Rest of the season projections and thoughts

Dadman

Dadman

Well-Known Member
Was just reviewing the upcoming schedule, and with no scientific or statistical support, I am projecting 7-5 the rest of the way. 21-10, 11-9 in conference with likely 4 games in B10 tourney. I think we will steal one we shouldn't win, and lose one we have no business losing (Ex Rutgers game).
 
Getting to the NCAA tournament would be a tremendous achievement and set us up nicely for next year.

Not so sure that Murray goes pro just yet. One more year of playing in the B1G and a year closer to that degree his parents treasure so much. The family is a class act.
 
CBB teams can lose on the road, you see it constantly and it's from the elite to the middle of road teams - they're all not immune to trip ups. They all lose on the road with the exception of maybe 2 or 3 teams a season and even in that case, most of their losses came on the road too.

Anytime Iowa plays on the road, whether it's top of the league or bottom, and whether its an elite team or not, they can still easily lose on the road. So many above average Iowa teams have lost on the road to Nebraska, PSU etc that they had no business losing too - but you always know they likely will lose.

If you go above .500 on the road you're probably a top 3 seed.
 
It sucks that we couldnt have played Michigan earlier they were not very good awhile back but they are starting to hit there stride now and by the end of the year there are going to be a very dangerous team.
 
I can see us finishing 10-10

That should be considered a very good season all things considered

We would be borderline Dancers if we win one in the BTT

This team is a ton of fun to watch

Fearless and tough as nails

They have turned into a defensive machine with a solid team concept

Purdue is a game we can win, with Keegan playing this time

Boilermakers were: 27-37 from the free-throw line

Hawks were: 15-22

Outrageous fuckery by the zebras

18 fouls called on Purdue

29 on the Hawks

We shoot better than 5-21 from ThreeLand with the zebras calling a fair game

And we Win, Lads
 
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This team just needs to win half of the games, then one or two in the Big Tourney, no game is a sure win or loss. If they can sneak into the tourney and with games called tighter in NCAA tourney they could win a couple riding Keegan. I would like him to get a taste of the Tourney and hopefully want to come back to play another year with his brother. This team is trending upwards, Rebracca is coming on and Kris has no ceiling. Most of the players on the team are young and are playing in the moment. No heavy expectations to worry about.
 
InGoodCo said:
CBB teams can lose on the road, you see it constantly and it's from the elite to the middle of road teams - they're all not immune to trip ups. They all lose on the road with the exception of maybe 2 or 3 teams a season and even in that case, most of their losses came on the road too.

Anytime Iowa plays on the road, whether it's top of the league or bottom, and whether its an elite team or not, they can still easily lose on the road. So many above average Iowa teams have lost on the road to Nebraska, PSU etc that they had no business losing too - but you always know they likely will lose.

If you go above .500 on the road you're probably a top 3 seed.
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Below is Iowa's road record since Fran started compared to the rest of the B1G. College basketball is easily the sport with the biggest home court advantage. If you play around with the criteria selections on that page it's pretty telling about how hard it is to win on the road in P6 basketball. You might as well plan on Iowa losing 2/3rds of all of its road games right off the hop. Smack dab in the middle of the B1G. That's not a criticism by me of Fran, that's just the way it is. Iowa isn't a basketball school and likely never will be. Maybe 5% of P6 teams are "basketball schools."

1643205384311.png

This is the past 5 years; no reason behind that time frame, it's arbitrary by me. Keep in mind that these are all road games, not just conference, and neutral courts are not included.

1643205525329.png

Lastly, here's Iowa's record as far back as the site goes, 2003. This includes the end of Dickbag Van Alfraud and the entire Lickliter administration, (what I like to call the disco era of Iowa basketball), so it's skewed downwards a little. But the point remains, there are 20 years of sampling that shows Iowa is gonna lose 2/3rds of all road games.

1643206026480.png
 
So, if I figure in the statistical results from Fry, then my projection stands- I have Iowa 2-4 on the road and 5-1 at home. Unfortunately, I could see the home game against Michigan as an L, and we could finish 10-10 in conference, which would still be a step up from pre-season projections for this team. Then, if we even went 1-1 in BTT, I still think we are dancing. 2-1 would be better.
 
Oh, and while I very much appreciate your analysis Fry, it is perfectly acceptable in the better circles to simply not count the Lickliter years- black holes absorb all matter, and if any era is equivalent to a black hole in IA BB, that would be the era......
 
Dadman said:
Thu, Jan 27vsPurdue6 PurdueWin- payback time
Mon, Jan 31@Penn StatePenn StateWin
Thu, Feb 3@Ohio State16 Ohio StateLoss
Sun, Feb 6vsMinnesotaMinnesotaWin
Thu, Feb 10@MarylandMarylandLoss- we shouldn't, but its at MD
Sun, Feb 13vsNebraskaNebraskaWin
Thu, Feb 17vsMichiganMichiganWin
Tue, Feb 22vsMichigan State10 Michigan StateLoss
Fri, Feb 25@NebraskaNebraskaWin
Mon, Feb 28vsNorthwesternNorthwesternWin
Thu, Mar 3@MichiganMichiganLoss
Sun, Mar 6@Illinois24 IllinoisLoss- 2 L's in a row, fire Fran talk!
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This seems plausible, except that Purdue win. I just don't see that happening. However, I may place an online bet on the Hawks losing just to ensure we win and make Dadman's prediction come true.
 
Chickenlounge said:
@Fryowa what site are you using to generate those stats?
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Teamrankings.com

I highly recommend not visiting that site unless you want to lose the next 15 hours of your life.

Be warned, if you go there, you're going to suddenly find yourself at 2:54AM analyzing the Giants' winning percentage in road games on Tuesdays in 2009 where the temperature was 67* or higher when Tim Lincecum had pancakes for breakfast.

It's ridiculous the amount of data there.
 
Dadman said:
Oh, and while I very much appreciate your analysis Fry, it is perfectly acceptable in the better circles to simply not count the Lickliter years- black holes absorb all matter, and if any era is equivalent to a black hole in IA BB, that would be the era......
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Personally I think the U of I should self-vacate all wins in the Alford years. Lickliter was a garbage hire and a garbage coach, but at least his wins (few as they may be) don't smell like a RAGBRAI Porta Pot at the end of the day.

The guy is a scumbag on the level of Calipari and Pitino, only he wasn't good enough at cheating to win like they did.
 
I have us 6-6 down the stretch, so 10-10 overall. I agree with Fry's overall take that its hard to win road games. So I see us 5-1 at home and 1-5 on the road or something close to that. The team is still young, uneven, and Fran does not have a good feel for rotations even this deep into the season. So, there will be struggles.

Given history, 10-10 in Big10 play, plus one tourney wins gets us into the Dance as an 11 seed or so.

If Fran pulls the right strings, Kris M. continues to ascend as his brother did last season, Flip keeps growing into his role as a legit power forward in this league, and JBO rediscovers his swagger and plays an efficient 20 minutes of ball, this team could be a tough out down the stretch for anyone. The talent is certainly there.
 
One of the best
Fryowa said:
Below is Iowa's road record since Fran started compared to the rest of the B1G. College basketball is easily the sport with the biggest home court advantage. If you play around with the criteria selections on that page it's pretty telling about how hard it is to win on the road in P6 basketball. You might as well plan on Iowa losing 2/3rds of all of its road games right off the hop. Smack dab in the middle of the B1G. That's not a criticism by me of Fran, that's just the way it is. Iowa isn't a basketball school and likely never will be. Maybe 5% of P6 teams are "basketball schools."

View attachment 8641

This is the past 5 years; no reason behind that time frame, it's arbitrary by me. Keep in mind that these are all road games, not just conference, and neutral courts are not included.

View attachment 8642

Lastly, here's Iowa's record as far back as the site goes, 2003. This includes the end of Dickbag Van Alfraud and the entire Lickliter administration, (what I like to call the disco era of Iowa basketball), so it's skewed downwards a little. But the point remains, there are 20 years of sampling that shows Iowa is gonna lose 2/3rds of all road games.

View attachment 8643
Click to expand...
Good stuff Fry - I appreciate you compounding on my opinion on road games. You can point out Iowa is middle of the pack on the road, but the more astonishing thing I see is programs like MSU and WI - who have had huge successes, final 4's and routinely elite play the last decade or 2 - and those teams are just barely .500 on the road.

I personally count every road game Iowa plays as an L - and every road game they win is just icing on the resume. I never assume against, literally any team that "Iowa should win this one" just because I've watch CBB for decades - Iowa has never really been a program that's won more than 3 of 10 on the road and frankly, there aren't that many programs that are a whole hell of a lot better on the road. 3 of 10 vs 5 of 10 - that's the difference between elite and middle of the pack.
 
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Fryowa said:
Also...

Sorry, but that Purdue game ain't happenin'.
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hmmm... I think Iowa matches up really well with Purdue - despite their size. They also played them well on the road without Keegan. I feel better about Iowa winning against Purdue then at Penn State or at Nebraska... but again, that's just the way I see the sport in general
 
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