My Quick Take on Iowa's 2014-2015 Hoops Schedule

JonDMiller

JonDMiller

Publisher/Founder
Iowa released their schedule for the 2014-2015 season yesterday and here is my very quick take on how I think
things COULD look…I reserve the right to change this prediction for when I go ON THE RECORD in November.
Friday, Nov. 14 2K Classic Regional Round + IOWA CITY
Monday, Nov. 17 2K Classic Regional Round + IOWA CITY
JON: 2-0 against the likes of Dogwood State and Maple Tech

Thurs., Nov. 20 vs. Texas # New York, N.Y.
Fri., Nov. 21 vs. Syracuse / California # New York, N.Y.
JON: I will give them 1-1 in this event, likely a loss to Texas and a win against Cal.

Mon., Nov. 24 Pepperdine IOWA CITY
Wed., Nov. 26 Northern Illinois IOWA CITY
Saturday, Nov. 29 Longwood IOWA CITY
JON: This stretch has to be 3-0 and I think it will. Wow these are some ugly games

Wed., Dec. 3 at North Carolina % Chapel Hill, N.C.
JON: I doubt Iowa wins it. I hope they represent themselves well, but I don’t think this is an elite basketball team. A good one for sure and a very tough venue. I believe the last time Iowa played there was 1988 and it was a win.

Saturday, Dec. 6 Maryland-Baltimore County IOWA CITY
Tues., Dec. 9 Alcorn State IOWA CITY
JON: Would this be a good time to remind you to buy your season tickets?

Fri., Dec. 12 Iowa State * IOWA CITY
Saturday, Dec. 20 vs. Northern Iowa ^ Des Moines, Iowa
JON: Iowa MUST go 2-0 in these games to have a shot at the NCAA tournament, in my opinion. Cal won’t be a marquee win, but a win against what will be a highly rated Iowa State team would be great for the March resume. Northern Iowa is going to be very good this year, too…and they could challenge Wichita State for the Valley title. I would not be shocked if Iowa went 1-4 against the five teams they will play with a pulse in the out of conference….that’s more about the quality of the opponents than my feelings about Iowa, which are in a state of flux right now. I have to go 1-1 here.

Mon, Dec. 22 North Florida IOWA CITY
JON: Aside from the Iowa State game, Iowa’s announced home attendance will be thousands less than the number of people there. This truly is a horrible out of conference slate, with eight of the nine games being against dogs with fleas. That’s 10-3 in the non-conference and the split with UNI and Iowa State better see Iowa beating ISU, or this could be an RPI unfriendly out of conference.

Tues., Dec. 30 at Ohio State Columbus, Ohio
Mon, Jan. 5 Nebraska IOWA CITY
Thurs., Jan. 8 Michigan State IOWA CITY
Tues., Jan. 13 at Minnesota Minneapolis, Minn.
Sat., Jan. 17 Ohio State IOWA CITY
Tues., Jan. 20 at Wisconsin Madison, Wis.
Sat., Jan. 24 at Purdue West Lafayette, Ind.
Sat., Jan. 31 Wisconsin IOWA CITY
Thurs., Feb. 5 at Michigan Ann Arbor, Mich.
JON: HOLY FREAKING SMOKES! This is a challenging stretch of games this year…in some years, this would be a murderer’s row…but this year, there is more bark to teams like Ohio State and Michigan State than bite, perhaps…neither program will be going to the Final Four or challenge for an Elite Eight bid…THAT SAID, this is still a tough stretch. Real tough. Purdue will be better this year, but Michigan will be down a bit. Wisconsin will be a Final Four pick and Iowa gets them twice in the first nine games. The Gophers won the NIT and they will have a solid club. I would be estatic if Iowa could go 5-4 here. 4-5 is more realistic but 3-6 isn’t a reach, while 6-3 would be cloud nine.. I’ll say 4-5.

Sun., Feb. 8 Maryland IOWA CITY
Thurs., Feb. 12 Minnesota IOWA CITY
Sun., Feb. 15 at Northwestern Evanston, Ill.
Thurs., Feb. 19 Rutgers IOWA CITY
Sun., Feb. 22 at Nebraska Lincoln, Neb.
Wed., Feb. 25 Illinois IOWA CITY
Sat., Feb. 28 at Penn State University Park, Pa.
Tues., March 3 at Indiana Bloomington, Ind.
Sat., March 7 Northwestern IOWA CITY
JON: Here is the payoff for the tough front nine; a very manageable back nine. Iowa should go 6-3 here or better. I’ll go 6-3.

That would put Iowa at 10-8 in the Big Ten, which won’t be as good this year as it has been in each of the last three years. Add that to a 10-3 out of conference that could easily be 9-4 or 8-5 and this team is going to struggle to get an at large NCAA bid.

But as I type that, this thought came crashing into my head; what will this team be like? We know the names and faces, but I really think this team will remain a mystery for a while…and there is a chance that this squad could have better chemistry than the team from one year ago.

I’d wager more on the NIT side than the NCAA side, but this team could surprise me and others. I am really looking forward to seeing what it becomes, but not until after we’ve had our fill of football. Really, it’s going to be tough to pay attention until the team gets to New York on November 20th.

Did I mention how bad that out of conference home schedule is?

Lastly, I am sure there will be some folks piling on for being so negative this early on, or this was a rushed prediction, etc.

Here’s what I did last August when the slate was released.
 
Wed., Dec. 3 at North Carolina % Chapel Hill, N.C.

JON: I doubt Iowa wins it. I hope they represent themselves well, but I don’t think this is an elite basketball team. A good one for sure and a very tough venue. I believe the last time Iowa played there was 1988 and it was a win.
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I remember this game well and loved it! This was the game where Roy Marble shot Ed Horton's free throws. I remember the look on Marble's face when he was trying to tell the referees "It was me!"

Edit: Found it, or at least highlights of it. 98-97. Marble's FT comes at about 2:45. Would take that again this year. Not sure my heart would, though.

[video=youtube;pDErDhn8yMM]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDErDhn8yMM[/video]
 
I think this assessment is pretty fair ... I fully expect Iowa to be NIT bound. I don't see us being much better than last season ... I think Iowa can only hope to protect its home court ... I wish I was feeling more optimistic but after last year's collapse (with a veteran team) I am very, very cautious with my expectations ...
 
If Iowa gets to 10-8 in the league, they will be on the bubble and likely in the tourney , if they can go 10-3 in the non-conference. The Big Ten is not going to be as good this year, but there will be a lot of similar talented teams, so does not mean Iowa will win a lot more games. I think Jon is fair here, as this will be a hard to predict season for the Hawks....and a trip to the NIT is very possible. Fran has the scheduling thing down pat now...two years ago, not tough enough, last year, not tough enough, this year...bout right for a middling team...
 
JHHawk said:
If Iowa gets to 10-8 in the league, they will be on the bubble and likely in the tourney , if they can go 10-3 in the non-conference. The Big Ten is not going to be as good this year, but there will be a lot of similar talented teams, so does not mean Iowa will win a lot more games. I think Jon is fair here, as this will be a hard to predict season for the Hawks....and a trip to the NIT is very possible. Fran has the scheduling thing down pat now...two years ago, not tough enough, last year, not tough enough, this year...bout right for a middling team...
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Why play Longwood, UMBC and Alcorn St though? We could have had a very high RPI with the Texas, possibly Syracuse, UNC, ISU and a solid UNI team but those 300+ schools are going to drag us down.
 
I'm close to you but I think iowa sweeps Iowa State/uni 11-2, but goes 9-9 in conference, 1-1 BTT.

21-12, firmly on the bubble but I think they get in.
 
BryceC said:
I'm close to you but I think iowa sweeps Iowa State/uni 11-2, but goes 9-9 in conference, 1-1 BTT.

21-12, firmly on the bubble but I think they get in.
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Agree. The UNI game will be tougher than ISU since it's not at home and they will be salty. I think ISU will be a late bloomer this year.
 
I don't think I agree with Jon when he talks about how brutal Iowas OOC schedule is. The OOC HOME schedule is pretty brutal sans ISU, but the overall OOC is probably about average. Texas, Cal/Syracuse, @UNC, ISU, UNI is legit and stronger than last year. Even when you throw in the rest of the (should be) cupcakes.

I haven't done my homework, but I agree we need to stop scheduling the 300+ RPI teams. I'm sure some of those qualify. But how easy it is to predict a 225 vs 300 RPI team and then get it scheduled? Probably easier said than done.
 
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If we are 21-12 with wins over say ISU, Texas, and beating the likes of Wisconsin, Michigan, or Mich St. I think we would be a lock. If we are 21-12 and our best win is over UNI and say Michigan or something like that, then we are NIT bound. It will all be about getting quality wins.
 
deanvogs said:
If we are 21-12 with wins over say ISU, Texas, and beating the likes of Wisconsin, Michigan, or Mich St. I think we would be a lock. If we are 21-12 and our best win is over UNI and say Michigan or something like that, then we are NIT bound. It will all be about getting quality wins.
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Winner Winner ... Obviously we've been lacking in this area recently
 
College basketball is about which young kid takes that step and becomes the contributor that they weren't in the previous year or that guy that can build off of what they were at the end of the season. Iowa has a lot of guys that could/should...

Maybe more this year than in any year I can remember.

If a few of these guys progress in a way the they are trending this year could be very special. The season hinges on Utoff, Woodbury, Oleseni and Jok. If two of those guys step up and become special whoa baby! I think that the young guys develope and this team gets in the NCAA at a 4 or 5 seed.
 
SnapBack said:
I don't think I agree with Jon when he talks about how brutal Iowas OOC schedule is. The OOC HOME schedule is pretty brutal sans ISU, but the overall OOC is probably about average. Texas, Cal/Syracuse, @UNC, ISU, UNI is legit and stronger than last year. Even when you throw in the rest of the (should be) cupcakes.

I haven't done my homework, but I agree we need to stop scheduling the 300+ RPI teams. I'm sure some of those qualify. But how easy it is to predict a 225 vs 300 RPI team and then get it scheduled? Probably easier said than done.
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There is a bit of luck involved in the OOC scheduling, in determining who is going to be a 150-200 RPI team vs. a 300+ team. But other teams figure it out, Iowa needs to also.

In addition, Iowa could schedule 1 or 2 Division II teams rather than a 300+ team. People might howl about that, but the Division II teams don't anchor the RPI like Maryland Baltimore County does.

This Iowa team needs some things to go well to have a good season.
 
20-11 or 21-9 or 19-12 - all of those records will have Iowa on the bubble depending who they beat and how the play coming down the stretch. That's all you can ask, be in the hunt, every year and have a chance to dance. Which makes me wonder, what the F are people so riled up about? The program is still in great shape and will be for the foreseeable future.
 
I think the overall RPI of our non conference schedule is OK. We just play too many dogs at home. Looking at the other conference team's non conference schedules make Iowa's look at least average if not better.
 
Wasn't the stated reason for not playing UNI and Drake every year was that only playing 1 of them per year would allow for more scheduling flexibility? So instead of Drake, Iowa can now play Alcorn State? Northern Illinois? Maryland Baltimore County?

Who has Iowa scheduled in place of the UNI/Drake game? Looks like they have just added another cupcake. Schedule still features 1 tournament, ACC opponent and Iowa State. At least Drake creates a little buzz within the state, and probably viewed as a more respectable win nationally than beating these RPI 300+ teams.
 
Announced today that the last two slots for the schedule have been filled....N.Dakota St. and Hampton...good choices.
 
With a brief glimpse at the schedule, I'd say 11-2 OOC & 10-8 B1G. Worse case scenario I could see 9-4 OOC & 8-10 B1G. If the latter comes to fruition this board could be difficult to visit at times, any worse and it could be downright painful.
 
What will be worse- the RPI impact of the Non-Con schedule, or the ticket sales of the non-con games (excl. ISU)?
 
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