The odds of making the NBA is 99% on the player and 1% on the school he goes to (give or take). It makes way more sense to make your decision based on other things more so than on which school may or may not help you in the 1% category.
One-on-One with D.J. Carton - Video Interview & Transcript
- Thread starter RobHowe
- Start date
The odds of making the NBA is 99% on the player and 1% on the school he goes to (give or take). It makes way more sense to make your decision based on other things more so than on which school may or may not help you in the 1% category.
SteveGarvey1
Well-Known Member
Offensive linemen and tight end recruits like to come to Iowa because for all his faults, Kirk does churn out guys at those positions into the NFL. DJ might use that same line of thinking here.
Fryowa
Administrator
That's total conjecture to say it's 99/1.
And I would disagree totally. Playing for a blue blood, going deep into the post season and having a high likelihood of winning your conference puts a player in the national spotlight, on national TV, brings him all kinds of attention which, like it or not, helps sell a player to the NBA. Those kinds of teams naturally have much, much better coaching which further develops players.
All of our points here are conjecture, but in this case I am at least providing tangible arguments for why school choice can and does have an affect on a player's national exposure (again, important whether you believe it or not) as well as skill development. John Beilein has a proven track record of success winning games and getting players drafted (all but one in the first round). Those are hard facts and none of it is coincidence. He is a better coach than Fran by orders of magnitude and he wins...period. Is part of it because of recruiting advantage? Absolutely. But the fact still remains.
The crux of the argument here is where will he have a better chance of making the pros. Just look at the output by both coaches, it's really that simple. Beilein does it better by a large margin. 7 first rounders, 8 total vs. 1 at Iowa since 2007. How can you even argue this?
FirstDownHawkeyes
Well-Known Member
If a unbiased person put odds on this, it should give Iowa the best odds of any 1 program. Iowa is the only school on his list that would offer guaranteed immediate playing time and is the hometown school. Iowa holds something unique. MI may be his “best” offer but that could change in an instant if Duke/NC/KS/Nova get involved an then MI holds nothing uniqaue. The smart bet is sill on the field (which could be MI). Keep in mind there will be at least 5 loser in his top 6. Each one individually is likely to lose. One will not (or all will).
Adam
Well-Known Member
It's not that any of your points or examples are false. I can agree with many of your stipulations. My main disagreement with you on this topic revolves solely around the premise, that it is a lost cause. I do not believe this to be true.
The kid currently holds better offers than Iowa's. He will probably even add a couple that are even better then his current. None of that matters. We are the home school, He is a legacy. He knows and is comfortable with a majority of the known roster that he would play with and Fran has really rolled out the red carpet. Once we get him on campus for an official Fran will have his chance to seal the deal. I believe Iowa will and should have a punchers chance all the way until the end.
Is Kentucky better at getting guys into the NBA or are they better at landing guys who are capable of getting into the NBA? You could just as easily argue that a guy like Cook would get lost in the shuffle at Kentucky, lose confidence, and fade away. Where as at iowa, he could be the man, gain confidence, be on the first team all conference team, and make the NBA.
There are guys who will make the NBA no matter where they go. There are guys who will never make the NBA no matter where they go. There are guys who are tweeters and get the benefit of doubt because there are at a blue blood. There are guys who end up excelling more because they are at a smaller school. Saying a school like Kentucky is better at getting guys into the NBA is stupid when every guy they recruit would go to the NBA no matter where they decided to go.
lightning1
Well-Known Member
Maybe the known roster is the reason he hasn't committed. The kid has played with high end D-1 talent all summer.
Fryowa
Administrator
I understand your premise, but the how’s and the why’s don’t matter. Carton will go where he thinks he has the best chance to become an NBA player, and for whatever reasons, that is not Iowa. I use Michigan just because that’s his other offer, but it’s not arguable that their program gets a lot of players drafted whether it’s because of development, recruiting advantage, or whatever. Doesn’t matter why or how, they just do. And likewise, for whatever reason you choose, Iowa does not. He’s even said twice that I’ve read and I’m sure more often, that he’s already got one and done on his mind. That’s just not us, and it won’t be in the future.
And no recruits with his kind of talent level go into a program worried that they’re going to get lost in the shuffle, they go there because they have tons of confidence and believe that they’ll stand out. That’s the kind of drive and determination that got them where they are.
Your example that it’s stupid to think Kentucky is good at producing NBA talent is understandable on the surface, but it’s just as stupid. Whether Kentucky produces that kind of talent or just recruits it is totally irrelevant. The only thing that matters is that they crank those kids out and the Iowas of the world don’t.
Adam
Well-Known Member
Actually the recent video interview Rob published DJ says the exact opposite. Here is a pertinent quote.
DJC: Academics are a huge thing. That’s No. 1. I’m going to college to get my degree. I still want to go to the NBA, whether that’s after four years or whatever the journey is for me. I want to study journalism and communications. I want to be a broadcaster, analyst for sports, basketball. I want to stay around the game of basketball and be able to give my take on things and be able to watch young players.
Unless your saying he's a liar, then Iowa should still have a shot.
Fryowa
Administrator
You and I just disagree on what we think his intentions are.
You think he’s saying he’s still considering Iowa, I think he’s just being diplomatic. That doesn’t necessarily make him a liar.
We’ve all said things to people to be nice and not offend them.
Adam
Well-Known Member
Yes, we do.
Adam
Well-Known Member
I'm pragmatic enough to admit that this is possible. It just is not my read on the kid.
Now if a real blue blood swoops in it could change the kids mentality completely and that NBA "goal" my start to look like a steak dinner. As of this minute it appears that he understands that he will have to work hard and the NBA is certainly not a guarantee. All honesty he should be thinking that way, because I'm sorry but he is not a 1 and done. Not at Iowa and not anywhere.
SteveGarvey1
Well-Known Member
None of us are in his circle of family or friends. It's all opinion, gut feeling, and trying to discern what he means from his quotes. In my opinion, he's probably not coming to Iowa but there is now way any of us can say with 100% certainty he's not coming here.
FirstDownHawkeyes
Well-Known Member
Everyone is negative about this recruitment bc Iowa seemingly NEVER wins battles like this that go this late even for hometown kids (J Weiskamp was decided early). Other than blue bloods no one usually wins battles like this. That having been said, Iowa is in this w just as good a shot if not better than any other individual program. Money is on the field of course.
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So Carton is going to Indiana then? Michigan is not a blue blood.
Fryowa
Administrator
Wow. You sound like a Nebraska fan.
Michigan is a whole lot more blue blood than Indiana in the past decade. But I guess if you want to go back to the 90s like a husker, you're probably right.
Adam
Well-Known Member
Fine. I'll give it to ya.
