HawkGold
Well-Known Member
Was waiting for that truth.
!*****Official Record Prediction Thread*****!
- Thread starter tksirius
- Start date
Was waiting for that truth.
HawkGold
Well-Known Member
Go back 10 snd subract out bowl games.
AreWeThereYet
Well-Known Member
76 wins over the last 10 years (without bowls)
That's 7.6 wins per year. Rounds to 8 wins per year.
(That includes the 4 win 2012 abomination caused by Greg Davis)
Close but no cigar buddy. That's an 8 win average.
(Without 2012 it comes to exactly 8)
10, 7, 7, 4, 8, 7, 12, 8, 7, 8
So they have won 8 or more regular season games 5 of the last 10 years. They have won 7 games x 4 times. They had one season of 4 wins.
Average of 7.8 regular season wins per season.
So 7 is the mode, with 7.5 the median, and 7.8 the mean.
AreWeThereYet
Well-Known Member
You're right, I cut them short two wins for 2015.
hawkdrummer1
Well-Known Member
So we're back to this again.
1. We're talking regular season predictions, the 12 game schedule
2. Overall...not just the last 6 years KFz is .600 win percentage
3. .600 against 12 games is 7.2 - 4.8 which is closer to 7-5 than 8-4
If you want to start picking snap shots or certain years go for it. The last five years are trending up and I think that will continue. But KFz is .600 right now, any way you slice it.
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AreWeThereYet
Well-Known Member
You mean .600 over the last 20 years.
You started talking about the last 5 years. He's 0.67 over the last 5 years, which isn't bad. Above 0.70 put you in the top 10, which is no easy accomplishment.
hawkdrummer1
Well-Known Member
.600 career at IOWA. Thought that was pretty clear. Also thought it was clear that I said he was trending up.
How do you get to "above .700"...it's not even close.
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ChosenChildren
Well-Known Member
Actually, you can argue that the only record that matters is the conference record.
I predict 7-2 in the conference, good enough to win the West in a tiebreaker and advance to the Big Ten Championship game.
Wins: Rutgers, Illinois, Minnesota, Penn State and Purdue (5-0 at home)
Road Wins: Northwestern and Wisconsin
Road Losses: Michigan and Nebby
I predict 7-2 in the conference, good enough to win the West in a tiebreaker and advance to the Big Ten Championship game.
Wins: Rutgers, Illinois, Minnesota, Penn State and Purdue (5-0 at home)
Road Wins: Northwestern and Wisconsin
Road Losses: Michigan and Nebby
SCHawkeye2
Well-Known Member
7-5
5-4 B10
5-4 B10
NorthKCHawk
Well-Known Member
I somewhat agree that conference record is what's most important, and I am sure NW fans were happy with last season, despite a mediocre record, because they got to Indy and had a shot at the Rose. That all said, Iowa State matters a lot.......
The other hurdle is northwestern, losing to Wisconsin sucks, but losing to northwestern is just life draining. At least Wisconsin has pro level talent, northwestern has fairly smart 2 star recruits.
The Hawks have hit the over on their season win total 4 of the last 6 years (as far as I was willing to look back). They have won 8 or more regular season games in 4 of the last 6. They have averaged 8.3 regular seasons wins per year over that span. Their recruiting has been trending up over that span, and they are projected to have multiple first round picks on their roster. If you want to take the under on their 7.5 projection, be my guest, but I think you are throwing your money away.
ChosenChildren
Well-Known Member
Iowa State matters for bragging rights. That's it.
I'd trade 5 wins against Iowa State for wins this year against Northwestern and Wisconsin. Beat those two, and Iowa will be playing for a big ten title.
.600 career at IOWA. Thought that was pretty clear. Also thought it was clear that I said he was trending up.
How do you get to "above .700"...it's not even close.
Those first 2 years dude, Saban himself would have struggled to get a win.
hawkdrummer1
Well-Known Member
No doubt. That's often the challenge for a new coach.
Again, we can discuss and parse the numbers and different periods of success or less success all day long. But the numbers are still...the numbers. If KFz has raised the floor (avoiding the cyclical regression like 2005-7 and 2011-14) his winning % will continue to climb and his "closing" body of work will look great. If recruiting is any indication, we could be in for another run of 9-10 win seasons. Who wouldn't love that?!
I even give Campbell a pass for his first couple of losses to Iowa. I may not say that quickly to their fans though.
hawkdrummer1
Well-Known Member
Sorry. Nobody from Ames gets a free pass for anything.
Last year I predicted 9-3; they probably should have been 10-2, but ended 8-4.
I think they are better on both sides of the ball this year, even considering the early entries. I am predicting 10-2, with a couple of tough losses in the middle of their B1G meat-grinder. I think they win in Ames, and I definitely think they win in Lincoln.
(if I was betting my life, I would have a tough time making a call between 8-4/9-3. Since my life is not on the line, I am taking the optimistic route.).
I think they are better on both sides of the ball this year, even considering the early entries. I am predicting 10-2, with a couple of tough losses in the middle of their B1G meat-grinder. I think they win in Ames, and I definitely think they win in Lincoln.
(if I was betting my life, I would have a tough time making a call between 8-4/9-3. Since my life is not on the line, I am taking the optimistic route.).
