Minnesota's Win Over Indiana Complicates Iowa's Big Ten Tourney Seed?

JonDMiller said:
At this point, my preseason prediction of 20-11 & 9-9 with a return trip to the NIT seems to still be on target.
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Ooo my turn, my turn...

Iowa MBB: VanLaere?s 2012-13 Season Preview & Prediction « Hawkeye NationHawkeye Nation

2012-2013 SCHEDULE

11/09 vs. Texas-Pan American IOWA CITY WIN
11/12 vs. Central Michigan IOWA CITY WIN

11/15 vs. Howard IOWA CITY WIN
11/17 vs. Gardner-Webb TV IOWA CITY WIN
11/20 vs. Western Kentucky CANCUN WIN
11/21 vs. DePaul /Wichita State CANCUN LOSS
11/27 at Virginia Tech BLACKSBURG WIN
12/01 vs. TexasA&M (CorpCr) IOWA CITY WIN

12/04 vs. South Dakota IOWA CITY WIN
12/07 vs. Iowa State IOWA CITY WIN
12/15 vs. UNI DES MOINES LOSS

12/19 vs. South Carolina State IOWA CITY WIN
12/22 vs. Coppin State IOWA CITY WIN
12/31 vs. Indiana IOWA CITY LOSS
01/06 at Michigan ANN ARBOR LOSS
01/10 vs.Mich State IOWA CITY LOSS
01/13 at Northwestern EVANSTON LOSS
01/19 vs. Wisconsin IOWA CITY WIN
01/22 at OhioState COLUMBUS LOSS
01/27 at Purdue W LAFAYETTE LOSS
01/31 vs. Penn State IOWA CITY WIN
02/03 at Minnesota MINNEAPOLIS LOSS
02/06 at Wisconsin MADISON LOSS
02/09 vs.Northwestern IOWA CITY WIN
02/14 at Penn State UNIVPARK WIN
02/17 vs.Minnesota IOWA CITY WIN
02/21 at Nebraska LINCOLN WIN
02/27 vs. Purdue IOWA CITY WIN
03/02 at Indiana BLOOMINGTON LOSS
03/05 vs. Illinois IOWA CITY WIN
03/09 vs. Nebraska IOWA CITY WIN
[h=3]Non-conference: 11-2
Conference: 9-9
Final Record (pre-B1G Tourney) 20-11[/h] I think the Iowa State and UNI games are toss-ups right now and Iowa’s second game in Cancun is very winnable, as well. I just don’t see them running the table in the non-conference. One thing is for sure, they cannot afford to lose to any of underdogs they face, as it would be a glaring bad loss on their resume.
The game in Evanston is a toss-up, as well. I have a good feeling that Iowa can win on the purple court, especially now that Shurna is gone. If Iowa can win that game (as well as the others I’ve predicted) then Iowa will be in the Dance, as a 10 B1G win team won’t be left out of the field. The Illinois game is also and intriguing one at the end of the year. If Groce has that team playing well, they could sneak out of Carver with a win.
Assuming my predictions above hold true and Iowa ends the season 20-11 (9-9), they probably are going to be on the outside of the bubble. Unless Iowa gets a win over Indiana, Michigan State or Michigan, they’ll need to get 1 or 2 in the Big Ten Tournament to get into the NCAA Tourney. At this point, I am predicting Iowa to be one of the top seeds in the N.I.T. even though going into the BTT Iowa would be 7-3 in their L10 per my prediction. The Hawkeyes appear to still be a year away at this point in time.
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JonDMiller said:
As it sits now, I still have Iowa finishing 3-1 the rest of the season. That includes a win tonight against Purdue, a loss at Indiana (the Hoosiers host Iowa Saturday, their first game back on the court after the Minnesota loss) and wins at home against Illinois and Nebraska to close out the season. If they do that, they should fare no worse than seventh, barring Illinois beat Ohio State in Columbus.

The 7th seed would match Iowa up against Nebraska for the third time in three weeks with the winner facing Michigan State. I don’t mind Iowa playing the Spartans again, as the first time around they did so without Devyn Marble and lost by three in Iowa City. That said, I’d rather play Northwestern in the first round with Wisconsin in the second round. It’s a more favorable matchup to get to the semi’s, in my opinion, and Iowa is going to have to win two games in the Big Ten tournament for NCAA bubble consideration.
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Iowa has only 2 routes to the NCAA's:

1) Finish 4-0 and make the finals

or

2) Win the BTT auto bid

That's it. The loss against Nebraska sealed that fate. Even if you beat Indiana that doesn't negate the bad losses vs. Nebraska and VaTech and lack of other strong wins.

I wouldn't put it past Iowa to win the auto bid. I said this in another thread but it is my opinion that ANYONE in the top 7 in this league can win the BTT with a few bounces and the proper motivation. Iowa will be properly motivated or at least they should be.
 


activebadger said:
Iowa has only 2 routes to the NCAA's:

1) Finish 4-0 and make the finals

or

2) Win the BTT auto bid

That's it. The loss against Nebraska sealed that fate. Even if you beat Indiana that doesn't negate the bad losses vs. Nebraska and VaTech and lack of other strong wins.

I wouldn't put it past Iowa to win the auto bid. I said this in another thread but it is my opinion that ANYONE in the top 7 in this league can win the BTT with a few bounces and the proper motivation. Iowa will be properly motivated or at least they should be.
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Technically, right now, Nebraska isn't a bad loss, as their RPI is <100.

The only current bad losses on Iowa resume are VT and Purdue.
The only quality wins are Wisconsin and Minnesota (<50 RPI).

If Iowa goes 4-0, as long as they have a strong showing in the semis, they have a shot.
It would mean they'd have wins over WI, MN, IU, and then another quality opp in the 2nd rd of the BTT.
They'll be on the bubble at minimum, will depend on the other bubble teams.

Let's just say it's not a great possibility, but it does exist.

This is very similar to the 2005 season. Iowa had a couple big wins (Louisville, Minn, and ISU) but lost to Mich and NW that year. Same setup as this year.
Iowa was actually 17-10 (5-9) at this point in the season. They won the next two to get to 7-9 in conf, 19-10.
Beat PU in the opening rd, then knocked off MSU in the 2nd rd. That was enough to get them in, coupled with the fact that they should (could) have beaten Bucky that year if not for a Alando Tucker miracle shot.
Iowa got the 10 seed that year and then got taken out by Cincy in the tourney.

This year is similar to that year. However, Iowa would have to have that same sort of run: 5 or 6 wins to get the season and get to the BTT semis. Not sure they can, but it's there.

Point I am making is Iowa doesn't have to get the BTT Champ game to get in if they beat IU, but that's also putting the cart way before the horse here. Winning in Bloomington is no easy feat.
 


Good work, Spank. I have a huge case of the blahs regarding the Hawks right now. I think it's a carryover from football and heartbreaking bb losses. Maybe we can make a run and I'll get excited again. Right now I feel like if I care less, close losses won't hurt as badly. Yeah, right. Oh well, I still feel like we are moving in the right direction. I know the squad has worked on the weights, but I feel like Mike G, Marble, White, and Woody will be markedly better with more strength. Marble's end-of-game mistakes come down to a lack of strength (in my opinion) Go Hawks!

storminspank said:
Ooo my turn, my turn...

Iowa MBB: VanLaere?s 2012-13 Season Preview & Prediction « Hawkeye NationHawkeye Nation
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storminspank said:
Technically, right now, Nebraska isn't a bad loss, as their RPI is <100.

The only current bad losses on Iowa resume are VT and Purdue.
The only quality wins are Wisconsin and Minnesota (<50 RPI).

If Iowa goes 4-0, as long as they have a strong showing in the semis, they have a shot.
It would mean they'd have wins over WI, MN, IU, and then another quality opp in the 2nd rd of the BTT.
They'll be on the bubble at minimum, will depend on the other bubble teams.

Let's just say it's not a great possibility, but it does exist.

This is very similar to the 2005 season. Iowa had a couple big wins (Louisville, Minn, and ISU) but lost to Mich and NW that year. Same setup as this year.
Iowa was actually 17-10 (5-9) at this point in the season. They won the next two to get to 7-9 in conf, 19-10.
Beat PU in the opening rd, then knocked off MSU in the 2nd rd. That was enough to get them in, coupled with the fact that they should (could) have beaten Bucky that year if not for a Alando Tucker miracle shot.
Iowa got the 10 seed that year and then got taken out by Cincy in the tourney.

This year is similar to that year. However, Iowa would have to have that same sort of run: 5 or 6 wins to get the season and get to the BTT semis. Not sure they can, but it's there.

Point I am making is Iowa doesn't have to get the BTT Champ game to get in if they beat IU, but that's also putting the cart way before the horse here. Winning in Bloomington is no easy feat.
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So Spank, does this mean that the Bubble Watch 2013 isn't really dead? ;)

Iowa just needs to take care of business. EVERYBODY on the team needs to step it up from here on out.

Do I believe they'll make the Big Dance? I'm 99% sure the answer is no, so I won't be disappointed. But that doesn't mean I'm not going to be cheering for the Hawks. I'm a FAN, which is short for FANatic. So yes .. I will continue to drink the Kool-Aide. A 6 game winning streak and the chances become much better.

GO HAWKS!!!
 


I think it was helpful as it shows our guys that they can expect to beat Indy at Indy... Gophers suck and beat them... we can do the same.
 


Those of you that think Iowa can finish 10-8 and not make the NCAA tournament are out of your minds. No way is the committee leaving out a 10-8 team. It isn't going to happen anyway.
 


activebadger said:
Iowa has only 2 routes to the NCAA's:

1) Finish 4-0 and make the finals

or

2) Win the BTT auto bid

That's it. The loss against Nebraska sealed that fate. Even if you beat Indiana that doesn't negate the bad losses vs. Nebraska and VaTech and lack of other strong wins.

I wouldn't put it past Iowa to win the auto bid. I said this in another thread but it is my opinion that ANYONE in the top 7 in this league can win the BTT with a few bounces and the proper motivation. Iowa will be properly motivated or at least they should be.
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Wrong! If Iowa goes 4-0 the won't need to make final. If Iowa wins out, all they need is 1 win in the BTT.
 


hawkforlife9 said:
I think it was helpful as it shows our guys that they can expect to beat Indy at Indy... Gophers suck and beat them... we can do the same.
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Iowa IMO wasn't and isn't winning in Bloomington and the fact that Indiana just lost at Minnesota wasn't helpful at all.
 


What Jon has for a bracket would be a good situation for us. The 2 teams I think would be our biggest problem our Indiana and Michigan and they are both on the other side. We barely lost to MSU without Marble and we know we can beat Wisconsin. I do think that the minimum for us to make the tournament would be a 3-1 finish and 2 wins in the BTT. That would put us at 22-12 and 7th in the Big 10. I think that would get us in.
 




HawkPrdatr40 said:
Wrong! If Iowa goes 4-0 the won't need to make final. If Iowa wins out, all they need is 1 win in the BTT.
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The numbers don't support your argument. You may be in the BIG but you will have played the weakest BIG schedule of any team and your OOC schedule is in the 300 range. Your RPI isn't going to jump into the 50's even if you do beat Indy.

I don't know the actual stat but I don't think ANY team with an RPI in the 70's have ever made the tournament.
 


activebadger said:
The numbers don't support your argument. You may be in the BIG but you will have played the weakest BIG schedule of any team and your OOC schedule is in the 300 range. Your RPI isn't going to jump into the 50's even if you do beat Indy.

I don't know the actual stat but I don't think ANY team with an RPI in the 70's have ever made the tournament.
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#67 is the worst RPI anyone has ever had to make the tourney.
 


Iowa isn't going to win in Indiana. Even if they did, 10-8 isn't going to vault them into them the NCAAs.

Only winning the BTT will do it. They can. It's not like they should be worn out from the season. Of the teams that have to win four, Iowa has the most bodies. Not impossible, but highly unlikely.
 


DDThompson said:
Iowa isn't going to win in Indiana. Even if they did, 10-8 isn't going to vault them into them the NCAAs.

Only winning the BTT will do it. They can. It's not like they should be worn out from the season. Of the teams that have to win four, Iowa has the most bodies. Not impossible, but highly unlikely.
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I think Iowa has a better chance of doing 4-in-4 and getting the automatic invite at this point than it does getting an at-large bid. That means I agree that I don't think Iowa is going to win @Indiana, and needs an automatic bid. If it were to finish 9-9 and get to the BTT title game, then I don't know.
 


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