Projecting the Big Ten Tourney Bracket v1.0

[JonDMiller]

Talking Iowa Hawkeyes and Big Ten basketball on this snowy Friday morning...

POWER RANKINGS

The biggest eye-popper this week was Ohio State's beat down of Minnesota, 71-45 in Columbus. 24 turnovers for the Gophers. They are playing horribly bad basketball as of late and their 15-1 start and Top Ten ranking is a thing of the past; they are now 18-9 overall and 6-8 in league play. That means they are 3-8 since hitting the 15-1 plateau on January 9th, the highest point for the program since the scandalous late 1990's. Even with that loss, I still put them ahead of Purdue and keep them at eight in the Power Rankings.

I have been debating as to whether or not I should slide Illinois to five ahead of Ohio State, given how well the Illini have been playing and the fact that Illinois beat Ohio State by double-digits earlier in the year. We'll get a chance to see those two teams again on March 10th in Columbus.

I'd still keep Michigan State at #2 despite their loss to Indiana.

BIG TEN TOURNAMENT

It's the time of year where I begin to take a peek at that empty Big Ten tournament bracket and begin to play out some scenarios.

For the sake of this exercise, here is how I would seed the tournament right now

1. Indiana 15-3
2. Michigan State 13-5 (sweep of Wisconsin)
3. Wisconsin 13-5
4. Michigan 12-6
5. Ohio State 11-7
6. Iowa 9-9
7. Illinois 8-10 (wins tie break with Minnesota)
8. Minnesota 8-10
9. Purdue 6-12
10. Nebraska 4-14 (wins tie break with NW)
11. Northwestern 4-14
12. Penn State 0-18

With that out of the way, here is how such a bracket would look with the Top Four seeds receiving byes:

The 'six hole' has been a pretty good slot to come out of in the Big Ten tournament. When Iowa won four games in four days back in 2001, they came out of the six hole. That was in an 11 team tournament, but it's still a good slot. In this instance that team would be Wisconsin, which is the best matchup of the Top Four seeds for Iowa to meet in the second round. You could make the case that Iowa should be riding a four-game winning streak over the Badgers, were it not for their double overtime loss in Madison a few weeks back.

There is still plenty of basketball to be played and Iowa could also wind up 10-8 but even if they did, I believe the highest finish Iowa will see this year is sixth. Illinois has a tough stretch to close things out, which is why I see them winning just one more game.

 

[ameshawkeye]

While the 6 spot would be a good place to land, that seed does not play the "lowest high seed" like you say Jon. The 5 seed would. I think you got confused because both Michigan and Wisconsin are listed as the 4.

Regardless, a second round draw with Wisconsin would be great.

 

[StanzisLettuce]

I would rather see Iowa play a depleated Northwestern team in the first round than PSU. Something about that team makes me think that they are getting better by the day and are still going to jump up and get someone they shouldn't.

 

[JonDMiller]

While the 6 spot would be a good place to land, that seed does not play the "lowest high seed" like you say Jon. The 5 seed would. I think you got confused because both Michigan and Wisconsin are listed as the 4.

Regardless, a second round draw with Wisconsin would be great.

Thanks for the heads up and yes you are correct, I did have both listed at 4...have corrected that now.

 

[Section136]

I dont see a way Nebraska moves off the 11 line. They finish with 2 against the Hawks, Illinois, Minny and Wisky.

NW is a game ahead of them right now and still gets a game with Purdue and PSU.

 

[JHHawk]

My preferred route would be for NW to fall to 11th,and play Iowa. NW is on fumes with all their injuries.
Do not want to play Neb three times in 3 weeks...Then Wisky vs Iowa in second round....we match up well and should have swept them. Then MSU...no great choices in the 3rd round,but still think MSU is subject to some tough shooting nites,and can be caught on one of those nites. Then, Michigan upsetting IU would be fine with me,and playing Michigan beats playing IU for a 3rd time....but if we get to Sunday,no complaints with opponent.

 

[ILHawk]

Is there any possibility of Williams for MN becoming healthy before the end of the season?

 

[JG10Hawk]

That is probably the best case scenario for Iowa match up wise. They need to take care of business against Nebby x2, Purdue, and Illinois and the Hawks would be in a great situation to make a run in the Big Ten Tournament.

 

[JonDMiller]

If Iowa goes 4-1 down the stretch, they are going to be the 6 seed.

 

[hawkfan33]

Looks like it won't happen but I would love another shot against OSU. I think we take them down on a neutral court.

 

[kirby]

Looks like it won't happen but I would love another shot against OSU. I think we take them down on a neutral court.

I would take a shot at any of them. I really think this team just needs a little confidence and somewhat decent shooting-it has not played a great game yet-and we are talking close to 20 wins.

 

[ssckelley]

Looking at those brackets I sure hope there is no upsets in the first round because the 2nd round and beyond look like solid matchups up and down the bracket.

Indiana (1) vs Minnesota (8)
Michigan (4) vs Ohio State (5)
Michigan St (2) vs Illinois (7)
Wisconsin (3) vs Iowa (6)

Generally I root for upsets but not this year (at least not in the first round), I would love to see these matchups on a neutral court in the second round. It is easy to see why the tournament sold out, this could be the best BTT ever.

 

[Foval21]

I would take a shot at any of them. I really think this team just needs a little confidence and somewhat decent shooting-it has not played a great game yet-and we are talking close to 20 wins.

I agree that I would like to see any match up as I think iowa is a hard out for any team when they play their game. But I would say that michigan isn't a good match up for iowa the way their team is built. But the way the two teams are playing iowa should make a better game out of it than the last time.

 

[lendog691]

Jom you think we'll lose a game we shouldn't yet?

 

[JonDMiller]

Jon you think we'll lose a game we shouldn't yet?

I am a tad worried about tomorrow

 

[StanzisLettuce]

I am a tad worried about tomorrow

I would like to think that Fran has this team past that point where Nebby jumps up and gets them, but I feel the same way. Too many distractions with this game. Hopefully they come out and get on top quick and remove all doubt early.

 

[nationalchamps]

I am a tad worried about tomorrow

Same here....just one of those feelings.

 

[BrueCrew3]

My gut says Iowa will slot in at 7. I just have a bad feeling about Illinoy. (I hope I'm wrong.)

Even with that, I would like our chances against a #2 MSU.

GO HAWKS!!!

 

[clicheusername3]

Can't wait to start projecting the NIT brackets! Woohoo!

 

[aaronzuriel]

I am a tad worried about tomorrow

I am too.. all Hawkeye fans are. If we had 2 or 3 NBA ballers in the starting line-up we could all relax. At the same time my confidence level for a win is at least 85 to 100 percent.

These kids are too focused and know they can't lose any more and still get an invite to the dance.

Jon, I still don't get your poo.. pooing of the Hawks this year... totally low-balling them. I harken back to the on 80 percent confidence level of IA over PSU at home. 4 or 5 games ago in which you didn't de-attach from the Hawks and know they would win.

At what point will you give in that these kids and the coaching staff are good... I mean really good enough.... and are going to be an NCAA tournament team and win at least 1 game and maybe 2 or 3 depending upon seedings and match-ups.

Don't be afraid of being a homer... it's OK to be objective and know your college/Big Ten BB.