Random thoughts on Iowa Hoops Season (stats) to date

JonDMiller

JonDMiller

Publisher/Founder
Iowa has just three players averaging over 17.3 minutes per game. Just three! But it has six averaging between 15.8 and 17.2

Marble: 31.5
White: 26.8
Gesell: 25.1
May: 17.2
Basabe: 17.0
Woodbury: 16.9
Clemmons: 16.9
Oglesby: 16.3
McCabe: 15.8

Indiana has six players averaging over 22 minutes per game and another player at 15.8. Illinois has seven over 20 minutes per game. Michigan has five over 21.8 and three over 30, with a sixth at 14.3. I will stop there, but so far Iowa has the deepest rotation of players getting at least 179 minutes of time than any team in the Big Ten. Iowa is the 2nd least experienced team in the Big Ten according to Ken Pomeroy and only 14 other teams from power conferences are less experienced than Iowa.

Iowa jumped up from 50th to 44th in Ken Pomeroy's rankings from yesterday. Iowa's SOS dropped from 295th to 319th though. Odd. Pomeroy now projects Iowa to be 20-11 on the year and 9-9 in league play...which is exactly what I predicted before the season began. Iowa's RPI dropped after last night's win as 50% of the formula is based on your opponents strength, 25 % on that of your opponents opponents and just 25% on your own wins...and home wins count for less than road wins. Iowa's SOS will be just fine by the end of the year as far as a tourney resume, but they are going to have to beat a few ranked teams and not just feast on NW (2), Neb (2), PSU (2), Purdue (2).
 
A lot of pastries on the BoneG schedule for the hox. Suppose they sweep those 8 against the bad teams listed, and maybe win one against WIsconsin, but lose to every decent team in conference. 9-9 in conference...do they dance?
 
I would guess if they swept those teams they'll be closer to 11-7 than 9-9.
I think we spring an upset or two, but are upset ourselves once or twice.
Beating a team like Pudue in any incarnation is not a gimmie.
 
goldenhawk96 said:
I would guess if they swept those teams they'll be closer to 11-7 than 9-9.
I think we spring an upset or two, but are upset ourselves once or twice.
Beating a team like Pudue in any incarnation is not a gimmie.
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Fran has also never beat a Bill Carmody coached team. If we have some bad losses like that, then upsets become a necessity.
 
Even with the weak non-conference schedule, I think the Hawks have to win 10 games against big ten teams to go dancing this year.
 
GhostofBTT said:
A lot of pastries on the BoneG schedule for the hox. Suppose they sweep those 8 against the bad teams listed, and maybe win one against WIsconsin, but lose to every decent team in conference. 9-9 in conference...do they dance?
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Your proclaimations of fanhood notwithstanding, I've never met a single Iowa fan who refers to our team as "the hox". I have heard plenty of Clowns and Goofers do it. It seems you either suffer from massive self-loathing or your entire edifice on this board is a sham. In either case; keep on keepin' on, Ghost.

If we finish 9-9 in conference, we dance.
 
wundergrape said:
Your proclaimations of fanhood notwithstanding, I've never met a single Iowa fan who refers to our team as "the hox". I have heard plenty of Clowns and Goofers do it. It seems you either suffer from massive self-loathing or your entire edifice on this board is a sham. In either case; keep on keepin' on, Ghost.

If we finish 9-9 in conference, we dance.
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Plz stay on topic and refrain from personal attacks. kthnx
 
Iowa jumped in Pomeroy likely due...

JonDMiller said:
Iowa has just three players averaging over 17.3 minutes per game. Just three! But it has six averaging between 15.8 and 17.2

Marble: 31.5
White: 26.8
Gesell: 25.1
May: 17.2
Basabe: 17.0
Woodbury: 16.9
Clemmons: 16.9
Oglesby: 16.3
McCabe: 15.8

Indiana has six players averaging over 22 minutes per game and another player at 15.8. Illinois has seven over 20 minutes per game. Michigan has five over 21.8 and three over 30, with a sixth at 14.3. I will stop there, but so far Iowa has the deepest rotation of players getting at least 179 minutes of time than any team in the Big Ten. Iowa is the 2nd least experienced team in the Big Ten according to Ken Pomeroy and only 14 other teams from power conferences are less experienced than Iowa.

Iowa jumped up from 50th to 44th in Ken Pomeroy's rankings from yesterday. Iowa's SOS dropped from 295th to 319th though. Odd. Pomeroy now projects Iowa to be 20-11 on the year and 9-9 in league play...which is exactly what I predicted before the season began. Iowa's RPI dropped after last night's win as 50% of the formula is based on your opponents strength, 25 % on that of your opponents opponents and just 25% on your own wins...and home wins count for less than road wins. Iowa's SOS will be just fine by the end of the year as far as a tourney resume, but they are going to have to beat a few ranked teams and not just feast on NW (2), Neb (2), PSU (2), Purdue (2).
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to how thoroughly Iowa dismantled SC State. Improved both Iowa's offensive and defensive efficiency ratings enough to move up 6 spots. My guess is the minutes distribution will start to look more like the Iowa State game once conference season starts, barring injuries or foul trouble. But at least Fran CAN go to an Olaseni or an Ingram should he need a few minutes for someone in foul trouble and feel somewhat comfortable that either of those guys can at least play defense and not turn it over on offense.
 
GhostofBTT said:
A lot of pastries on the BoneG schedule for the hox. Suppose they sweep those 8 against the bad teams listed, and maybe win one against WIsconsin, but lose to every decent team in conference. 9-9 in conference...do they dance?
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not in my opinion
 
I have to believe that Woodbury and Clemmons have their minutes trending up. I would be very surprised if Clemmons finishes the season at under 20 min per game. Woodbury is looking more and more like a 20+ min a game guy as long as the fouls don't pile up. He has developed much quicker than I expected. If Ogelsby can get healthy I think he will end up with more minutes than May and Basabe. McCabe and May will probably see their minutes diminish. I feel like Basabe will see his minutes stay similar. I have to think White and Marble will both be over 30 minutes for the Big 10 season. Need both of those guys on the court as much as possible.

My guess to Big 10 minutes:
1 - Clemmons (27 min), Gesell (13 min),
2 - Gesell (15 min), Ogelsby (18 min), Marble (7 min)
3 - Marble (28 min), May (12 min)
4 - White (30 min), Basabe (10 min)
5 - Woodbury (20 min), McCabe (13 min), Basabe (7 min)

Gabe will get minutes against teams when fouls come into play and against taller teams, Ingram may never get on the court outside of blowout games.
 
Iowa's conference outlook will be completely rewritten after Iowa plays Indiana in a couple weeks. We really don't know anything right now. They are improving, that much is obvious. How good will they be? How good CAN they be? A solid game against Indiana, even with a loss will be extremely positive going forward.
 
In order for Iowa to make the NCAA tournament, they have to beat at least two ranked teams in the BIG and not lose to PSU or Nebby.

When Iowa plays Wisconsin, Purdue, Nebby, PSU and NW they have to win 8 of those games, but as I stated earlier, no losses to Nebby and PSU. I think a loss at NW is not the worst thing, but if that is their worst BIG loss it is not the end of the world.

I think Iowa has a shot at upsetting Indiana, MSU, Illinois and Minnesota at home, if Iowa wins two of those games, or one and 9 of the above games they are in. When they play at Indiana, Michigan and OSU they cannot go and get blown out by 30 either.

The outlook is good as I think they have a legit shot at 11 wins in conference, but it will come down to how well Iowa's whole rotation plays, it will be a total team effort.
 
how is it that Iowa with far less talent in depth and experience can beat 4 of the Top teams in the BT that were in the the Top 25, has got everybody shaking in their boots about even trying to compete this year?
Gatens as not the end all of everything that is Iowa BB.
to many are still suffering from a Lick Hangover.
 
redhawk55 said:
how is it that Iowa with far less talent in depth and experience can beat 4 of the Top teams in the BT that were in the the Top 25, has got everybody shaking in their boots about even trying to compete this year?
Gatens as not the end all of everything that is Iowa BB.
to many are still suffering from a Lick Hangover.
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Its ok to have realistic expectations herbacide.. good lord no one is predicting us to go 5-12
 
Herby, if you wanna go ahead and claim we'll go 14-4, bully for you. You had just better prepare to be publicly Deacified across every board when your predictions start going south. Realistic expectations prevent depression. That way, when they end up north of that border, you're happy they exceeded expectations.
 
redhawk55 said:
how is it that Iowa with far less talent in depth and experience can beat 4 of the Top teams in the BT that were in the the Top 25, has got everybody shaking in their boots about even trying to compete this year?
Gatens as not the end all of everything that is Iowa BB.
to many are still suffering from a Lick Hangover.
Click to expand...

People are nervous about leaning on freshmen. That's hardly an outrageous or unrealistic concern. 9-9 is realistic (not to mention a better record than last year). People hope for more, but they choose to keep a level head when setting expectations. Like Tmoney said, nobody is calling for 5-13.
 
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