...you also have to factor in the risk of them replacing Frost with someone halfway competent.
Fair point, but I think we can all agree that (especially with the position nebraska is in right now) there's a much, much greater chance that they end up with a burnt turd for a coach. There are literally thousands of Mike Reillys in the college coaching ranks and maybe 6-7 guys who have what it takes to build a program.
And to be honest, I don't think that coaching is the number one problem at nebraska anymore. It's recruiting. We've seen the quality of the product they put on the field deteriorate steadily over the years, and I really believe it's because they 1) don't have a scholarship advantage anymore since limits were instituted, and 2) well, it's nebraska. They haven't been relevant nationally since before the current crop of high schoolers were born. Yeah, they were average to above average, but so were a whole lot of other programs.
Right now, there is literally nothing compelling to draw good recruits into that sand hill wasteland. Hot in the summer, cold and snowy in the winter, nothing to do but go hang out at the local Runza, and nothing to see for hundreds of miles but corn and bean fields. One could argue for a rabid fanbase, but that only really works when you are semi-successful. It's an advantage that Iowa has. A rabid fanbase with very few losing seasons.
One could also argue their decent recruiting rankings. Which are complete bullshit. All you have to do is look at Wisconsin's average recruiting ranking relative to their conference finish and see that those guys in rivals and 24/7 are just basement dwellers cranking out ratings and articles for 20 bucks a pop. It's ludicrous to think that beyond the top 3 or 4 recruits at each position (which nebraska nor Iowa will get) that you can distinguish recruits, especially when one service tries to cover an entire country. You expect people to believe that some dude (who doesn't even do recruiting coverage full time, I went into a bunch of their bios in a previous post) living in New Jersey knows the difference between the 27th rated DB in California and the 18th rated DB in Florida? Gimme a break. Those rankings are as useful as hen shit on a pump handle. It's also pretty apparent that when you notice that nebraska's best recruits either quit the team and leave, transfer, or get arrested for drugs, assault, sex assault, or...I dunno...videotaping a rape and sending it to the girl as an insult??? Looking at you, Maurice Washington. But what else would we expect from a guy of Scott Frost's character?
At the end of the day, no one is going to turn that thing around unless they luck into the next Saban. That's what it would take and that's how bad it is. And let's not pretend that anyone at LSU knew how good Nick Saban was when they hired him. He was mediocre at best at Michigan State.