillyer, but Matt Vandeberg and Jerminic Smith return. Adrian Falconer should be ready to make contributions and Jay Scheel still has plenty of time to see the field, plus a handful of other young players who will be ready to fight for time; this is workable. Iowa will lose Jake Duzey andHenry Kreiger-Coble at tight end. George Kittle returns and Jameer Outsey will have an entire offseason to work at that position.
Iowa’s fullbacks have been doing such a fantastic job this year in the Hawkeyes running game. Both Macon Plewa and Adam Cox will have expired their eligibility at the end of this season.
All in all, there is a good deal of talent that will return on offense and far fewer questions marks heading into next year than we had heading into this year.
DEFENSIVE FRONT SEVEN: Life without Drew Ott began last week and Nate Meier is also a senior. Ott’s loss will be felt the rest of this year, but the reps that freshman Parker Hesse is getting this year will pay huge dividends next year. Matt Nelson is also a freshman this year and he will see more snaps because of Ott’s absence. Iowa is slated to return both of its starting defensive tackles in Jaleel Johnson and Nathan Bazata. We’e all aware of the excellent season Johnson has been having but Bazata’s contributions have been impressive to me as well. I don’t ‘think’ Johnson would turn pro, but he is playing at a very high level right now, so while I doubt it, it’s not entirely out of the question. Faith Ekakatie may have some position flexibility as he began as a defensive end. This group looks have a decent bead on run support but will need some improvement in the pass rush, save Johnson.
As for linebacker, the Hawkeyes have a lot of options. Ben Niemann and Josey Jewell are just sophomores, as is Niemann’s backup Bo Bower. Iowa will lose seniors Cole Fisher and Travis Perry and Fisher is having a fantastic and somewhat out of nowhere senior campaign. Aaron Mends will be a third year sophomore and Jack Hockaday is playing on special teams as a true freshman. The future for this group is pretty exiting and by and large, the front seven for next year should be pretty salty and another good to great run stopping unit might be in the offing.
SECONDARY: Iowa will likely see some key losses in this group. Jordan Lomax is the lone senior of the four, but Desmond King looks like he is playing his way into the NFL Draft’s first or second round. Miles Taylor will be a better safety next year than this year and Greg Mabin will return for his final season with a lot of experience under his belt. Maurice Fleming also has another year of eligibility and Joshua Jackson has seen a lot of time this year as well; those two would seem the likely choices right now to replace King, if King chooses to turn pro. If King does return to Iowa it would lift the entire defense up a notch as teams are loathe to throw to his side of the field and he is an exceptional open field tackler.
All in all, the 2016 Iowa defense appears to have a solid foundation and if there is a drop off next year, it may not be a large one.
SPECIALISTS: If King leaves, that will leave a hole in the return game. Punter Dillon Kidd and placekicker Mashall Koehn will not have any more eligibility and their losses will be significant. Koehn is also the #2 punter on the team this year so Iowa will have a brand new adventure at that position, which is such a valuable extension of the defense as it relates to hidden yards. Kidd has been performing at an All Big Ten level this year and Koehn has an enormous leg and we’ll never forget his boot against Pitt. Mick Ellis is redshirting this year and will be the heir apparent at placekicker.
On the whole, I think it’s safe to say Iowa will have fewer questions heading into next season than they do this season, barring any injuries the rest of this year or next spring and unforeseeable attrition.
That said, there is one final factor to consider and it’s a bear; The Schedule.
Iowa will have four home conference games and five road conference games as the Big Ten begins playing a nine game league schedule. Here is Iowa’s slate for 2016 (screen shot from hawkeyesports.com):
North Dakota State is an FCS Power. Iowa’s road schedule isn’t a murder’s row, but it’s still five Big Ten road games. Michigan returns to Iowa’s schedule and that will be an old-fashioned rock fight. Wisconsin and Nebraska will be at Kinnick and both of those games will be challenging.I don’t work at the Iowa ticket office, but this is a schedule full of home games that should have a few folks thinking about getting their season tickets back. Iowa still misses Ohio State and Michigan State in 2016, but both those programs return to Iowa’s schedule in 2017, along with Penn State as their third crossover game from the East.
So yes, there is a lot of work yet to do this season. This was not an exercise in wishing that away; these remaining five games are precious commodities and given the amazing start to this season, each one could be worth a lifetime of memories.
However, it’s nice to peak ahead to the future, because all of the sudden that’s cool again.
