I want to say in advance, get ready for a depressing Friday morning. I’ve only got 2 Iowa wrestlers making it into the semis. Based on seeds, McDonough’s the only Iowa wrestler that’s projected to be a semi-finalist. For Iowa to win this tournament, they need to really make their move via the wrestlebacks. Something I think they can most definitely do.
125
Returning All-Americans – #1 Anthony Robles, Arizona State (4th 2009, 7th 2010); #2 Matt McDonough, Iowa (1st 2010); #4 James Nicholson, Old Dominion (8th 2008); #5 Zachary Sanders, Minnesota (6th 2009, 5th 2010).
So McD is going to have to go through Precin for the fourth time this year in order to get into the Finals. Ugh. I don’t think Precin or McD are going to have much of a challenge getting to the semis. They’ll more than likely have another ridiculously close match. As I’ve said, McD has yet to get a TD via his own leg attack on Precin. I’m really worried about this rematch, but hopefully McD is getting in Precin’s head. McD has to win this in regulation. Precin’s mat wrestling is superior and he’ll come out as the victor if this goes to tiebreakers. I’ll say McD over Precin, but I’m not overly confident in this.
The NCAA rejoices as Robles get to the finals in a walk. An interesting note: Robles possible 2nd round opponent (Keith) gave him his closest match of the year, a 7-4 decision.
They key for McD to beat Robles is getting that 1st takedown. McD’s best offense is the low single. In order to takedown Robles, he’s going to need to keep his distance and work to score from the front headlock position. Easier said than done. When Robles is on top (Robles will choose top, McD will most likely choose neutral), McD has to get out quick and not let him get to his wrist. Robles is too strong and if given the opportunity he’ll control the wrist and tilt you like crazy.
#2 McDonough (Iowa) over #1 Robles (ASU)
133
Returning All-Americans - #1 Jordan Oliver, Oklahoma State (4th 2010); #2 Andrew Hochstrasser, Boise State (4th 2009); #3 Andrew Long, Penn State (2nd at 125 2010 for Iowa State); #4 Tyler Graff, Wisconsin (5th 2010); #8 Mike Grey, Cornell (6th 2008); #11 Scotti Sentes, Central Michigan (7th at 125 2009).
Tony must be on his game right away. His opponent in the pigtail is no slouch (Ranked #11 in Intermat’s final regular season poll, the #20 overall recruit in the 2010 class) who has a couple of wins over the 10 seed (Peterkin of Penn). However, I really liked how Tony bounced back after losing the heartbreaker to Graff at Big 10s. He came on strong in the wrestlebacks and dominated #7 Futrell (a guy who’d beaten Tony at Midlands) from beginning to end. If he gets by Cagnina and Keller, he should face #11 Sentes in the 2nd round. Sentes is REALLY long and will have a noticeable size advantage against Tony. To give you an idea of his background, he beat Tyler Clark at Midlands (2-1) this year on the way to a 3rd place finish. He lost to Nate Moore (2-1) at the 2009 Midlands. He’s a 3-time NQ, finishing 7th as a freshman. I like Tony to win this matchup and moving onto the quarters. Long is wrestling SO well right now, though he was going to lose in the Big 10 finals if Graff hadn’t made that mental mistake (fleeing the mat) and sending the match into OT. Tony loses to Long in the quarters. Makes some noise in the wrestlebacks and ends up 4th. Not a bad freshman campaign for Ramos.
On the topside of the bracket, Oliver is the clear favorite. There’s a couple of guys to keep your eye on in the top half:
#5 Ruggirello (Hofstra) – a pinner (12 on the year) who’s looking to finally AA (3-time NQ, R12 in 2008 and 2009). 3 losses on the year (Fleckenstein – 1st match of season, #4 Graff (2-0), #10 Peterkin (avenged).
#8 Grey (Cornell) – 11-0 on the season. Best win is over #10 Peterkin. 3-time NQ (6th in 2008, R12 in 2009 and 2010). Dangerous at the #8 spot but facing #9 Carter.
#9 Carter (Va Tech) – #23 Intermat in last year’s class, only losses are to #1 Oliver, #2 Hochstrasser, #4 Graff (twice) and #7 Futrell.
Ruggirello beats Graff to go to the semis before losing to Oliver. On the bottom half, it’s a Long-Hochstrasser matchup in the semis. Hochstrasser is the better mat wrestler, while Long is better from the neutral position. I like Long to win this, setting up a Long-Oliver finals match. Oliver is at another level than everyone else in this weight class.
#1 Oliver (OSU) over #3 Long (PSU)
141
Returning All-Americans - #1 Kellen Russell, Michigan (7th 2009); #2 Michael Thorn, Minnesota (7th 2010); #3 Borislav Novachkov, Cal Poly (7th 133 2010); #4 James Kennedy, Illinois (4th 133 2008, 5th 133 2009); #5 Montell Marion, Iowa (2nd 2010); #7 Tyler Nauman, Pittsburgh (5th 2010); #8 Zach Bailey, Oklahoma (4th 2010); US Chris Drouin, Iowa State (6th 2009 for Arizona State); US Cody Cleveland, UT-Chattanooga (8th 2008); US Christopher Diaz, Virginia Tech (8th 2010).
Good Lord is this weight STACKED. 10 returning AAs (7 on Marion’s side of the bracket) and a talented freshman in #6 Alton . Whoever makes it out of this bracket (in particular the top half) will have definitely earned it. Montell’s loss in the Big 10 semis to Thorn couldn’t have been more costly. Win and he’s essentially guaranteed at worst the 3 seed at the NCAAs. Instead he gives up a 5-1 lead (5-2 since he didn’t erase RT) and Thorn wins in SV. Then he loses to a very tough Kennedy in the 3rd place match and ends up 4th. I really don’t like how Montell matches up with Kennedy, a very intelligent wrestler who can (and did at Big 10s) capitalize on any mistakes Montell makes. In order to win their potential Quarters match, Montell needs to be 100% focused and on top of his game. Unfortunately, I don’t see it happening and Kennedy moves on to the semis and then upsets Russell to go to the final. Marion goes into the wrestlebacks where he places a disappointing 6th.
On the bottom half of the bracket I like Novachkov getting past Alton in one quarterfinal and then Thorn beating Nauman (Pitt) in the other quarter. Novachkov’s defense is REALLY good (in 3 matches against Oliver in 2009-2010 he didn’t give up a TD) and I see him fending off Alton, who’s had trouble scoring on the top tier wrestlers at this weight. Thorn shouldn’t have much of a problem with Nauman, though Nauman is capable of the upset; he was the #10 seed last year and upset last year’s #2 seed (Parks of Okie St.) on his way to finishing 5th. In 2009 as an unseeded wrestler, he gave Jaggers (2009 champ at 141) his closest match, losing in SV. Thorn and Novachkov will have a relatively low scoring match, but the Gopher will come out on top.
#2 Thorn (MN) over #4 Kennedy (ILL)
149
Returning All-Americans - #1 Darrion Caldwell, NC State (1st 2009, 5th 2008); #2 Frank Molinaro, Penn State (8th at 141 2009, 5th at 149 2010); #3 Kevin LeValley, Bucknell (7th 2010); #4 Kyle Dake, Cornell (1st 141 2010); US Torsten Gillespie, Edinboro (6th 2010); US Justin Gaethje, Northern Colorado (7th at 157).
I’ve already talked about how screwed up the seeding was at this weight. Another instance of the seeding committee pushing their agenda rather than trying to put together a fair bracket. The top side of the bracket is ridiculous with Caldwell, Parks, and Dake as the top seeds plus strong lower seeds (#9 Vinson has a win over Dake) and even good unseeded guys (Grajales, Gaethje (’10 AA) and Loupochanski). I think Dake takes out Parks to go to the semis against Caldwell. I have no idea what kind of shape Caldwell’s going to be in this weekend. He really gassed at ACCs and has only wrestled 14 matches since beating Metcalf in 2009 (though one of those wins was over Parks). I think Dake wins a close one.
On the other side of the bracket, the top 2 seeds (Molinaro and LeValley) should have no problem getting to the quarters. Getting to the semis may be another story. Provided the seeds hold, Molinaro has a tough match against #7 Mason (really good season, 22-3 with wins over Levalley, Molinaro (1-1 record vs. Molinaro); suffered losses in back-to-back duals to #8 Sanjaa and US Napoli – avenged the Sanjaa loss at EIWAs and finished 3rd (only loss was 11-1 to Dake)). I think Molinaro gets through to the semis, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Mason pull off the upset. In the other quarter, I’ve got #3 LeValley facing #6 Chamberlain who hasn’t wrestled the highest quality schedule. While Chamberlain’s only loss was to #4 Parks in SV, his best win is over #10 Kinser. I like Chamberlain to upset LeValley before knocking off Molinaro in the semis. Dake repeats.
#4 Dake (Cornell) over #6 Chamberlain (BSU)
157
Returning All-Americans - #1 Adam Hall, Boise State (3rd 2010); #2 Steve Fittery, American (5th 2010); #4 Bubba Jenkins, Arizona State (2nd at 149 in 2008 for Penn State); #7 Bryce Saddoris, Navy (6th at 149 2009).
Hate this draw. DSJ has been lights out since the PSU dual, even giving Taylor some sort of competition (Taylor now has been held to a decision twice). DSJ should make it to the quarters against Taylor, but watch out for #11 Peppelman. He’s a really good mat wrestler and could give DSJ fits from the top position. DSJ needs to focus on getting TDs here and putting himself in a position to go neutral when its his choice. DSJ wins, but then gets knocked off by Taylor. Taylor vs. Fittery should be an awesome semi. Both guys aren’t afraid to open it up and we should see a lot of points. No one’s really been on the attack against Taylor so far this season. Jackson Morse (ILL) gave a pretty good effort in the PSU-ILL dual (taking Taylor down twice in the 1st period off leg attacks) before getting TF’ed. Other than that, it’s been Taylor doing most of the offense. I think Taylor cashes in on Fittery’s aggressiveness and heads to the finals.
I see #1 Hall having a tough match against #8 Welch in the quarters. Welch has the pedigree and the ability to win this match. Welch is a really good scrambler, but I think Hall’s experience gives him the edge here. In the other quarter, Bubba will knock out the Donger. Hall and Bubba have faced off 3 times this year: Bubba won by MD in the all star classic (exhibition, match isn’t included in final records), but Hall won the last 2 matches (both in TBs). Though Bubba-Taylor (former teammates) would be the best story, I think Hall wins another one vs. Bubba to go to the final. It will be an entertaining final; these 2 know each other well. Taylor wins and completes an undefeated freshman campaign. DSJ finishes 5th.
#3 Taylor (PSU) over #1 Hall (BSU)
165
Returning All-Americans - #1 Jordan Burroughs, Nebraska (1st at 157 in 2009, 3rd at 149 in 2008); #2 Andrew Howe, Wisconsin (2nd 2009, 1st 2010); #3 Tyler Caldwell, Oklahoma (5th 2010); US Justin Lister, Binghamton (4th at 157).
I absolutely love Janssen’s draw. Probably the best he could hope for. I really like his chances in a 2nd round match vs. Bailey (a guy who’s WAY overseeded). He’s been really close to beating Bailey in the past; provided he stays out of upper body holds (Bailey’s specialty) he should come out on top. He’d meet Caldwell in the quarters. Caldwell’s had a pretty good season, but he’s not an elite 165 pounder. He started off the season at 174, going 13-2 (losses to #3 Lewnes and #4 Covington). Since dropping back down to 165, he’s gone 15-3 (losses to Spangler (ISU) and 2 losses to Burroughs). Caldwell is really good on the mat, whether it’s from the top position or in scrambles. In order to have a chance here Janssen has got to be the aggressor and get off clean shots. I think it will be close, but I have Caldwell knocking off Janssen and going on to face Howe in the semis. Howe vs. Caldwell is really close. I’m still not sure how healthy Howe is – he was missing his usual explosiveness at Big 10s. I’ll give it to Howe, but Caldwell is in a great position to score the upset.
On the top half, Burroughs shouldn’t have any trouble getting past Sponseller to go to the finals. Burroughs again proves to be too much for Howe and wins by 3-4 points. Janssen (who’s wrestling REALLY well at the right time) finishes 8th.
#1 Burroughs (Nebraska) over #2 Howe (Wisconsin)
174
Returning All-Americans - #1 Jonathan Reader, Iowa State (4th at 165 in 2009, 7th at 165 in 2008); #3 Mack Lewnes, Cornell (4th at 165 2008, 2nd at 174 2010); #5 Christopher Henrich, Virginia (7th 2009, 3rd 2010); #6 Ben Bennett, Central Michigan (6th 2010); #7 Nick Amuchastegui, Stanford (4th 2010); US Scott Giffin, Pennslyvania (7th 2010).
I feel pretty good about Ethen going into NCAAs. He really came on strong in the Big 10s, getting revenge on Manuel (twice) and Glasser. He had Ruth on the ropes before losing 3-2, in on Ruth’s legs as time expired in the semis. Ethen’s been Iowa’s most consistent wrestler in tournaments so far this year – Seeded 9th and finishing 5th at Midlands, Seeded 5th and finishing 3rd at Big 10s. He has a good chance of continuing that streak in Philly. His 2nd round match is going to be tough; Giffin is a 3-time NQ and finished 7th at 2010 NCAAs, Letts gave Ruth his only loss on the season and is an absolute hammer on top. However, Ethen did knock off Letts at Midlands so he’s going to have some confidence if they do end up facing off. I’ve got Ethen making it to the quarters with another match with Reader. I still don’t see any scenario where Ethen beats Reader. Reader wins a really close semis match against #4 Covington to go to the final.
On the bottom side of the bracket I’ve got #3 Lewnes, #6 Bennett, #7 Amuchastegui and #2 Ruth in the quarters. Lewnes shouldn’t have much of a problem with Bennett while Ruth is going to have a tough time with Amuchastegui. Amuchastegui’s only losses on the year are to #4 Covington (twice) and to #11 Meys (who also has a win against). Amuchastegui was at 165 last year and had a pretty successful NCAA run, knocking off Marable (3 seed), Asper (2011 4th seed), Sponseller (5 seed), Morningstar (7 seed), and Caldwell (2011 3 seed) on his way to a 4th place finish. I think Amuchastegui upsets Ruth before losing to Lewnes in the semis. Reader and Lewnes have met twice before, with Reader winning 7-6 this year and Lewnes winning 6-5 back in the 2008-2009 season. Reader has been lights out this year, but despite my better judgement, something tells me Lewnes is really going to thrive as the underdog. The last two NCAAs, Lewnes was seeded 1st (finishing 2nd to Borschel in 2010 and going 0-2 BBQ in 2009). I think he turns the tables on Reader in the NCAA final to close out his college career. Ethen finishes 7th.
#3 Lewnes (Cornell) over #1 Reader (ISU)
184
Returning All-Americans - #5 Joe LeBlanc, Wyoming (5th 2009, 4th 2010); #9 Quentin Wright, Penn State (6th at 174 in 2009); #11 Kirk Smith, Boise State (8th 2008, 2nd 2010);
Gambrall has been all over the board this season. Unlike most of his teammates, he was most consistent prior to Midlands with a high ranking of #4 and wins over #6 Loder (UNI) and US McCroskey (UTC). He won his first 3 matches at Midlands against no names (that happens when you’re the #1 seed like he was at that tournament) before the wheels came off. He suffered back-to-back-to-back losses to #10 Ihnen, US Larson, and #6 Loder. His next match of consequence was against #7 Perry where he never mounted an offensive attack and was ridden like a rented mule in a 2-0 loss. Gambrall wrestled pretty well during the Big 10 portion of the season, going 7-0 (including a win over #9 Wright) before losing to #8 Steinhaus 5-4 (a match he led 3-0 to start the 3rd). It’s really tough to know where Gambrall’s mindset is right now. His losses in the Big 10 tournament were to #8 Steinhaus (2 seed at Big 10s) and #4 Rutt (1 seed at Big 10s). I don’t know if his problem is so much conditioning as it is mental. He’s got the talent to hang with the big dogs (he’s beaten #10 Ihnen, #6 Loder, #4 Rutt, and #9 and #11 at 197 in Yohn and Ward), but I’m not sure if he believes it. Provided he wins his pigtail, he faces Trotman (Appalachian St.) – a guy who beat #8 Steinhaus earlier in the year. I’ll give Grant the win here and then he faces the winner of #5 Leblanc and Kissel. LeBlanc’s (placed 5th and 4th in 2009 and 2010 NCAAs) only losses on the year are to #2 Hamlin and #6 Loder, who are both on the other side of this bracket. LeBlanc beats Gambrall and then knocks off both Rutt and Honeycutt to go to the final.
On the bottom half of the bracket, I’ve got Bosak/Loder and Perry/Hamlin in the quarters. Between the freshman phenoms (Loder and Perry), I think one of them pulls the upset to get to the semis. I’ll go with Loder, who’s really come on strong since the New Year going 15-1 (Ws over #5 LeBlanc, #7 Perry, and #10 Ihnen and L to #5 LeBlanc). Hamlin beats Loder to go to the final. Gambrall finishes in the R12.
#5 LeBlanc (Wyoming) over #2 Hamlin (Lehigh)
197
Returning All-Americans - #1 Cam Simaz, Cornell (8th 2009, 3rd 2010); #2 Clayton Foster, Oklahoma State (6th at 184 in 2010); #3 Trevor Brandvold, Wisconsin (6th in 2010); #4 Dustin Kilgore, Kent State (7th at 184 in 2010); #9 Sonny Yohn, Minnesota (8th in 2010).
Of all the top 197 pounders for Luke to be matched up with in potential quarterfinal, #4 Kilgore and #3 Brandvold were the two I was most worried about. Kilgore is an absolute horse and is very technically sound. He beat Keddy 9-5 in the 184 pound 7th place match last year. To put up 9 points on Keddy is really impressive. This year, his only 2 losses are to #6 Burak (Penn) – a guy on the other side of the bracket – and Byers (future Hawkeye!). He gave #1 Simaz his only loss on the year. I don’t see Luke getting past Kilgore in the quarters and have Kilgore knocking off Simaz in the semis to go to the final.
On the other side, I see #3 Brandvold/#11 Ward and #2 Foster/#7 Thomusseit in the quarters. Ward is one of the best athletes at this weight and I think he puts together a nice little run at NCAAs. I think that ends against Brandvold who goes on to face Foster in the semis. Brandvold/Foster is a tough one to pick. I think Brandvold proves to be too strong for the Cowboy and he heads to the finals to face Kilgore. Uncle Luke finishes 5th.
#3 Brandvold (Wisconsin) over #4 Kilgore (Kent St.)
HWT
Returning All-Americans - #1 Zachery Rey, Lehigh (3rd 2010); #2 Jarod Trice, Central Michigan (8th 2010).
In my opinion, Rasing is the most improved Hawkeye wrestler on the season. He’s gone from a guy who was losing to backups (McClure of MSU) and unseeded wrestlers (Brantley of UNI and Myers of MD) to the Big 10 champ. He’s really wrestling with a lot of confidence right now and if he could turn on the switch and start his offensive attack in the 1st period rather than waiting until the 3rd, it would only benefit him. Rasing should win his first round match against the oft-injured Simonson of ISU (Rasing won the dual, 2-0) setting up a 2nd round match with #10 Fernandez. Fernandez scares me, he owns a win over #3 Flores and his 5 losses were to #5 Bradley (twice), #11 Lane (1-1 record vs. Lane), and then to US Rosholt and an early season loss to McCorkle (Clarion). I think Blake wins, but Fernandez definitely has the offense to get the victory. Provided Blake makes it to the quarters, I really like his matchup with #2 Trice. Trice overcomes his height disadvantage (I think he’s under 6’0”) with strength and quickness. I think Rasing gets by Trice and faces #3 Flores in the semis. Flores wins the semi and Rasing goes down to the consolations.
On the top side, It’s going to be Rey/Wade and Bradley/Russo. Rey and Bradley will go on to wrestle in the semis. This is a really tough match to predict. Rey is really benefitting from an offseason coaching change (Mocco was added to the Lehigh staff), but just suffered his first loss of the season in the EIWA finals to #3 Flores. Since a rough time at the NE Duals in November (losing to #1 Rey, #3 Flores, #4 Russo on the same day), Bradley has gone undefeated. In my opinion, Bradley is the 2nd best HWT in the country and would pick him to make the finals if he was facing anyone other than Rey. Rey over Bradley to go to the finals. Rey avenges the EIWA final loss and beats Flores on Saturday night. Rasing finishes 5th.
#1 Rey (Lehigh) over #3 Flores (American)
So in total, I’ve got the Hawks with 8 AAs (1 Champ). If it works out this way, they’ve got a GREAT shot at the team title. Maybe some pie-in-the-sky thinking, but I think this team will thrive as the underdogs. We saw that at Big 10s.
McD – 1st
Ramos – 4th
Marion – 6th
St. John – 5th
Janssen – 8th
Ethen – 7th
Gambrall – R12
Luke – 5th
Rasing – 5th
125
Returning All-Americans – #1 Anthony Robles, Arizona State (4th 2009, 7th 2010); #2 Matt McDonough, Iowa (1st 2010); #4 James Nicholson, Old Dominion (8th 2008); #5 Zachary Sanders, Minnesota (6th 2009, 5th 2010).
So McD is going to have to go through Precin for the fourth time this year in order to get into the Finals. Ugh. I don’t think Precin or McD are going to have much of a challenge getting to the semis. They’ll more than likely have another ridiculously close match. As I’ve said, McD has yet to get a TD via his own leg attack on Precin. I’m really worried about this rematch, but hopefully McD is getting in Precin’s head. McD has to win this in regulation. Precin’s mat wrestling is superior and he’ll come out as the victor if this goes to tiebreakers. I’ll say McD over Precin, but I’m not overly confident in this.
The NCAA rejoices as Robles get to the finals in a walk. An interesting note: Robles possible 2nd round opponent (Keith) gave him his closest match of the year, a 7-4 decision.
They key for McD to beat Robles is getting that 1st takedown. McD’s best offense is the low single. In order to takedown Robles, he’s going to need to keep his distance and work to score from the front headlock position. Easier said than done. When Robles is on top (Robles will choose top, McD will most likely choose neutral), McD has to get out quick and not let him get to his wrist. Robles is too strong and if given the opportunity he’ll control the wrist and tilt you like crazy.
#2 McDonough (Iowa) over #1 Robles (ASU)
133
Returning All-Americans - #1 Jordan Oliver, Oklahoma State (4th 2010); #2 Andrew Hochstrasser, Boise State (4th 2009); #3 Andrew Long, Penn State (2nd at 125 2010 for Iowa State); #4 Tyler Graff, Wisconsin (5th 2010); #8 Mike Grey, Cornell (6th 2008); #11 Scotti Sentes, Central Michigan (7th at 125 2009).
Tony must be on his game right away. His opponent in the pigtail is no slouch (Ranked #11 in Intermat’s final regular season poll, the #20 overall recruit in the 2010 class) who has a couple of wins over the 10 seed (Peterkin of Penn). However, I really liked how Tony bounced back after losing the heartbreaker to Graff at Big 10s. He came on strong in the wrestlebacks and dominated #7 Futrell (a guy who’d beaten Tony at Midlands) from beginning to end. If he gets by Cagnina and Keller, he should face #11 Sentes in the 2nd round. Sentes is REALLY long and will have a noticeable size advantage against Tony. To give you an idea of his background, he beat Tyler Clark at Midlands (2-1) this year on the way to a 3rd place finish. He lost to Nate Moore (2-1) at the 2009 Midlands. He’s a 3-time NQ, finishing 7th as a freshman. I like Tony to win this matchup and moving onto the quarters. Long is wrestling SO well right now, though he was going to lose in the Big 10 finals if Graff hadn’t made that mental mistake (fleeing the mat) and sending the match into OT. Tony loses to Long in the quarters. Makes some noise in the wrestlebacks and ends up 4th. Not a bad freshman campaign for Ramos.
On the topside of the bracket, Oliver is the clear favorite. There’s a couple of guys to keep your eye on in the top half:
#5 Ruggirello (Hofstra) – a pinner (12 on the year) who’s looking to finally AA (3-time NQ, R12 in 2008 and 2009). 3 losses on the year (Fleckenstein – 1st match of season, #4 Graff (2-0), #10 Peterkin (avenged).
#8 Grey (Cornell) – 11-0 on the season. Best win is over #10 Peterkin. 3-time NQ (6th in 2008, R12 in 2009 and 2010). Dangerous at the #8 spot but facing #9 Carter.
#9 Carter (Va Tech) – #23 Intermat in last year’s class, only losses are to #1 Oliver, #2 Hochstrasser, #4 Graff (twice) and #7 Futrell.
Ruggirello beats Graff to go to the semis before losing to Oliver. On the bottom half, it’s a Long-Hochstrasser matchup in the semis. Hochstrasser is the better mat wrestler, while Long is better from the neutral position. I like Long to win this, setting up a Long-Oliver finals match. Oliver is at another level than everyone else in this weight class.
#1 Oliver (OSU) over #3 Long (PSU)
141
Returning All-Americans - #1 Kellen Russell, Michigan (7th 2009); #2 Michael Thorn, Minnesota (7th 2010); #3 Borislav Novachkov, Cal Poly (7th 133 2010); #4 James Kennedy, Illinois (4th 133 2008, 5th 133 2009); #5 Montell Marion, Iowa (2nd 2010); #7 Tyler Nauman, Pittsburgh (5th 2010); #8 Zach Bailey, Oklahoma (4th 2010); US Chris Drouin, Iowa State (6th 2009 for Arizona State); US Cody Cleveland, UT-Chattanooga (8th 2008); US Christopher Diaz, Virginia Tech (8th 2010).
Good Lord is this weight STACKED. 10 returning AAs (7 on Marion’s side of the bracket) and a talented freshman in #6 Alton . Whoever makes it out of this bracket (in particular the top half) will have definitely earned it. Montell’s loss in the Big 10 semis to Thorn couldn’t have been more costly. Win and he’s essentially guaranteed at worst the 3 seed at the NCAAs. Instead he gives up a 5-1 lead (5-2 since he didn’t erase RT) and Thorn wins in SV. Then he loses to a very tough Kennedy in the 3rd place match and ends up 4th. I really don’t like how Montell matches up with Kennedy, a very intelligent wrestler who can (and did at Big 10s) capitalize on any mistakes Montell makes. In order to win their potential Quarters match, Montell needs to be 100% focused and on top of his game. Unfortunately, I don’t see it happening and Kennedy moves on to the semis and then upsets Russell to go to the final. Marion goes into the wrestlebacks where he places a disappointing 6th.
On the bottom half of the bracket I like Novachkov getting past Alton in one quarterfinal and then Thorn beating Nauman (Pitt) in the other quarter. Novachkov’s defense is REALLY good (in 3 matches against Oliver in 2009-2010 he didn’t give up a TD) and I see him fending off Alton, who’s had trouble scoring on the top tier wrestlers at this weight. Thorn shouldn’t have much of a problem with Nauman, though Nauman is capable of the upset; he was the #10 seed last year and upset last year’s #2 seed (Parks of Okie St.) on his way to finishing 5th. In 2009 as an unseeded wrestler, he gave Jaggers (2009 champ at 141) his closest match, losing in SV. Thorn and Novachkov will have a relatively low scoring match, but the Gopher will come out on top.
#2 Thorn (MN) over #4 Kennedy (ILL)
149
Returning All-Americans - #1 Darrion Caldwell, NC State (1st 2009, 5th 2008); #2 Frank Molinaro, Penn State (8th at 141 2009, 5th at 149 2010); #3 Kevin LeValley, Bucknell (7th 2010); #4 Kyle Dake, Cornell (1st 141 2010); US Torsten Gillespie, Edinboro (6th 2010); US Justin Gaethje, Northern Colorado (7th at 157).
I’ve already talked about how screwed up the seeding was at this weight. Another instance of the seeding committee pushing their agenda rather than trying to put together a fair bracket. The top side of the bracket is ridiculous with Caldwell, Parks, and Dake as the top seeds plus strong lower seeds (#9 Vinson has a win over Dake) and even good unseeded guys (Grajales, Gaethje (’10 AA) and Loupochanski). I think Dake takes out Parks to go to the semis against Caldwell. I have no idea what kind of shape Caldwell’s going to be in this weekend. He really gassed at ACCs and has only wrestled 14 matches since beating Metcalf in 2009 (though one of those wins was over Parks). I think Dake wins a close one.
On the other side of the bracket, the top 2 seeds (Molinaro and LeValley) should have no problem getting to the quarters. Getting to the semis may be another story. Provided the seeds hold, Molinaro has a tough match against #7 Mason (really good season, 22-3 with wins over Levalley, Molinaro (1-1 record vs. Molinaro); suffered losses in back-to-back duals to #8 Sanjaa and US Napoli – avenged the Sanjaa loss at EIWAs and finished 3rd (only loss was 11-1 to Dake)). I think Molinaro gets through to the semis, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Mason pull off the upset. In the other quarter, I’ve got #3 LeValley facing #6 Chamberlain who hasn’t wrestled the highest quality schedule. While Chamberlain’s only loss was to #4 Parks in SV, his best win is over #10 Kinser. I like Chamberlain to upset LeValley before knocking off Molinaro in the semis. Dake repeats.
#4 Dake (Cornell) over #6 Chamberlain (BSU)
157
Returning All-Americans - #1 Adam Hall, Boise State (3rd 2010); #2 Steve Fittery, American (5th 2010); #4 Bubba Jenkins, Arizona State (2nd at 149 in 2008 for Penn State); #7 Bryce Saddoris, Navy (6th at 149 2009).
Hate this draw. DSJ has been lights out since the PSU dual, even giving Taylor some sort of competition (Taylor now has been held to a decision twice). DSJ should make it to the quarters against Taylor, but watch out for #11 Peppelman. He’s a really good mat wrestler and could give DSJ fits from the top position. DSJ needs to focus on getting TDs here and putting himself in a position to go neutral when its his choice. DSJ wins, but then gets knocked off by Taylor. Taylor vs. Fittery should be an awesome semi. Both guys aren’t afraid to open it up and we should see a lot of points. No one’s really been on the attack against Taylor so far this season. Jackson Morse (ILL) gave a pretty good effort in the PSU-ILL dual (taking Taylor down twice in the 1st period off leg attacks) before getting TF’ed. Other than that, it’s been Taylor doing most of the offense. I think Taylor cashes in on Fittery’s aggressiveness and heads to the finals.
I see #1 Hall having a tough match against #8 Welch in the quarters. Welch has the pedigree and the ability to win this match. Welch is a really good scrambler, but I think Hall’s experience gives him the edge here. In the other quarter, Bubba will knock out the Donger. Hall and Bubba have faced off 3 times this year: Bubba won by MD in the all star classic (exhibition, match isn’t included in final records), but Hall won the last 2 matches (both in TBs). Though Bubba-Taylor (former teammates) would be the best story, I think Hall wins another one vs. Bubba to go to the final. It will be an entertaining final; these 2 know each other well. Taylor wins and completes an undefeated freshman campaign. DSJ finishes 5th.
#3 Taylor (PSU) over #1 Hall (BSU)
165
Returning All-Americans - #1 Jordan Burroughs, Nebraska (1st at 157 in 2009, 3rd at 149 in 2008); #2 Andrew Howe, Wisconsin (2nd 2009, 1st 2010); #3 Tyler Caldwell, Oklahoma (5th 2010); US Justin Lister, Binghamton (4th at 157).
I absolutely love Janssen’s draw. Probably the best he could hope for. I really like his chances in a 2nd round match vs. Bailey (a guy who’s WAY overseeded). He’s been really close to beating Bailey in the past; provided he stays out of upper body holds (Bailey’s specialty) he should come out on top. He’d meet Caldwell in the quarters. Caldwell’s had a pretty good season, but he’s not an elite 165 pounder. He started off the season at 174, going 13-2 (losses to #3 Lewnes and #4 Covington). Since dropping back down to 165, he’s gone 15-3 (losses to Spangler (ISU) and 2 losses to Burroughs). Caldwell is really good on the mat, whether it’s from the top position or in scrambles. In order to have a chance here Janssen has got to be the aggressor and get off clean shots. I think it will be close, but I have Caldwell knocking off Janssen and going on to face Howe in the semis. Howe vs. Caldwell is really close. I’m still not sure how healthy Howe is – he was missing his usual explosiveness at Big 10s. I’ll give it to Howe, but Caldwell is in a great position to score the upset.
On the top half, Burroughs shouldn’t have any trouble getting past Sponseller to go to the finals. Burroughs again proves to be too much for Howe and wins by 3-4 points. Janssen (who’s wrestling REALLY well at the right time) finishes 8th.
#1 Burroughs (Nebraska) over #2 Howe (Wisconsin)
174
Returning All-Americans - #1 Jonathan Reader, Iowa State (4th at 165 in 2009, 7th at 165 in 2008); #3 Mack Lewnes, Cornell (4th at 165 2008, 2nd at 174 2010); #5 Christopher Henrich, Virginia (7th 2009, 3rd 2010); #6 Ben Bennett, Central Michigan (6th 2010); #7 Nick Amuchastegui, Stanford (4th 2010); US Scott Giffin, Pennslyvania (7th 2010).
I feel pretty good about Ethen going into NCAAs. He really came on strong in the Big 10s, getting revenge on Manuel (twice) and Glasser. He had Ruth on the ropes before losing 3-2, in on Ruth’s legs as time expired in the semis. Ethen’s been Iowa’s most consistent wrestler in tournaments so far this year – Seeded 9th and finishing 5th at Midlands, Seeded 5th and finishing 3rd at Big 10s. He has a good chance of continuing that streak in Philly. His 2nd round match is going to be tough; Giffin is a 3-time NQ and finished 7th at 2010 NCAAs, Letts gave Ruth his only loss on the season and is an absolute hammer on top. However, Ethen did knock off Letts at Midlands so he’s going to have some confidence if they do end up facing off. I’ve got Ethen making it to the quarters with another match with Reader. I still don’t see any scenario where Ethen beats Reader. Reader wins a really close semis match against #4 Covington to go to the final.
On the bottom side of the bracket I’ve got #3 Lewnes, #6 Bennett, #7 Amuchastegui and #2 Ruth in the quarters. Lewnes shouldn’t have much of a problem with Bennett while Ruth is going to have a tough time with Amuchastegui. Amuchastegui’s only losses on the year are to #4 Covington (twice) and to #11 Meys (who also has a win against). Amuchastegui was at 165 last year and had a pretty successful NCAA run, knocking off Marable (3 seed), Asper (2011 4th seed), Sponseller (5 seed), Morningstar (7 seed), and Caldwell (2011 3 seed) on his way to a 4th place finish. I think Amuchastegui upsets Ruth before losing to Lewnes in the semis. Reader and Lewnes have met twice before, with Reader winning 7-6 this year and Lewnes winning 6-5 back in the 2008-2009 season. Reader has been lights out this year, but despite my better judgement, something tells me Lewnes is really going to thrive as the underdog. The last two NCAAs, Lewnes was seeded 1st (finishing 2nd to Borschel in 2010 and going 0-2 BBQ in 2009). I think he turns the tables on Reader in the NCAA final to close out his college career. Ethen finishes 7th.
#3 Lewnes (Cornell) over #1 Reader (ISU)
184
Returning All-Americans - #5 Joe LeBlanc, Wyoming (5th 2009, 4th 2010); #9 Quentin Wright, Penn State (6th at 174 in 2009); #11 Kirk Smith, Boise State (8th 2008, 2nd 2010);
Gambrall has been all over the board this season. Unlike most of his teammates, he was most consistent prior to Midlands with a high ranking of #4 and wins over #6 Loder (UNI) and US McCroskey (UTC). He won his first 3 matches at Midlands against no names (that happens when you’re the #1 seed like he was at that tournament) before the wheels came off. He suffered back-to-back-to-back losses to #10 Ihnen, US Larson, and #6 Loder. His next match of consequence was against #7 Perry where he never mounted an offensive attack and was ridden like a rented mule in a 2-0 loss. Gambrall wrestled pretty well during the Big 10 portion of the season, going 7-0 (including a win over #9 Wright) before losing to #8 Steinhaus 5-4 (a match he led 3-0 to start the 3rd). It’s really tough to know where Gambrall’s mindset is right now. His losses in the Big 10 tournament were to #8 Steinhaus (2 seed at Big 10s) and #4 Rutt (1 seed at Big 10s). I don’t know if his problem is so much conditioning as it is mental. He’s got the talent to hang with the big dogs (he’s beaten #10 Ihnen, #6 Loder, #4 Rutt, and #9 and #11 at 197 in Yohn and Ward), but I’m not sure if he believes it. Provided he wins his pigtail, he faces Trotman (Appalachian St.) – a guy who beat #8 Steinhaus earlier in the year. I’ll give Grant the win here and then he faces the winner of #5 Leblanc and Kissel. LeBlanc’s (placed 5th and 4th in 2009 and 2010 NCAAs) only losses on the year are to #2 Hamlin and #6 Loder, who are both on the other side of this bracket. LeBlanc beats Gambrall and then knocks off both Rutt and Honeycutt to go to the final.
On the bottom half of the bracket, I’ve got Bosak/Loder and Perry/Hamlin in the quarters. Between the freshman phenoms (Loder and Perry), I think one of them pulls the upset to get to the semis. I’ll go with Loder, who’s really come on strong since the New Year going 15-1 (Ws over #5 LeBlanc, #7 Perry, and #10 Ihnen and L to #5 LeBlanc). Hamlin beats Loder to go to the final. Gambrall finishes in the R12.
#5 LeBlanc (Wyoming) over #2 Hamlin (Lehigh)
197
Returning All-Americans - #1 Cam Simaz, Cornell (8th 2009, 3rd 2010); #2 Clayton Foster, Oklahoma State (6th at 184 in 2010); #3 Trevor Brandvold, Wisconsin (6th in 2010); #4 Dustin Kilgore, Kent State (7th at 184 in 2010); #9 Sonny Yohn, Minnesota (8th in 2010).
Of all the top 197 pounders for Luke to be matched up with in potential quarterfinal, #4 Kilgore and #3 Brandvold were the two I was most worried about. Kilgore is an absolute horse and is very technically sound. He beat Keddy 9-5 in the 184 pound 7th place match last year. To put up 9 points on Keddy is really impressive. This year, his only 2 losses are to #6 Burak (Penn) – a guy on the other side of the bracket – and Byers (future Hawkeye!). He gave #1 Simaz his only loss on the year. I don’t see Luke getting past Kilgore in the quarters and have Kilgore knocking off Simaz in the semis to go to the final.
On the other side, I see #3 Brandvold/#11 Ward and #2 Foster/#7 Thomusseit in the quarters. Ward is one of the best athletes at this weight and I think he puts together a nice little run at NCAAs. I think that ends against Brandvold who goes on to face Foster in the semis. Brandvold/Foster is a tough one to pick. I think Brandvold proves to be too strong for the Cowboy and he heads to the finals to face Kilgore. Uncle Luke finishes 5th.
#3 Brandvold (Wisconsin) over #4 Kilgore (Kent St.)
HWT
Returning All-Americans - #1 Zachery Rey, Lehigh (3rd 2010); #2 Jarod Trice, Central Michigan (8th 2010).
In my opinion, Rasing is the most improved Hawkeye wrestler on the season. He’s gone from a guy who was losing to backups (McClure of MSU) and unseeded wrestlers (Brantley of UNI and Myers of MD) to the Big 10 champ. He’s really wrestling with a lot of confidence right now and if he could turn on the switch and start his offensive attack in the 1st period rather than waiting until the 3rd, it would only benefit him. Rasing should win his first round match against the oft-injured Simonson of ISU (Rasing won the dual, 2-0) setting up a 2nd round match with #10 Fernandez. Fernandez scares me, he owns a win over #3 Flores and his 5 losses were to #5 Bradley (twice), #11 Lane (1-1 record vs. Lane), and then to US Rosholt and an early season loss to McCorkle (Clarion). I think Blake wins, but Fernandez definitely has the offense to get the victory. Provided Blake makes it to the quarters, I really like his matchup with #2 Trice. Trice overcomes his height disadvantage (I think he’s under 6’0”) with strength and quickness. I think Rasing gets by Trice and faces #3 Flores in the semis. Flores wins the semi and Rasing goes down to the consolations.
On the top side, It’s going to be Rey/Wade and Bradley/Russo. Rey and Bradley will go on to wrestle in the semis. This is a really tough match to predict. Rey is really benefitting from an offseason coaching change (Mocco was added to the Lehigh staff), but just suffered his first loss of the season in the EIWA finals to #3 Flores. Since a rough time at the NE Duals in November (losing to #1 Rey, #3 Flores, #4 Russo on the same day), Bradley has gone undefeated. In my opinion, Bradley is the 2nd best HWT in the country and would pick him to make the finals if he was facing anyone other than Rey. Rey over Bradley to go to the finals. Rey avenges the EIWA final loss and beats Flores on Saturday night. Rasing finishes 5th.
#1 Rey (Lehigh) over #3 Flores (American)
So in total, I’ve got the Hawks with 8 AAs (1 Champ). If it works out this way, they’ve got a GREAT shot at the team title. Maybe some pie-in-the-sky thinking, but I think this team will thrive as the underdogs. We saw that at Big 10s.
McD – 1st
Ramos – 4th
Marion – 6th
St. John – 5th
Janssen – 8th
Ethen – 7th
Gambrall – R12
Luke – 5th
Rasing – 5th
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What I like about the forum, is that everyone is entitled to express what they think. Well, twade70, when it comes to your evaluation of Mcdonough and Precin, where have you been? Matt McDonough; 60-2 overall. Returning National Champion. One of the best conditioned wrestlers around. Has beaten Precin 2 out of 3 matches on Precins mat. You say, McD has to win in regulation because Precins mat wrestling is evidently more superior than McDonough. Not only that, but if it goes to the tiebreaker, Precin will win. If Precins mat wrestling is so superior, then why did he let Mcdonough put him on his back for a fall? In the last match they had, In a scramble situation, Mcdonough got the takedown. And, if you have watched the 3 matches they have wrestled, you'll notice that Precin doesn't show much offense but shows alot of defense. Like i said, everyone is entitled to their opinion. What I don't understand is, your picking Mcdonough to win.
