Math

[NikeHawk21]

Holy shit man...

You speaking about the techincals of sports betting is like me teaching sensitivity training to a room full of PhDs.

Everybody knows that one guy who goes on and on and on about some certain subject, making up bullshit under the guise of "conversation" so that everyone is supposed to think they know what they're talking about. In my opinion they do it for one of two reasons...1) they want to fit into a certain crowd and speak intelligently, or 2) they have extremely low self esteem and want to boost their ego a little bit. But the problem is that this guy doesn't realize that everyone completely sees through his bullshit and is just being nice by not calling him out. Sort of a "nod your head and smile" thing.

I'm sorry, but you're that guy when it comes to betting. You can come at us with all the "I have my system and it works for me" bullshit, and tell us what your spread calcs are, and how you've got some edge that Vegas bookmakers using supercomputers mysteriously haven't figured out yet, and tell us all about "anomalies" you've found (do you even know what that word really means?), but all it does is dig your bullshit hole deeper and deeper. There's a point at which you should quit while you're ahead and you've blown past it at 90 mph.

You've told us you live with a cat lady and have a house full of broken down shit consuming all your time, and that you paid a bill twice because you forgot to get a receipt for your cash. I'm sorry about your bad luck and cumulative poor life choices, but nobody here is going to believe for a New York second that you know the first fucking thing about making money on sports betting and how odds are made. I don't claim to be a source of knowledge on the subject whatsoever, and even I can see you're either totally full of shit or drunk (your weird carriage return thing when you type has got me wondering...).

Look man, don't feel bad. I got a dose of my own hubris tossed in my face as a younger guy too. I thought I was a really good pool player for a while, playing in tournaments around my home town, pool leagues, etc. So I decided I was going to take it up a notch and entered a 9 ball tournament in Omaha for $125; even got a hotel room to stay overnight. I went in there thinking it was going to go a certain way and got completely fucking destroyed 6 games in about 20 minutes. I guarantee you every single person in that building smelled sucker on me as soon as I got out of my car. By 10:20 I was out $250 bucks and looked like an idiot, but learning that I was a fucking idiot was priceless.

Don't be that guy. Everyone here smells sucker when you start posting about betting and you're just embarrassing yourself. I know you think I'm a dick but look at it this way, if you shit your pants but didn't know it, wouldn't you want someone to tell you you had a big brown stain on your drawers? Or would you rather walk around all day with poopy pants and everyone laughing at you behind your back?

That’s basically what I was getting at (in a slightly nicer way). No amateur sports bettor knows anything more than the next guy, so it was funny to watch him parade on and on about some major perceived discrepancy he found. If he were that good he’d be a professional, not a guy who almost lost his yearly allowance last week by loading his favorite team in a road game.

 

[kicker22]

Holy shit man...

You speaking about the techincals of sports betting is like me teaching sensitivity training to a room full of PhDs.

Everybody knows that one guy who goes on and on and on about some certain subject, making up bullshit under the guise of "conversation" so that everyone is supposed to think they know what they're talking about. In my opinion they do it for one of two reasons...1) they want to fit into a certain crowd and speak intelligently, or 2) they have extremely low self esteem and want to boost their ego a little bit. But the problem is that this guy doesn't realize that everyone completely sees through his bullshit and is just being nice by not calling him out. Sort of a "nod your head and smile" thing.

I'm sorry, but you're that guy when it comes to betting. You can come at us with all the "I have my system and it works for me" bullshit, and tell us what your spread calcs are, and how you've got some edge that Vegas bookmakers using supercomputers mysteriously haven't figured out yet, and tell us all about "anomalies" you've found (do you even know what that word really means?), but all it does is dig your bullshit hole deeper and deeper. There's a point at which you should quit while you're ahead and you've blown past it at 90 mph.

You've told us you live with a cat lady and have a house full of broken down shit consuming all your time, and that you paid a bill twice because you forgot to get a receipt for your cash. I'm sorry about your bad luck and cumulative poor life choices, but nobody here is going to believe for a New York second that you know the first fucking thing about making money on sports betting and how odds are made. I don't claim to be a source of knowledge on the subject whatsoever, and even I can see you're either totally full of shit or drunk (your weird carriage return thing when you type has got me wondering...).

Look man, don't feel bad. I got a dose of my own hubris tossed in my face as a younger guy too. I thought I was a really good pool player for a while, playing in tournaments around my home town, pool leagues, etc. So I decided I was going to take it up a notch and entered a 9 ball tournament in Omaha for $125; even got a hotel room to stay overnight. I went in there thinking it was going to go a certain way and got completely fucking destroyed 6 games in about 20 minutes. I guarantee you every single person in that building smelled sucker on me as soon as I got out of my car. By 10:20 I was out $250 bucks and looked like an idiot, but learning that I was a fucking idiot was priceless.

Don't be that guy. Everyone here smells sucker when you start posting about betting and you're just embarrassing yourself. I know you think I'm a dick but look at it this way, if you shit your pants but didn't know it, wouldn't you want someone to tell you you had a big brown stain on your drawers? Or would you rather walk around all day with poopy pants and everyone laughing at you behind your back?

You have no idea the amount of money you'd get from posters here for a sensitivity seminar. Count me in, I can't imagine what we'd be in for, but definitely wouldn't pass up that opportunity.

 

[hwk23]

The numbers say we stand a significantly lower chance of beating PSU at home (+3.5) than we did Mich on the road (+4.5).

Not true, Vegas thinks we have a slightly better chance this week. Vegas factors in everything to come up with the line. I actually think, since Vegas knows most of the public money will probably go on PSU with this line, that Vegas actually thinks Iowa is a toss-up or maybe slight favorite. The line is set somewhere between the real Vegas line (what Vegas actually thinks the score will be) and the public perceived line (what the public thinks the score will be). Vegas makes the most money when the public is way off.

 

[Fryowa]

Not true, Vegas thinks we have a slightly better chance this week. Vegas factors in everything to come up with the line. I actually think, since Vegas knows most of the public money will probably go on PSU with this line, that Vegas actually thinks Iowa is a toss-up or maybe slight favorite. The line is set somewhere between the real Vegas line (what Vegas actually thinks the score will be) and the public perceived line (what the public thinks the score will be). Vegas makes the most money when the public is way off.

He doesn’t get it. He’ll tell you he does, but he doesn’t.

 

[Robowe]

Penn State 17 - Iowa 12. Please discuss ...

 

[4thngoal]

He doesn’t get it. He’ll tell you he does, but he doesn’t.

Lol.
Uh huh.
Tell me all about this "better chance" of winning.
I said "The numbers say we stand a significantly lower chance of beating PSU at home (+3.5) than we did Mich on the road (+4.5)."
Was I wrong? I think not.

 

[Fryowa]

Lol.
Uh huh.
Tell me all about this "better chance" of winning.
I said "The numbers say we stand a significantly lower chance of beating PSU at home (+3.5) than we did Mich on the road (+4.5)."
Was I wrong? I think not.

Your pedantic posts on the nuances of sports betting were what I was referring to. You know that, and you're deflecting the point that you are a sucker bettor who doesn't know what he's talking about.

Anyone who says they have some sort of system to read the tea leaves and do better than 50% long term is a blowhard. The very best professional gamblers in the world are Rain Man-level savants and they only do between 52-55% depending on which source you read, and that requires upper six-figure bankrolls. And sharps don't win money on week old betting lines, they make money taking advatage of opening lines and the resulting shifts. You aren't that smart (nor am I).

You saying you saw some "anomalies" that perked your ears up is no different than me saying that it's going to snow in two weeks because of the way these wind gusts feel on my face today. Like I can just feel it and I'm smarter than predictive models run on supercomputers with many decades' worth of data.

Do you see how dumb that sounds? You're the only one who doesn't notice how ridiculous you come across, hence my analogy of a guy walking around with shit on his pants and not knowing. I was trying to help you quit digging a deeper moron hole, but you keep wanting to trudge on. So go ahead I guess.

 

[4thngoal]

Well Fry, not all of us get to buy our house from mommy.
You like apples?
Yeah my math is pretty good. Good enough to have your number.

 

[Fryowa]

Well Fry, not all of us get to buy our house from mommy.
You like apples?
Yeah my math is pretty good. Good enough to have your number.

You had a big long post about how you “see things other people don’t” and asked me “how do you like them apples.” You also said how you have a system that wins you way over the 55% that no one beats long term.

Why did you delete it? It was funny. Did you get embarrassed by your own stupidity?

Not sure what the house buying thing is about.

And you still don’t know shit about sports betting. Tell us again about your mental system you use and how you “see things other people don’t.” It’s cute.

 

[Northside Hawk]

You had a big long post about how you “see things other people don’t” and asked me “how do you like them apples.” You also said how you have a system that wins you way over the 55% that no one beats long term.

Why did you delete it? It was funny. Did you get embarrassed by your own stupidity?

Not sure what the house buying thing is about.

And you still don’t know shit about sports betting. Tell us again about your mental system you use and how you “see things other people don’t.” It’s cute.

I could be wrong, and you probably know more about this than I do, but to me the only way you could consistently hit 55% or better is to constantly stick and move, and show restraint in how often you put down action on games.

Very, very few people have this type discipline, which is why to bookies eventually get them. They either start betting on too many games or start betting more money than they should or start taking longer and longer odds. I'm sure there's some kind of study that shows a physiological or psychological reason why people do this.

This story is a little off course, but I knew a young kid who used to bet on the greyhounds in Dubuque. He kept to himself and rarely talked to others. He claimed there was some formula based on the numbers of greyhounds, their birthdates, and astrology, if you could figure it out in time between races. He once left his racing program behind at a table and it was filled wirh geometric and astrological connections based on all the data in the program. Then out of the blue he stopped going to the track. But one day he left an ATM slip behind with his program. The SOB had more than $24,000 in his bank account.

 

[Fryowa]

I could be wrong, and you probably know more about this than I do, but to me the only way you could consistently hit 55% or better is to constantly stick and move, and show restraint in how often you put down action on games.

Very, very few people have this type discipline, which is why to bookies eventually get them. They either start betting on too many games or start betting more money than they should or start taking longer and longer odds. I'm sure there's some kind of study that shows a physiological or psychological reason why people do this.

This story is a little off course, but I knew a young kid who used to bet on the greyhounds in Dubuque. He kept to himself and rarely talked to others. He claimed there was some formula based on the numbers of greyhounds, their birthdates, and astrology, if you could figure it out in time between races. He once left his racing program behind at a table and it was filled wirh geometric and astrological connections based on all the data in the program. Then out of the blue he stopped going to the track. But one day he left an ATM slip behind with his program. The SOB had more than $24,000 in his bank account.

Between 52 and 55% is what the absolute best professional gamblers do over the long term, depending on the source. And they don't really make that extra percentage on being good at picking spreads, they do it by being ridiculously smart and taking advantage of early lines that are sideways. And you can imagine the bankrolls it would take to make a better living than you can get at a 9-5. reddit.com/r/sportsbook is a great read to get an idea of how serious bidders operate once you weed through the hacks posting. (Hint, you won't find anything remotely close to weird stuff @4thngoal writes, but that's because he has a "system.")

@4thngoal had a super long post written up yesterday replying to me that he's like 600% up at one point of his lifetime, and that there was a certain instance he was betting where he realized that he "see(s) things that other people don't, I can't explain it."

Then he told me again how he was way ahead overall and literally asked me how I liked those apples.

And then deleted his post. I screenshotted it but I'm not gonna post it unless he denies writing it. I honestly think he's got a little bit of a mental issue going on thinking he has some kind of Rain Man super power for betting but not being able to afford a washer or mower. I mean, we're supposed to sit back and absorb betting knowledge about "anomalies" from a guy who has started two threads now about how his $50 full year allowance is gone and he can't afford more? That right there would tell you the guy's a little handicapped.

 

[Northside Hawk]

Between 52 and 55% is what the absolute best professional gamblers do over the long term, depending on the source. And they don't really make that extra percentage on being good at picking spreads, they do it by being ridiculously smart and taking advantage of early lines that are sideways. And you can imagine the bankrolls it would take to make a better living than you can get at a 9-5. reddit.com/r/sportsbook is a great read to get an idea of how serious bidders operate once you weed through the hacks posting. (Hint, you won't find anything remotely close to weird stuff @4thngoal writes, but that's because he has a "system.")

@4thngoal had a super long post written up yesterday replying to me that he's like 600% up at one point of his lifetime, and that there was a certain instance he was betting where he realized that he "see(s) things that other people don't, I can't explain it."

Then he told me again how he was way ahead overall and literally asked me how I liked those apples.

And then deleted his post. I screenshotted it but I'm not gonna post it unless he denies writing it. I honestly think he's got a little bit of a mental issue going on thinking he has some kind of Rain Man super power for betting but not being able to afford a washer or mower. I mean, we're supposed to sit back and absorb betting knowledge about "anomalies" from a guy who has started two threads now about how his $50 full year allowance is gone and he can't afford more? That right there would tell you the guy's a little handicapped.

600% is beyond preposterous. It's impossible. Hell 60% is. If it were that easy everyone who posts on these boards would be sitting poolside in Jamaica or Cancun sipping pina coladas for a living. And the bookies would be getting wiped out.

If you're making a 6% profit betting on sports that would be a commendable accomplishment.

 

[4thngoal]

You had a big long post about how you “see things other people don’t” and asked me “how do you like them apples.” You also said how you have a system that wins you way over the 55% that no one beats long term.

Why did you delete it? It was funny. Did you get embarrassed by your own stupidity?

Not sure what the house buying thing is about.

And you still don’t know shit about sports betting. Tell us again about your mental system you use and how you “see things other people don’t.” It’s cute.

Because my business is none of your business.
You are not the first to ask how and you probably won't be the last.
In the end, I'm only here typing this because I am a Hawk fan. I lost my deposit in the betting account and I'm done for the year.
That's how I roll.
I have no skin in the game. It doesn't really matter if the Hawks win or lose the rest of the year because I will still be a fan no matter what.
But you have no skin in my game. We are not buddies we are not business partners.
I owe you exactly zero. No explanation. No proof or anything of what I know or don't know. What I have done or haven't done.
And that's that. The end.

 

[4thngoal]

600% is beyond preposterous. It's impossible. Hell 60% is. If it were that easy everyone who posts on these boards would be sitting poolside in Jamaica or Cancun sipping pina coladas for a living. And the bookies would be getting wiped out.

If you're making a 6% profit betting on sports that would be a commendable accomplishment.

6 times. I started with $50 that someone else deposited because they didn't believe me. Turned it to over $300 by week 4.
Lost most of it on the Michigan game and the rest that Sunday and Monday.
But as I said the penny slots are fun for awhile and that's it.
You see I have crap to do. Crap that if I had to pay someone to do would total far more than I was making on betting $25 here and $50 there.
You understand? Make a move. Shit or get off the pot.

 

[Fryowa]

We are not buddies.

And that's that. The end.

You’re wrong, Jack.

We’re most definitely buddies. You and I are like Jenny and Forrest and don’t you forget it.

 

[Fryowa]

6 times. I started with $50 that someone else deposited because they didn't believe me. Turned it to over $300 by week 4.
Lost most of it on the Michigan game and the rest that Sunday and Monday.
But as I said the penny slots are fun for awhile and that's it.
You see I have crap to do. Crap that if I had to pay someone to do would total far more than I was making on betting $25 here and $50 there.
You understand? Make a move. Shit or get off the pot.

What you don't mention is that you can't do that over the long term. So you don't actually have a "system" or any "anomalies."

 

[4thngoal]

What you don't mention is that you can't do that over the long term. So you don't actually have a "system" or any "anomalies."

Well I've done it before. Over and over. Been doing it for years.
So whatever.

 

[Fryowa]

Well I've done it before. Over and over. Been doing it for years.
So whatever.

So you have a savant-level skill and can make big money sports gambling, but you just choose not to?

Suuuuuuuuuure......

 

[hawkeyes87]

You and I are like Jenny and Forrest and don’t you forget it.

Forrest Gump? Nah...

So you have a savant-level skill and can make big money sports gambling,

You two are more like the Rain Man pair:

Doctor: "@4thngoal, do you know the square root of 2130?"

4thngoal : "4-6 point 1-5-1-9-2-3-0-4"

Fryiowa: "That's amazing! He is amazing! He should work for NASA or something like that."

Doctor: "If you had a dollar, and you spent 50 cents, how much money would you have left?"

4thngoal: "About 70"

Doctor: "70 cents?"

4thngoal: "70 cents"

Fryiowa: "So much for the NASA idea."

 

[Robowe]