Over Under on Matt G 3pt % this year is 38%, what you got?

Over under on Matt G 3pt% next year is 38%, what you got?

  • Under 38%

    Votes: 20 37.0%

  • Over 38%

    Votes: 34 63.0%
  • Total voters
    54
  • Poll closed .
DuffMan

DuffMan

Well-Known Member
I'll take the over in a heartbeat, I think he shoots closer to 45% than 38%. Hubbard gives another dribble drive threats which presents more inside out good looks. Basabe commands more doubles in the post and plays more minutes by staying out of foul troub le which presents more inside out good looks. Matt doesn't play half the season with a splint on his off hand which helps him shoot better. I think he's poised for a big year.
 
Last edited:
I agree that it's a lock on the over. Defenses were in his jock last year. He will definitely get much better looks at the basket next year due to the attention defenses will have to pay to other players. i'm thinking in the mid 40% range.
 
Mid 40's is really tough to do. Would have to shoot 12 to 13 percent higher than he has the last two years. I think he can do what he did his freshmen year and shoot 40% again
 
He needs to ball fake and get to 10-15 feet and go glass or look to distribute. 33% from 3, 87% from the line and almost 40% from the field. He needs to be more productive offensively and IMO, that means fewer 3's and more dribble drives / post up down low to have a chance for an old fashioned 3 point play. Gatens only shot 87 free throws...he needs to be closer to 120 IMO. No shot at getting to the line when he is bombing from 3.
 
DuffMan said:
I'll take the over in a heartbeat, I think he shoots closer to 45% than 38%. Hubbard gives another dribble drive threats which presents more inside out good looks. Basabe commands more doubles in the post and plays more minutes by staying out of foul troub le which presents more inside out good looks. Matt doesn't play half the season with a splint on his off hand which helps him shoot better. I think he's poised for a big year.
Click to expand...

Agreed. I'd add having a productive Cartwright for a full season instead of just half will help, as will 2-3 other outside threats being on the court at once as a possibility (Oglesby and White w/May and McCabe as possibilities). Defenses won't be able to focus as much as they have in the past.

I also think if Matt can settle into being the #2 or #3 scoring threat instead of #1, from a mental perspective, he can flourish and actually have his best season as a Hawk. He's been counted on so much in the past, I think at times it's been somewhat of a mental block on him.
 
I second Spank's comment on 38% being a good number. I went with the under just because I can see him going 36% more than I can see 40%.
 
hawkIhoops said:
He needs to ball fake and get to 10-15 feet and go glass or look to distribute. 33% from 3, 87% from the line and almost 40% from the field. He needs to be more productive offensively and IMO, that means fewer 3's and more dribble drives / post up down low to have a chance for an old fashioned 3 point play. Gatens only shot 87 free throws...he needs to be closer to 120 IMO. No shot at getting to the line when he is bombing from 3.
Click to expand...

Won't happen. Matt seems to do a nice job of padding block stats for opposing teams. He simply isn't strong or tall enough to regularly draw the foul when he drives to the basket.

I'm taking the under. Matt had plenty of wide open looks from beyond the arc last season and couldn't complete. Some of those were critical misses in close games. Matt's shot is a pull up jumper from 10-12 feet and from 15 feet at the FT line.
 
hawkIhoops said:
He needs to ball fake and get to 10-15 feet and go glass or look to distribute. 33% from 3, 87% from the line and almost 40% from the field. He needs to be more productive offensively and IMO, that means fewer 3's and more dribble drives / post up down low to have a chance for an old fashioned 3 point play. Gatens only shot 87 free throws...he needs to be closer to 120 IMO. No shot at getting to the line when he is bombing from 3.
Click to expand...
He is not the dribble drive penetrator on this team and that should be evident by now. I felt he did a better job with it last season but its a move for him to open up the better part of his game, jump shots from deeper than average.
Having a 2nd penetrator on the team and Marble likely improving with this Gatens is going to get alot more open shots.(Josh O. too). If we land a 2nd big man with a presence offensively to take the double off Mel than we are in business.This may be White IDK.McCabe will benefit here as well. May needs to decide what his primary game is and work on it because he's too talented to not be a solid contributor.
 
Took the under -- I think 37% is realistic; hopefully close to 43% overall.

He shot 40.3% freshman year with plenty of other decent 3-pt options on the floor to help keep defense honest --
Kelly = 36.5%, Peterson = 39.7%, Tucker = 42.7% and Bawinkel = 36.7%.
All of these were significantly better 3-pt% than MG has been his last 2 years. Not to mention, Kelly & Peterson were decent dribble-drive threats and you had Cy Tate in the middle.

Now you think he's going to go from 32.8% soph & 33.1% jr to close to 45% because of Hubbard's quicks and Basabe's dramatic improvement in consistency and playing foul-free? Talk about betting on the come!

MG has gone from 129 attempts (18% of total) to 177 attempts (23.5% of total) to 163 attempts (35% of total) over his career. He's had an incredible amount of open looks in all these attempts, including the last 2 years. Problem isn't that he needs others to create for him, problem is he simply isn't making his open shots.

Agree with HawkIhoops ... MG needs to break away from becoming Bawinkel II and focus on the ball-fake, 1 or 2-dribble stop-n-pop and hope he creates some more free-throw chances.
 
tweeterhawk said:
Won't happen. Matt seems to do a nice job of padding block stats for opposing teams. He simply isn't strong or tall enough to regularly draw the foul when he drives to the basket.

I'm taking the under. Matt had plenty of wide open looks from beyond the arc last season and couldn't complete. Some of those were critical misses in close games. Matt's shot is a pull up jumper from 10-12 feet and from 15 feet at the FT line.
Click to expand...
Matt did have alot of open looks that he missed last year but he was also elevating his D and focusing on the dribblke drive more and think this got into his legs more than he was used to in the past,hence poor shooting % but he will not have to rely on that as much this year and should be back to his old self bombing away.
 
STILLBUSTER said:
Now you think he's going to go from 32.8% soph & 33.1% jr to close to 45% because of Hubbard's quicks and Basabe's dramatic improvement in consistency and playing foul-free? Talk about betting on the come!
Click to expand...

If you take out the games he played with a splint on his hand (not even factoring in the ones it was off but he was still clearly hurt) he shot well over 35% last year.
 
DuffMan said:
I'll take the over in a heartbeat, I think he shoots closer to 45% than 38%. Hubbard gives another dribble drive threats which presents more inside out good looks. Basabe commands more doubles in the post and plays more minutes by staying out of foul troub le which presents more inside out good looks. Matt doesn't play half the season with a splint on his off hand which helps him shoot better. I think he's poised for a big year.
Click to expand...

In general, this. Gatens not having to be the first or even second option will make him extremely dangerous. I don't know about 45% but certainly over 38%. The big question is how quickly he will be able to adjust. He's been the man for his entire BB career. Even though he'll be better for it not being the first option, it might take him a while to get used to it on the floor.
 
Only his freshman year was Gatens over 38%. He's been well under since. I think he'll be better next year, but I'm still taking the under. I hope I'm wrong, though.
 
I see him as having a Diebler-like year this year. I don't think he will be nearly as good as Diebler was, but I could see him being very dangerous. Mostly because he will be the 3 or 4th option on the floor. Cartwright and Hubbard (Or even a healthy May) will make the defense worry about the drive, and this will be extremely beneficial for Matt. His freshman year, not too many teams knew about him until later in the season. Then the last two years he has been forced to do more than he could physically do. This year there will be a load off his back.
 
Tough one, I will go over. Matt does not seem to shoot well when the team is trailing. I think Matt may put a little too much pressure on himself to bring the team back. On the flipside when we get a little cushion he seems to be deadly. He gets a little hop in his step and really gets his shooting going. If the team finishes over .500 in big ten I think he is over 38% for the season. If we come close to wining 20 games, I think Matt may shoot in the low 40's.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Share this page

Top