Overall this decade has been a disaster for Iowa football

S

STLhawkeye20

Well-Known Member
Let’s remove the 2015 season for a minute. Without 2015, the combined record since 2010 is 65-45. Given the fact that Iowa schedules 2-3 games against cupcakes per year (over 9 years so far), Iowa has essentially been a .500 team since 2010.

While the 2015 season was, I guess, a success, it was clearly an anomaly that was the result of an easy schedule. The two games that mattered (B10 Championship game and Rose Bowl) were both crushing losses (for different reasons). So really the only thing that Iowa “comes away with” from 2015 is being able to say that they had an undefeated regular season.

Why remove 2015? Because it’s just a flashpoint that came at the perfect time to make this decade of Iowa football feel like it wasn’t a total disaster. Even though Iowa didn’t win anything meaningful during 2015, the season is still in recent memory and gives KF supporters something to point toward. The Rose Bowl berth and undefeated season appeased the fan base far more than it should have by coming at the halfway point of the decade. Just think about it—how long and brutal would this decade have felt to you had 2015 never happened?

The random upsets against top 5 teams at home are similar flashpoint: nice and fun, but totally meaningless in the scheme of what Iowa should realistically accomplish (competing for and occasionally winning the B10 West). The upsets, just like 2015, give the illusion that Iowa’s been a better program than it has been in reality.

Since 2010, Iowa’s won an Insight Bowl, Pinstripe Bowl, and Outback Bowl. Three mediocre bowls. Yawn. Since 2010, there have been zero B10 championships (one appearance), while teams like NW and now presumably Minnesota are going to Indy. A huge indicator of how terrible this decade has been as a whole is how many Hawks are making an impact in the NFL. I hear so many Hawks’ names called on NFL Sundays but KF and crew hasn’t been able to use that talent to appear in more than 1 game in Indy. Iowa has had senior quarterbacks on three separate occasions and each season has been a mediocre disaster.

So, yeah, evaluating the decade as a whole (assuming Iowa finishes 3rd/4th and plays in another Mediocre Bowl), it’s been a complete failure. KF was a hero to me during my childhood but it’s clear that the program needs to move in a new direction starting at the top to keep page with what’s happening in Ames, and, more importantly in Minneapolis and Wisconsin (throw NW in there maybe).
 
deanvogs said:
Yeah let’s analyze a decade, but remove all the data that hurts my argument.
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Explained this already. What did 2015 actually result in? Crushing losses in the Indy and Pasadena and 12 wins against mediocre teams. Fits in perfectly with the rest of Iowa’s seasons but the high win count (again, during an astronomically weak season) distorts the data.
 
STLhawkeye20 said:
Explained this already. What did 2015 actually result in? Crushing losses in the Indy and Pasadena and 12 wins against mediocre teams. Fits in perfectly with the rest of Iowa’s seasons but the high win count (again, during an astronomically weak season) distorts the data.
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Well if wins over bad teams don’t count, I say we should throw out some other data as well. I say the losses vs good teams shouldn’t count. So we were undefeated in 2015!!!! Yeah!!!
 
My point is that 2015 is over-inflated as a successful season (it didn’t produce anything) and came at an opportune time (I.e. the exact halfway point of the decade) to make this feel like a decent decade of football, when in reality it was disastrous. I’m saying that without 2015 (which was an anomaly), there would be no justification for keeping KF around.
 
STLhawkeye20 said:
My point is that 2015 is over-inflated as a successful season (it didn’t produce anything) and came at an opportune time (I.e. the exact halfway point of the decade) to make this feel like a decent decade of football, when in reality it was disastrous. I’m saying that without 2015 (which was an anomaly), there would be no justification for keeping KF around.
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Well you certainly cheered me up.

8-5,
7-6
4-8
8-5
7-6
12-2
8-5
8-5
9-4
6-3 thus far

I know it hasn’t felt good but just didn’t realize how bad it was.

Your right without 2015 in there it is a train wreck.

Dean I enjoy some of your insight but sometimes I think you like to argue just to argue. The numbers don’t lie. I also know you have said yourself that you felt many times Kirk needs to go. Those numbers are the numbers of mediocrity. Good grief!!!
 
Pretty sure deans point isn't to not look at the data, its too look at all the data rather than cherry pick the evidence that fits your argument. if you're gonna make a data driven argument, you can't remove all the pieces that don't fit your narrative. let the stats say what they say in their entirety. If your going to take out the outlier that doesn't fit your argument take out the argument that does best fit your argument seems to be deans point, and that makes sense. if you're going to take out the 12-2 season take out the 4-8 one. or how bout this, don't take out either and just make an actual argument.
 
iloveyoularrystation said:
Pretty sure deans point isn't to not look at the data, its too look at all the data rather than cherry pick the evidence that fits your argument. if you're gonna make a data driven argument, you can't remove all the pieces that don't fit your narrative. let the stats say what they say in their entirety. If your going to take out the outlier that doesn't fit your argument take out the argument that does best fit your argument seems to be deans point, and that makes sense. if you're going to take out the 12-2 season take out the 4-8 one. or how bout this, don't take out either and just make an actual argument.
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I understand Dean’s point on that and he is right about the cherry picking. I didn’t exclude that 12- 2 season as you noticed. To me it still doesn’t look good even with that twelve win season included. I just wish we could have won that MSU game and got a shot at Bama.

Yes it was a lot of fun going undefeated that year, but it did t bold well that Iowa and MSU both got clobbered in their bowl games and that we also did not play Michigan, Ohio State, or Penn State that year. In my opinion that years those were your best teams in the conference and Iowa fit in there with them somewhere.

Also Wisconsin had suffered several key injuries and despite that it took a freak fumble to keep them from taking the lead very late in the fourth quarter. Our offense at that time was totally stagnant in that game and Wisconsin was running through our defense like s hot knife going through a placidly warm stick of butter. Very fortunate in that game.

None the less a win is a win and too be fair it was a totally freak play in the end zone that the football just laid on the Iowa defenders back and that the MSU player noticed that a picked the ball off of our players back. We score on that drive (even just a field goal) and we are up by two scores. I think we win that game against MSU and get into the playoff.

I guess as I wrote down the wins and losses of each year for the last ten years I didn’t realize how many mediocre season we had like that. Only two year where we had nine wins or more. Winning out at this point would certainly help. Putting up a 10-3 season this year would certainly help and give a feeling of maybe turning the momentum the other way. Even 9-4 sounds respectable especially when considering the quality of the teams we lost two. However 8-5 nots so much. That would mean we didn’t beat anyone who was pretty good. It is really important that we beat Minnesota on Saturday and them win out the season win three more victories including the bowl game.
 
STLhawkeye20 said:
Let’s remove the 2015 season for a minute. Without 2015, the combined record since 2010 is 65-45. Given the fact that Iowa schedules 2-3 games against cupcakes per year (over 9 years so far), Iowa has essentially been a .500 team since 2010.

While the 2015 season was, I guess, a success, it was clearly an anomaly that was the result of an easy schedule. The two games that mattered (B10 Championship game and Rose Bowl) were both crushing losses (for different reasons). So really the only thing that Iowa “comes away with” from 2015 is being able to say that they had an undefeated regular season.

Why remove 2015? Because it’s just a flashpoint that came at the perfect time to make this decade of Iowa football feel like it wasn’t a total disaster. Even though Iowa didn’t win anything meaningful during 2015, the season is still in recent memory and gives KF supporters something to point toward. The Rose Bowl berth and undefeated season appeased the fan base far more than it should have by coming at the halfway point of the decade. Just think about it—how long and brutal would this decade have felt to you had 2015 never happened?

The random upsets against top 5 teams at home are similar flashpoint: nice and fun, but totally meaningless in the scheme of what Iowa should realistically accomplish (competing for and occasionally winning the B10 West). The upsets, just like 2015, give the illusion that Iowa’s been a better program than it has been in reality.

Since 2010, Iowa’s won an Insight Bowl, Pinstripe Bowl, and Outback Bowl. Three mediocre bowls. Yawn. Since 2010, there have been zero B10 championships (one appearance), while teams like NW and now presumably Minnesota are going to Indy. A huge indicator of how terrible this decade has been as a whole is how many Hawks are making an impact in the NFL. I hear so many Hawks’ names called on NFL Sundays but KF and crew hasn’t been able to use that talent to appear in more than 1 game in Indy. Iowa has had senior quarterbacks on three separate occasions and each season has been a mediocre disaster.

So, yeah, evaluating the decade as a whole (assuming Iowa finishes 3rd/4th and plays in another Mediocre Bowl), it’s been a complete failure. KF was a hero to me during my childhood but it’s clear that the program needs to move in a new direction starting at the top to keep page with what’s happening in Ames, and, more importantly in Minneapolis and Wisconsin (throw NW in there maybe).
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Since we're cherry-picking, I choose to remove 2012. 73-38. Boom!
 
Disaster to me is the Titanic sinking, Pearl Harbor, Haiti earthquake, etc as they are near total devastation. So I think you have a high level of hyperbole. That being said this current decade is less strong of a record of accomplishments than the previous decade. The main thing is the previous decade had two Big Championships, higher Big 10 finishes, more 10+ win seasons, and 2009 with the Orange Bowl win.

This decade is just mediocre overall. The OP is right that over the last 10 years there are about 20 easy Non Conf opponent victories while on the opposite extremes not as many victories over better teams. Winning at a 65% level isnt a disaster but the way Iowa has lost some games with mediocre offense is just that, in this decade it is mediocre and stale.
 
BigD said:
I understand Dean’s point on that and he is right about the cherry picking. I didn’t exclude that 12- 2 season as you noticed. To me it still doesn’t look good even with that twelve win season included. I just wish we could have won that MSU game and got a shot at Bama.

Yes it was a lot of fun going undefeated that year, but it did t bold well that Iowa and MSU both got clobbered in their bowl games and that we also did not play Michigan, Ohio State, or Penn State that year. In my opinion that years those were your best teams in the conference and Iowa fit in there with them somewhere.

Also Wisconsin had suffered several key injuries and despite that it took a freak fumble to keep them from taking the lead very late in the fourth quarter. Our offense at that time was totally stagnant in that game and Wisconsin was running through our defense like s hot knife going through a placidly warm stick of butter. Very fortunate in that game.

None the less a win is a win and too be fair it was a totally freak play in the end zone that the football just laid on the Iowa defenders back and that the MSU player noticed that a picked the ball off of our players back. We score on that drive (even just a field goal) and we are up by two scores. I think we win that game against MSU and get into the playoff.

I guess as I wrote down the wins and losses of each year for the last ten years I didn’t realize how many mediocre season we had like that. Only two year where we had nine wins or more. Winning out at this point would certainly help. Putting up a 10-3 season this year would certainly help and give a feeling of maybe turning the momentum the other way. Even 9-4 sounds respectable especially when considering the quality of the teams we lost two. However 8-5 nots so much. That would mean we didn’t beat anyone who was pretty good. It is really important that we beat Minnesota on Saturday and them win out the season win three more victories including the bowl game.
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Yep it is about the cherry picking. Can't leave a year right in the middle of the data out, just to try to bolster your argument. Look at the data and have the argument, not look at the data, take out the data you don't like and then say BOOM LOOK AT THIS! The same with the BS well we should take out 2-3 wins a year because those were bad team. Uhhhh, look at Bama's schedule this year, every last team plays at least 2-3 bad teams a year

Listen if we finish 8-4 or worse again this season I will look at the data too and start to get disgruntled. That is what I did after the 2014, it was too many 8 win or less seasons in a row. That was the 5th year of it. If we finish with 8 wins or less again this year that is 3 out of 4 years with 8 wins or less, and the data is what it is, and I'm not as satisfied with the staff.
 
iloveyoularrystation said:
Pretty sure deans point isn't to not look at the data, its too look at all the data rather than cherry pick the evidence that fits your argument. if you're gonna make a data driven argument, you can't remove all the pieces that don't fit your narrative. let the stats say what they say in their entirety. If your going to take out the outlier that doesn't fit your argument take out the argument that does best fit your argument seems to be deans point, and that makes sense. if you're going to take out the 12-2 season take out the 4-8 one. or how bout this, don't take out either and just make an actual argument.
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That is the name of the game any more for the hate Ferentz crowd. @Fryowa says wins in the non conference and bowl games down't count. Many have said in the past 2015 doesn't count, this isn't the first time that has been tried. It is all just silly.
 
Ok, we can all agree it was not a total disaster because some good things happened. Say what you want about 2015, Iowa did go 6-0 in its division, and legitimately won a division title.

A disaster might be a little strong too since Iowa was decent not great in most other seasons.

Disappointing might be a better word. Iowa can do better and should be better.

Especially when you look at all the individual awards Iowa players have won. Jim Thorpe, Outland, Mackey, 4 different Big Ten DB of the year awards, etc.

So it's fair to expect at least 1 Big Ten championship, 3 division titles, 3 major bow wins, and an average of 9 wins a season. Instead Iowa had 0 Big Ten Championships, 1 division title, no major bowl wins and averaged about 8 wins a season. That's disappointing but not a disaster.
 
deanvogs said:
That is the name of the game any more for the hate Ferentz crowd. @Fryowa says wins in the non conference and bowl games down't count. Many have said in the past 2015 doesn't count, this isn't the first time that has been tried. It is all just silly.
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But Fry isn't silly. He s well....he s Fry.
 
deanvogs said:
That is the name of the game any more for the hate Ferentz crowd. @Fryowa says wins in the non conference and bowl games down't count. Many have said in the past 2015 doesn't count, this isn't the first time that has been tried. It is all just silly.
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Not sure why you struggle to understand that wins against Iowa State and North Texas don’t apply to winning the division and conference, but I guess if you haven’t figured it out by now maybe you won’t?? You honestly seem to be an intelligent guy, maybe there’s a tutorial on YouTube somewhere that explains how NCAA conference standings work. I’ll google it later and see if I can find some info that will help you out.

If your level of satisfaction is 7 wins and a no name bowl every year, I congratulate you. It’s be much less disappointment as a fan and I envy that mindset.

And you’re being a drama queen, btw. I didn’t throw out any years of data, I said that non-cons and bowls don’t count towards conference championships (which is fact) and thus aren’t important in the overall season. If your goal as a fan is to take a vacation to the Pinstripe or Foster Farms Bowl then those wins are probably important to you.

I said that the Hawkeyes don’t win big games, defining those big games as ones against conference opponents with winning records. Your definition of big games includes Rutgers and Purdue; we can disagree on that.

Your bar is lower, Dean, we get it. But you can’t argue that most fans (here at least) would rather win the division than beat Iowa State or Miami (OH).
 
guffus said:
Ok, we can all agree it was not a total disaster because some good things happened. Say what you want about 2015, Iowa did go 6-0 in its division, and legitimately won a division title.

A disaster might be a little strong too since Iowa was decent not great in most other seasons.

Disappointing might be a better word. Iowa can do better and should be better.

Especially when you look at all the individual awards Iowa players have won. Jim Thorpe, Outland, Mackey, 4 different Big Ten DB of the year awards, etc.

So it's fair to expect at least 1 Big Ten championship, 3 division titles, 3 major bow wins, and an average of 9 wins a season. Instead Iowa had 0 Big Ten Championships, 1 division title, no major bowl wins and averaged about 8 wins a season. That's disappointing but not a disaster.
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Much like Hayden Fry, Kirk Ferentz second 10 years isn't nearly as good as his first 10 years.
 
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