Probability of Rose Bowl

W

WINthePIG

Well-Known Member
I am a math teacher.

Basic probability rules say "that for multiple independent events to ALL occur, you multiply the probabilities of each individual event" (Note: We could argue the events are NOT completely Independent.) Therefore, I figure for us to go to the Rose Bowl we need to have the following occur:

1. Beat Indiana (85%)
2. Beat Northwestern (75%)
3. Beat Ohio State (55%)
4. Beat Beat Minnesota (95%)
5. Have Wisconsin lose a game (this is tougher - I'll calculate 55%)

We can argue on the individual probabilities, but I have estimated HIGH (IMO), as a Hawk fan.

Therefore, (.85)*(0.75)*(0.55)*(0.95)*(0.55) = .183 = 18.3%.

That stinks!! Only an 18% chance we get there. The logic is mathematically sound.

Stick your own numbers in, see what you think!

Go HAWKS!!
 
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IU 75%
NW 55% (pesky Cats)
OSU 45% (have to go with history)
Minny 90%
Wisconsin Losing 1 more game 65%
.75*.55*.45*.90*.65= 10.9%
 
WINthePIG said:
I am a math teacher.

Basic probability rules say "that for multiple independent events to ALL occur, you multiply the probabilities of each individual event". Therefore, I figure for us to go to the Rose Bowl we need to have the following occur:

1. Beat Indiana (85%)
2. Beat Northwestern (75%)
3. Beat Ohio State (55%)
4. Beat Beat Minnesota (95%)
5. Have Wisconsin lose a game (this is tougher - I'll calculate 55%)

We can argue on the individual probabilities, but I have estimated HIGH (IMO), as a Hawk fan.

Therefore, (.85)*(0.75)*(0.55)*(0.95)*(0.55) = .183 = 18.3%.

That stinks!! Only an 18% chance we get there. The logic is mathematically sound.

Stick your own numbers in, see what you think!

Go HAWKS!!
Click to expand...

18% chance as we sit here today. However, it's not a static number. If injuries befall one of the other teams (including Wisconsin) the percentages go up. Further, if Iowa continues to win, does their chance of winning the next game(s) also go up.
 
I am not a math teacher.

But you guys are only giving Iowa a 33% and 16% chance (respectively) of running the table? I think our odds are better than that.
 
CallMeDragon said:
I am not a math teacher.

But you guys are only giving Iowa a 33% and 16% chance (respectively) of running the table? I think our odds are better than that.
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This is my entire reason for starting the thread . . . .

Most of us think we have a really, fairly reasonable chance at making this happen. The numbers tell otherwise. We really only have a small chance.

However, even a low probablility event can still happen!

Go HAWKS!!
 
homes said:
18% chance as we sit here today. However, it's not a static number. If injuries befall one of the other teams (including Wisconsin) the percentages go up. Further, if Iowa continues to win, does their chance of winning the next game(s) also go up.
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One might argue that winning a given week might DECREASE the chance of winning the following week.

It definately works the other way. For example, Iowa loses to Wisconsin . . . . I think that REALLY helped our chances against MSU.

You are correct in thinking that the numbers may NOT be static, however. In math terms, the five events are probably not completely INDEPENDENT of each other. One CAN affect the other, somewhat. Good point, Homes!
 
At this point in time, will give Iowa a 50% chance of running the table and give Wisconsion a 50% chance of dropping a game...giving us a 25% chance at a Rose Bowl bid.
 
WINthePIG said:
This is my entire reason for starting the thread . . . .

Most of us think we have a really, fairly reasonable chance at making this happen. The numbers tell otherwise. We really only have a small chance.

However, even a low probablility event can still happen!

Go HAWKS!!
Click to expand...

I like your thinking, however, you assume independence. In reality, each game affects the other.

Edit: I now see your discussion on this with another poster.
 
OK, here's my "new math" way to calculate, using your probabilities...I'm taking the average!!!:

(85+75+55+95+55)/5=73% !!

I'm likin' this!
 
WINthePIG said:
I am a math teacher.

Basic probability rules say "that for multiple independent events to ALL occur, you multiply the probabilities of each individual event". Therefore, I figure for us to go to the Rose Bowl we need to have the following occur:

1. Beat Indiana (85%)
2. Beat Northwestern (75%)
3. Beat Ohio State (55%)
4. Beat Beat Minnesota (95%)
5. Have Wisconsin lose a game (this is tougher - I'll calculate 55%)

We can argue on the individual probabilities, but I have estimated HIGH (IMO), as a Hawk fan.

Therefore, (.85)*(0.75)*(0.55)*(0.95)*(0.55) = .183 = 18.3%.

That stinks!! Only an 18% chance we get there. The logic is mathematically sound.

Stick your own numbers in, see what you think!

Go HAWKS!!
Click to expand...

1. 75%
2. 60%
3. 40%
4. 80%
5. 23.5% (5a*5b*5c*5d) see below
Therefore: 3.4% for Rose Bowl and a 14.4% chance of winning out for Iowa.


5a. 95% Beat Purdue
5b. 75% Beat IU (same as Iowa)
5c. 55% Beat Michigan
5d. 60% Beat NW (same as Iowa)
 
hawkeye12345 said:
1. 75%
2. 60%
3. 40%
4. 80%
5. 23.5% (5a*5b*5c*5d) see below
Therefore: 3.4% for Rose Bowl and a 14.4% chance of winning out for Iowa.


5a. 95% Beat Purdue
5b. 75% Beat IU (same as Iowa)
5c. 55% Beat Michigan
5d. 60% Beat NW (same as Iowa)
Click to expand...

Number 5. should be 76.5% (1 - 23.5%) since your 5a-d were the prob of Wisky winning all remaining games.

Brings you up to 11% chance of Roses for Iowa.
 
To be true, don't all of the other teams who could make the Rose Bowl have their own game statistics that ultimately have to equal up to 81.7 % probability?
 
Let's face it guys, if we were going to lose a game in the Big Ten, losing to MSU, Wisconsin or tOSU wouldn't have been the options to choose. We're pretty much hoping for a Wisconsin loss that I just don't see happening. Sorry guys, even if we win out, we're likely to be left out of the BCS this year. The price you pay for losing to Arizona and Wisco, I guess.
 
MBHHawk said:
To be true, don't all of the other teams who could make the Rose Bowl have their own game statistics that ultimately have to equal up to 81.7 % probability?
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Yes, that's true.

The true probability of us making the Rose would be what WINthePIG said plus probabilities of other very unlikely events like Iowa losing one game, but the other 3 contenders all losing two or more remaining games. In the end you would have to add up a lot of very low probability events or you could just say the probability is approximately equal to WTP's equation.
 
hawkfan340 said:

Yes, that's true.

The true probability of us making the Rose would be what WINthePIG said plus probabilities of other very unlikely events like Iowa losing one game, but the other 3 contenders all losing two or more remaining games. In the end you would have to add up a lot of very low probability events or you could just say the probability is approximately equal to WTP's equation.
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You're right on the money!

Did I mention I am a middle school teacher?! . . . . . I like to keep things simple!
 
WINthePIG said:
You're right on the money!

Did I mention I am a middle school teacher?! . . . . . I like to keep things simple!
Click to expand...

I don't blame you. You'd have to slog through a lot potential outcomes otherwise (some of which are completely absurd... like the top 4 all losing 3 games and Wisky losing all 4 or something). Wouldn't be fun, even for guys who like math.

For the record, here are my picks:

Win at Indiana (90%)
Win at NW (85%)
Win against OSU (45%)
Win at Minny (90%)
Wisky losing at least one (50%)

Approximate chance of Roses: 15.49%
 
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