Sagarin Predictions

C

cincyhawk

Well-Known Member
Iowa has a 69% chance to win this game - that's the lowest chance of any AP ranked favorite in his predictions this week.

Hawkeyes have to come to play. I think this is one of the most complete teams through two games Iowa has ever fielded. Iowa State also has a really legitimate P5 team this year.

I think they were better last year, but Purdy hadn't won the QB spot yet when Iowa played them.

Mike Rose and their NT are dangerous, mean, up the middle playmakers on D, and Iowa has a new guard and new center this year. Iowa hasn't shown a dominating interior run game yet, and there will be some chaos in the backfield caused by those two players that will disrupt drives, cause turnovers, and force more iso than even Iowa wants to run. Stanley hasn't shown the ability to throw between the linebacker and in front of the safeties at all this year, and is not mobile. Rose is going to come on blitz after blitz. There aren't 30 points to be had in this game. If Iowa's slot receivers and Stanley can't take advantage of that portion of the field, Iowa will lose this game as ISU will put 6 and 7 guys into the pass and run rush, outnumbering any protection Iowa can field. UNI neutralized this with a mobile QB and a great TE. Iowa has neither.

Purdy can run. He's exactly the kind of QB that Purdue and Northwestern have given Phil Parker's D fits in the past. Last year, the CASH was there to help out with that threat. That guy is playing on Sundays now. Hakeem Butler and the lizard are gone. Iowa's secondary is a little banged up. The DL isn't as long now that Nelson is gone, leaving just a little bigger of a window to throw through. OLB haven't had to cover decent receivers while keeping their eyes in the backfield. Purdy can make all the throws, but it's going to be a big week for Stone at SS. If he can tackle Purdy in space, and the backers can make the correct reads and drop into coverage, Iowa can hold ISU below 20 in this game.

Special teams advantage goes to Iowa. If the Hawks can keep the game boring and based on field position, that will lead to at least 6 points.

Those six points could be huge. The over-under is 42. I think Iowa wins by 5 in Ames, but never really gets comfortable: 22 - 17.
 
cincyhawk said:
Iowa has a 69% chance to win this game - that's the lowest chance of any AP ranked favorite in his predictions this week.

Hawkeyes have to come to play. I think this is one of the most complete teams through two games Iowa has ever fielded. Iowa State also has a really legitimate P5 team this year.

I think they were better last year, but Purdy hadn't won the QB spot yet when Iowa played them.

Mike Rose and their NT are dangerous, mean, up the middle playmakers on D, and Iowa has a new guard and new center this year. Iowa hasn't shown a dominating interior run game yet, and there will be some chaos in the backfield caused by those two players that will disrupt drives, cause turnovers, and force more iso than even Iowa wants to run. Stanley hasn't shown the ability to throw between the linebacker and in front of the safeties at all this year, and is not mobile. Rose is going to come on blitz after blitz. There aren't 30 points to be had in this game. If Iowa's slot receivers and Stanley can't take advantage of that portion of the field, Iowa will lose this game as ISU will put 6 and 7 guys into the pass and run rush, outnumbering any protection Iowa can field. UNI neutralized this with a mobile QB and a great TE. Iowa has neither.

Purdy can run. He's exactly the kind of QB that Purdue and Northwestern have given Phil Parker's D fits in the past. Last year, the CASH was there to help out with that threat. That guy is playing on Sundays now. Hakeem Butler and the lizard are gone. Iowa's secondary is a little banged up. The DL isn't as long now that Nelson is gone, leaving just a little bigger of a window to throw through. OLB haven't had to cover decent receivers while keeping their eyes in the backfield. Purdy can make all the throws, but it's going to be a big week for Stone at SS. If he can tackle Purdy in space, and the backers can make the correct reads and drop into coverage, Iowa can hold ISU below 20 in this game.

Special teams advantage goes to Iowa. If the Hawks can keep the game boring and based on field position, that will lead to at least 6 points.

Those six points could be huge. The over-under is 42. I think Iowa wins by 5 in Ames, but never really gets comfortable: 22 - 17.
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I caught a little of the ISU pre-game show prior to the UNI game. They mentioned CB as a weakness on their D. I think their run D will be stout, and they have shown a propensity the last 2 years to sell out to stop Iowa's run.

I think Iowa knows how big this game is. I think they use a 2017 OSU/2018 Miss St. game-plan. I think they pass to set up the run. A lot of 3 and 4 WR sets. Try to attack the outside with some jet sweep, use the backs in the receiving game as an extension of the run game, etc..
 
I think the absence of David Montgomery and Hakeem Butler this year for the Clowns is huge. They may find some suitable replacements at some point but I don't think they have yet. I'm not sure that we score a lot of points on their defense but I don't think they will either.
 
cincyhawk said:
You think Montgomery is that big of a loss? We only scored 13 with two NFL tight ends last year.
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I would respond, but he beat me to it. Purdy just isn’t very good without these guys:

haydensly said:
I think the absence of David Montgomery and Hakeem Butler this year for the Clowns is huge. They may find some suitable replacements at some point but I don't think they have yet. I'm not sure that we score a lot of points on their defense but I don't think they will either.
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cincyhawk said:
You think Montgomery is that big of a loss? We only scored 13 with two NFL tight ends last year.
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Iowa has more playmakers at WR & RB this year than ISU does. I don't think I have said that since DJK and McNutt, but it is true now. Iowa can simply refocus the offense to revolve around the WR rather than the TE.

So far Iowa WR have 25 catches, 350 yards and 6 TD's
Last year after two games Iowa WR had 9 catches for 131 yards and 0 TD's.

Basically Iowa is gonna replace Fant and Hockenson with it's WR. ISU has nothing that can replace Montgomery and Butler.
 
deanvogs said:
Iowa has more playmakers at WR & RB this year than ISU does. I don't think I have said that since DJK and McNutt, but it is true now. Iowa can simply refocus the offense to revolve around the WR rather than the TE.

So far Iowa WR have 25 catches, 350 yards and 6 TD's
Last year after two games Iowa WR had 9 catches for 131 yards and 0 TD's.

Basically Iowa is gonna replace Fant and Hockenson with it's WR. ISU has nothing that can replace Montgomery and Butler.
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See, this is reassurance!
 
I'd run even more of the offense from the shotgun, both passing and running plays. Stanley is more accurate from the shotgun and the personnel Iowa has at WR and RB have also been effective from the shotgun.
 
AreWeThereYet said:
I'd run even more of the offense from the shotgun, both passing and running plays. Stanley is more accurate from the shotgun and the personnel Iowa has at WR and RB have also been effective from the shotgun.
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You’ve gotta think that running out of the shotgun helps give the RBs time for lanes to develop in the zone scheme. Do you know where to find stats on this?
 
cincyhawk said:
Iowa has a 69% chance to win this game - that's the lowest chance of any AP ranked favorite in his predictions this week.

Hawkeyes have to come to play. I think this is one of the most complete teams through two games Iowa has ever fielded. Iowa State also has a really legitimate P5 team this year.

I think they were better last year, but Purdy hadn't won the QB spot yet when Iowa played them.

Mike Rose and their NT are dangerous, mean, up the middle playmakers on D, and Iowa has a new guard and new center this year. Iowa hasn't shown a dominating interior run game yet, and there will be some chaos in the backfield caused by those two players that will disrupt drives, cause turnovers, and force more iso than even Iowa wants to run. Stanley hasn't shown the ability to throw between the linebacker and in front of the safeties at all this year, and is not mobile. Rose is going to come on blitz after blitz. There aren't 30 points to be had in this game. If Iowa's slot receivers and Stanley can't take advantage of that portion of the field, Iowa will lose this game as ISU will put 6 and 7 guys into the pass and run rush, outnumbering any protection Iowa can field. UNI neutralized this with a mobile QB and a great TE. Iowa has neither.

Purdy can run. He's exactly the kind of QB that Purdue and Northwestern have given Phil Parker's D fits in the past. Last year, the CASH was there to help out with that threat. That guy is playing on Sundays now. Hakeem Butler and the lizard are gone. Iowa's secondary is a little banged up. The DL isn't as long now that Nelson is gone, leaving just a little bigger of a window to throw through. OLB haven't had to cover decent receivers while keeping their eyes in the backfield. Purdy can make all the throws, but it's going to be a big week for Stone at SS. If he can tackle Purdy in space, and the backers can make the correct reads and drop into coverage, Iowa can hold ISU below 20 in this game.

Special teams advantage goes to Iowa. If the Hawks can keep the game boring and based on field position, that will lead to at least 6 points.

Those six points could be huge. The over-under is 42. I think Iowa wins by 5 in Ames, but never really gets comfortable: 22 - 17.
Click to expand...
Iowa shuts out and shuts up the Cyclones!
 
BrianFerentzForPresident said:
You’ve gotta think that running out of the shotgun helps give the RBs time for lanes to develop in the zone scheme. Do you know where to find stats on this?
Click to expand...

I don't know where to find stats on that. Chad Leisticow commented after the first game that the running game from the shotgun had been effective. I noticed Sargent was particularly effective from the shotgun in both games. Goodson would seem to be a natural candidate for that as well.

With all the weapons Iowa has now at wide receiver the shotgun gives them an opportunity to spread the field, which in tern opens up the running game outside.

Stanley's footwork has always seemed a little more settled working out of the shotgun. First off, I think it allows him to see the field better. He also doesn't have to reorient himself from being turned away from the field to facing the field, like he has to in play action.
 
cincyhawk said:
Iowa has a 69% chance to win this game - that's the lowest chance of any AP ranked favorite in his predictions this week.

Hawkeyes have to come to play. I think this is one of the most complete teams through two games Iowa has ever fielded. Iowa State also has a really legitimate P5 team this year.

I think they were better last year, but Purdy hadn't won the QB spot yet when Iowa played them.

Mike Rose and their NT are dangerous, mean, up the middle playmakers on D, and Iowa has a new guard and new center this year. Iowa hasn't shown a dominating interior run game yet, and there will be some chaos in the backfield caused by those two players that will disrupt drives, cause turnovers, and force more iso than even Iowa wants to run. Stanley hasn't shown the ability to throw between the linebacker and in front of the safeties at all this year, and is not mobile. Rose is going to come on blitz after blitz. There aren't 30 points to be had in this game. If Iowa's slot receivers and Stanley can't take advantage of that portion of the field, Iowa will lose this game as ISU will put 6 and 7 guys into the pass and run rush, outnumbering any protection Iowa can field. UNI neutralized this with a mobile QB and a great TE. Iowa has neither.

Purdy can run. He's exactly the kind of QB that Purdue and Northwestern have given Phil Parker's D fits in the past. Last year, the CASH was there to help out with that threat. That guy is playing on Sundays now. Hakeem Butler and the lizard are gone. Iowa's secondary is a little banged up. The DL isn't as long now that Nelson is gone, leaving just a little bigger of a window to throw through. OLB haven't had to cover decent receivers while keeping their eyes in the backfield. Purdy can make all the throws, but it's going to be a big week for Stone at SS. If he can tackle Purdy in space, and the backers can make the correct reads and drop into coverage, Iowa can hold ISU below 20 in this game.

Special teams advantage goes to Iowa. If the Hawks can keep the game boring and based on field position, that will lead to at least 6 points.

Those six points could be huge. The over-under is 42. I think Iowa wins by 5 in Ames, but never really gets comfortable: 22 - 17.
Click to expand...


All fair points. One thing I’ve noticed in the past couple years about mobile QBs like Purdy or Adrian Martinez is when they face a physical defense like Iowa (or Colorado last week for Nebraska) is they have the tendency to fumble. Young hungry guys like Purdy are always trying to stretch a play for one more second before the go down or throw the ball away and they get crushed.

The elite dual threat guys from the past like say deshaun Watson, baker mayfield, Kyler murray or even dak or Tebow, could manage this better. Purdy isn’t at that level.
 
Their QB can’t throw and their Oline can’t block.

I don’t buy into this dominating defense Miller and the deuce have been shoving down our throats.

We dominate at the line and pull away steadily.
 
hawkinn3 said:
Their QB can’t throw and their Oline can’t block.

I don’t buy into this dominating defense Miller and the deuce have been shoving down our throats.

We dominate at the line and pull away steadily.
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It seems that Iowa has the talent and depth on both sides of the line to wear opponents out this year. That has always been a key to successful Kirkball.
 
hawkinn3 said:
Their QB can’t throw and their Oline can’t block.

I don’t buy into this dominating defense Miller and the deuce have been shoving down our throats.

We dominate at the line and pull away steadily.
Click to expand...

Their oline can absolutely block, and Purdy can absolutely throw the ball. That UNI game was a complete fluke, generated by the fact that they've been preparing for Iowa since spring, not UNI, UNI was a typical sandwich game, and first game rust. Plus they pulled it out at the end.

Fry, I love the enthusiasm, but I think the Hawks better be all business this week. They don't have a RB as far as I can tell. That's a huge weakness, as it puts even more pressure on Purdy to carry the team. They also don't have a kicker worth a damn. If Iowa can get to Purdy, and Stanley can stay calm in the pocket, the game could get ugly quickly for the cyclones.
 
AreWeThereYet said:
I don't know where to find stats on that. Chad Leisticow commented after the first game that the running game from the shotgun had been effective. I noticed Sargent was particularly effective from the shotgun in both games.

Goodson would seem to be a natural candidate for that as well.

.
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Goodson seems to have the feet to be another of the really good cutback runners like Fred Russell. Goodson already showing the ability. I and those around us in the stands at the last game thought the hawks started running the ball better with stanley under center and a fullback or not in the game.
 
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