Punt Si o No?
- Thread starter NCHawker
- Start date
Dan Sabers, Iowa City City High coach, went an entire year.....2 punts. 4th and 15 on his own 20 and he would go for it, and yes he did have a decent punter. I don't quite understand the thinking, but most of the time it worked for him, except when it didn't.
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HawkInATX
Well-Known Member
So the coach at Pulaski takes it to the very extreme. The data sets that the professor who came up with the "never punt" theory used all have one major limitation: Most teams usually only go for it on fourth down in dire circumstances in which it is almost always the best bet. But, it does change the entire flow of the game down-to-down. If you know you're never going to punt, you have 4 chances instead of 3 to make a first down, meaning you only need to average 2.5 yards a play essentially to keep the chains moving. This leads to the ability to, even in a system like Kirk Ferentz's, throw the ball on first down since a no-gainer isn't nearly as detrimental in the long term or in that drive. Same thing with 2-pt conversions and onside kicks.
#1DieHardHawk
Well-Known Member
This isn't really new. There was a similar analysis, probably about 15 years ago. It showed that from a mathematic probability standpoint, you will end up with more offensive possessions and a higher score by not punting unless the yards to gain were beyond a certain number, depending upon which area of the field you were at. For example, something like 4th and 11 or less if you are at the opponent's 40, or 4th and 2 or less at your own 25.
Like any competitive strategy, it will bite you at times, but - if the math is correct - over the course of a season you come out ahead.
Like any competitive strategy, it will bite you at times, but - if the math is correct - over the course of a season you come out ahead.
MelroseHawkins
Well-Known Member
Intriguing topic. You ever find yourself watching a game and thinking "How the hell can't they get that far in 4 plays?".
What is even more boggling is when a team is held under 30 yards rushing for a game. Really? You can't run for 50 yrds. When looking at the field and visualizing 30yds, it just looks weird.
What is even more boggling is when a team is held under 30 yards rushing for a game. Really? You can't run for 50 yrds. When looking at the field and visualizing 30yds, it just looks weird.
MelroseHawkins
Well-Known Member
There seem to be a lot of times anymore where the net punt average is around 20 yrds. Then like dang should have gone for it.
