Outback bowl chances now?

I think IF MSU implodes and loses to MN and OSU then I think theres a 25% chance of the cap 1...

Can't happen. Iowa would have finished 5-3, while MSU finished 7-1. You can't leapfrog a team that's two games ahead of you in the conference standings.

The ONLY way I see us having even the slimmest of chances, would be if Wisconsin were to lose and MSU made the BCS. Then we would technically be allowed to leapfrog Wisconsin (since they would only be 1 game ahead of us), but even then, I wouldn't see it happening.
 
Not to mention Iowa beat both teams on the road by a combined 37 points.

Which means very little to the bowls. All they care about is money. Iowa has a similar resume to the other teams in consideration, but the fanbase will put them over the top.
 
I'd say at least 50% assuming that MSU doesn't blow it against Minnesota. Even if they do Wisconsin could still get that second bid.

Pull for MSU to beat OSU or Auburn to beat Alabama. Those are the two most certain ways for the BIG to get two teams in the BCS.
If Alabama gets beat, then it's OSU to the title game and either Wisc. or MSU to the Rose.
If MSU beats OSU, then MSU is in as Champ. and no way OSU does not get a BSC game.
 
2 in the BCS it is likely the outback....one in the bcs and it is either the Gator or BWW.
 
How about a South Carolina matchup. I would absolutely love to see a Clowney - Scherff matchup. God, would that be awesome. Knowing Clowney and Spurrier, they would move him to the right side of our line to avoid the hype and the inevitable beat down Scherff would apply. I don't see him going toe to toe with Brandon for 60 minutes...Scherff will wear him down and punish him. If for some freak of nature, Clowney were to get the best of him, maybe Brandon decides to stay...I'll take that scenario too. I give that a 5% chance of happening though.
 
How about a South Carolina matchup. I would absolutely love to see a Clowney - Scherff matchup. God, would that be awesome. Knowing Clowney and Spurrier, they would move him to the right side of our line to avoid the hype and the inevitable beat down Scherff would apply. I don't see him going toe to toe with Brandon for 60 minutes...Scherff will wear him down and punish him. If for some freak of nature, Clowney were to get the best of him, maybe Brandon decides to stay...I'll take that scenario too. I give that a 5% chance of happening though.

Umm. I like Brandon, but Clowney would own him with his speed. Have you SEEN that guy play?
 
i've not seen any scenarios with us getting into the Capital One bowl. We would have to somehow end up "3rd" right? Or maybe MSU fans won't travel and snagging IA is allowed as the Cap1 pick even if we finish 4th?

I know that MSU doesn't travel, as well as Iowa, but MSU went 8-0 in the Big Ten.
CapOne, almost always select their teams with the best record.
In 2003, Purdue and Iowa were both 9-3, but Purdue beat us head-to-head, and the CapOne still took Purdue, despite Purdue brought far fewer fans than Iowa would.
IMO, 0% chance of CapOne.

Outback does funny things in selecting teams and might be tempted to take a Nebraska team, who has never played at the Outback Bowl.
 

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