You bring up a good point. Sports is so interesting in that the element of chance/luck does play a big role in how things are perceived. Literally, if any of the following things occurs this season this whole argument would be framed differently:
Hollins missed the 3 for Minnesota with 11 seconds to go with Minny down 2.
Jackson's 3 at Wisky with 12 seconds left that hits the front of the rim, hits the top of the backboard, comes right back down through the net. Game over at that point if that shot doesn't go in and Iowa up 3.
Marble's clear look at a 8-footer at the end of regulation at Purdue rims out. Game goes to OT and Iowa loses.
Any of those happen and Fran is praised as knowing exactly what the team needed to gain confidence for the season. In all 3 of those instances, the odds are in Iowa's favor.
In retrospect, yes, Iowa could have helped themselves greatly just by having more teams in the 250 RPI range instead of 300+. And Iowa needs to do a better job of scheduling with RPI in mind. There is a way to do a better job of scheduling easy home wins in the non-con against teams that are merely bad instead of among the worst teams in the country. Other teams have figured it out, we should be able to do so too.