Player Rotation - Fran Knows Best

hawk2012

Well-Known Member
It appears that majority of this board would prefer if Fran switched to a tighter player rotation. I don't get this. Where is the proof that the rotating ten or eleven players last year actually hurt this team? It's true that this team collapsed last season, but blaming it on rotating too many players seems odd to me. We were rotating ten players during the first half of the season when we were playing great basketball. In fact, the rotation actually tightened near the end of the season as Jok and Clemmons started to get less minutes. I just don't see any evidence that the player rotation had anything to do with our collapse.

On the other hand, there seem to be numerous benefits to rotating a large number of players. First, limiting minutes keeps everyone fresh so that they can play harder when they are in and hopefully avoid hitting a wall. Obviously, this team hit a wall last February but I'm not sure that more minutes for a smaller rotation of players during the first three months is the best solution to that problem. Second, it helps develop young talent for future teams. For example, Peter Jok is probably going to come into next season with much more confidence after having a great game in the NCAA tournament. Fran temporally cut him from the rotation after he struggled in games, but he recognized that he was doing well in practice, and brought him back into the rotation. That paid off well in the tourney game and those minutes were important to this year's team as Jok will be called upon to play a major role. If Fran had trimmed the rotation to 8 by mid-season, Jok never would have played again last year.

Third, the players likely work harder and go after it more in practice if they know they are going to be playing in games. It also helps avoid transfers. Clemmons came back, in part, because he knew that if he improved Fran would give him a chance to play meaningful minutes. Thus, the rotation minimizes transfers which was a big problem under the last two coaches.

It is fair to criticize Fran for playing a player too many minutes. For example, perhaps McCabe deserved less minutes last year. It is also fair to criticize him for playing certain players together or how he manages his rotations. However, it seems arbitrary to criticize him solely for stating that he intends to rotate 10 or 11 players. If Uhl looks lost during Big Ten season and Fran insists on continuing to play him for large stretches during every game, that would be a very legitimate criticism. But, as last season proved, that is a very unlikely outcome.

In sum, let's just see how this plays out. If we end up having 11 players that play fantastic basketball, then great. If not, I'm sure the rotation will be trimmed as Fran sees fit. Just because most teams don't play that many players doesn't mean we are doing it wrong.
 
Most teams have a big drop off in talent after 8 guys or so. We seem to have a log jam of 10 or 11 guys that are pretty equal in talent. It puts Fran in a tough position trying to trim down the rotation.

I for one hope we go 11 deep because that means our 3 newcomers are playing good.

Ha I said go 11 deep.
 
I think Ellingson is not likely to actually be in the regular rotation, so it is unlikely to exceed ten. I am ok with that, depending on how they play. Fran was not known for having a deep rotation when at Siena, where he maxed out at 8 guys, but I think he has found that he has a roster of similarly talented players....none great,but no bums either. I have no issue with it, if it works out well translating to wins. Until he recruits some blue-chippers, this is probably the best way to operate. ...wear'em down with numbers.
 
That was a great post, Hawk2012, very well thought out and written. It would tend to make some think Fran knows what he is doing. We did do very well the first half of the season with a large rotation. Occasionally I would question the players involved in the rotation, but it does tire the other team down with fresh players coming off the bench ready to go. I liked what you said about Peter Jok, I think this will be a breakout year for him. We actually have some very good players on the team, despite the fact that they weren't mostly 4/5 star recruits. Fran picks the players that have great promise and have been, for the most part overlooked....

Nice post, keep it up....

:rolleyes:
 
Most teams have a big drop off in talent after 8 guys or so. We seem to have a log jam of 10 or 11 guys that are pretty equal in talent. It puts Fran in a tough position trying to trim down the rotation.

I for one hope we go 11 deep because that means our 3 newcomers are playing good.

Ha I said go 11 deep.

Ah, Yes, PCHawk, well done....

:cool:
 
I think Ellingson is not likely to actually be in the regular rotation, so it is unlikely to exceed ten. I am ok with that, depending on how they play. Fran was not known for having a deep rotation when at Siena, where he maxed out at 8 guys, but I think he has found that he has a roster of similarly talented players....none great,but no bums either. I have no issue with it, if it works out well translating to wins. Until he recruits some blue-chippers, this is probably the best way to operate. ...wear'em down with numbers.

We really haven't seen Brady in action other than YouTube videos. He appears to be a sharpshooter, which would certainly help. If he is on and Josh and Peter are in the groove. We will be a tough out....

:cool:
 
I really don't get what you are saying. So the first half of the year was somehow a vindication of our player rotation? Certainly, we played well in the first half of the B10, but when it really gets hard to win games is when you have to play the same team again and beat them again. The good teams get increasingly better as the year goes on. We regressed and certainly didn't get better. Good teams win the big games down the stretch of the Big 10 (last 7 or so games) and teams destined to make a run in the tournament start to refine what they are doing on offense to get the shots they want for the right players...Iowa had one player truly step up and compete consistently down the stretch of games on offense.

I'm not saying the rotation was definitively the problem or the only problem last year...but the fact of the matter is that this team fell apart down the stretch both offensively and defensively. One could argue that the rotation didn't allow players to get enough minutes to improve in game situations and that was part of the lack of improvement.

I can remember several games where it seemed to me there was a lack of continuity in the substitution patterns and wanting Fran to get the best five or the five playing the best that day out there for longer periods. Maybe I was the only one that felt that way...but it was a consistent thought pattern throughout the entire season.

These are 20 year old kids so playing 28 to 30 minutes with all the timeouts and TV stuff shouldn't be overwhelming.
 
I actually think a deep rotation will work better this season than last. The talent is more balanced this season as Marble is now gone. There is no superstar............yet. :cool:
 
If 8 guys play equal minutes, they each play 25 minutes a game. If 10 guys play equal minutes, they all play 20 minutes a game.i don't think the difference is big enough to cause problems as long as you do it right.

More than likely though, the last 2 in the rotation would only get 10 minuets per game or so. That would only take a couple minutes each from the only 8 players.
 
Now do the math with 11. My only point is that I'm hoping their is a solid rotation where our best players get more minutes and continuity in playing together. I don't think a rotation of 11 players works...but I do hope Fran proves me wrong.
 
Ok, this has been bothering me so I thought I'd look at the more successful teams in the Big 10 last year and see how they distributed minutes among their top players.

Wisconsin - Top 5 Average Minutes Per Game
Kaminsky - 27.2
Brust - 34.4
Dekker - 29.8
Jackson - 30.7
Gasser - 33.4

Michigan
Staukis - 35.6
Robinson - 32.3
La Vert - 34.1
Walton - 26.7
Morgan - 20.2
If McGary doesn't get hurt he's in the high 20s for sure.

Michigan State
Harris - 32.3
Payne - 28.1
Dawson - 28.3
Appling - 31.5
Valentine - 29.4

Iowa
Marble - 30.2
White - 28.1
Basabe - 17.8
Gessell - 23.8
Woodbury - 16.9
Utoff - 18.2
Oglesby - 19.5
Olesani - 16.7
McCabe - 15.8

Now, I'm going to make an interpretation from the data. The top coaches in the league seem to think it's more important to play their top players significantly more minutes. The top three teams in the league had their best players average roughly 30 minutes. Could the reason be building cohesion, continuity, and familiarity between the core group that may pay dividends down the stretch of the season, particularly in crunch time? That's my opinion. We had one person average 30.

I think Fran needs to pair down the rotation at some point. I agree with Jon Miller...let them fight it out till December then get down to 8-9.
 
It appears that majority of this board would prefer if Fran switched to a tighter player rotation. I don't get this. Where is the proof that the rotating ten or eleven players last year actually hurt this team? It's true that this team collapsed last season, but blaming it on rotating too many players seems odd to me. We were rotating ten players during the first half of the season when we were playing great basketball. In fact, the rotation actually tightened near the end of the season as Jok and Clemmons started to get less minutes. I just don't see any evidence that the player rotation had anything to do with our collapse.

On the other hand, there seem to be numerous benefits to rotating a large number of players. First, limiting minutes keeps everyone fresh so that they can play harder when they are in and hopefully avoid hitting a wall. Obviously, this team hit a wall last February but I'm not sure that more minutes for a smaller rotation of players during the first three months is the best solution to that problem. Second, it helps develop young talent for future teams. For example, Peter Jok is probably going to come into next season with much more confidence after having a great game in the NCAA tournament. Fran temporally cut him from the rotation after he struggled in games, but he recognized that he was doing well in practice, and brought him back into the rotation. That paid off well in the tourney game and those minutes were important to this year's team as Jok will be called upon to play a major role. If Fran had trimmed the rotation to 8 by mid-season, Jok never would have played again last year.

Third, the players likely work harder and go after it more in practice if they know they are going to be playing in games. It also helps avoid transfers. Clemmons came back, in part, because he knew that if he improved Fran would give him a chance to play meaningful minutes. Thus, the rotation minimizes transfers which was a big problem under the last two coaches.

It is fair to criticize Fran for playing a player too many minutes. For example, perhaps McCabe deserved less minutes last year. It is also fair to criticize him for playing certain players together or how he manages his rotations. However, it seems arbitrary to criticize him solely for stating that he intends to rotate 10 or 11 players. If Uhl looks lost during Big Ten season and Fran insists on continuing to play him for large stretches during every game, that would be a very legitimate criticism. But, as last season proved, that is a very unlikely outcome.

In sum, let's just see how this plays out. If we end up having 11 players that play fantastic basketball, then great. If not, I'm sure the rotation will be trimmed as Fran sees fit. Just because most teams don't play that many players doesn't mean we are doing it wrong.

I'd be ok with a 10-11 man rotation if we were running and pressing constantly but if we're not some players are better and should get starters minutes.
 
Most teams have a big drop off in talent after 8 guys or so. We seem to have a log jam of 10 or 11 guys that are pretty equal in talent. It puts Fran in a tough position trying to trim down the rotation.

I for one hope we go 11 deep because that means our 3 newcomers are playing good.

Ha I said go 11 deep.

I got a laugh at the 11 deep.
 
Ok, this has been bothering me so I thought I'd look at the more successful teams in the Big 10 last year and see how they distributed minutes among their top players.

Wisconsin - Top 5 Average Minutes Per Game
Kaminsky - 27.2
Brust - 34.4
Dekker - 29.8
Jackson - 30.7
Gasser - 33.4

Michigan
Staukis - 35.6
Robinson - 32.3
La Vert - 34.1
Walton - 26.7
Morgan - 20.2
If McGary doesn't get hurt he's in the high 20s for sure.

Michigan State
Harris - 32.3
Payne - 28.1
Dawson - 28.3
Appling - 31.5
Valentine - 29.4

Iowa
Marble - 30.2
White - 28.1
Basabe - 17.8
Gessell - 23.8
Woodbury - 16.9
Utoff - 18.2
Oglesby - 19.5
Olesani - 16.7
McCabe - 15.8

Now, I'm going to make an interpretation from the data. The top coaches in the league seem to think it's more important to play their top players significantly more minutes. The top three teams in the league had their best players average roughly 30 minutes. Could the reason be building cohesion, continuity, and familiarity between the core group that may pay dividends down the stretch of the season, particularly in crunch time? That's my opinion. We had one person average 30.

I think Fran needs to pair down the rotation at some point. I agree with Jon Miller...let them fight it out till December then get down to 8-9.

Well you didn't list the 6th, 7th, and 8th player on the others benches:
MSU: Trice 22 min, Costello 14.7, Kaminiski 12.2
Michigan: Irving 15.4, Horford 13.8, Albrecht 14.7
Wisconsin: Hayes 17.4, Koenig 15.4, Marshall 12.5

None of those 3 teams played a 9th guy 10+ min a game, and there is a reason......you don't need to to keep your team fresh. On the flip side, besides Uthoff, was there a case to be made that any of the rest of the Hawks deserved a ton more minutes? I would say no, but I think if Fran could do it again he would have played Uthoff 25 min a game, and dropped McCabe to 10 or so. McCabe was just so limited and took waaaaay too many shots. McCabe took 172 shots hitting 39%, while Uthoff shot 168 times at 50%. Taking those shots Uthoff got to the line 82 times to McCabe's 52. The eyeball test and the tale of the stats just screamed to sit McCabe and play Uthoff, and I'm curious why that never happened.

I think this year there is gonna be enough improvement in the returners to warrant many more MPG. Gesell, Uthoff, Gabe, and Woody especially. I would love to see the following breakdown in MPG:

Main guys:
Gesell 30
Uthoff 30
White 32
Gabe 25
Woody 25

Important contributors:
Clemons 15
Dickerson 20
Jok/Ogelsby splitting up 30 MPG


Deep bench:
Uhl 8
Ellingson 5

Gesell, White, and Uthoff need 30 MPG as they are above the rest. Gabe and Woody will be doing lots of dirty work underneath and if they can handle more that 25 MPG great, but I think they will be most effective playing those min. If, and it is a big if, Uhl is better than 8 MPG, fine, but I kind of doubt it. I don't see how he is gonna be a better option than Uthoff, White, Gabe or Woody in the front court, so no need getting him 15 MPG since he is gonna be a drop off. A 9 player rotation is very manageable.
 
Let's say other teams starters played an average of 8 minutes more per game for 30 games...that's 240 minutes of playing time over the course of the season. Or its like playing 8 more full games than our guys did at their 30 minutes a game. I'm no rocket scientist, but I think that may be helpful.

Last year Woodbury, Utoff, and Olesani deserved more minutes. These are guys you are developing for the future...invest in them...get them on the floor so by the end of the year the a hardened, tough, and in game shape.
 
Woody and Gabe took themselves out of games more than fran.

I get what you are saying, but sometimes leaving them in to correct the mistakes on the floor is helpful and builds confidence. I'll be honest, I don't like Fran's quick hook coaching style. At Woodbury's and Olesani's development stage playing through some of their mistakes can be the best remedy. Those guys should have had no fouls left at the end of a game last year. Woodbury played 16 minutes a game...and he was our best defensive center and really our only low post scorer, which is scary enough as it is.

Part of our trouble last year is that we didn't have a post scorer. Someone we could go down low to and get points or dish if they draw the double. When we went cold down the stretch and teams stopped our transition game, which they did, where did we get points. Marble creating...and that was all. We didn't have another way to consistently score and had no down low post player, and that's why we imploded losing 7 of 8 and losing to NORTHWESTERN in the B10 tournament. The same could happen this year...that's why Woodbury's offensive development is so important...it's critical. It opens up the shooters.

Maybe investing in Woodbury's development last year would have been a good thing for this year...rather than giving McCabe the minutes he got. Zach just didn't earn it with production and he wasn't a great defensive player. I'm sorry to pick on him...but that was no Gatens or May type of senior year. Even a senior has to earn that playing time. Fran shouldn't be giving certificates and ribbons for participation at this juncture. And that's what I think he did with Zach last year.
 
It appears that majority of this board would prefer if Fran switched to a tighter player rotation. I don't get this. Where is the proof that the rotating ten or eleven players last year actually hurt this team? It's true that this team collapsed last season, but blaming it on rotating too many players seems odd to me. We were rotating ten players during the first half of the season when we were playing great basketball. In fact, the rotation actually tightened near the end of the season as Jok and Clemmons started to get less minutes. I just don't see any evidence that the player rotation had anything to do with our collapse.

On the other hand, there seem to be numerous benefits to rotating a large number of players. First, limiting minutes keeps everyone fresh so that they can play harder when they are in and hopefully avoid hitting a wall. Obviously, this team hit a wall last February but I'm not sure that more minutes for a smaller rotation of players during the first three months is the best solution to that problem. Second, it helps develop young talent for future teams. For example, Peter Jok is probably going to come into next season with much more confidence after having a great game in the NCAA tournament. Fran temporally cut him from the rotation after he struggled in games, but he recognized that he was doing well in practice, and brought him back into the rotation. That paid off well in the tourney game and those minutes were important to this year's team as Jok will be called upon to play a major role. If Fran had trimmed the rotation to 8 by mid-season, Jok never would have played again last year.

Third, the players likely work harder and go after it more in practice if they know they are going to be playing in games. It also helps avoid transfers. Clemmons came back, in part, because he knew that if he improved Fran would give him a chance to play meaningful minutes. Thus, the rotation minimizes transfers which was a big problem under the last two coaches.

It is fair to criticize Fran for playing a player too many minutes. For example, perhaps McCabe deserved less minutes last year. It is also fair to criticize him for playing certain players together or how he manages his rotations. However, it seems arbitrary to criticize him solely for stating that he intends to rotate 10 or 11 players. If Uhl looks lost during Big Ten season and Fran insists on continuing to play him for large stretches during every game, that would be a very legitimate criticism. But, as last season proved, that is a very unlikely outcome.

In sum, let's just see how this plays out. If we end up having 11 players that play fantastic basketball, then great. If not, I'm sure the rotation will be trimmed as Fran sees fit. Just because most teams don't play that many players doesn't mean we are doing it wrong.

I agree with your points especially competition for time but there are reasons to play a smaller rotation too.

1. For many the longer you sit the longer it takes to warm back up. Basketball is a game of rhythm and timing. Lots of players are going to be thrown off playing sporadicly.

2. When you are worried about being pulled for making a mistake you tend to play up tight and think to much. This was a problem IMO last year.

3. You want your better players on the floor as much as possible.

At some point there is a diminishing return per number of players used. Most coaches seem to think its around 8.
 
I agree with your points especially competition for time but there are reasons to play a smaller rotation too.

1. For many the longer you sit the longer it takes to warm back up. Basketball is a game of rhythm and timing. Lots of players are going to be thrown off playing sporadicly.

2. When you are worried about being pulled for making a mistake you tend to play up tight and think to much. This was a problem IMO last year.

3. You want your better players on the floor as much as possible.

At some point there is a diminishing return per number of players used. Most coaches seem to think its around 8.



RnRF I just see the logic of having 10 or 11 guys playing. Now, that can and should be situational. You don't rotate all 11 every game for the sake of rotating all 11. But you do want to keep all 11 engaged since, a I believe, they are all B1G caliber players, within their roles. Keep in mind that we can't just look at it as playing 11 players just to do it. Some if it is born out of necessity. For example, Jok didn't play much in the B1G last season because it didn't make sense to take minutes away from RDM. But Fran had to rotate ZM in with Basabe just to provide depth. Fran HAD to keep ZM in the rotation. This season, Dom Uhl will play because we need a back up for both White and JU. We have 3 B1G caliber pg's that can also play some 2. Why not play all 3? So, necessity and situations, in my mind, dictate playing every player available that is B1G caliber talent and is ready to play.
 
RnRF I just see the logic of having 10 or 11 guys playing. Now, that can and should be situational. You don't rotate all 11 every game for the sake of rotating all 11. But you do want to keep all 11 engaged since, a I believe, they are all B1G caliber players, within their roles. Keep in mind that we can't just look at it as playing 11 players just to do it. Some if it is born out of necessity. For example, Jok didn't play much in the B1G last season because it didn't make sense to take minutes away from RDM. But Fran had to rotate ZM in with Basabe just to provide depth. Fran HAD to keep ZM in the rotation. This season, Dom Uhl will play because we need a back up for both White and JU. We have 3 B1G caliber pg's that can also play some 2. Why not play all 3? So, necessity and situations, in my mind, dictate playing every player available that is B1G caliber talent and is ready to play.

I don't think the question is about playing 11...there are situational things that can happen in games where you may play eleven guys. The real question is how many minutes your top five and top eight get night in and night out. I looked at Kentucky, a talent laden young team if there ever was one, and they had 4 guys average over 30 minutes a game last year. So Kentucky and their talent level from 1-12, makes sure it's top players get at least 30 mpg. Then think about Iowa, and their talent level from 1-12, spreading spreading minutes out so 3-11 average about 16-17 per game. The only way this works is if you think you don't have the talent and keeping guys fresher is a major strategy.

It's a philosophical discussion about what Fran is doing vs. what other major programs are doing. It's clear in looking at the minutes played data from last year for the top programs that almost all play their top five in the average of 28-30 minutes per game...and the rotation appears to go to 8 for the remainder of the minutes.

Please note: this is not an indictment of Fran's strategy or whatever. I'm sure there are other reasons like building a program that factor into playing time. Guys know they are going to play. It's just a very interesting discussion point. Our rotation last year was very different from other top programs and that's interesting. Was it successful? Again, it's only one aspect of the game...others like shooting, rebounding , and defending are also important. :)
 
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