Nothing To Lose Beat Ohio State thread

I disagree the odds would have been better going for the fg with 1:40 left. The chances of losing in overtime is 50%, the chances of an interception being returned for points in the same time with a good defense maybe 10%. The chances of getting 40 or so yards to get a fg attempt is much higher than that the way was going. I would say about 3 times as likely. Not to mention it just kills momentum and gets the opposing fans back in the game if you sit on the ball. Just go for it guys if yoy get the chance again.
 


Hawknick said:
I disagree the odds would have been better going for the fg with 1:40 left. The chances of losing in overtime is 50%, the chances of an interception being returned for points in the same time with a good defense maybe 10%. The chances of getting 40 or so yards to get a fg attempt is much higher than that the way was going. I would say about 3 times as likely. Not to mention it just kills momentum and gets the opposing fans back in the game if you sit on the ball. Just go for it guys if yoy get the chance again.
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You left a lot of possibilities out of your scenario.

What if JVB throws a pick around midfield? OSU would only need 20 yards to get into FG position.

What if KF goes for the dagger and JVB throws 3 incompletions in a row? That would leave OSU with over a minute left to go for the W.

What if ARob coughs it up and OSU recovers?

The negatives for outweighed the slim chance of a positive trying to move the ball 50 yards in under 2 minutes at the Shoe with a freshman making his first start at QB.
 


I am pretty sure that if I ran the numbers the percentage of moving the ball 40-50 yards in 1:40 vs turnovers of any kind resulting in points that the 1:40 points % would be higher. I'm thinking about 30% to 10% maybe 20% in that situation. So there would be a 20% chance on the high end that going for it would cause a loss. That is one turnover per every 5 possessions. That is still 30% lower than the chance of losing in overtime.
 


Ask bill o. Sometimes you just have to say wtf. Oh and use a to and talk to your guys. Ask them if they can get it done. Wind them up and watch them go. In situations like that there is no room to second guess and if anyone does, they have to sit. When going into battle the same page and everyone believing the can and will is required including the coaches.
 


I remember a game in 2004 against OSU (good Lord, has it really been 9 years ago???) when we were coming off a bye week and we completely revamped the offense with a young sophomore QB and took them completely by surprise and proceeded to demolish them. How awesome would it be to see that Sat afternoon?!?!
 






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