Miller & Deace: Picking Iowa Game By Game

Whether Iowa is competitive in its last two games against Wisconsin and Nebraska will depend on injuries. If Iowa can stay relatively healthy to the end of the season they can keep up with either team. Wisconsin and Nebraska need to stay healthy too. All three teams are in the same boat as far as depth goes. A few positions are deep on each team, but there are thin at quite a few other places.
 
This seems like such a tough exercise to me, for the following reasons:

1. If you study Iowa year after year, the Ferentz "play 'em close" style and lack of explosiveness on offense results in a lot of close games. Iowa loses some of those games.
2. You are assuming in this type of analysis that Iowa has no key injuries. What happens if a player like Scherff has an injury that prevents him from playing in one or more of the first 6 games? What happens if Rudock goes down? (Sorry guys, I'm not sold on Beathard, notwithstanding the hype). Iowa does not have great depth on either side of the ball. We were relatively injury free in 2013, but that certainly was not the case in 2012, when two key linemen went down in the Penn State game (we did not win a game after those two key injuries).
3. Purdue is going to be better, and West Lafayette traditionally has been a very tough place for Iowa to play. Pitt will be sky high and they get us after an emotional rivalry game.
4. Iowa State gives us fits in most years.
5. Upsets happen in college football. The better team doesn't always win.
6. Unlike 2012, Iowa won two VERY CLOSE games in 2013 (Northwestern and Michigan). 8-4 could have been 6-6 (and it also could have been 9-3, since N. Illinois could very easily have been a win).
7. Although we should be slightly better on offense, I don't think we will be as dominant on defense with the loss of 3 truly outstanding LBs.


My realistic hope is that Iowa wins 3 of their 4 non-conference games, and then 4 of their first 6 conference games. If Iowa is 7-3 (4-2 in conference) and wins their last 2 games at home (which really could happen because I just don't think Nebby and Wisky are that good), they will be in the Big Ten title game (Nebby and Wisky each will have at least one conference loss going into the Iowa game, and thus losses against Iowa will have them losing the tiebreakers).

I think 9-3 and 6-2 in conference is absolute best case for this team (barring major injuries). Having them 6-0 after the first six is just crazy talk, particularly with 3 fantastic linebackers graduating. We can't replace those three dudes. Our LB play this year will be OK, but not nearly as good as it was last year. In short, we will score more points, but I believe we will give up more points as well. With the possible exception of 2002, Ferentz seems to do his best work when he has a dominant defense. I just don't think we will have a strong defense this year, but I sure hope I am wrong.

The podcast spent a ton of time analyzing the OPPONENT'S weaknesses.....but Iowa has weaknesses as well.

I predict 8-4 for Iowa and 5-3 in the Big Ten, (a very good season) qualifying for one of the better bowls, but no title this year. The defense simply will not be good enough.
 
JonDMiller said:
This is part one, games 1-6. Part 2 tomorrow and I will have a write up for the season like I normally do

http://www.hawkeyenation.com/football/miller-deace-predicting-iowas-2014-season
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Great podcast, as usual. I too am still suffering from the 2010 hangover, which makes it tough to make picks. That said, I also think Iowa starts 6-0. We are not without weaknesses, but we are good enough where we need to be, especially with the (relatively) easy schedule.

Will you and Deace continue the podcasts throughout the season? I hope so. Whether you agree with Deace's politics or not, I really enjoy his take on college football.
 
Injuries are always big- not only who has them but how the replacement player does but for Iowa and opponents.

Also new starters- LB's and new DBs'.

Being explosive on O would really help Iowa. Potential to be so is there- Powell, Willies an a RB not named Wiseman. Rudock growing a few better audiles, few less mistakes at key times we win 10. Lots of ifs though.
 
There is no doubt we will be favored in the first 6 games and should win them all. Now, history would tell you that Iowa will stumble once in the first six. I just don't think so though. This is a completely different coaching staff than the staff in KF's first 13 or so years. What happened last year...we beat everyone we should have beat, with maybe the exception of NIU, which was a pretty damn good team with a great college QB. That being said, if we had played NIU in the third game, I think we would have hammered the crap out of them on the ground the entire game. This staff proved last year they can beat the teams they should...well...they should beat the first six teams and I agree with Jon and Deace. If you follow that logic through the next four, then we are 10-0 playing Wisconsin.

I think it happens. It will be an interesting two game season. If we are health at game 11 and 10-0...I like our chance to get to Indianapolis.
 
Man, I could really go for 10-0 playing Wisconsin. Way too much has to happen before then though. But in true hawk fan fashion, it's fun to imagine.
 
I think at worst this Iowa team finishes at 9-3 (blinders off and everything). Yes, we lose 3 great linebackers but we have a strong DLine that should help. And we have an experience D backfield.

I actually think this could be a very special season. We have an experienced QB, one of the top OLines; a very good DLine ... Depth at the RB and TE positions ... I think Jake is going to have a stellar season. Cut down on those INTs and he had good numbers ... Jake is such a student of the game I really expect great things from him this season.

Now, I know we have a tendency to drop a game or two that we shouldn't ... And either Pitt or Maryland could be one of those games ... But, I think this Iowa program has a new sense of urgency ... a new attitude ... With this "new" staff now getting it's feet wet I really think this will be a year to shine.

As for Nebby and Whisky games ... Whisky has Gordon returning at RB but lost a lot of other key players and is still searching for its QB ... Neither of those teams scare me and we get them in Kinnick.

I think 2014 is going to be a fun ride ...
 
ChosenChildren said:
This seems like such a tough exercise to me, for the following reasons:

1. If you study Iowa year after year, the Ferentz "play 'em close" style and lack of explosiveness on offense results in a lot of close games. Iowa loses some of those games.
2. You are assuming in this type of analysis that Iowa has no key injuries. What happens if a player like Scherff has an injury that prevents him from playing in one or more of the first 6 games? What happens if Rudock goes down? (Sorry guys, I'm not sold on Beathard, notwithstanding the hype). Iowa does not have great depth on either side of the ball. We were relatively injury free in 2013, but that certainly was not the case in 2012, when two key linemen went down in the Penn State game (we did not win a game after those two key injuries).
3. Purdue is going to be better, and West Lafayette traditionally has been a very tough place for Iowa to play. Pitt will be sky high and they get us after an emotional rivalry game.
4. Iowa State gives us fits in most years.
5. Upsets happen in college football. The better team doesn't always win.
6. Unlike 2012, Iowa won two VERY CLOSE games in 2013 (Northwestern and Michigan). 8-4 could have been 6-6 (and it also could have been 9-3, since N. Illinois could very easily have been a win).
7. Although we should be slightly better on offense, I don't think we will be as dominant on defense with the loss of 3 truly outstanding LBs.


My realistic hope is that Iowa wins 3 of their 4 non-conference games, and then 4 of their first 6 conference games. If Iowa is 7-3 (4-2 in conference) and wins their last 2 games at home (which really could happen because I just don't think Nebby and Wisky are that good), they will be in the Big Ten title game (Nebby and Wisky each will have at least one conference loss going into the Iowa game, and thus losses against Iowa will have them losing the tiebreakers).

I think 9-3 and 6-2 in conference is absolute best case for this team (barring major injuries). Having them 6-0 after the first six is just crazy talk, particularly with 3 fantastic linebackers graduating. We can't replace those three dudes. Our LB play this year will be OK, but not nearly as good as it was last year. In short, we will score more points, but I believe we will give up more points as well. With the possible exception of 2002, Ferentz seems to do his best work when he has a dominant defense. I just don't think we will have a strong defense this year, but I sure hope I am wrong.

The podcast spent a ton of time analyzing the OPPONENT'S weaknesses.....but Iowa has weaknesses as well.

I predict 8-4 for Iowa and 5-3 in the Big Ten, (a very good season) qualifying for one of the better bowls, but no title this year. The defense simply will not be good enough.
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While i agree that with the early season losses in years past, that the pitt games seems iffy, I still think that iowa is clearly a better team. I think that they may start slow in a game like that and then rally in the second half for the win. Remember they lost the best defensive player in college football last year (arguably). and have a iffy qb situation. i disagree with the purdue game being tricky. that team is awful and was not even close to being in the game with iowa last year. isu will always be tricky because... well it just always is for some reason. however, the one time they have won in kinnick over the last several years, they had an extremely veteran laden ball club.
 
What I like to look for in the early games is how Iowa plays. Are they able to move the ball against a team they should. Is the line opening cracks or big gaping holes? Is the defense working as a unit? Are they covering when a blitz is called? If Iowa is going to have a great year they need to show up with the right attitude early. Too often they drop a game then get serious. The Iowa State series is an example. 2011 Iowa goes to Ames, plays horrible all game and loses in triple overtime. 2002 Iowa has a good strong team they host Iowa State and lose. And then they win out the season. Anyway, I don't see a loss on this season. But It's Iowa. Nebraska and Wisconsin have to be considered. With this schedule I would have to pick Iowa to go 9-3 or better.

-I like the opening game with Northern Iowa. They are a tough well coached team that will make Iowa play better. That being said they are overmatched against Iowa at just about every position.

-Ball State has a good receiver coming back but he will be looking for a hookup from a new QB. Also returning is their running back and three offensive linemen. I don't look for Iowa to have much trouble stopping the run. Ball State should be a tune up.

-Iowa State burning Iowa's secondary for three big passes last year making a blow out look better than it really should have. Iowa's secondary could make this year's game close again. Iowa State is returning all their starters from a year ago. Grant Rohach is picked to start at QB. On offense they should be better. But they have a long way to go to get to good. Let alone competitive. It's on defense where they have most of their problems. An all new defensive line, new line backers. They return a couple of defensive backs. Including Sam E. Richardson, a 5.7 defensive back. And yes I know Bob Sanders was only 5.9 but this guy is no "Bad Bob". This is on a defense that gave up 36 points a game. This was a bad defense last year and it could be scary bad this year. This shouldn't be a contest. Iowa should start the beat down early.
 
greenhawk said:
While i agree that with the early season losses in years past, that the pitt games seems iffy, I still think that iowa is clearly a better team. I think that they may start slow in a game like that and then rally in the second half for the win. Remember they lost the best defensive player in college football last year (arguably). and have a iffy qb situation. i disagree with the purdue game being tricky. that team is awful and was not even close to being in the game with iowa last year. isu will always be tricky because... well it just always is for some reason. however, the one time they have won in kinnick over the last several years, they had an extremely veteran laden ball club.
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One prediction here at LB, is that Quinton Alston will be the man this year. I think he is going to explode like Mike Daniels did once he got his shot and be a 4th round pick. Yeah we replace 3 starters, but all have played to some capacity. If one stands out and becomes an animal (like I predict Alston to) we'll be just fine.
 
HawkeyeDenis said:
What I like to look for in the early games is how Iowa plays. Are they able to move the ball against a team they should. Is the line opening cracks or big gaping holes? Is the defense working as a unit? Are they covering when a blitz is called? If Iowa is going to have a great year they need to show up with the right attitude early. Too often they drop a game then get serious. The Iowa State series is an example. 2011 Iowa goes to Ames, plays horrible all game and loses in triple overtime. 2002 Iowa has a good strong team they host Iowa State and lose. And then they win out the season. Anyway, I don't see a loss on this season. But It's Iowa. Nebraska and Wisconsin have to be considered. With this schedule I would have to pick Iowa to go 9-3 or better.

-I like the opening game with Northern Iowa. They are a tough well coached team that will make Iowa play better. That being said they are overmatched against Iowa at just about every position.

-Ball State has a good receiver coming back but he will be looking for a hookup from a new QB. Also returning is their running back and three offensive linemen. I don't look for Iowa to have much trouble stopping the run. Ball State should be a tune up.

-Iowa State burning Iowa's secondary for three big passes last year making a blow out look better than it really should have. Iowa's secondary could make this year's game close again. Iowa State is returning all their starters from a year ago. Grant Rohach is picked to start at QB. On offense they should be better. But they have a long way to go to get to good. Let alone competitive. It's on defense where they have most of their problems. An all new defensive line, new line backers. They return a couple of defensive backs. Including Sam E. Richardson, a 5.7 defensive back. And yes I know Bob Sanders was only 5.9 but this guy is no "Bad Bob". This is on a defense that gave up 36 points a game. This was a bad defense last year and it could be scary bad this year. This shouldn't be a contest. Iowa should start the beat down early.
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Out of these 3 games - UNI will be the closest and scariest! Panthers spending all spring and summer putting all their eggs in this game (they have a bye week after). David Johnson will be the best running back Hawks will see the 1st 2 months - will be coming with a large chip on his shoulder. Farley again will play the 'you weren't good enough to play at Iowa' card all August. UNI has 2 experienced quarterbacks, 4 OLineman back, receivers coming back from injury. Williams on D-line is a 300lb beast this year. They are thin, but would take them over ISU - again.
 
Purdue is going to struggle again...Iowa should handle them.

In the ESPN Big Ten Blog...Rittenberg looked at the characteristics that make up Big Ten Title winners over the last decade plus.

The keys are constant:

1. Run the ball......check
2. Stop the run....with our d-line, hopefully check.
3. Control the clock and win the turnover battle.....KF specializes in these areas, but turnovers can be tricky. Jake has got to reduce his interceptions, or we will be in trouble. In all of our losses last year, Jake throw picks.
4. Defense is more important than offense....that is again a KF deal.

That's it. Passing attack is not hugely meaningful, or even pass defense....it is still all about the ground in this league.
I think this is why KF schemes the way he does....he has studied these same stats and the winning formula is what he does.
 
I agree, the podcasts are great, even though Deace is a little full of himself, as we have come to expect.
 
teachercoach said:
Out of these 3 games - UNI will be the closest and scariest! Panthers spending all spring and summer putting all their eggs in this game (they have a bye week after). David Johnson will be the best running back Hawks will see the 1st 2 months - will be coming with a large chip on his shoulder. Farley again will play the 'you weren't good enough to play at Iowa' card all August. UNI has 2 experienced quarterbacks, 4 OLineman back, receivers coming back from injury. Williams on D-line is a 300lb beast this year. They are thin, but would take them over ISU - again.
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I agree Teacher. UNI is very well coached and they are motivated to beat Iowa. You could really see the quality of their program last year the way they went after Iowa State. I would love to see these guys hand to ISU again.
 
BillSPrestonEsq said:
One prediction here at LB, is that Quinton Alston will be the man this year. I think he is going to explode like Mike Daniels did once he got his shot and be a 4th round pick. Yeah we replace 3 starters, but all have played to some capacity. If one stands out and becomes an animal (like I predict Alston to) we'll be just fine.
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I agree. While we lost a great trio of linebackers, I think we'll be better there than people are expecting.
 
You are insane to think with this squad and this schedule anything worse than 9 W's I'd be questioning Ferentz and probably would sign petitions that someone go talk to him about gracefully bowing out before his contract is officially up.

ChosenChildren said:
This seems like such a tough exercise to me, for the following reasons:

1. If you study Iowa year after year, the Ferentz "play 'em close" style and lack of explosiveness on offense results in a lot of close games. Iowa loses some of those games.
2. You are assuming in this type of analysis that Iowa has no key injuries. What happens if a player like Scherff has an injury that prevents him from playing in one or more of the first 6 games? What happens if Rudock goes down? (Sorry guys, I'm not sold on Beathard, notwithstanding the hype). Iowa does not have great depth on either side of the ball. We were relatively injury free in 2013, but that certainly was not the case in 2012, when two key linemen went down in the Penn State game (we did not win a game after those two key injuries).
3. Purdue is going to be better, and West Lafayette traditionally has been a very tough place for Iowa to play. Pitt will be sky high and they get us after an emotional rivalry game.
4. Iowa State gives us fits in most years.
5. Upsets happen in college football. The better team doesn't always win.
6. Unlike 2012, Iowa won two VERY CLOSE games in 2013 (Northwestern and Michigan). 8-4 could have been 6-6 (and it also could have been 9-3, since N. Illinois could very easily have been a win).
7. Although we should be slightly better on offense, I don't think we will be as dominant on defense with the loss of 3 truly outstanding LBs.


My realistic hope is that Iowa wins 3 of their 4 non-conference games, and then 4 of their first 6 conference games. If Iowa is 7-3 (4-2 in conference) and wins their last 2 games at home (which really could happen because I just don't think Nebby and Wisky are that good), they will be in the Big Ten title game (Nebby and Wisky each will have at least one conference loss going into the Iowa game, and thus losses against Iowa will have them losing the tiebreakers).

I think 9-3 and 6-2 in conference is absolute best case for this team (barring major injuries). Having them 6-0 after the first six is just crazy talk, particularly with 3 fantastic linebackers graduating. We can't replace those three dudes. Our LB play this year will be OK, but not nearly as good as it was last year. In short, we will score more points, but I believe we will give up more points as well. With the possible exception of 2002, Ferentz seems to do his best work when he has a dominant defense. I just don't think we will have a strong defense this year, but I sure hope I am wrong.

The podcast spent a ton of time analyzing the OPPONENT'S weaknesses.....but Iowa has weaknesses as well.

I predict 8-4 for Iowa and 5-3 in the Big Ten, (a very good season) qualifying for one of the better bowls, but no title this year. The defense simply will not be good enough.
Click to expand...
 
teachercoach said:
Out of these 3 games - UNI will be the closest and scariest! Panthers spending all spring and summer putting all their eggs in this game (they have a bye week after). David Johnson will be the best running back Hawks will see the 1st 2 months - will be coming with a large chip on his shoulder. Farley again will play the 'you weren't good enough to play at Iowa' card all August. UNI has 2 experienced quarterbacks, 4 OLineman back, receivers coming back from injury. Williams on D-line is a 300lb beast this year. They are thin, but would take them over ISU - again.
Click to expand...
This X1000 If Iowa doesn't have their heads on straight and are not ready for a fight you can forget all about starting the season 10-0.
 
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