PREDICTION: Iowa v NIU: What to Expect from the Hawkeyes

You say we'll be better in every one of those categories yet you don't blame Vandy for the issues on offense. So, seemingly him being gone will not affect anything and we have the same HC and OC.
What exactly changed that will make the offense better?

Everyone keeps insisting we will be better but can't supply solid reasoning for this, we could be better as some new starters are coming in but we could be worse.

I also dont buy that Greg Davis in year two will be better because his system will be firmly in place and the kids will get it now. GD has shown his system tends to only work with elite talent, we don't have anywhere near the talent of his good Texas teams. His system seem to be avoiding first downs.

review11.jpg
 
I felt that all last year that it was the changes and the receivers being clueless due to the changes that basically caused so much trouble....and Kirk has said several things this summer that support that...this, from my write up on Kirk from Chicago:

SUPPORT FOR VANDENBERG: Rare is the time where Kirk Ferentz will get within a mile of the proverbial bus, much less throw anyone underneath it. While he didn’t do that in Chicago, he certainly went out of his way at one point in time to stand up for James Vandenberg and his play from last year. No one had asked him about Vandenberg. Ferentz had been asked a question about Greg Davis and if things would be better for him and the offense in year two. Then he was asked about the quarterback battle this year and what his expectations were. He said:

“I don’t have any expectations other than hoping all three will look improved and I think they will. You can’t predict it, but looking back on things, after going through a spring where they were really running the offense and looking at film all summer and then 7 on 7’s, I would assume they are all farther down the road. It will be a matter of what they do in camp but that will be based on how the rest of the team supports them. Whomever is playing quarterback this year has a good chance to be better supported than James Vandenberg was last year…. James ended up being a victim of circumstance more than anything, I think. James is a great football player and a great young man.â€

Again, Kirk didn’t throw anyone under the bus but he certainly insinuates that Vandenberg didn’t get a fair sendoff and the people around him were not playing on his level. I think we can point the finger at the wide receiver position first and foremost. Then the midseason injuries on the offensive line were devastating to the offense, not to mention the new system and they hybrid offense I think Iowa was running; the best of Greg and Best of Kirk mashed up together to create something less appealing than a Best of Air Supply download. It’s rare for Kirk to drift into this territory.

While I agree with most of what you said. I can't get past this. While I think it's totally fair to put some of it on the receivers, I don't feel that you can put it on them first and foremost and then say that "the people playing around him weren't playing on his level. The fact was our QB play stunk and our receivers stunk.

They were all playing at the same level and that was to put it bluntly: poorly. Sorry, but Vandy doesn't get a free pass, nor should he. I'm not trying to throw him under the bus as he had a lot of major changes implemented into his game, but he and his receivers played at the same level last year and unfortunately it was a level that contributed to a 4-8 season. While Vandy didn't get the sendoff that many thought he should have, he deserved what he got as it was his play that earned the send off.

No one, whether it be QB play or reciever play played at a level to lift the offense and IMO to put more blame on the receivers and give the QB a pass, or blame the QB and let the receivers avoid the blame is rediculous. The offense played poorly at a very poor level, as a whole they equally deserve the criticism they get.

**Edit: should add Jon that I wasn't necesarily going after you but that line of though. I'm just a firm believer that it comes down to playing as a unit and the numbers speak volume as to what level that unit played at as a whole.**
 
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I won't say JVB was a great QB, but he was much better than he looked last year. I believe he was looked at as the top pro QB prospect in the Big 10 after his junior year. He didn't just forget how to play QB.

That being said, I think everyone on the offense was better than they looked last year. I have zero faith in Greg Davis and his offense. To call our offense a dumpster fire last year is an insult to dumpster fires. I sure hope he proves me wrong.

I do think we'll be better on offense due to another season of familiarity. Rudock is apparently very intelligent and it seems to take a brain surgeon to run GD's offense. OL should be a strength and we will certainly be in better shape with the running game. It alls comes down to whether we can show any ability to pass the ball. If we can show even a slight threat, the running game opens, which keeps the O on the field, which allows the D to rest, which allows us to win games.
 
I am picking Iowa 24 NIU 17. I think Iowa will be able to run the ball pretty well vs the youngish NIU front seven. I also think that the defense will be well-prepared for Lynch with a whole summer to read about his Heisman campaign....he is good, but not Braxton Miller or Taylor Martinez or Devin Gardener good. As for Vandy....he had a bad year, but as horrible as some folks try to paint it..he was still #4 in total yards passing in the Big Ten....it was bad,but not as bad as some suggest.
 
I felt that all last year that it was the changes and the receivers being clueless due to the changes that basically caused so much trouble....and Kirk has said several things this summer that support that...this, from my write up on Kirk from Chicago:

SUPPORT FOR VANDENBERG: Rare is the time where Kirk Ferentz will get within a mile of the proverbial bus, much less throw anyone underneath it. While he didn’t do that in Chicago, he certainly went out of his way at one point in time to stand up for James Vandenberg and his play from last year. No one had asked him about Vandenberg. Ferentz had been asked a question about Greg Davis and if things would be better for him and the offense in year two. Then he was asked about the quarterback battle this year and what his expectations were. He said:

“I don’t have any expectations other than hoping all three will look improved and I think they will. You can’t predict it, but looking back on things, after going through a spring where they were really running the offense and looking at film all summer and then 7 on 7’s, I would assume they are all farther down the road. It will be a matter of what they do in camp but that will be based on how the rest of the team supports them. Whomever is playing quarterback this year has a good chance to be better supported than James Vandenberg was last year…. James ended up being a victim of circumstance more than anything, I think. James is a great football player and a great young man.”

Again, Kirk didn’t throw anyone under the bus but he certainly insinuates that Vandenberg didn’t get a fair sendoff and the people around him were not playing on his level. I think we can point the finger at the wide receiver position first and foremost. Then the midseason injuries on the offensive line were devastating to the offense, not to mention the new system and they hybrid offense I think Iowa was running; the best of Greg and Best of Kirk mashed up together to create something less appealing than a Best of Air Supply download. It’s rare for Kirk to drift into this territory.

I think when KF says the bolded quote, he is also talking about the coaching staff, and himself as well. I think KF is fully aware of the fact that the coaching staff did a very poor job last year in switching offenses.
 
Everone I have talked to say we had a lot of problems last and J.V. was the least of them. I have posted on here before that as the year went along he did seem to lose confidence not just in his recivers and OL But in himself and the system. But when I saw him missing guys by five yards I know the WR just were not where they are supose to be. The QB always has to take some blame when things go wrong. But I just dont think he was the big problem as many on here do. JMO
 
I am picking Iowa 24 NIU 17. I think Iowa will be able to run the ball pretty well vs the youngish NIU front seven. I also think that the defense will be well-prepared for Lynch with a whole summer to read about his Heisman campaign....he is good, but not Braxton Miller or Taylor Martinez or Devin Gardener good. As for Vandy....he had a bad year, but as horrible as some folks try to paint it..he was still #4 in total yards passing in the Big Ten....it was bad,but not as bad as some suggest.

Not to be a jerk, but I had to look this up because it didn't seem possible.


Big 10 QB rankings:


Completion % - 8th (only 10 had enough passes to qualify for this ranking)
Yards / Attempt - 9th (same as above)
TD's - 12th (tied)
INT's - 5th
Rating - 8th
PASSING YARDS - 5th

Passing yards - He finished behind McGloin, Martinez, Coffman and Maxwell. He finished ahead of Braxton Miller, Marve, Scheelhause, Robinson, etc.

So not knocking the OP. Off by one spot and I must say I was surprsied to see this.



2012 Big Ten College Football Individual Statistics Leaders for Passing - ESPN
 
Not to be a jerk, but I had to look this up because it didn't seem possible.


Big 10 QB rankings:


Completion % - 8th (only 10 had enough passes to qualify for this ranking)
Yards / Attempt - 9th (same as above)
TD's - 12th (tied)
INT's - 5th
Rating - 8th
PASSING YARDS - 5th

Passing yards - He finished behind McGloin, Martinez, Coffman and Maxwell. He finished ahead of Braxton Miller, Marve, Scheelhause, Robinson, etc.

So not knocking the OP. Off by one spot and I must say I was surprsied to see this.



2012 Big Ten College Football Individual Statistics Leaders for Passing - ESPN


I think the fact is that stats don't necessarily support the eye test. Had we finished more drives or had james threw more TD passes or looked down field more often I think it would have changed the public perception greatly. I'll be honest, the fact that we failed to find the endzone as a team through the air had a major impact on my thoughts of him as a QB. Not fair to him by any means but I'm being totally honest. I saw our lack of success through the air, regardless of the actual numbers, and it greatly influenced my perception of how I viewed him, as well as our offense, on the field.
 
You say we'll be better in every one of those categories yet you don't blame Vandy for the issues on offense. So, seemingly him being gone will not affect anything and we have the same HC and OC.
What exactly changed that will make the offense better?

Everyone keeps insisting we will be better but can't supply solid reasoning for this, we could be better as some new starters are coming in but we could be worse.

I also dont buy that Greg Davis in year two will be better because his system will be firmly in place and the kids will get it now. GD has shown his system tends to only work with elite talent, we don't have anywhere near the talent of his good Texas teams. His system seem to be avoiding first downs.

Playmakers: I'm banking on Powell, Shumpert and Smith busting on the scene as key playmakers and Canzeri and Bullock being used in ways we haven't seen since Fry making the offense 1 score better on average than last year. Add a hungry, talented SR in CJF plus Weisman and the unknown in LeShun Daniels and I think we will be much better on Offense. Lots of talent and depth at TE and one of them may step up. KMM is steady. Plus I'm counting on at least one of our QBs being exponentially more productive than what we saw last year...

Offensive Line: Has really good depth and losing Van Slotten and Donnal vs PSU was a killer. Plus never having a fully healthy RB in B1G play hurt.

D Front 7: I think on D our front 7 will be improved. We have a number of highly recruited and athletic DL that are in yr 2 or 3 of their careers. Cooper, McMinn, LTP, Hardy, Davis, Ekakatie, J Johnson were all highly recruited 3 and 4 Star players. WE seem to have depth and talk of rotating 8 guys. Much of our problem the past 2 yrs stems from the void on the DL left from Coach K running players off left and right.

Defensive Backs:
I think our DBs will be in better position and use better technique with Phil back coaching them up. There's a reason Wilson isn't here. There's a reason Iowa has sent a bunch of 2 star DBs to NFL, because Phil can coach 'em up! He also has some 3 and 4 star talent to work with for the first time. The improvements mentioned on D must be
worth 3 pts overall on average....

Staff Changes: I think the staff changes will help alot too. Kennedy working with WRs sounds like things are going really good and he and GD were together 7-8 yrs at TX. Phil back coaching DBs is huge too and player comments have talked about how much they've improved based on coaching alone. Having Reid, a former DC with decades of experience to help Phil is huge too. Reid > Wilson and EJ.

Upperclassmen: We have 13 starters that are entering their 4th or 5th yr on campus plus 2 backups and 6 starters entering their 3rd year plus 10 more on 2nd team. That's 19 starters with alot of time in the program and total of 31 on 2-deeps plus Powell a JR who figures to factor into things heavily as he gets up to speed.


Schedule seems tougher in 2013, but we trade IU and PSU for OSU and Wisc so that's likely a wash in terms of schedule due to the fact that we lost to both IU and PSU anyway. Doesn't matter if OSU beats us 60-0, counts the same as 3 pt loss to IU. I like our chances with Wisky in Kinnick.

That said, if this team were playing last year's schedule I think we would have won 8 games in 2012 (WMU, ISU, IU, and PU with WMU, IU and PU being 10 pt wins and ISU by 3pts or less).

Prediction: Still hard to predict better than 6-6 until we see them on the field. 8 wins would not shock me, but neither would 5. I think alot of B1G teams are getting a huge benefit of the doubt in replacing what they lost.

Iowa 27 NIU 24
 
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We all get it you hate Vandenberg but to blame him for WR not running right routes..an oline that didn't know how to block most of the time and one CLUELESS OC...well just goes to show how little you watched or how little you know about football, but go on and keep on hating.

I know enough to recognize what it looks like when a QB locks onto a receiver, and can't handle pressure to boot.

Apparently the Minnesota Vikings recognized it too.

I don't hate the Slayer Of Bear. I'd have to know him to hate him or alternatively have him publicly display some glaring moral deficiency.

I do however disapprove of his performance as Iowa's QB.
 
I know enough to recognize what it looks like when a QB locks onto a receiver, and can't handle pressure to boot.

Apparently the Minnesota Vikings recognized it too.

I don't hate the Slayer Of Bear. I'd have to know him to hate him or alternatively have him publicly display some glaring moral deficiency.

I do however disapprove of his performance as Iowa's QB.

It seemed to me he was best suited for the no huddle. Give him too much time to think and he panics. We had this discussion before on here, and most took issue with the idea of running the no huddle more than once a game with him. You coach to your players' strengths.
 
Iowa's OL is suspect, starting TE is a prancing nancy, WRs suck, QB is unproven, RBs are decent

I predict more sucking and more defenses with 8-man boxes ... that we can do nothing about

-----------------

That said I heard an interview with NIU's new coach ... what a gomer! If KF & staff can't out-coach that guy, then we are in big trouble

I'm moving my pick from solid L to toss-up
 
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Yes I did..but at that time it was just me giving my opinion...Kirk basically echoing it was nice..then again some around here might think that's doubly damning.

OK, all bear jokes aside, here's my point:

1) Vandenberg was absolutely horrible about locking onto receivers. Maybe this was because he thought only one of the receivers knew what route to run. Regardless, he locked on like no QB I've ever seen, let alone a veteran one. You could really tell that the opposing defenses were being coached on that as the season devolved.

2) Vandenberg almost never exploited a blitz by dumping it off and making the D pay. If they were coming, he was scattering. Again, opposing defenses caught onto this and made him pay.

We can blame coaching or teammates or other factors for this but the common denominator is the QB.
 
There were a lot of problems last year offensively. The biggest HANDS DOWN is once again KF handcuffing the OC. KOK was used to it and knew what to call to avoid Kirk putting his hands in the cookie jar. Davis I guarantee was shocked by it and we saw the results. I honestly don't see how anyone could have not seen that was clear as day especially last year.
 
Im not saying you are wrong on this. But do you come up with it from watching or being told. Because everything I have ever heard is KF is a big time delegator. Lets his coaches coach. The only exception I have ever heard is he is involved with deciding who is QB
There were a lot of problems last year offensively. The biggest HANDS DOWN is once again KF handcuffing the OC. KOK was used to it and knew what to call to avoid Kirk putting his hands in the cookie jar. Davis I guarantee was shocked by it and we saw the results. I honestly don't see how anyone could have not seen that was clear as day especially last year.
 
There were a lot of problems last year offensively. The biggest HANDS DOWN is once again KF handcuffing the OC. KOK was used to it and knew what to call to avoid Kirk putting his hands in the cookie jar. Davis I guarantee was shocked by it and we saw the results. I honestly don't see how anyone could have not seen that was clear as day especially last year.

This is a good point. Ferentz needs to let his coaches coach. Maybe he thinks that he can't delegate because he has to justify 4 mil per.

Me? I'd delegate the hell out of everything. I'd hire the best person I could find and let him go for it. Same goes for the players, especially the QB. If you don't trust him, if you don't have faith in him, then just direct snap it to Mossad and get on with it already.
 
I know enough to recognize what it looks like when a QB locks onto a receiver, and can't handle pressure to boot.

Apparently the Minnesota Vikings recognized it too.

I don't hate the Slayer Of Bear. I'd have to know him to hate him or alternatively have him publicly display some glaring moral deficiency.

I do however disapprove of his performance as Iowa's QB.

If memory serves, you got all over JVB for having shot and killed said bear last year. It would seem that animosity still exists in some form?
 
I do blame Vandenbearkiller, at least to the extent that he should have realized he was in over his head. How do you not blame a guy who fails to learn how to exploit the blitz? How do you not blame a QB who locks onto receivers like a pit bull locks on to an unwitting pedestrian? The Bear Slayer knew where he was going to throw the ball before the huddle broke, and he was throwing it that way come hell or high water. Or taking the sack. Whichever came first. It was like Northwestern v. Iowa circa 2009 on a loop.

Let's just admit the obvious: Our QB was atrocious last season. He made Jake Snake-Burner Christensen look like John Elway. You can plug any one of our pure rookie QBs in there and it's an instant upgrade. I know I haven't seen any of them play, but I don't need to see any of them play to have @ 98% certainty in that regard.

Look, we get it. You liked Vandensacked as a person. That's fine. But the stats don't lie, and he was the one creating said stats. Sure, his receivers weren't all that, but there were a lot of open receivers that The Slayer never even glanced at. Blaming Greg Davis for that is like blaming the basket for a guy missing free throws. Accountability matters. Let's assign responsibility where it belongs and not ignore the bear err elephant in the room.

ncf_jv_jamesvandenberg_cmg_600.jpg


Too bad you weren't as adept at hitting wide open receivers.

Seems you are as upset with the photo as you are with his play. Maybe more so. Don't let your politics cloud your judgement.
 
OK, all bear jokes aside, here's my point:

1) Vandenberg was absolutely horrible about locking onto receivers. Maybe this was because he thought only one of the receivers knew what route to run.

I actually do think this is the case...I think he was lost because he was in a sea of lost receivers.

You don't go from one of the three best seasons ever by an Iowa QB, 25 TD passes and fewer than 10 INT, to last year, without something huge happening....new offense and incredibly inexperienced receiver corps, those are the answers IMO
 

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