NCAA Tourny chances

bcl20

bcl20

Well-Known Member
I kind of think that today's win made it so we get in with a .500 record (provided we take down a ranked team or two). We have a fairly easy conference schedule (as easy as a BIG schedule is going to get) with the only games we have barely any shot in (at least in my mind) being @ Ohio State, @Indiana, @Michigan and @ Minnesota. At home vs Indiana will be very tough but since they lost to Butler on a neutral court, I didn't include them.

Anyways, that means, in the remaining schedule we have to go 9-5 to get to .500. Seems very doable to me, in fact I think 10-4 is doable, meaning we'd be 10-8 in conference.

I getting closer and closer to believing that we'll be dancing.

I have to say that Virginia Tech's poo filled loss to Georgia Southern today sucked a lot.
 
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the Big 10 is really tough at the top, but has some really bad teams at the bottom. Good new for a good Iowa team is that of the 6 ranked teams, they only play 2 , 2 times.

The other 4 ranked teams they only play one time, getting Illinois and MSU at home. The 2 most winnable games.

Should allow Iowa to steal a lot of Big 10 wins.

Id say right now, Iowa has a great chance.
 
I feel like it's a perfect mixture of having enough good teams to get the impact wins you need but still pad the win total with winnable games.

And of course, post number 5000 is another great piece of basketball analysis by me.
 
bcl20 said:
I feel like it's a perfect mixture of having enough good teams to get the impact wins you need but still pad the win total with winnable games.

And of course, post number 5000 is another great piece of basketball analysis by me.
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A little upset over Indiana on New Year's Eve wouldn't hurt!!!!
 
I have liked Iowa's chances at the NCAA tournament since the season ended last year. Now looking at the schedule, if Iowa doesn't fall flat on their face before conference play they have a good shot to win 9 games.

Iowa has to win both against NE, NW and PSU...simply cannot afford a loss to any of those teams, so that is 6 wins.

I have predicted Iowa to beat Indiana and MSU at home, so that would be 8 and we haven't talked about Illinois, Wisconsin yet...the potential to win 2 games is there.

Also, don't rule out a split against Minnesota either, I know they are playing well, but I still like Iowa at home against most teams.

When Iowa plays at Michigan, I will be attending, but I think that is a loss. Iowa against OSU may be closer than we think, I am not sold whatsoever on them. The game at IU will be a payback game for the Hoosiers and could be ugly.

All in all though, I can see 9 wins with a couple upsets mixed in there, but as many as 12 if Iowa can hold serve at home, probably won't happen, but I still like their chances.

Iowa has real depth and there are options off the bench they just haven't had for about 8 years, so I think anything can happen in conference play. If Marble steps up in conference play like he did today, he isn't going to score 30 a game, but be a leader and want the ball, Iowa could really surprise folks. Gesell hit shots today that just haven't been falling, if he can stay consistent along with Oglesby hitting two or three 3's a game, you just neve know.
 
I think 12 is overshooting it but I'm am considering letting myself believe in this team. They are probably better than I give them credit for (cue major upset loss to South Carolina State.)
 
sportstalent said:
I have liked Iowa's chances at the NCAA tournament since the season ended last year. Now looking at the schedule, if Iowa doesn't fall flat on their face before conference play they have a good shot to win 9 games.

Iowa has to win both against NE, NW and PSU...simply cannot afford a loss to any of those teams, so that is 6 wins.

I have predicted Iowa to beat Indiana and MSU at home, so that would be 8 and we haven't talked about Illinois, Wisconsin yet...the potential to win 2 games is there.

Also, don't rule out a split against Minnesota either, I know they are playing well, but I still like Iowa at home against most teams.

When Iowa plays at Michigan, I will be attending, but I think that is a loss. Iowa against OSU may be closer than we think, I am not sold whatsoever on them. The game at IU will be a payback game for the Hoosiers and could be ugly.

All in all though, I can see 9 wins with a couple upsets mixed in there, but as many as 12 if Iowa can hold serve at home, probably won't happen, but I still like their chances.

Iowa has real depth and there are options off the bench they just haven't had for about 8 years, so I think anything can happen in conference play. If Marble steps up in conference play like he did today, he isn't going to score 30 a game, but be a leader and want the ball, Iowa could really surprise folks. Gesell hit shots today that just haven't been falling, if he can stay consistent along with Oglesby hitting two or three 3's a game, you just neve know.
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I also have a good feeling about Indiana and Michigan State at Carver. Not such a good feeling at Michigan.......

If we continue to improve as we did the past two seasons, we have a chance against the rest......
 
bcl20 said:
I think 12 is overshooting it but I'm am considering letting myself believe in this team. They are probably better than I give them credit for (cue major upset loss to South Carolina State.)
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That's funny...my brother couldn't watch the game today and when Iowa was winning with 2:00 left, he said they can't lose now...lol...Iowa's FT shooting at the end made it more interesting than I would have liked.

This is a different team so far though, the depth makes a big difference, Iowa is getting quality play from their bench since they actually have one. People can say what they want about players and I do it myself, but Gabe, Josh, Basabe, May and McCabe seem to have bought into their roles and that is bigger than having superior talent sometimes. This team seems to get a long well, unlike teams of the past...I was at the 2006 BTT final and after the game the team did not seem like they enjoyed each other's company. There seemed to be a lot of division on that team after watching the post-game celebration. The way the lost to NW St seemed to prove that...fell apart and meltdown.

Maybe I am setting this team up for failure, but they are fun predictions and things that I believe can happen, I won't be too upset if it doesn't happen...well, if they lose to NE, NW or PSU, I will be upset, but any other losses won't bother me unless they just play terrible.
 
Iowa's "tourney" chances now hinge on finishing up the non-con with two wins and at least a .500 record in the conference in my estimation. Iowa's conference schedule is one that a reasonable person can see nine wins.

The outside factors are the major conferences and the mid majors; i.e. MVC and MWC. The SEC, Big 12, and PAC 12 do not have a lot of strong teams so the absence of teams from those conferences may prove a big factor on selection Sunday. On the other side the MVC and MWC have more teams that could be invited.

At this point Iowa has not eliminated themselves from consideration.
 
All of this looking ahead has me nervous. Can Iowa take care of S Carolina State and Coppin State first before we talk about dancing and B1G conference? Taking care of these next 2 games ensures Iowa does not have that bad Campbell type loss hanging over their heads.
 
Flip of a coin. Good win yesterday but weve played 1 road game and have 3 freshman starting. I wouldnt be suprised if late in the year we struggle as we will have guys without the experience of the grind of what is a Big 10 bball schedule.
 
ssckelley said:
All of this looking ahead has me nervous. Can Iowa take care of S Carolina State and Coppin State first before we talk about dancing and B1G conference? Taking care of these next 2 games ensures Iowa does not have that bad Campbell type loss hanging over their heads.
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Those two teams are ranked 291 and 337 in the Kenpom rankings...I hope to hell a loss to them doesnt happen
 
This non-conference is going exactly as I expected, EXCEPT I had Iowa splitting the ISU/UNI games. They won both. So they are 1 game ahead of where I thought they would be.. I picked Iowa to go 10-8 in the Big 10 (and I will still stand by that), so my new estimate is 21-10.. I like our chances!

Nothing will come easy in this league though, especially against the top half of the league this year, which is looking even tougher than I expected, so Iowa MUST win the games against the bottom feeders to have any shot at getting in the tournament.

I'm not worried about SOS given Iowa is playing in what is pretty widely regarded as the best hoops conference this year - Just can't afford many, if any, bad losses (PSU, Nebraska, and I daresay Purdue this year), and gotta steal a couple wins against ranked opponents along the way.
 
Win the next 2. Then go at least 8-10 in the toughest conference in the country and win at least 1 game in the Big Ten tourney and you are 20-13. That should be enough but would rather see 21 or 22 wins to make it a lock.
 
Iowa has no real quality wins and no terrible losses. They have to win 3 games over the top tier and win almost all the bottom games.
 
ILHawk said:
Iowa has no real quality wins and no terrible losses. They have to win 3 games over the top tier and win almost all the bottom games.
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Neither did PSU a couple years ago OOC, but they made the NCAA with quality wins in BIG and BTT...si OOC doesn't matter unleas you lose to bad teams...superstar
 
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