Probability

I upset people because I base my thoughts off of observable data and kind of expect others to do the same.

Nailed it. For some reason this does seem to upset people.

I would say that if we were LOADED on both sides of the ball and ST then it might be a 1:20 or 1:30 shot considering how everything has to just line right to even get a title shot. Maybe. SOS, injuries, perception, early season rankings all play into this and are largely not something that a team has much control over.
 
So what do you suppose the probability is of this team surprising EVERYONE, overcoming the difficulty of so much coaching attrition and going 12-0 and winning the Champ game?

I don't really think this will happen, but it's nice to dream about it. Personally I think the odds are about 1/100. But about 1/50 in winning the champ game but not having a perfect record. And maybe 1/20 in even getting to the champ game.

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Ok...I'm not sure where the OP is coming from. This discussion was warranted in 2010 with the players returning from an Orange Bowl win. That team really was close to being the caliber of team to pull off an undefeated B10 season. Oh, but what a foray into the desert, a fake punt, memorability/tattoo boy, and Dan Persa can do to you. You lose your will after that.

I'm of the mind that this 2012 team will be better than people think. The schedule, as MissouriHerk suggests is the weakest thing I've seen. I'm feeling like Wisconsin with the string of home games after the opener. Let's face it, we will have home field in Chicago also. I think JVB takes a big step forward this year...and I thought he was pretty good last year. Guys just flat out dropped balls...which I think hurt us more than people realize. In my opinion, if Reese can build a DL that surprises to the upside...this team can win 9 games and possibly more with this schedule. The blocks are there...C Davis, Bigach, Cooper, J. Johnson and maybe a few more that have potential that need to make the leap. Who knows, maybe an o-lineman makes a change to the DL and plugs a gap well to keep our LB's free to make plays. This is the key to our season.

I think the offense will be fine. There is a ton of talent and experience coming back in the o-line, and throw in a few young guys that have the potential to be first round picks (Blythe in particular)...I think this will be interesting. My guess is that Davis is going to build the team around JVB and say, this guys accuracy is going to keep the chains moving. He will use him like he did McCoy. Out patterns, crossing patterns...short stuff that gives receivers the chance to move the chains. I like his rhetoric about extending the play and not locking in on people. If JVB gets that right, he will have a big year.
 
LOL.

I'd settle for beating Debbie and the Suckeyes.

Lose at home to the clowns and Captain Clown can start looking for a new job.
 
I'm lazy and didn't feel like typing B1G Champ game, so that is what I meant. Because even if we go 13-0 there's no guarantee we'd go to the national championship game. So I was taking the bowl game out of the equation..

I don't think 1/20 in going to B1G Champ game is totally crazy, I mean there's essentially a 1/6 assuming all teams have an equal chance.. But let's face it I was just throwing out some numbers. I don't think it'll happen. I'm not that optimistic about the coming season. And I don't think my numbers are especially optimistic.

You don't think giving Iowa a 1/6 probability of the champ game is optimistic? The very point is that all things are NOT equal.

We gonna be bad. If the Hawkeyes win 7 this will be a Kurt is God kinda year.
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Got bored. Here you go...

Percent chance of winning
70%: Northern Illinois at Chicago
51%: ISU
90%: Northern Iowa
70%: Central Michigan
70%: Minnesota (HC)
20%: at Mich. St.
20%: Penn. St.
40%: at justNorthwestern
51%: at Indiana
51%: Purdue
10%: at Michigan
40%: Nebraska

Total percent chance of undefeated regular season: 0.0026%
Odds of undefeated regular season: 1 in 38,157

Percent chance 0-12: 0.0066%
Odds of 0-12: 1 in 15,182


Percent chance of winning B1G Championship Game: 50% (if we get there, why not?)

Total percent chance of winning B1G w/ undefeated record: 0.0013%
Total odds of winning B1G w/ undefeated record: 1 in 76,314


Percent chance of winning BCS Championship game: 33%

Total percent chance of winning MNC w/ undefeated record: 0.0004%
Total odds of winning MNC w/ undefeated record: 1 in 228,941
 
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Got bored. Here you go...

Percent chance of winning
70%: Northern Illinois at Chicago
51%: ISU
90%: Northern Iowa
70%: Central Michigan
70%: Minnesota (HC)
20%: at Mich. St.
20%: Penn. St.
40%: at justNorthwestern
51%: at Indiana
51%: Purdue
10%: at Michigan
40%: Nebraska

Total percent chance of undefeated regular season: 0.0026%
Odds of undefeated regular season: 1 in 38,157

Percent chance 0-12: 0.0066%
Odds of 0-12: 1 in 15,182


Percent chance of winning B1G Championship Game: 50% (if we get there, why not?)

Total percent chance of winning B1G: 0.0013%
Total odds of winning B1G: 1 in 76,314


Percent chance of winning BCS Championship game: 33%

Total percent chance of winning MNC: 0.0004%
Total odds of winning MNC: 1 in 228,941

Odds of winning the B1G are considerably higher (even with your numbers) because it's very likely that a Legends team with 2-3 losses will play in the championship game.
 
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