Quality Wins, Bad Losses - Iowa's resume is a weird study

storminspank

storminspank

Justin VanLaere
Iowa is an interesting subject in this area for the committee.

The committee loves quality wins, dislikes bad losses.
Iowa really doesn't have either, which sort of helps their Sagarin rating.

QUALITY WINS: Iowa State, Wisconsin
BAD LOSSES: Virginia Tech, Purdue (marginal)

But even when you look at those.... neither are significant.
Both losses were on the road to <175 KenPom teams.
Both wins were at home to <50 KenPom teams.



So, really, the long and short of it is... Iowa hasn't done much this year to help or hurt their chances for postseason bids. The real helper in this ordeal is playing in the B1G, as well as having already played the toughest part of the schedule. Their L10 is predicted to be pretty solid (probably 7-3).

If Iowa wins the games they should the rest of the way, the committee is going to be looking at a very interesting, yet boring resume.
Will it be enough that they playing the B1G? I don't know. But it's an intriguing at-large discussion. I haven't seen a lot of bubble teams like this in the past.
 


It'd also be interesting to see if multiple close losses to good teams means anything. To me, losing on the road to a ranked team by single digits is more impressive than beating a bad team at home by 20.
 


I think they are truly walking a fine line. So many scenarios. I think Iowa has shown they can compete against any team in the conference. It obviously hasn't been pretty, but just imagine if they could put together complete games. Next year we could see a top 3 finish in conference.
 


storminspank said:
Iowa is an interesting subject in this area for the committee.

The committee loves quality wins, dislikes bad losses.
Iowa really doesn't have either, which sort of helps their Sagarin rating.

QUALITY WINS: Iowa State, Wisconsin
BAD LOSSES: Virginia Tech, Purdue (marginal)

But even when you look at those.... neither are significant.
Both losses were on the road to <175 KenPom teams.
Both wins were at home to <50 KenPom teams.



So, really, the long and short of it is... Iowa hasn't done much this year to help or hurt their chances for postseason bids. The real helper in this ordeal is playing in the B1G, as well as having already played the toughest part of the schedule. Their L10 is predicted to be pretty solid (probably 7-3).

If Iowa wins the games they should the rest of the way, the committee is going to be looking at a very interesting, yet boring resume.
Will it be enough that they playing the B1G? I don't know. But it's an intriguing at-large discussion. I haven't seen a lot of bubble teams like this in the past.
Click to expand...

Well, your 7-3 will be their last 10 in regular season. But then there is the B10 Tournament. They might be 0-1 or 1-1 or 2-1or 3-1 or 4-0 in that. That could drastically alter their last ten games record.
 


Iowa could have been top 3 this years with some breaks honestly so that's not much of a stretch. Finish strong and you'd think we'd be ranked preseason next year. Not that it means much but it would still be cool to see a little number next to Iowa's name again.
 


Would they be better off with a win over Indiana and 2 losses to teams they "should" beat, and finish 9-9, as opposed to winning all of their games except Indiana, and finish 10-8?
 


homes said:
Would they be better off with a win over Indiana and 2 losses to teams they "should" beat, and finish 9-9, as opposed to winning all of their games except Indiana, and finish 10-8?
Click to expand...

I'd say no. History is on the side of 10-8....no Big 10 team that has finished 10-8 has ever been left out of the tournament. But there are times when 9-9 teams have been left out (Iowa being the first in 1994-1995). I'd still take 10-8 and then take our chances knocking off someone in the BTT. But I want that 10-8 "in the barn".
 


Thawki said:
Well, your 7-3 will be their last 10 in regular season. But then there is the B10 Tournament. They might be 0-1 or 1-1 or 2-1or 3-1 or 4-0 in that. That could drastically alter their last ten games record.
Click to expand...

Actually my 7-3 is assuming Iowa goes 1-1 in the BTT.

If they go 2-1 in BTT, they are 7-3 in L10. 3-1, they are 7-3 in their L10.
But in either of those two scenarios, the L10 won't matter because they will be in the tourney.
 


homes said:
Would they be better off with a win over Indiana and 2 losses to teams they "should" beat, and finish 9-9, as opposed to winning all of their games except Indiana, and finish 10-8?
Click to expand...

Wow, that is a really great question.
I think the 9-9 + Indiana would be enough, esp since it would be on the road.
 


It's also interesting how far apart our RPI is compared to ranking systems like KenPom and Sagarin both of which have us in the mid 30's while our RPI is in the 90's. That is one of the largest gaps of any team in the RPI top 100. Hopefully the tournament comittee takes all these rankings into consideration.
 


hawkfan33 said:
It's also interesting how far apart our RPI is compared to ranking systems like KenPom and Sagarin both of which have us in the mid 30's while our RPI is in the 90's. That is one of the largest gaps of any team in the RPI top 100. Hopefully the tournament comittee takes all these rankings into consideration.
Click to expand...

I believe they utilize several different ranking systems, unfortunately (in our case) RPI is one of them.
 


bcl20 said:
It'd also be interesting to see if multiple close losses to good teams means anything. To me, losing on the road to a ranked team by single digits is more impressive than beating a bad team at home by 20.
Click to expand...

It will when they start comparing similar resumes.
 




hawkfan33 said:
It's also interesting how far apart our RPI is compared to ranking systems like KenPom and Sagarin both of which have us in the mid 30's while our RPI is in the 90's. That is one of the largest gaps of any team in the RPI top 100. Hopefully the tournament comittee takes all these rankings into consideration.
Click to expand...

Pom/Sag - predictive
RPI - results thus far


They will come together closer in about 5-8 games. Although they can still be 20+ away due to using different metrics.
 


storminspank said:
Pom/Sag - predictive
RPI - results thus far


They will come together closer in about 5-8 games. Although they can still be 20+ away due to using different metrics.
Click to expand...

Do you think they can climb into at least the 50's in RPI? I haven't followed RPI real close the last few years but to me it seems our SOS will really hold us back from getting that high.
 


At this point I think the best we can expect is to not completely stumble. Ala lose to Nebraska, etc.
Win what we should, hang tough vs Indiana. The we hope that some other bubble team completely collapses.

I hope I'm wrong, but I see our post season tournament with 3 letters, not 4.:cool:
 








hawkfan33 said:
Do you think they can climb into at least the 50's in RPI? I haven't followed RPI real close the last few years but to me it seems our SOS will really hold us back from getting that high.
Click to expand...

Not w/o beating I/U and winning most all the rest.
 


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