My take on late season collapses

[eveningnewsteam]

I agree with your post. But the truth is, all coaching decisions get second guessed when you lose, no matter what you do.

Mccaffrey switching to zone with a 4 point lead at the 3 minute mark deserves to be second guessed. It had a huge impact on Iowa losing that game

 

[PCHawk]

This doesn't make sense.

It means they had some bad luck early, now they have a here we go again attitude.

 

[PCHawk]

Mccaffrey switching to zone with a 4 point lead at the 3 minute mark deserves to be second guessed. It had a huge impact on Iowa losing that game

But if the players would have executed the zone, or OSU would have simply missed a shot or 2, it wouldn't have been questioned.

 

[PCHawk]

True, tho, I've questioned all of these things about his coaching -- in a, "won in spite of" sort of way, even when the Hawks win. I've seen them as problems since day one.

I'd even argue that the players should actually be praised for having to overcome these inherent obstacles. That, in addition to overcoming the routine challenges of their athletic and skill limitations, they also have to overcome their coaches inability to always put them in the best position to succeed, and, often times, just the opposite.

But all the coaching that you're calling out is the same coaching that makes us slightly better than the talent level every year. Unless you don't believe that, then that's a discussion for another thread. Or this one. Whatevs.

 

[eveningnewsteam]

But if the players would have executed the zone, or OSU would have simply missed a shot or 2, it wouldn't have been questioned.

Iowa never executes their zone and always gives up wide open 3s. Iowa's hope is having D1 basketball players miss wide open jumpers. Tough way to live.

 

[teachercoach]

I agree with your post. But the truth is, all coaching decisions get second guessed when you lose, no matter what you do.

True that!! I also find it interesting if you look at the current Big10 standings Iowa has had by far the most difficult schedule -

Those 5 teams the Hawks only played once??

They are currently the bottom 5 teams in the league. Iowa looks physically beat up - I think the way this schedule is a function of that

 

[PCHawk]

Iowa never executes their zone and always gives up wide open 3s. Iowa's hope is having D1 basketball players miss wide open jumpers. Tough way to live.

When our zone is clicking it's pretty good. When it's not we give up wide open 3's. If we went man at the end we would have just given up a wide open layup. Or gave up an offensive rebound putback. We've all seen that plenty over the last few years too.

My take is that Fran can obviously do some different things that may or may not give us a slightly better chance to win. But these players seem to find multiple ways to lose the game no matter what Fran does. If it's not missing the last shot, it's giving up an uncontested shot. If it's not missing free throws, it's having horrible unforced turnovers. I think there are 2 players on this team that will always find a way to sabotage the game. I think as good of a player Marble was, he always found a way to make a play that insured a loss too. My original post was about late SEASON collapses tho. Not late game collapses.

 

[skinnykilmer17]

Losing close games was an issue 3 years ago, too. I wish I knew where the thread was regarding Fran in close games, but it wasn't just the 2013-14 season where this has been an issue. I wish that wasn't the case, but it's a pattern.

I added the link from BHGP to a post following the ISU collapse.

Updated, including tonight, Fran is 17-37 in games decided by 6 pts or less in his Iowa tenure. 3-6 this season.

PCHawk or Windsor are likely to come here and respond with some garbage about it's the player's fault, or as soon as this specific group of seniors graduate it will get better because the culture will be purged.

Fact- Fran has coached here more than 4 years AND every year's team has had a DIFFERENT LINEUP.

IT ISN'T JUST THE PLAYERS. IT IS MOSTLY THE COACH.

The buck stops with the coach. Always did and always will. 17-37 in close games. 31%. Fail. Fact.

 

[PCHawk]

I added the link from BHGP to a post following the ISU collapse.

Updated, including tonight, Fran is 17-37 in games decided by 6 pts or less in his Iowa tenure. 3-6 this season.

PCHawk or Windsor are likely to come here and respond with some garbage about it's the player's fault, or as soon as this specific group of seniors graduate it will get better because the culture will be purged.

Fact- Fran has coached here more than 4 years AND every year's team has had a DIFFERENT LINEUP.

IT ISN'T JUST THE PLAYERS. IT IS MOSTLY THE COACH.

The buck stops with the coach. Always did and always will. 17-37 in close games. 31%. Fail. Fact.

5 years ago we pulled out some close wins against some good teams. I don't remember exactly but I'm pretty sure we beat Wisconsin twice in close games and I remember a Minnesota game that was really close. Do people not believe that it's possible to go through a random abnormal stretch of losses? Or do they believe that it's impossible for a tough stretch to get into players heads and make them overly nervous in close games? It's possible what I'm saying isn't the case but it's very possible that it is to. It's far from garbage. What's garbage is you saying that a perfectly reasonable explanation is garbage.

 

[99topdawg]

Losing an abnormal amount of close games 2 years ago was due to laws of averages. Losing close games the last 2 years is because of complete lack of confidence from the players due to never recovering from all those close losses 2 years ago. It snowballed and they clearly can't recover from it. Next year that won't be an issue. Jok doesn't make mistakes at the end of games. He doesn't miss free throws. He actually makes shots.

To clarify, by Law of Averages I meant that our team is a team that should have probably finished where they're going to finish. Maybe they took a frustrating path to get there, but the talent level will be on par with where they will finish. Same with MSU, only they started slow and are finishing strong.

 

[PCHawk]

To clarify, by Law of Averages I meant that our team is a team that should have probably finished where they're going to finish. Maybe they took a frustrating path to get there, but the talent level will be on par with where they will finish. Same with MSU, only they started slow and are finishing strong.

Oh gotcha. The thread got turned into a close games thread so my mind was there. The problem with Fran's close record is it has games on it we lost (which it should ) and it has games on it we've given away (which it shouldn't. It's like fans can't tell the difference.

Games like the Wisconsin game the other night we lost. It was 2 teams battling and we couldn't buy a shot. Games like the ISU game we gave away. Like I said earlier, we've had or have 3 players the last 4 years who start making abnormal mistakes in late game. If it only takes one mistake to lose, they'll make one mistake. If it takes 5 mistakes to lose, they'll make 5.

 

[PCHawk]

Fran is going to turn into a really good late game coach if he gets a point guard who's cold blooded on the offensive end and doesn't let guys have open 3's in every late game. He will be especially good if he brings in a center that doesn't leave the lane wide open and play with grease on his hands for the last 2 minutes.

I really don't like calling out players. But all you can ever say is "what if" when talking about coaching decisions. What if Fran called a time out. What if Fran played man. You don't need to say what if when talking about the players. All the really bad, unforced mistakes are slapping you right in the face.

 

[99topdawg]

We have given away a lot of games lately. For some reason, we're giving them away, but we TOOK them away from people in January. I really don't understand it. A lot of mental toughness (or "nuts" in JU's words). What the heck's the difference? The players or coaches? The coaches weren't blowing games in January but they are now? I can't put this one on the coaches as much as most people have been.

 

[PCHawk]

We have given away a lot of games lately. For some reason, we're giving them away, but we TOOK them away from people in January. I really don't understand it. A lot of mental toughness (or "nuts" in JU's words). What the heck's the difference? The players or coaches? The coaches weren't blowing games in January but they are now? I can't put this one on the coaches as much as most people have been.

Most of the games we took, we took with more than 2 minutes left tho. If it's under 2 minutes and it's a 1 or 2 possession game, that's when you see the players take a dive.

 

[SteveGarvey]

But if the players would have executed the zone, or OSU would have simply missed a shot or 2, it wouldn't have been questioned.

Everyone makes clutch 3s against us down the stretch. When it goes wrong, it goes wrong. But then when we don't guard them at the 3 pt. line, those things will happen.

 

[99topdawg]

Most of the games we took, we took with more than 2 minutes left tho. If it's under 2 minutes and it's a 1 or 2 possession game, that's when you see the players take a dive.

Absolutely. Just wondering where that team's nuts are. I can't expect JU to be in the zone for an entire season, but they've just lost it. Not just a confidence thing either. The effort. A couple of games ago, I noticed Clemmons stood out because he was playing so much harder than everyone else. That's when it really hit me that the team had lost that extra something it had.

 

[SteveGarvey]

Funny thing is, we'll still finish 11-7 in the conference with two more losses, which is better than most of thought they would finish. It's just a regression to the mean thing.

 

[Xerxes]

The senior class is more of a common denominator than Fran is because the problems started when they got here. The year before we were fine in close games.

I will not be sad to see this group go. Iowa will probably take a step back next year but this year's SR class has had major meltdowns each of the last 4 years.

2012-2013 - lost several close games, gave away a late season game against Nebraska that they had to have, and complete meltdown against MSU in the BTT
2013-2014 - The last month of the season was a meltdown, worst defense I've seen since the Davis era
2014-2015 - ended the season well actually but lost to PSU in the BTT tournament and but them in the dreaded 7 seed which in many ways in worse than an 11 seed
2015-2016 - you don't need me to remind you

 

[PCHawk]

I will not be sad to see this group go. Iowa will probably take a step back next year but this year's SR class has had major meltdowns each of the last 4 years.

2012-2013 - lost several close games, gave away a late season game against Nebraska that they had to have, and complete meltdown against MSU in the BTT
2013-2014 - The last month of the season was a meltdown, worst defense I've seen since the Davis era
2014-2015 - ended the season well actually but lost to PSU in the BTT tournament and but them in the dreaded 7 seed which in many ways in worse than an 11 seed
2015-2016 - you don't need me to remind you

The players heads are so clearly not in the game at the end of every close game that I don't know how anyone can blame it on coaching.

 

[QuadCityHawkeye]

So everyone thinks late season collapses happen every year, but really they've only happened twice. This year and 2 years ago. They happen to be the only 2 times we've been ranked high. That's not a coincidence.

During years where we haven't been great, we've finished strong. I think we've actually finished better than our talent would suggest. When we sucked and beat 6th ranked Purdue, it was because we were getting better as the year went on (we had a lot of room for improvement ) and Purdue was complacent and didn't take us seriously. That's human nature and it happens all over the country every year.

In my opinion, Fran is actually a really good coach who gets his players to play as a team better than their talent level. That can be a problem when you have a top 25 team who he gets to play like a top 10 team early. As the year goes on, our team get complacent like every other team would. That's a problem because we aren't really as good as we are playing so we will fall even harder when we get complacent. A true top 5 team getting complacent can fall like Oklahoma has this year. If a top 25 team that's trapped in a top 5 team's ranking gets complacent, they fall like a ton of bricks. Especially late in the year when other teams are trying like hell every game to get their signature win.

We simple aren't talented enough to try to ride our talent against teams going balls to the wall. Fran is kinda a victim of his own coaching. If he wouldn't have coached us up to wins earlier in the year that we weren't talented enough to get, these games late in the year would be a lot easier without the target on our backs. We would probably end up with the same record if we didn't win so much early. We would have just gotten there differently and less frustrating.

Our record this year is going to end up about the same as it does every year under Fran, a little better than it should be based on talent. That's good news for the future after next year because the talent will be better.

You forgot that terrible showing against Penn State in the BTT tournament last season.