Probability of Rose Bowl
- Thread starter WINthePIG
- Start date
Here are the odds I came up with. I based them all off the history of the games played in modern Iowa football (which I'm considering 2002-present)
I also added 4 variables:
1) +/- 5% If either team has an advantage in the city they will be playing
2) +/- 10% If the 2 previous meetings had been won/loss by 20+ points each
3) +/- 10% If the 2 previous meetings have both been shutouts
4) +/- 5% If the average win/loss over 8 years is 17 points
These variables will help fit in teams with home field advantage, if certain teams play other teams better than others, it will also factor in recent history between the teams.
IOWA VS. INDIANA
4-2
2-1 in Indiana
Avg. Score 32-21
We win 66% of the time
+5% us for having an advantage record in Indiana
+10% us for have 2 previous games with wins over 20 each
We have a 81% chance of winning this game.
IOWA VS. NORTHWESTERN
2-4
1-1 There
Avg Score: 25-20
We have a 33% chance of winning this game
IOWA VS. MINNESOTA
7-1
3-1 There
Avg. Score: 35-18
We win 87% of the games
+5% us for having an advantage record there
+10% us for having the last 2 games both be shutouts
+5% us for having the average score be 17+ points
We have a 107% chance of winning this game
IOWA VS. OHIO ST.
1-4
1-1 Home
Avg. Score: 17-24
We have a 20% chance of winning this game.
Now, there are 2 other factors that must be placed in. These are based off the chances to win consecutive games. Which is real important in the situation we are in right now.
1) Iowa wins 4 straight final regular season games. We have accomplished this 2 out of 8 years. Giving us a 25% chance.
2) Wisconsin loses at least 1 of their 4 final regular season games. They have lost at least once in the final 4 games 7 out of 8 times. Making it an 87% chance it will happen.
Based off all these probabilities. .81/.33/1.07/.2/.25/.87
We have a 1.2% chance of making the Rose Bowl
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For those of you that want more hope than that, and would not like to figure in who we are playing or our history against them.
We can just figure based off recent history of Iowa winning the last 4 games, and Wisconsin losing 1+ of the last 4.
In this scenario we have a 21.7% chance of making the Rose Bowl (a little better)
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Since that doesn't look too promising, I've also figured out the odds of us going to a difference BCS bowl. After all there have been 2 Big Ten teams in a BCS bowl 7 of the last 8 years. So there's hope right???
A couple things we need to happen:
1) Wisconsin has to win their last 4 consecutive games. They have done this 1 out of 8 times. Giving a 12% chance of this happening
2) Michigan St. needs to lose 1+ of their last 4. A BCS game would take a 11-1 MSU team over a 10-2 Iowa team. Them losing would help us for that 2nd BCS bowl. They have lost 1+ of their last 4 games 8 out of 8 times. Giving a 100% chance of happening.
3) The BCS would still need to take 2 Big 10 teams, if they are elgible. This has happened 7 out of the last 8 times. Giving an 87% Chance of happening.
Recap of the probabilities:
Beat Indiana 81%
Beat N'Western 33%
Beat Minnesota 107%
Beat Ohio St. 20%
Wisc win out 12%
MSU lose 1 100%
BCS takes 2 Big Ten teams 87%
In this scenario we have a 0.5% chance of making a BCS bowl besides the Rose Bowl.
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Once again, for the optimists that would rather not figure in who we are playing, or our history against them. We can do the simple configuration.
1. We win last 4 consecutive (not based on who we play) 25%
2. Wisc. win out 12%
3. MSU lose 1 100%
4. BCS take 2 87%
In this scenario we'd have a 2.6% chance of making a BCS bowl other than the Rose Bowl.
None of these are looking too good. With 4 games left, and 4 teams in the running there are too many scenarios that could make us end up in the Capital One Bowl to configure them all. Will have to wait a week or so.
I also added 4 variables:
1) +/- 5% If either team has an advantage in the city they will be playing
2) +/- 10% If the 2 previous meetings had been won/loss by 20+ points each
3) +/- 10% If the 2 previous meetings have both been shutouts
4) +/- 5% If the average win/loss over 8 years is 17 points
These variables will help fit in teams with home field advantage, if certain teams play other teams better than others, it will also factor in recent history between the teams.
IOWA VS. INDIANA
4-2
2-1 in Indiana
Avg. Score 32-21
We win 66% of the time
+5% us for having an advantage record in Indiana
+10% us for have 2 previous games with wins over 20 each
We have a 81% chance of winning this game.
IOWA VS. NORTHWESTERN
2-4
1-1 There
Avg Score: 25-20
We have a 33% chance of winning this game
IOWA VS. MINNESOTA
7-1
3-1 There
Avg. Score: 35-18
We win 87% of the games
+5% us for having an advantage record there
+10% us for having the last 2 games both be shutouts
+5% us for having the average score be 17+ points
We have a 107% chance of winning this game
IOWA VS. OHIO ST.
1-4
1-1 Home
Avg. Score: 17-24
We have a 20% chance of winning this game.
Now, there are 2 other factors that must be placed in. These are based off the chances to win consecutive games. Which is real important in the situation we are in right now.
1) Iowa wins 4 straight final regular season games. We have accomplished this 2 out of 8 years. Giving us a 25% chance.
2) Wisconsin loses at least 1 of their 4 final regular season games. They have lost at least once in the final 4 games 7 out of 8 times. Making it an 87% chance it will happen.
Based off all these probabilities. .81/.33/1.07/.2/.25/.87
We have a 1.2% chance of making the Rose Bowl
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==========================================
For those of you that want more hope than that, and would not like to figure in who we are playing or our history against them.
We can just figure based off recent history of Iowa winning the last 4 games, and Wisconsin losing 1+ of the last 4.
In this scenario we have a 21.7% chance of making the Rose Bowl (a little better)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
=============================================================
Since that doesn't look too promising, I've also figured out the odds of us going to a difference BCS bowl. After all there have been 2 Big Ten teams in a BCS bowl 7 of the last 8 years. So there's hope right???
A couple things we need to happen:
1) Wisconsin has to win their last 4 consecutive games. They have done this 1 out of 8 times. Giving a 12% chance of this happening
2) Michigan St. needs to lose 1+ of their last 4. A BCS game would take a 11-1 MSU team over a 10-2 Iowa team. Them losing would help us for that 2nd BCS bowl. They have lost 1+ of their last 4 games 8 out of 8 times. Giving a 100% chance of happening.
3) The BCS would still need to take 2 Big 10 teams, if they are elgible. This has happened 7 out of the last 8 times. Giving an 87% Chance of happening.
Recap of the probabilities:
Beat Indiana 81%
Beat N'Western 33%
Beat Minnesota 107%
Beat Ohio St. 20%
Wisc win out 12%
MSU lose 1 100%
BCS takes 2 Big Ten teams 87%
In this scenario we have a 0.5% chance of making a BCS bowl besides the Rose Bowl.
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===============================================================
Once again, for the optimists that would rather not figure in who we are playing, or our history against them. We can do the simple configuration.
1. We win last 4 consecutive (not based on who we play) 25%
2. Wisc. win out 12%
3. MSU lose 1 100%
4. BCS take 2 87%
In this scenario we'd have a 2.6% chance of making a BCS bowl other than the Rose Bowl.
None of these are looking too good. With 4 games left, and 4 teams in the running there are too many scenarios that could make us end up in the Capital One Bowl to configure them all. Will have to wait a week or so.
hawkstats1979
Well-Known Member
There is almost always one huge upset in the Big 10 during conference play--
2009
Purdue over Ohio State
Northwestern over Iowa
2008
Indiana over Northwestern
Michigan over Minnesota
2007
Northwestern over Michigan State
Illinois over Ohio State
2006
Northwestern over Iowa
So far, I don't see what would qualify as a huge upset in conference play. Someone is due. My hope is that Wisconsin stubs its toe on Purdue--more likely is a NW upset to end the season.
2009
Purdue over Ohio State
Northwestern over Iowa
2008
Indiana over Northwestern
Michigan over Minnesota
2007
Northwestern over Michigan State
Illinois over Ohio State
2006
Northwestern over Iowa
So far, I don't see what would qualify as a huge upset in conference play. Someone is due. My hope is that Wisconsin stubs its toe on Purdue--more likely is a NW upset to end the season.
Iowatailgate
Well-Known Member
If Iowa wins out, they're playing in a BCS bowl. It might not be the Rose Bowl, but they will be in the BCS Bowl.
Beat Ohio State the 2nd to last game of the season looks amazing on the resume. That win will jump Iowa quite a bit.
Remember, you just need to be in the top 14(I believe) to be in a BCS discussion talk.
Iowa doesn't have 1 bad loss. The 2 teams that beat them are in the top 15.
TCU vs UTAH - Loser of that is eliminated from BCS at large bid
Alabama vs LSU - Loser of that is eliminated from BCS at large bid
Stanford vs Arizona - Lose of that is eliminated from BCS at large
Iowa beats OSU - OSU eliminated from BCS at large
Iowa will jump MSU in the BCS standings after beating OSU
Big 12 will only get 1 team in the BCS
Oklahoma plays @ Baylor and @OKState. They will drop one of those games.
I really don't see how Iowa misses out on a BCS bowl if they win out.
HawkeyeDenis
Well-Known Member
I give Iowa an excellent chance of winning three of their last four games, but as we all know the Ohio State game is a tough one. If Iowa wins out they will jump Michigan State. So Iowa's chances are not predicated on MSU losing. And if Iowa beats Ohio State, then they should move ahead of them. But that will still leaves Wisconsin and the chances of Wisconsin losing are very low.
At this point the road to the Rose Bowl is through Wisconsin.
At this point the road to the Rose Bowl is through Wisconsin.
hawkfan8691
Well-Known Member
Unless we make the Rose Bowl, the chances of us making the BCS are tough. No way a bowl takes us over Wisky
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hawkfarmer
Well-Known Member
Not necessarily, if Iowa MSU and Wisky win out, MSU to Rose, and Wisky would go to BCS over Iowa. Iowa to Cap one or Outback. So, there is no guarantee even if Iowa wins out that they go BCS.
beaverdaleguy
Well-Known Member
But you also arent factoring in variables, such as injuries in a given week, weather, Norm (i dont care what people say, he is a variable for our defense), playing times, opponents records (if a team has 5 wins but is mediocre, they are more dangerous than if they have 6 wins or even 4 wins, because they want that bowl game)
This.
Like I said, winning out just isn't enough. We need Wisconsin or MSU to drop a game, and looking at their remaining schedule, it's highly unlikely.
