Predicting the Big Ten Tournament Seeding (3/6/2013)
- Thread starter storminspank
- Start date
WindsorHawk
Well-Known Member
Finally, someone else that thinks NW will be the 10 seed. How did you get Michigan at 3? Is that with a win over Indiana...just curious if IN still gets the 1 with a loss to Michigan.
Last edited:
storminspank
Justin VanLaere
It's in the article I wrote:
PREDICTED CONFERENCE RECORDS:
- Indiana 13-5 (loss @UM)
- Michigan 13-5 (win @PU, win vs IU)
- Ohio State 13-5 (win vs Ill)
- Michigan State 13-5 (win vs Wisc, win vs NW)
- Wisconsin 12-6 (loss @MSU, win @PSU)
- Minnesota 9-9 (win @Neb, loss @PU)
- Iowa 9-9 (win vs Neb)
- Illinois 8-10 (loss @OSU)
- Purdue 8-10 (loss vs UM, win vs MN)
- Northwestern 5-13 (win vs PSU, loss @MSU)
- Nebraska 4-14 (loss vs MN, loss @Iowa)
- Penn State 1-17 (loss @NW, loss vs Wisc)
WindsorHawk
Well-Known Member
I will read the article later but have to go right now. Thanks for taking care of my lazy a$$.
Here's what the rest of the articles says.
PREDICTED CONFERENCE RECORDS:
- Indiana 13-5 (loss @UM)
- Michigan 13-5 (win @PU, win vs IU)
- Ohio State 13-5 (win vs Ill)
- Michigan State 13-5 (win vs Wisc, win vs NW)
- Wisconsin 12-6 (loss @MSU, win @PSU)
- Minnesota 9-9 (win @Neb, loss @PU)
- Iowa 9-9 (win vs Neb)
- Illinois 8-10 (loss @OSU)
- Purdue 8-10 (loss vs UM, win vs MN)
- Northwestern 5-13 (win vs PSU, loss @MSU)
- Nebraska 4-14 (loss vs MN, loss @Iowa)
- Penn State 1-17 (loss @NW, loss vs Wisc)
There would be a four-way tie at the top of the conference, so we’ll need to refer that nice little document on the B1G’s website….
Indiana would be 4-2 vs the other teams, so they’d get the 1 seed. MSU would be the 4 seed thanks to a 2-4 record vs the other teams. Both OSU and Michigan would be 3-3 vs the others, so we’d need to go to the next tiebreaking stage -
“2. If the remaining teams are still tied, then each tied team’s record shall be compared to the team occupying the highest position in the final regular-season standings, continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.â€
Both were 1-1 vs Indiana, both were 1-1 vs Michigan State, but they had differences vs Wisconsin (the 5th place team). Ohio State is 1-1 vs. Wisconsin, while Michigan is 0-1 vs Wisconsin. This puts OSU on the 2 line and UM on the 3 line.
Wisconsin is alone at 12-6, securing the 5 seed.
Minnesota and Iowa would be tied at 9-9. Iowa is 0-2 vs Indiana, Minnesota is 1-1. Gophers get the 6 spot, Iowa gets the 7 spot.
Illinois and Purdue would be 8-10. Illinois is 1-0 vs Indiana, Purdue is 0-2 vs Indiana. Illinois is on the 8 line, Purdue is on the 9 line.
The rest of the teams fall in place based on conference records.
Here’s a look at how this would seed for the tournament… this would would set up fairly nice for Iowa.
storminspank
Justin VanLaere
The way I look at it, Iowa matches up well with NW. Then they have a chance to beat a Top 25 team in OSU.
I'd rather they play OSU than Indiana or Michigan.
If Iowa gets to 22-11 w/ 4 top 50 wins, that is probably bubble good.
storminspank
Justin VanLaere
Yep, it's so dynamic right now. Almost every game has an impact.
Good news is if Iowa beats Neb on Sat they worst they can be seeded is 7th.
STILLBUSTER
Well-Known Member
So, for the third time, set aside any contempt for Bucky and cheer like crazy they beat MSU!! Also, at this point, you cheer for Indy to beat Michigan and get the outright #1. That puts Wisky in the #2 (1-0 vs Indy, while OSU is 1-1).
That is best-case for Iowa (as long as they beat Nebby and the #10, 1st round) to have a chance in 2nd round of the BTT. A win over Wisky on nuetral floor, + 22 W's, + going 7-3 over their last 10 moves them from a long-shot to an absolute lock for the NCAA. Not to mention, then facing either Minny or Michigan in the semi's. Pull an upset there and I'd jump on them go win the whole damn thing. (Yea, it's a pipe dream.)
That is best-case for Iowa (as long as they beat Nebby and the #10, 1st round) to have a chance in 2nd round of the BTT. A win over Wisky on nuetral floor, + 22 W's, + going 7-3 over their last 10 moves them from a long-shot to an absolute lock for the NCAA. Not to mention, then facing either Minny or Michigan in the semi's. Pull an upset there and I'd jump on them go win the whole damn thing. (Yea, it's a pipe dream.)
hawkeyeguy85
Well-Known Member
Correct me if I'm wrong, but how does Neb over Minn, (or any other conference game for that matter) change Iowa's RPI?
I don't believe it does, as it still adds one win and one loss to Iowa's OPP WIN% in the RPI formula no matter who wins.
Since Iowa played both Minnesota and Nebraska twice, the outcome shouldn't affect Iowa's RPI at all.
I suppose there could be some very small bump if Iowa's opponents played Nebraska more times than they played Minnesota, but it would have to be miniscule.
hawkeyeguy85
Well-Known Member
Never mind, I just had a duh moment.
You want Nebraska to climb into the top 100, so the loss doesn't look as bad, not talking about Iowa's rpi.
I'm an idiot, carry on.
You want Nebraska to climb into the top 100, so the loss doesn't look as bad, not talking about Iowa's rpi.
I'm an idiot, carry on.
NEIChawk
Well-Known Member
SpiderRico
Well-Known Member
This isn't necessarily a prediction....more like what I'd like to see happen:
Indiana beats Michigan. MSU beats Wisky and beats NW. Wisky loses to MSU and beats PSU. Mich beats Purdue and loses to Indiana. OSU loses to Illinois. Iowa beats Nebraska. Minnesota loses @ Neb and @ Purdue. If that happens, then the following are the seedings:
1. Indiana - 14-4
2. MSU - 13-5
3. Wisky - 12-6
4. Michigan - 12-6
5. OSU - 12-6
6. Iowa - 9-9
7. Illinois - 9-9
8. Purdue - 8-10
9. Minn - 8-10
10. Neb - 5-13
11. NW - 5-13
12. PSU - 1-17
Wisky gets the #3 by virtue of being 2-1 against OSU & Mich and then 1-0 against Indiana (Mich is also 2-1 against that group but would be 1-1 against Indiana). This would set up a 1st round match up against NW and then a 2nd round matchup against Wisky. In addition, we'd have the "prestige" of being at the top of the "2nd tier" of teams after the top 5 ranked teams. Would be awesome if everything fell this way....
Indiana beats Michigan. MSU beats Wisky and beats NW. Wisky loses to MSU and beats PSU. Mich beats Purdue and loses to Indiana. OSU loses to Illinois. Iowa beats Nebraska. Minnesota loses @ Neb and @ Purdue. If that happens, then the following are the seedings:
1. Indiana - 14-4
2. MSU - 13-5
3. Wisky - 12-6
4. Michigan - 12-6
5. OSU - 12-6
6. Iowa - 9-9
7. Illinois - 9-9
8. Purdue - 8-10
9. Minn - 8-10
10. Neb - 5-13
11. NW - 5-13
12. PSU - 1-17
Wisky gets the #3 by virtue of being 2-1 against OSU & Mich and then 1-0 against Indiana (Mich is also 2-1 against that group but would be 1-1 against Indiana). This would set up a 1st round match up against NW and then a 2nd round matchup against Wisky. In addition, we'd have the "prestige" of being at the top of the "2nd tier" of teams after the top 5 ranked teams. Would be awesome if everything fell this way....
H8IAST8
Well-Known Member
It makes Nebby a top 100 RPI team, making our loss not "bad", and making our win, decent.
bws258
Well-Known Member
Neb beats Minn ... so, Iowa gets the 6-seed
IU beats Mich ... so, Iowa plays OSU or MSU in rd.2
nationalchamps
Well-Known Member
Agreed. It's lights out if we face Michigan in the semi's, but I could see the goofers pulling the upset and potentially facing us in the semi's.
SpiderRico
Well-Known Member
Also, under the scenario above, we avoid the dreaded Indiana/Michigan duo as they would be the #1 and #4 seeds respectively and would be on the other side of the bracket. Our side of the bracket would have Illinois, Nebraska, NW, Wisconsin and Michigan State. I'd take my chances with that!
