Pass D & Myth Busters

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NYCHawkeye74

Well-Known Member
A different thread got me looking on the BT Stat's page going back to 2003 (oldest data available). I scribbled down a few notes, and I came up with a couple of numbers that surprised me:

Our Pass D is pretty average this year, and the statistics support this belief. I suspect the loss of Angerer, Eds, and Spievey hurt us more than we realized at the time. Losing 3 players to the NFL in the early rounds makes replacing them very difficult without new players really stepping up. Thus far, I would venture to say people have not stepped up. In terms of pass efficiency defense, this years team is very average, by our historical standards, as is our projected INT total. Our pass % completion against is dreadful.

Pass Eff:
Best - 2009 90.0
Worst - 2005 129.0
This Year - 108.7
Average - 109.9

Completion Percentage:
Best - 2009 49.6% (This is an amazing number in the modern era!)
Worst - 2005 62.0%
This Year - 58.2%
Average - 56.4%

This speaks to the fact that our LB's are getting beat in zone often, and we are getting beat deep, as well. There have been deep passes completed against us in every game. My best guess is that the LB's are getting beat consistently and the safety's are cheating a bit to help out, leaving them out of position if a corner gets beat.

Interceptions:
Best - 2008 23 (Led the nation, I think)
Worst - 2005 10
This Year - 9 (Projected 18)
Average - 16

Now, our rush defense statistically has been pretty good and leads the conferense, but Michigan was the first really good running team we have played. Of course, they passed for 335 yards on us, as well as running for close to 200. Yikes.

Our sack totals thus far are improved from a year ago and are 4th in the conference. This tells me that we are getting pressure on QB's, but they are completing passes at a very high rate anyway. That means guys are probably wide open. You can get lucky once or twice under pressure, but after 6 games, the completion percentage is a trend, not a fluke.

So you want to beat Whiskey? Well, no matter what Becky the Ballerina's fans might tell you, they are not a great team. They will struggle with emotions this week after getting patted on the back about how great they are. We should have an emotional advantage, at the least. The key will be stopping the run on first down. If they get into manageable 2nd downs where play action is most effective, we are in for a long day. Leave them with 2nd and 8 or more, and Iowa will win this game. Oh, and it wouldn't hurt to slow down JJ Watt a bit, as well.
 
hawkfan340 said:
Is "average" Hawk-average or national-average?
Click to expand...


Good question. Hawk average, which is almost always above average.

One other thing that really stands out is how bad the 2005 defense was. I remembered being at games and watching 3rd down after 3rd down being converted against us, but we were using a totally green and undersized line that year. They had their moments and they developed into good players later in their careers, but man did they struggle at times. We were dead last in red zone defense, and gave up a whopping 45.3% 3rd down conversion rate. In fact, 2005's pass D was so bad, it kinda skews the averages down and makes this years team look a little better than it is vs the medians.
 
NYCHawkeye74 said:
A different thread got me looking on the BT Stat's page going back to 2003 (oldest data available). I scribbled down a few notes, and I came up with a couple of numbers that surprised me:

Our Pass D is pretty average this year, and the statistics support this belief. I suspect the loss of Angerer, Eds, and Spievey hurt us more than we realized at the time. Losing 3 players to the NFL in the early rounds makes replacing them very difficult without new players really stepping up. Thus far, I would venture to say people have not stepped up. In terms of pass efficiency defense, this years team is very average, by our historical standards, as is our projected INT total. Our pass % completion against is dreadful.

Pass Eff:
Best - 2009 90.0
Worst - 2005 129.0
This Year - 108.7
Average - 109.9

Completion Percentage:
Best - 2009 49.6% (This is an amazing number in the modern era!)
Worst - 2005 62.0%
This Year - 58.2%
Average - 56.4%

This speaks to the fact that our LB's are getting beat in zone often, and we are getting beat deep, as well. There have been deep passes completed against us in every game. My best guess is that the LB's are getting beat consistently and the safety's are cheating a bit to help out, leaving them out of position if a corner gets beat.

Interceptions:
Best - 2008 23 (Led the nation, I think)
Worst - 2005 10
This Year - 9 (Projected 18)
Average - 16

Now, our rush defense statistically has been pretty good and leads the conferense, but Michigan was the first really good running team we have played. Of course, they passed for 335 yards on us, as well as running for close to 200. Yikes.

Our sack totals thus far are improved from a year ago and are 4th in the conference. This tells me that we are getting pressure on QB's, but they are completing passes at a very high rate anyway. That means guys are probably wide open. You can get lucky once or twice under pressure, but after 6 games, the completion percentage is a trend, not a fluke.

So you want to beat Whiskey? Well, no matter what Becky the Ballerina's fans might tell you, they are not a great team. They will struggle with emotions this week after getting patted on the back about how great they are. We should have an emotional advantage, at the least. The key will be stopping the run on first down. If they get into manageable 2nd downs where play action is most effective, we are in for a long day. Leave them with 2nd and 8 or more, and Iowa will win this game. Oh, and it wouldn't hurt to slow down JJ Watt a bit, as well.
Click to expand...


Doesn't really tell the whole story...because the "losses" go deeper than just Angerer, Edds and Spievey. We've lost Tarp for several games, Troy Johnson spent time out, Bruce Davis is gone for the season, Bernstine is still battling injury bug.

On the other side, we are 5-1, and that loss can hardly be put on the D...which basically gave up one big play, and as Jon pointed out, that play was six inches either way from being a harmless overthrow or an IOWA interception.
 
NYCHawkeye74 said:
The key will be stopping the run on first down. If they get into manageable 2nd downs where play action is most effective, we are in for a long day. Leave them with 2nd and 8 or more, and Iowa will win this game.
Click to expand...

I agree 100% with the above statement. I posted this on TOS yesterday.

Wisconsin is converting a guady 52% of 3rd down situations because of their success on 1st and 2nd down.

Nearly 70% of Wisconsin's 3rd downs are 3rd and less then 6 yards to go while only 48% of Iowa's 3rd downs have been with less then 6 yards to go. Wisconsin's offense is not built to score on big plays so they need to methodically move the ball down the field (Wisconsin has less pass receptions of 15 yards (45) then Iowa (53) despite the fact they have played one more game then Iowa). Put Wisconsin in 3rd and longs (they convert only 25% of their 3rd and more then 6 situations) and their drives are likely to stall.

Wisconsin runs the ball on 70% of 1st and 2nd downs so that is where it all starts...stopping the run on the early downs.

As far as the Hawk's pass defense is concerned...I like to look at the Football Outsider's S&P rankings because they look at the success of every play for the given situation and adjust for the strength of the opponents respective units (see attached link for ranking and description of analysis)

Looking at those numbers it appears the Hawks pass defense has slipped from an fantastic #2 in the country last year to #22 in the country thus far this year. The Hawk's pass defense S&P this year is almost identical to 2007 & 2008, lags slightly behind 2006 and is better than 2005.

What also jumps out at you is according to this analysis, the Hawks have the #1 rushing defense in the country thus far.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaadef
 
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Great information guys!

This is what makes these boards actually worth visiting - real analysis and statistics.


What is really interesting about tomorrow's game is looking at the player matchups.
Clayborn vs Carimi
DJK vs (really great corner...drawing a blank on name)
Zeus vs Watt
Nielsen/Hunter vs Kendricks
Iowa D-line vs WI O-line (sure hope Daniels is healthy)
Iowa safeties vs WI tailbacks
Stanzi vs himself

I think Iowa has an advantage with Reisner vs their linebackers. Should see a good game from him.
McNutt will also have to produce.
The running game needs to be good enough to make the play-action work.
Special teams must be mistake free.
 
NYCHawkeye74 said:
Our Pass D is pretty average this year, and the statistics support this belief. I suspect the loss of Angerer, Eds, and Spievey hurt us more than we realized at the time. Losing 3 players to the NFL in the early rounds makes replacing them very difficult without new players really stepping up. Thus far, I would venture to say people have not stepped up. In terms of pass efficiency defense, this years team is very average, by our historical standards, as is our projected INT total. Our pass % completion against is dreadful.
Click to expand...

NYCHawkeye74 -

First off, I agree that the departure of Angerer, Edds, and Spievey most certainly had an impact. Given the quality of those guys in coverage, it would be foolish to expect otherwise. Edds is the best cover LB that we've ever had during the Ferentz era and Angerer is the best MIKE LB in coverage that we've ever had during the Ferentz era. There will necessarily be a dropoff there. Furthermore, as Norm himself said, Spievey is the best CB that he's coached at Iowa. Regardless of Hyde's upside, you can't replace a guy like Spievey with a first year starter and expect for there to not be any drop-off.

Rather, you play to your strengths. Despite some of our drop-off in coverage ... we're also seeing a Hawkeye squad that is BETTER against the run.

However, to say that our pass D is "average" this year, at best ... I think that that isn't accounting for a few FACTS ....

1. Tarp is our #1 MIKE LB. For all intents and purposes, he has really only played significant snaps in THREE GAMES. If you don't think that his absense if being felt, then you're missing the big picture.

2. Nielsen and Hunter have been very solid against the run and Iowa's DL is even better than it was last year. In fact, Ballard is playing with much more "power" than he had last year. The very fact that Iowa is a tougher team to run against necessarily forces teams to pass more against us. Furthermore, it not only forces teams to pass more ... it also forces them to take more risks in the passing game. To that end, if you watched the Michigan game, you saw that Forcier was throwing a lot of really impressive passes. The coverage actually wasn't too bad ... the windows in the zone closed pretty quickly and Forcier had to be VERY precise with many of those passes.

3. When Iowa owns a lead in the 2nd half, they invariably scheme the D to protect the lead. While it is always the philosophy of the D to make the opposing O earn every yard, when protecting a lead, the D tends to place even more emphasis on keeping everything in front of it. As a result, aside from a few risks that the D took against Michigan, Iowa gave up A LOT of yards through the air almost by design. Had Iowa not owned such leads, then our D would likely have taken more chances in order to make stops.

Because of the above factors, I think that the 2010 Iowa pass D isn't quite as "average" as some might think. The group is certainly capable of being exploited. And that certainly is attributable to errors in the secondary. However, those errors don't quite occur with the frequency that some fans seem to think that they do. Furthermore, the Iowa LBs have actually been pretty darn solid in coverage. It's true that opposing Os have been trying to pick on them. However, for the most part, Iowa has been pretty effective at limiting yardage after the catch ... and that is what is REALLY important!
 
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