Scenarios and Odds for B1G West

rollingthunder said:
Can someone translate that into basic English?

What the hell is it supposed to represent?
Click to expand...

Nice. Each one of them is a different scenario for remaining games in the West division. The far right column would be the diversion winner if said scenario on the left were true.
 
I hate to be negative but unfortunately I no longer have any faith that Iowa has even a remote chance of pulling off a couple of miracles, so I care a lot less about who wins the West right now than I did a week ago.
 
Sparky said:
Nice. Each one of them is a different scenario for remaining games in the West division. The far right column would be the diversion winner if said scenario on the right were true.
Click to expand...

When all said and done Iowa has a 3.96% percent chance of winning the West.

Wisconsin - 45.95%
Nebraska - 43.99%
Minnesota- 6.01%
Iowa - 3.96%
 
We win out and we very likely win the West. The only way we don't is if Minny wins two more games and that's not likely since they have tOSU, Nebraska and Wiscy left.
 
The entire thing is mostly pointless from an Iowa perspective. Any possible scenario of Iowa winning requires a sweep of both Wisc and Neb. What happens in the other games is mostly irrelevant.

Of particular (and somewhat surprising) note is that there appear to be a few scenarios where Iowa can sweep the last 3 games and still not win the division. Those would include Minn sweeping Neb and Wisc. Even with an OSU loss, Iowa and Minn finish tied at 6-2, with Wisc and Neb both finishing 5-3 by losing to us and Minn. Other scenarios involve Minn beating OSU, but that ain't gonna happen.

There does not appear to be any scenario where Iowa can win without sweeping all three games.
 
Sparky said:
When all said and done Iowa has a 3.96% percent chance of winning the West.

Wisconsin - 45.95%
Nebraska - 43.99%
Minnesota- 6.01%
Iowa - 3.96%
Click to expand...

EDIT, based on the FIRST link, which assumes each team has 50% chance to win, its more like

Minn 44/128 = 34%
Neb 40/128 = 31%
Wisc 35/128 = 27%
Iowa 9/128 = 7%




Edit: I realize now Sparky's e numbers came from the 2nd link, which takes into account the odds of each team winning. For example, Minnesota does not have a 50% chance to beat OSU.
 
Last edited:
DJL said:
I hate to be negative but unfortunately I no longer have any faith that Iowa has even a remote chance of pulling off a couple of miracles, so I care a lot less about who wins the West right now than I did a week ago.
Click to expand...
I just posted in terms of how close the West is at the moment.. However, it will ultimately come down to Neb and Wisconsin IMO.
 
Numbers don't gauge the poor angles, poor tackling, checkdowns, heart, or leadership deficiency.

This team may beat ILL because of the fear of God KF put in them this week. I think it's a struggle and a toss-up in that I have no idea what kind of team will show up.

A loss to ILL would be horrible from perspective and recruiting and probably the proverbial downhill snowball. I hate the idea of that happening.
 
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