You could be right but how would you explain the Colgate game?
I know what you're saying though. A prohibitive favorite is sometimes most vulnerable in their first round game, which is why they get upset once in a while. In 1992 Duke had a surprisingly difficult time shaking Campbell in round 1. Then they came out against us in round two and had us down 25 at the half. It was humiliating. Laettner was chirping at Chris Street in the first ninety seconds of the game and their fans at halftime were chanting "Campbell's better!" Tennessee is more than capable of laying a similiar beating on us.
Duke would eventually go on to win the national Championship that year, beating the Fab five Michigan team.