PREDICTION: Iowa v NIU: What to Expect from the Hawkeyes

[JonDMiller]

First games are typically tougher to peg than games played later in a season. There isn’t any data to point to other than returning starters and the older I get the less value I place in that statistics, thanks to statisticians like Dave Bartoo of CFMatrix.

For Iowa, using anything from last year as a barometer for this year is a bit depressing.

Here are some bits of good news for Iowa; younger players are now a year older. Offensive Coordinator Greg Davis is going to be a better Iowa coordinator this year, according to Kirk Ferentz. The Hawks are four or five deep at tight end and plan to use a lot of them out of different locations on the offense. The offensive line seems to be fairly deep, even if a bit unproven between the tackles…those tackles might be the best tandem in the Big Ten…the Iowa defense, which allowed less than 23 points per game last year, will be better this year especially up front…Iowa seems to have great depth at runni…..wait…I am not going there.

Let me circle back to that defensive stat…22.92 points per game allowed last year by the Iowa defense. That’s a winning number. That’s good enough to be a heck of a lot better than 4-8, but of course the offense was the worst in the Kirk Ferentz era and I still don’t blame James Vandenberg for that.

Since we don’t have any data from this season to hang our hat on, let me go back to last year one last time and make some ‘guarantees’ for you before tossing out a prediction for this year’s Iowa-NIU game. I guarantee Iowa will be better in the following statistical category rankings this year than their total (list) from last year:

-Iowa ranked 101st in the nation last year with 123 rushing yards per game
-Iowa ranked 114th in the nation in total offense last year
-Iowa ranked 111th in the nation in scoring offense, scoring just over 19 per game
-On top of a horrible offense, Iowa was 104th in net punting
-Iowa ranked 112th in passing efficiency
-Iowa ranked 113th in sacks
-Iowa ranked 105th in tackles for loss

I am not going to say by how much Iowa eclipses these marks, but they will rank better in every single one of them this year than they did last year, or your money will be returned to you.

One number I will not guarantee is 17; that’s the point total for NIU in last year’s season opener against Iowa. It was their lowest point total of the regular season by 13, as they never scored less than 30 the rest of 2012.

We don’t exactly know what to expect from this Iowa offense. We think they’ll be no-huddle all the time, but how much will they mix up tempo? Will they speed it up or will it be mostly check with me? Who cares about that, will the offense have a clue this year? Will the defense provide a pass rush this year? Will special teams turn into a weapon again this year and not something that is just mostly cringe-worthy?

We just don’t know..which makes these season openers all the more exciting.

Having written all of this, you know that the following is a pure guess, or as educated a guess as I could muster up (yeah, I went there). Iowa 24, Northern Illinois 20.

 

[cecilB]

First games are typically tougher to peg than games played later in a season. There isn’t any data to point to other than returning starters and the older I get the less value I place in that statistics, thanks to statisticians like Dave Bartoo of CFMatrix.

For Iowa, using anything from last year as a barometer for this year is a bit depressing.

Here are some bits of good news for Iowa; younger players are now a year older. Offensive Coordinator Greg Davis is going to be a better Iowa coordinator this year, according to Kirk Ferentz. The Hawks are four or five deep at tight end and plan to use a lot of them out of different locations on the offense. The offensive line seems to be fairly deep, even if a bit unproven between the tackles…those tackles might be the best tandem in the Big Ten…the Iowa defense, which allowed less than 23 points per game last year, will be better this year especially up front…Iowa seems to have great depth at runni…..wait…I am not going there.

Let me circle back to that defensive stat…22.92 points per game allowed last year by the Iowa defense. That’s a winning number. That’s good enough to be a heck of a lot better than 4-8, but of course the offense was the worst in the Kirk Ferentz era and I still don’t blame James Vandenberg for that.

Since we don’t have any data from this season to hang our hat on, let me go back to last year one last time and make some ‘guarantees’ for you before tossing out a prediction for this year’s Iowa-NIU game. I guarantee Iowa will be better in the following statistical category rankings this year than their total (list) from last year:

-Iowa ranked 101st in the nation last year with 123 rushing yards per game
-Iowa ranked 114th in the nation in total offense last year
-Iowa ranked 11th in the nation in scoring offense, scoring just over 19 per game
-On top of a horrible offense, Iowa was 104th in net punting
-Iowa ranked 112th in passing efficiency
-Iowa ranked 113th in sacks
-Iowa ranked 105th in tackles for loss

I am not going to say by how much Iowa eclipses these marks, but they will rank better in every single one of them this year than they did last year, or your money will be returned to you.

One number I will not guarantee is 17; that’s the point total for NIU in last year’s season opener against Iowa. It was their lowest point total of the regular season by 13, as they never scored less than 30 the rest of 2012.

We don’t exactly know what to expect from this Iowa offense. We think they’ll be no-huddle all the time, but how much will they mix up tempo? Will they speed it up or will it be mostly check with me? Who cares about that, will the offense have a clue this year? Will the defense provide a pass rush this year? Will special teams turn into a weapon again this year and not something t just mostly cringe-worthy?

We just don’t know..which makes these season openers all the more exciting.

Having written all of this, you know that the following is a pure guess, or as educated a guess as I could muster up (yeah, I went there). Iowa 24, Northern Illinois 20.

Iowa musters up 5 scores, NIll 3. So is it 35 to 9, or 15 to 21?

I say 27 - 13 good guys...huskies again struggle against a big boy defense.

 

[You]

Dave Bartoo is an annoying, self-promoting blowhard. But I like listening to his ideas.

 

[hawkinn3]

You say we'll be better in every one of those categories yet you don't blame Vandy for the issues on offense. So, seemingly him being gone will not affect anything and we have the same HC and OC.
What exactly changed that will make the offense better?

Everyone keeps insisting we will be better but can't supply solid reasoning for this, we could be better as some new starters are coming in but we could be worse.

I also dont buy that Greg Davis in year two will be better because his system will be firmly in place and the kids will get it now. GD has shown his system tends to only work with elite talent, we don't have anywhere near the talent of his good Texas teams. His system seem to be avoiding first downs.

 

[FreedComanche]

You say we'll be better in every one of those categories yet you don't blame Vandy for the issues on offense. So, seemingly him being gone will not affect anything and we have the same HC and OC.
What exactly changed that will make the offense better?

Everyone keeps insisting we will be better but can't supply solid reasoning for this, we could be better as some new starters are coming in but we could be worse.

I also dont buy that Greg Davis in year two will be better because his system will be firmly in place and the kids will get it now. GD has shown his system tends to only work with elite talent, we don't have anywhere near the talent of his good Texas teams. His system seem to be avoiding first downs.

A does of reality.

 

[WinOneThisCentury]

You say we'll be better in every one of those categories yet you don't blame Vandy for the issues on offense. So, seemingly him being gone will not affect anything and we have the same HC and OC.
What exactly changed that will make the offense better?

Everyone keeps insisting we will be better but can't supply solid reasoning for this, we could be better as some new starters are coming in but we could be worse.


I also dont buy that Greg Davis in year two will be better because his system will be firmly in place and the kids will get it now. GD has shown his system tends to only work with elite talent, we don't have anywhere near the talent of his good Texas teams. His system seem to be avoiding first downs.

Well, the facts are:
Last Year we were 4-2, prior to the slew of injuries. All injured players are healthy and a year older/stronger = Better
We were the youngest team in the KF era prior to the injuries and return the nucleus of the team = Better
We have a much more experienced OL (legitimate size also), which is key to any offensive scheme. We can run the ball...play action will mean something = Better
It appears from the comments that we have more playmakers (Smith, Powell, Shumpert, Cotton, Canzeri, Bullock, Daniels, Weisman). Only two or three of those guys were available last year and not the entire season = Better.
We are deeper on the DL and guys got their feet wet last year = Better
Our LB's are all seniors and provide leadership = Better
No huddle to keep defenses from substituting to attack us situationally = Better
A full year of having to live with 4-8, guys are motivated as much as I can ever remember = Better

 

[1977Hawkeye]

Well, the facts are:
Last Year we were 4-2, prior to the slew of injuries. All injured players are healthy and a year older/stronger = Better
We were the youngest team in the KF era prior to the injuries and return the nucleus of the team = Better
We have a much more experienced OL (legitimate size also), which is key to any offensive scheme. We can run the ball...play action will mean something = Better
It appears from the comments that we have more playmakers (Smith, Powell, Shumpert, Cotton, Canzeri, Bullock, Daniels, Weisman). Only two or three of those guys were available last year and not the entire season = Better.
We are deeper on the DL and guys got their feet wet last year = Better
Our LB's are all seniors and provide leadership = Better
No huddle to keep defenses from substituting to attack us situationally = Better
A full year of having to live with 4-8, guys are motivated as much as I can ever remember = Better

Thanks for the info - this is the type of substance I like reading about. I hope it translates into at least a few more W's this year.

 

[bitmap]

... Having written all of this, you know that the following is a pure guess, or as educated a guess as I could muster up (yeah, I went there). Iowa 24, Northern Illinois 20.

I think you are low on total points. I am expecting a higher point total by both teams.

From what we have seen through the rest of last season and the three open practices is the Hawkeye defense is going to be improved but nothing like twice as effective as last year. The NIU offense is going to look more like the team that won 12 games last year and not the team we played at Soldier. How much their AnIHRBG problems figures in is hard to calculate but I still think they will eclipse 30 points. You can count on them looking at the PSU and UM footage and, barring some big scheme changes on Hawkeye defense, use that to exploit the seams of the Iowa zone defense.

Lynch was the balance in their offense last year scoring equally on the ground and through the air. He may bust a long one like last year but he will spend most of his time running E-W, not N-S, as the Hawks try to contain him. Unfortunately he is equally adept w/ his arm and has proven WRs.

The NIU defense, on the other hand, is a shell of it's 2012 incarnation. The Hawkeyes should be able to run effectively against their inexperienced line. TE run blocking down field will make for some long runs and eventually lead to some open TEs. I expect that TOP will be the key to a Hawkeye victory Saturday. A five to seven minute drive in each quarter will keep the Hawks in the game if they can convert in the redzone. We have Weisman.

Has their offense improved much more than our defense and has our offense improved much more than their defense? The only likely negative in the equation is the NIU defensive line. The big unknown is the Hawkeye defense. It's a bigger number this year but is it big enough?. Are special teams and home field advantage enough to favor the Hawks?

Turnover margin must favor the Hawks for a win. Good, clean execution on offense and a predatory defense keeps the ball out of Lynch's hands and points off of the board for NIU.

Four touchdowns and a couple field goals and Iowa wins it 34-31.

 

[kicker22]

You say we'll be better in every one of those categories yet you don't blame Vandy for the issues on offense. So, seemingly him being gone will not affect anything and we have the same HC and OC.
What exactly changed that will make the offense better?

Everyone keeps insisting we will be better but can't supply solid reasoning for this, we could be better as some new starters are coming in but we could be worse.

I also dont buy that Greg Davis in year two will be better because his system will be firmly in place and the kids will get it now. GD has shown his system tends to only work with elite talent, we don't have anywhere near the talent of his good Texas teams. His system seem to be avoiding first downs.

The fact that they've had an entire year under GD, regardless of what you think of the GD offense, is solid proof they'll be better. I'm not saying I'm 100% on board with GD or that this will be a solid offense. I'm simply saying that whether we like the style or not, at least when the team gets to the line this season they'll all be on the same page, or relatively close. The solid proof is the fact that at times last year they looked totally lost offensively and have time to gel and get in sync with eachother. While that doesn't necessarily mean they'll improove by leaps and bounds there's no way of saying that it shouldn't show.

Let's be honest. We're not talking about making the jump from an average offense to a good or great offense. IF we were talking about becoming a good/great offense overnight that would be a stretch, but the fact is based on the offensive production last season even the slightest improvement is going to show.

 

[IncredibleHerk]

For the first time in a while, our O-Line averages 300 lbs - when Donnal is in it jumps to 303. You saw last night in the UNC/SC game the difference a few pounds can make up front. From what we saw at Kids Day, a solid line and some good reads could take us a long way (or at least a alot farther than last year) (which isn't really saying much considering a win will be our first since Oct. 13).

Back to the averages. Last night the commentators put up a graphic comparing UNC's defensive line with SC's offensive line, and while I can't recall the exact figure, it was in the ball park of 30 pounds. Anyone care to guess the average weight of NIU's defensive line? 260 pounds. 2 of their linebackers outweigh their starting DE who is a whopping 222 lbs (the other is 236 lbs.). Oh, and the other LB? he's 6' 206lb. It's true, we can't really look at a whole lot of statistics for the first game - so maybe resorting to player weight averages is a pathetic way to to bide my time until kick off. But I need some optimism at this point, and I'm praying when Scherff or Van Sloten have to set the edge on a guy that they outweigh by between 78 and 93 lbs, the running game has a leg to stand on.

 

[ThunderHawk]

I do blame Vandenbearkiller, at least to the extent that he should have realized he was in over his head. How do you not blame a guy who fails to learn how to exploit the blitz? How do you not blame a QB who locks onto receivers like a pit bull locks on to an unwitting pedestrian? The Bear Slayer knew where he was going to throw the ball before the huddle broke, and he was throwing it that way come hell or high water. Or taking the sack. Whichever came first. It was like Northwestern v. Iowa circa 2009 on a loop.

Let's just admit the obvious: Our QB was atrocious last season. He made Jake Snake-Burner Christensen look like John Elway. You can plug any one of our pure rookie QBs in there and it's an instant upgrade. I know I haven't seen any of them play, but I don't need to see any of them play to have @ 98% certainty in that regard.

Look, we get it. You liked Vandensacked as a person. That's fine. But the stats don't lie, and he was the one creating said stats. Sure, his receivers weren't all that, but there were a lot of open receivers that The Slayer never even glanced at. Blaming Greg Davis for that is like blaming the basket for a guy missing free throws. Accountability matters. Let's assign responsibility where it belongs and not ignore the bear err elephant in the room.

Too bad you weren't as adept at hitting wide open receivers.

 

[David79]

It is annoying when people say Iowa won last year but it was NIUs first game and a lot of the lineman were new and it was Lynchs first start. Ok well it was Iowas first game with a new offense and the passing offense which was crap, new offensive lineman starters, new running back, many new starters on defense including on the dline. So the teams were in the same boat.
If Iowa had still had KOK as the OC the game wouldn't have been that close bc they probably would have got a couple more TDs.

They are overrated. They barely beat KU at home. Army ran for almost 500 yards against them and they only beat army by one point. Iowa will be able to run the ball at will on them. Have you seen the size of their DEs and lbs. Weisman is bigger than all of them.

 

[TChawk]

I do blame Vandenbearkiller, at least to the extent that he should have realized he was in over his head. How do you not blame a guy who fails to learn how to exploit the blitz? How do you not blame a QB who locks onto receivers like a pit bull locks on to an unwitting pedestrian? The Bear Slayer knew where he was going to throw the ball before the huddle broke, and he was throwing it that way come hell or high water. Or taking the sack. Whichever came first. It was like Northwestern v. Iowa circa 2009 on a loop.

Let's just admit the obvious: Our QB was atrocious last season. He made Jake Snake-Burner Christensen look like John Elway. You can plug any one of our pure rookie QBs in there and it's an instant upgrade. I know I haven't seen any of them play, but I don't need to see any of them play to have @ 98% certainty in that regard.

Look, we get it. You liked Vandensacked as a person. That's fine. But the stats don't lie, and he was the one creating said stats. Sure, his receivers weren't all that, but there were a lot of open receivers that The Slayer never even glanced at. Blaming Greg Davis for that is like blaming the basket for a guy missing free throws. Accountability matters. Let's assign responsibility where it belongs and not ignore the bear err elephant in the room.

Too bad you weren't as adept at hitting wide open receivers.

We all get it you hate Vandenberg but to blame him for WR not running right routes..an oline that didn't know how to block most of the time and one CLUELESS OC...well just goes to show how little you watched or how little you know about football, but go on and keep on hating.

 

[David79]

Vandenberg did struggle last year and some of that was on him but not all of it. There were areas he struggled at his previous years that he never improved at and last year he was all over the place with some of his throws. The bad implementation of the offense and the WRs not being on the same page made things worse but he had plenty of problems himself.

 

[Sirhouseman]

I also saw JVB make a lot of RIGHT decisions and the WRs dropping A LOT of them.

 

[BigD]

Iowa 36 NIU 27

 

[JonDMiller]

Dave Bartoo is an annoying, self-promoting blowhard. But I like listening to his ideas.

He's an independent trying to make a name for himself with a different take on data as it applies to predicting success that no one else has done...most entrepreneurs have to be self promoters at some point in time. I can speak to this authoritatively

 

[HawkeyeDenis]

Iowa should dominate NIU but we've heard that before.

 

[JonDMiller]

You say we'll be better in every one of those categories yet you don't blame Vandy for the issues on offense. So, seemingly him being gone will not affect anything and we have the same HC and OC.

I felt that all last year that it was the changes and the receivers being clueless due to the changes that basically caused so much trouble....and Kirk has said several things this summer that support that...this, from my write up on Kirk from Chicago:

SUPPORT FOR VANDENBERG: Rare is the time where Kirk Ferentz will get within a mile of the proverbial bus, much less throw anyone underneath it. While he didn’t do that in Chicago, he certainly went out of his way at one point in time to stand up for James Vandenberg and his play from last year. No one had asked him about Vandenberg. Ferentz had been asked a question about Greg Davis and if things would be better for him and the offense in year two. Then he was asked about the quarterback battle this year and what his expectations were. He said:

“I don’t have any expectations other than hoping all three will look improved and I think they will. You can’t predict it, but looking back on things, after going through a spring where they were really running the offense and looking at film all summer and then 7 on 7’s, I would assume they are all farther down the road. It will be a matter of what they do in camp but that will be based on how the rest of the team supports them. Whomever is playing quarterback this year has a good chance to be better supported than James Vandenberg was last year…. James ended up being a victim of circumstance more than anything, I think. James is a great football player and a great young man.â€

Again, Kirk didn’t throw anyone under the bus but he certainly insinuates that Vandenberg didn’t get a fair sendoff and the people around him were not playing on his level. I think we can point the finger at the wide receiver position first and foremost. Then the midseason injuries on the offensive line were devastating to the offense, not to mention the new system and they hybrid offense I think Iowa was running; the best of Greg and Best of Kirk mashed up together to create something less appealing than a Best of Air Supply download. It’s rare for Kirk to drift into this territory.

 

[LASBUR]

Jon, didnt you think that before KF said it in Chicago ?