odds of winning the BigTen West

guffus

guffus

Well-Known Member
WISC - 8 out of 16
Minn - 4 out of 16
Iowa - 3 out of 16
Neb - 1 out of 16

Iowa wins the division and tie breaker if this happens

Iowa beats wisc and Neb
Minn loses to neb or wisc
 
guffus said:
WISC - 8 out of 16
Minn - 4 out of 16
Iowa - 3 out of 16
Neb - 1 out of 16

Iowa wins the division and tie breaker if this happens

Iowa beats wisc and Neb
Minn loses to neb or wisc
Click to expand...


Thanks for posting everything that every hawkeye fan knows, but in a smarty way.
 
guffus said:
WISC - 8 out of 16
Minn - 4 out of 16
Iowa - 3 out of 16
Neb - 1 out of 16

Iowa wins the division and tie breaker if this happens

Iowa beats wisc and Neb
Minn loses to neb or wisc
Click to expand...

I don't know why you got a thumbs down.

I like it and I like our chances.
 
guffus said:
WISC - 8 out of 16
Minn - 4 out of 16
Iowa - 3 out of 16
Neb - 1 out of 16

Iowa wins the division and tie breaker if this happens

Iowa beats wisc and Neb
Minn loses to neb or wisc
Click to expand...

MN will do its part and lose one or both of their games, that is a near certainty. Question is what can the Hawks muster?
 
Using this chart and the following point spreads, plus a spread-to-percentage chart I found on BettingTalk.com, I have come up with the following likelihoods of winning the West.

Minnesota at Nebraska (-11)
Wisconsin (-10) at Iowa
Minnesota at Wisconsin (-16)
Nebraska (-5.5) at Iowa

Odds of winning the West:

Wisconsin: 88.66%
Iowa: 7.71%
Minnesota: 2.29%
Nebraska: 1.34%
 
HawkinGoferLand said:
some smarty stats guy on BHGP does this weekly THOR ratings:

http://www.blackheartgoldpants.com/football/2014/11/17/7229831/big-ten-win-projections-post-week-12

Iowa win chances: vs Wisky 34.2%. V Neb 50.8%
Wisky 87.9% v MN and 65.8% v IA
Neb 71.8% v MN. NEB 49.2% v IA
MN 28.2% v NEB and 12.1% v WISC

interesting reading if you have 5 min
Click to expand...

Based on those win probabilities, these are the odds of winning the division:
Wisconsin--78.35%
Iowa--16.78%
Minnesota--3.14%
Nebraska--1.46%
 
thejumper5 said:
Using this chart and the following point spreads, plus a spread-to-percentage chart I found on BettingTalk.com, I have come up with the following likelihoods of winning the West.

Minnesota at Nebraska (-11)
Wisconsin (-10) at Iowa
Minnesota at Wisconsin (-16)
Nebraska (-5.5) at Iowa

Odds of winning the West:

Wisconsin: 88.66%
Iowa: 7.71%
Minnesota: 2.29%
Nebraska: 1.34%
Click to expand...

How is Nebraksa favored by 5.5? Iowa doesnt have a Gordon on their team but they will be able to run the ball on Nebby. Nebraska is lousy.
 
MiniMoeHawk said:
How is Nebraksa favored by 5.5? Iowa doesnt have a Gordon on their team but they will be able to run the ball on Nebby. Nebraska is lousy.
Click to expand...

I came up with those point spreads using Jeff Sagarin's Rating and giving 3 points to the home teams.

Wisconsin 88.09
Nebraska 83.59
Minnesota 75.62
Iowa 75.36

Minnesota at Nebraksa: 83.59-75.62=7.87+3=10.87 rounded to 11.
Wisconsin at Iowa: 88.09-75.36=12.73-3=9.73 rounded to 10.
Nebraska at Iowa: 83.59-75.36=8.23-3=5.23 rounded to 5.5 (probably could have rounded down to 5).
Minnesota at Wisconsin: 88.09-75.62=12.47+3=15.47, rounded to 16 (probably should have rounded to 15.5).

Edit: Here is the spread-to-probability chart that I used. http://www.bettingtalk.com/win-probability-percentage-point-spread-nfl-nba/
 
thejumper5 said:
Based on those win probabilities, these are the odds of winning the division:
Wisconsin--78.35%
Iowa--16.78%
Minnesota--3.14%
Nebraska--1.46%
Click to expand...

I trust your numbers, but I am surprised how little respect Minnesota is getting. Yes, their 2 games are on the road, but Minny only gets a 12% chance to beat Wiscy while Iowa gets a 34% to beat Wisc? Does home field matter that much?

It just blows my mind Iowa is given a 17% chance to win the division while Minny only gets a 3% chance, yet Iowa winning the division depends on Minnesota losing.
 
guffus said:
I trust your numbers, but I am surprised how little respect Minnesota is getting. Yes, their 2 games are on the road, but Minny only gets a 12% chance to beat Wiscy while Iowa gets a 34% to beat Wisc? Does home field matter that much?

It just blows my mind Iowa is given a 17% chance to win the division while Minny only gets a 3% chance, yet Iowa winning the division depends on Minnesota losing.
Click to expand...

Yes, home field does matter that much. Iowa at home for two while Minny goes on the road for two is HUGE.

If Iowa was on the road for both games, our chances would be close to zero.
 
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