JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
The NCAA came down harshly on Penn State's football program Monday, taking unprecedented steps in punishing a member institution for the willing conceit and cover up related to a serial child rapist in their midst. Here are the key aspects of the NCAA's penalties:
-$60 million dollar fine
-Four year post season ban, including bowls and Big Ten title game appearances
-loss of 10 scholarships per year for the next four years
-Players can immediately transfer without having to sit out a year and 'receiving' schools can go over the 85 scholarship limit this year to bring them into their programs. After this year, those programs who brought in Penn State players would need to fit them in under their 85 scholarship maximum.
The Big Ten will also not give Penn State it's bowl revenue share for four years, instead donating the revenues to charitable organizations. This will be around $13 million dollars.
Some were saying yesterday that the 'Death Penalty' would be easier to overcome than what was heading Penn State's way. At the least, you can make that argument.
Southern Methodist (SMU) received a one-year 'death penalty' from the NCAA in the mid 1980's for paying players. SMU then chose to tack on an additional year where the school did not field a football team. The Southwestern Conference also disbanded at that time and SMU really didn't have anywhere to go. The school also de-emphasized it's football program and its importance. They dramatically increased enrollment requirements for athletes and began recruiting an entirely different breed of player due to this.
In short, SMU made their one-year penalty exponentially more difficult to overcome due to philosophical decisions they made for their university. They would have 'gotten back' to being a better program much sooner had they not taken some of those self imposed routes or made such decisions.
Penn State will lose some players for this year's team. How many? I would guess less than 15 of their 85 scholarship players. So say that leaves them with 70. My guess is the vast majority of those players will be underclassmen.
Penn State will only be able to add 15 scholarship players per year over the next four years. Say 1o underclassmen choose to leave over the next few weeks, that leaves them with 75 scholarship players. Say they have the full 25 rides available for next year's recruiting class but they can only use 15 rides. That means the 2013 Penn State team will have just 65 out of 85 scholarship players. That's just two more scholarships than what FCS programs are allowed (63). Northern Iowa is an FCS program, for the sake of comparison. PSU will play with just 65 scholarship players for the seasons of 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017.
These numbers are not scientific but I believe they will be in the ballpark of what Penn State will be facing, which is an enormous hole to climb out of. If they received the Death Penalty for one year, they would have been able to award 25 rides a year per normal after just one year. So again, I think you can make the case that the Death Penalty for one year might have been 'better' for the program.
However, the punishments the NCAA handed down will not harm local businesses and 2012 players the way the Death Penalty would have.
Some will say that USC has done just fine in the face of a two-year bowl ban and same 10-scholarship reduction over three years. Penn State is not USC.
This is the same Penn State program who won 5, 5, 3 and 4 games in four of the five seasons between 2000-2004. USC has had two losing seasons since 1993, not counting the years where they had to vacate wins in the early 2000's.
Penn State is not in a situation anywhere near that of USC. While there is a lot of talent in Pennsylvania, there is far more in Southern California. It's not even a debate.
What's also not debatable is the stigma that will forever be attached to the Penn State football program as one that harbored a child rapist and hid his crimes for more than a decade, allowing him to continue to use his status and access to the Penn State program to groom future victims, which he did.
USC also had a two-year bowl ban compared to Penn State's four. Penn State's recruiting efforts for the next three years may look MAC-ish at best, or very low level Big Ten.
Who knows how quickly they will be able to bounce back and compete on the national stage again. They have an amazing revenue machine with their 100,000+ seat stadium and generations of fans who live and breath Nittany Lion football. I don't believe they are going to crater to the SMU level unless their administration chooses to de-emphasize football the way SMU did.
The reality is clear; the Penn State football program we have all come to know is dead. It may never come back or at the least, may take seven years or more.
-$60 million dollar fine
-Four year post season ban, including bowls and Big Ten title game appearances
-loss of 10 scholarships per year for the next four years
-Players can immediately transfer without having to sit out a year and 'receiving' schools can go over the 85 scholarship limit this year to bring them into their programs. After this year, those programs who brought in Penn State players would need to fit them in under their 85 scholarship maximum.
The Big Ten will also not give Penn State it's bowl revenue share for four years, instead donating the revenues to charitable organizations. This will be around $13 million dollars.
Some were saying yesterday that the 'Death Penalty' would be easier to overcome than what was heading Penn State's way. At the least, you can make that argument.
Southern Methodist (SMU) received a one-year 'death penalty' from the NCAA in the mid 1980's for paying players. SMU then chose to tack on an additional year where the school did not field a football team. The Southwestern Conference also disbanded at that time and SMU really didn't have anywhere to go. The school also de-emphasized it's football program and its importance. They dramatically increased enrollment requirements for athletes and began recruiting an entirely different breed of player due to this.
In short, SMU made their one-year penalty exponentially more difficult to overcome due to philosophical decisions they made for their university. They would have 'gotten back' to being a better program much sooner had they not taken some of those self imposed routes or made such decisions.
Penn State will lose some players for this year's team. How many? I would guess less than 15 of their 85 scholarship players. So say that leaves them with 70. My guess is the vast majority of those players will be underclassmen.
Penn State will only be able to add 15 scholarship players per year over the next four years. Say 1o underclassmen choose to leave over the next few weeks, that leaves them with 75 scholarship players. Say they have the full 25 rides available for next year's recruiting class but they can only use 15 rides. That means the 2013 Penn State team will have just 65 out of 85 scholarship players. That's just two more scholarships than what FCS programs are allowed (63). Northern Iowa is an FCS program, for the sake of comparison. PSU will play with just 65 scholarship players for the seasons of 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017.
These numbers are not scientific but I believe they will be in the ballpark of what Penn State will be facing, which is an enormous hole to climb out of. If they received the Death Penalty for one year, they would have been able to award 25 rides a year per normal after just one year. So again, I think you can make the case that the Death Penalty for one year might have been 'better' for the program.
However, the punishments the NCAA handed down will not harm local businesses and 2012 players the way the Death Penalty would have.
Some will say that USC has done just fine in the face of a two-year bowl ban and same 10-scholarship reduction over three years. Penn State is not USC.
This is the same Penn State program who won 5, 5, 3 and 4 games in four of the five seasons between 2000-2004. USC has had two losing seasons since 1993, not counting the years where they had to vacate wins in the early 2000's.
Penn State is not in a situation anywhere near that of USC. While there is a lot of talent in Pennsylvania, there is far more in Southern California. It's not even a debate.
What's also not debatable is the stigma that will forever be attached to the Penn State football program as one that harbored a child rapist and hid his crimes for more than a decade, allowing him to continue to use his status and access to the Penn State program to groom future victims, which he did.
USC also had a two-year bowl ban compared to Penn State's four. Penn State's recruiting efforts for the next three years may look MAC-ish at best, or very low level Big Ten.
Who knows how quickly they will be able to bounce back and compete on the national stage again. They have an amazing revenue machine with their 100,000+ seat stadium and generations of fans who live and breath Nittany Lion football. I don't believe they are going to crater to the SMU level unless their administration chooses to de-emphasize football the way SMU did.
The reality is clear; the Penn State football program we have all come to know is dead. It may never come back or at the least, may take seven years or more.
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