Omg

[4thngoal]

They don't need do any of that, what are you talking about? They just need to score more point than their opponents do in any particular game.

Look at 2018 Northwestern, they went 8-1 in the B1G

AVG 24.2 PPG and allowed per game 23.2 PPG.

Iowa 2018
Avg 31.2 PPG and allowed 17.8 PPG

That's true but it is the same as number of games you win. The closer you get to perfection the more every little thing matters. One crappy call against you that keeps a drive alive can be the difference between going 8-1 or 9-0.
Our defense has room to improve, I'm not denying that, but they were pretty good. They were probably better than 6-3, but they were not 9-0 good. Our offense was probably 3-6 maybe 4-5 good. There is no arguing that if our defense can maintain the current level and we put up more points (it's easier for our offense to jump up 40 spots then for our defense to jump up 3).
If our defense can maintain or get better, I would then expect the dynamic to shift in 21 because a whole bunch of them are going to be getting paid on Sundays and the offense is going to need to pick up the slack. But never say never, because Phil has shifted into a time where he is capable of reloading.

 

[Motigerhawk]

Next year looks like a 6-7 win year.

I always thought Iowa was playing for 2020. Then KF would retire and BF takes over after an 11 wi season and a trip to Indy and the Rose.

KF sure knows how not to lose.

 

[SpiderRico]

In my mind, it's one thing and one thing only....redzone conversions.

We made it to the redzone 38 times in 2019, which for a team that typically packs a defense like we do, that's an okay number. By comparison, Wisky made it 47 times.....not quite 1 more attempt per game.

The difference, though, is the conversion rate. We converted only 52% of our redzone attempts into TDs. Wisky, by comparison, converted nearly 70% of it's redzone attempts into TDs.

Even if we didn't get to 70%, but got to 60%, that's 4 more TDs rather than FGs. At a difference of 4 points per, that's 16 more points. We lost our 3 games by a combined 14 points. So yeah.

By the way, we had 32 passes of 25+ yards which is now the KF record for a season. So the passing game, in my mind, is where it needs to be for the most part. The running game needs figured out, which will directly correlate to redzone conversions.

For comparison purposes over the last 5 years:
2015 - 56 RZ attempts, 36 TDs = 64.3% TD conversion
2016 - 54 RZ attempts, 35 TDs = 64.8% TD conversion
2017 - 41 attempts, 27 TDs = 65.9% TD conversion
2018 - 49 attempts, 32 TDs = 65.3% TD conversion
2019 - 38 attempts, 20 TDs = 52.6% TD conversion

 

[pythagoras]

First of all

I see another 7-8 win schedule next year like always.

But they won 9 this year so "always" is incorrect here

 

[Chickenlounge]

Blah Blah Blah. Division champions should be based on the record inside the division. DiNardo agrees with me. He knows more about football than either one of us.

It is a purely academic discussion anyway. They won't get rid of the current format, although I could see them rebalancing the divisions (move Michigan or Penn State to the West?)

Didn't DiNardo pick Nebraska to win the West this year?

 

[Fryowa]

Blah Blah Blah. Division champions should be based on the record inside the division. DiNardo agrees with me. He knows more about football than either one of us.

It is a purely academic discussion anyway. They won't get rid of the current format, although I could see them rebalancing the divisions (move Michigan or Penn State to the West?)

You can "blah blah blah" all you want, but you're still dodging the point that the reason you're whining about it is because you think it isn't fair to Iowa that games against Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan count.

Fairness by definition means fair to both sides. So explain how that's fair to Indiana, Michigan State, or Maryland...Or are you one of those, "I want what's best for me, and F everybody else" people? Because that pretty much makes you a Nebraska fan.

You're saying you want Iowa's games against tough teams to not count because they're hard, but they have to count for other teams. Riiiight. Yeah, that makes sense.

I suppose you walk around bitching about other people having more money than you and how it's not fair, and then whine if someone took your money?

 

[NikeHawk21]

Meh.
I think we split OSU and PSU.
If we take care of business we will most definitely be playing for something when Wisconsin comes to town for the last game.
My thought is, that Wisconsin simply does not have the schedule to get much above a top 15ish finish. We do.
It doesn't matter if you go undefeated if you really don't play anyone. Nebraska has a tough schedule, but they need to worry about making a bowl and getting the extra practice. Minnesota is going to be super soft upfront on one side of the ball. The rest are all improving but I don't think any are prime time. Basically it should come down to Iowa and Wisconsin and we will hold the sos. So we can blow them out on the national level.
It's a great opportunity.
Iron sharpens iron.

Winning the West division has nothing to do with where you rank in the polls.

 

[JoeyLabasForPresident]

They don't need do any of that, what are you talking about? They just need to score more point than their opponents do in any particular game.

Look at 2018 Northwestern, they went 8-1 in the B1G

AVG 24.2 PPG and allowed per game 23.2 PPG.

Iowa 2018
Avg 31.2 PPG and allowed 17.8 PPG

In order to have won those games, they needed that many more points per game, on average. I’m not sure how you don’t understand that. If you lose by five points, and your team happens to have a great defense and a shit offense, and you are having a discussion with another person about needing a better offense, it’s pretty reasonable to say that if your shit offense had scored another six points, you would have won the game.

 

[deanvogs]

In order to have won those games, they needed that many more points per game, on average. I’m not sure how you don’t understand that. If you lose by five points, and your team happens to have a great defense and a shit offense, and you are having a discussion with another person about needing a better offense, it’s pretty reasonable to say that if your shit offense had scored another six points, you would have won the game.

All I am saying is we "average" better PPG and PPG allowed than Northwestern in 2018 and it didn't matter. You just need to spread out the points you score better is all.

 

[oldhawk12]

So as I start to look ahead I pull up Wisconsin's 2020 schedule. Michigan, Maryland and Indiana are their cross overs. (They do have Notre Dame as one non con.)
Well I guess if you want to be the best you have to beat the best.
What will be interesting is how do you move up the rankings when you only play a couple of ranked opponents? Michigan, Notre Dame and Minnesota (yes a Minnesota team that loses a lot) will be their biggest games before coming into Kinnick at the end of the season.
We have a chance not only to catch them but blow them out of the water next year.

Lol. Iowa has gotten considerable favor from scheduling during the entire ferentz era. To even bring this up as a thing is beyond ironic

 

[ModebaSan]

Here is next years opponents returning off. and def. starters. Keep in mind, this does not include any special teams or possible JR’s declaring for the NFL draft.

In order of appearance
Vs Northern Iowa. Off-8. Def-9
Vs Iowa St. Off-4. Def-7
At Minnesota. Off-9. Def-7
Vs Northern Illinois. Off-8. Def-6
Vs Michigan St. Off-9. Def-6
At Ohio St. Off-8. Def-5
At Penn St. Off-9. Def-5
Vs Northwestern. Off-10. Def-8
At Illinois. Off-8. Def-7
Vs Nebraska. Off-11. Def-5
At Purdue. Off-10 Def-8
Vs Wisconsin. Off-8. Def-9

In contrast
Iowa Hawkeyes. Off-7. Def-7

 

[kameltoez102]

In order to have won those games, they needed that many more points per game, on average. I’m not sure how you don’t understand that. If you lose by five points, and your team happens to have a great defense and a shit offense, and you are having a discussion with another person about needing a better offense, it’s pretty reasonable to say that if your shit offense had scored another six points, you would have won the game.

You can "blah blah blah" all you want, but you're still dodging the point that the reason you're whining about it is because you think it isn't fair to Iowa that games against Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan count.

Fairness by definition means fair to both sides. So explain how that's fair to Indiana, Michigan State, or Maryland...Or are you one of those, "I want what's best for me, and F everybody else" people? Because that pretty much makes you a Nebraska fan.

You're saying you want Iowa's games against tough teams to not count because they're hard, but they have to count for other teams. Riiiight. Yeah, that makes sense.

I suppose you walk around bitching about other people having more money than you and how it's not fair, and then whine if someone took your money?

They really just need to eliminate the damn division anyway and have 1 more conference game for all teams to make it 10 games and then the top two teams play in a championship game. The divisions in my opinion were never really a good idea. If you make everyone play each other for the most part you eliminate most of the bitching and evens out the competition

 

[Fryowa]

They really just need to eliminate the damn division anyway and have 1 more conference game for all teams to make it 10 games and then the top two teams play in a championship game. The divisions in my opinion were never really a good idea. If you make everyone play each other for the most part you eliminate most of the bitching and evens out the competition

To play everyone in the conference you'd need 13 games, not 10.

 

[deanvogs]

They really just need to eliminate the damn division anyway and have 1 more conference game for all teams to make it 10 games and then the top two teams play in a championship game. The divisions in my opinion were never really a good idea. If you make everyone play each other for the most part you eliminate most of the bitching and evens out the competition

I think the new commish:

1) Eliminates divisions
2) Move to a 8 game schedule.
3) Gives each team 3 protected rivals they will play each year
4) That makes it easy as you play Home/Home with 5 teams in two years and then play home and home with the other 5 teams the next 2 years.

 

[BVHawk95]

Lol. Iowa has gotten considerable favor from scheduling during the entire ferentz era. To even bring this up as a thing is beyond ironic

I know you've put me on ignore since you're a gutless coward, but I'm gonna link this anyways so everyone else can see how fucking dumb this argument is.

Except for the fact that most of KFs success comes against really good schedules.

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other?date=2019-01-07

03- 10th rated SOS (10-3)
04- 12th (10-2)
05- 12th (7-5)
06- 48th (6-7)
07- 73rd (6-6)
08- 30th (9-4)
09- 32nd (11-2)
10- 35th (8-5)
11- 47th (7-6)
12- 50th (4-8)
13- 38th (8-5)
14- 59th (7-6)
15- 51st (12-2)
16- 44th (8-5)
17- 10th (8-5)
18- 27th (9-4)

With 120+ FBS teams over this time period, Iowa's schedule consistently ranks in the top half of the country, and our most successful years they rank in the top quarter.

So much for "smoke and mirrors".

 

[dirtwrap]

This is really no different than most years. We have one game that we essentially have 0 shot of winning (OSU), two games we should absolutely win (UNI and NIU), and the rest are essentially toss ups.

The QB is going to the be difference. I don't care if we lose our entire defense to graduation, until Phil Parker proves otherwise, he's always going to put a Top 20 defense on the field. And as far as our OL goes, we stunk up the joint this year and had no running game to speak of, but were still able to get to 9 wins (10 if we win the bowl). We've got some solid, yet unproven, pieces behind the guys leaving on the OL. But the good thing is we keep the most important spot on the OL, Center.

A way-too-early W/L:
UNI - W
ISU - W (mainly because it's at home)
@ Minn - W (until they beat us again, I'm always going to assume W)
MSU - W (they are an absolute dumpster fire right now)
@ OSU - L
@ PSU - L
NW - W (until they get the QB position solved, they aren't going to be good)
@ ILL - W (this was their year with all the grad transfers, they'll regress back to the mean next year)
Neb - W (until they show they have any semblence of toughness in the trenches, I'll keep picking W)
@ PU - L
Wisc - W (probably an "L", but if it's for the division and we're at home, I like our chances)

Great analysis, I do agree with everything you wrote. I dont think we are someone that our opponents want to play either. The great thing about college football is the transient part of it, and all of the teams are going to lose somebody, and for the most part entire units. OSU loses a lot of skill position players and a most of their defense. PSU loses a lot of their defense as well. Wisconsin loses Taylor, which is a unit all by itself. Minnesota loses a lot of their defense which wasnt great but good. Everyone talks about Purdue having a lot of injuries, but when you look at it closely it wasnt as bad as you think and certainly not enough to think Purdue would have went from a 4 win team to a 9 or 10 win team. MSU loses a lot on defense and they will more than likely be just as inept on offense. Looks like a bunch of close games.

 

[DBAHawkFan]

For comparison purposes over the last 5 years:
2015 - 56 RZ attempts, 36 TDs = 64.3% TD conversion
2016 - 54 RZ attempts, 35 TDs = 64.8% TD conversion
2017 - 41 attempts, 27 TDs = 65.9% TD conversion
2018 - 49 attempts, 32 TDs = 65.3% TD conversion
2019 - 38 attempts, 20 TDs = 52.6% TD conversion

Not really great numbers for wonder boy Brian. Ok, we went from a NFL QB in Beathard in 2016 to soph Stanley in 2017 so you'd expect a potential large difference

But for a senior led team, with NFL Tackles, experienced RBs (including a freshman all conference player), and the best WR corps Iowa has had in a long time and we put up those numbers???

It isn't the jimmy and joes, it's the damn scheme. 2019 reads line Kirk and Brian didn't even want to score

 

[4thngoal]

Winning the West division has nothing to do with where you rank in the polls.

I get that.
I'm more thinking that we will be battle tested. Not all, but most years the two teams in the b10 championship are ranked both in the top 10. It's just how it works most of the time.
We have that opportunity. What makes it even better is that we wouldn't be doing it against an "easy" schedule. The hype would be deserved.
Just imagine if Northwestern would have won (ranked 21) against OSU (ranked 6).
Neither would have had a shot at the playoffs and even if Northwestern had to be included (if they had a rule all p5 champs are automatically in), they would have been completely embarrassed. So it is probably a good thing that the teams that go to Indy are #1 top 10 ranked and #2 they are battle tested and worthy of their rankings.
To be the best you have to beat the best.
Which is exactly why I don't like this "omg we have to play.......we have a hard schedule" bullshit.
Go out there, beat them and make a name for yourself.

 

[HaydenHawk56]

First of all


But they won 9 this year so "always" is incorrect here

Ha. You got me partner. Let me restate.....likely 7-8 wins on average with that schedule like most years.

 

[Caddy]

Of those 32 passes that traveled over 25+ yards, how many of those went for TD? This year Stanley did hit more deep passes, but he had to put so much touch on them it caused our open WR to slow down and get tackled immediately. It does Iowa offense no good if teams are willing to let them march between the 20s, and then use the out of bounds in the EZ as a 12th defender.

Obviously losing Hock and Fant hurt production in the RZ this year, but it also showed how our WR still don't get enough separation, plus a QB who struggled with accuracy hurt the offense. Teams continue to sell out on the run because of this.

Whoever the QB is next year needs to hit those intermediate routes at a much better clip for Iowa to have any shot of winning the division (cause clearly beating the teams you're supposed to doesn't translate)

Our red zone offense sucks for a couple reasons. No running game, and a big reason for no running game is because we have a qb that can't make anyone pay for having everyone within 5 yards of the LOS. No tight ends, and a very inaccurate, indecisive qb.