guffus
Well-Known Member
This would be better if they show the score as 0-0
Predictions for Minny?
- Thread starter NorthKCHawk
- Start date
kicker22
Well-Known Member
I'm predicting the secondary gets things figured out and our special teams get back to their old ways as Dakin gets more lift out of his punts and gets the hangtime back where it should be. Offense takes a step back from recent numbers but continues to show improvement. I'm thinking Hawks by 10 at 24-14.
We will be up by 9 at half (16-7) and then do virtually nothing during the second half. Minnesota will score 7 (16-14) and we will have a 2 point lead and the ball with 2 minutes left and not achieve a first down. We will then punt it back to Minnesota with 1:45 left on the clock and then watch with a feeling of great dismay as they drive down needing only a field goal to win. If our defense stops them, we win 16-14. If they do not, we lose 16-17. I'm feeling optimistic, so I'm going with Iowa wins 16-14.
Dadman
Well-Known Member
Please no! In that case, prediction changed. Ia 5-Mn 0. ( i am keeping the safety on the scoreboard!)
Fryowa
Administrator
This isn’t aimed at you at all, but the turnover battle thing always bugs me. It’s like saying if we score more points we’re going to win. Turnovers are tied to an almost infinite number of different situations by offense, defense and special teams that you can’t really tie it to any phase of the game. Turnovers lead to points in an equal myriad of ways which usually means winning.
Side note to go along with it—since 2017 Iowa football is number 2 in the nation in turnover margin. This team is FAR from the #2 team in college football since then. Which means Iowa is likely the one of, if not the worst team in college football in converting the TO margin into victories. I’d say this is head-scratching, but…you know, offense…
Complimentary Football?
As a counterpoint, last year Iowa was negative in TO difference, and they won 10 games.
NorthKCHawk
Well-Known Member
I agree that turnovers don't mean everything, but its damn important.
I did not know that stat, but it does not surprise me. My reaction to that is that it partially explains why Iowa football overachieves. Iowa is a Top 20 football program over the last decade. Probably 15-20 range. But, its recruiting prowess is usually in the 30s or 40s. Iowa under KF has always fought above its weight class in terms of talent coming in versus the competition. One way to explain that is excellent coaching, and part of that coaching is the philosophy of protecting the ball on offense (often times to a fault) and playing great ball hawking defense.
So, I don't have a problem saying that if we win the turnover battle Saturday, our chances of winning go up significantly because that is Iowa's DNA.
Minny is still a run-first team, and they've got a good RB...again. Look for them to chew up the clock, and have a number of long drives vs Iowa's renewed 'bend but don't break' defense. MN's defense will slow down Iowa's run game, but Lester will keep probing until he finds something that works -- if McNamara is on his game.
One can hope that Iowa has been holding back some key parts of its offensive scheme, i.e. QB drop-backs and then passing to RBs out in the flat -- which we heard about all spring and summer but haven't seen yet this fall.
Iowa as a 2.5 pt fave surprises me -- usually home field is worth 3 pts, so that means the odds-makers (or bettors) believe the Hawks are 5-6 pt faves, which I'm not buying.
If this game was a morning or afternoon game, I'd go with the Hawks, because I think they have more talent. But this being a night game, the crowd will be insane, both teams highly motivated...in the end, the atmosphere makes the difference:
Gophers: 19
Hawks: 13
One can hope that Iowa has been holding back some key parts of its offensive scheme, i.e. QB drop-backs and then passing to RBs out in the flat -- which we heard about all spring and summer but haven't seen yet this fall.
Iowa as a 2.5 pt fave surprises me -- usually home field is worth 3 pts, so that means the odds-makers (or bettors) believe the Hawks are 5-6 pt faves, which I'm not buying.
If this game was a morning or afternoon game, I'd go with the Hawks, because I think they have more talent. But this being a night game, the crowd will be insane, both teams highly motivated...in the end, the atmosphere makes the difference:
Gophers: 19
Hawks: 13
NorthKCHawk
Well-Known Member
The stadium is tiny and 20% of the fans will be Hawk fans. 35,000 Natty Light soaked Goofers can't be that loud. We have a veteran team. Their high school stadium doesn't scare me.
I will add to your analysis in that we gotta get the TEs touches early and often. Screens, waggles, squat routes, whatever.
