Math

[4thngoal]

Last week @ Mich Hawks +4.5
This week @ home against PSu which is a better team than Mich. the line was at 3.5 last night.
So I don't know how I started to explain it, but in the end everything neutral take 3 away from Mich for being at home and Iowa is +1.5 against Mich. Add 3 to this week if we weren't at home and as of last night we are +6.5. correct?
5 point difference. The difference between a fg against us or a TD. Where as mich was a fg difference. Everything neutral.
My point was that that is pretty tight odds against a top 10 team. Especially if you consider they are better on offense than Mich and more importantly, they are better on defense. The weakest side of the ball for us? Against a better defense? Crowd noise affects their offense more than their defense.
As for their offense, we are at home at night and our D is pretty good. So the fact their offense is better than Mich might not matter much.
Summary.
The numbers say we stand a significantly lower chance of beating PSU at home (+3.5) than we did Mich on the road (+4.5).

Now I'm not a downer. Can we do it? Absolutely. I wouldn't bet the farm on it.
But if we play like we can, we win. If even the stench of that shit show from last week remains? It's going to be tough tough tough.
We give up sacks and turn the ball over like that and PSU is going to absolutely crush us. We are lucky a worse team in Mich didn't pull way out ahead and beat us by much more.
But the way I see it is we can't come in and play safe ball, limiting possessions and not score TD's. You want to slow it down and play top and field position, you had better get TD's and not fg's because you are not only limiting their possessions and chances to score, but your own as well.
A little advice? After each team has had a possession the tempo of the game becomes clearer. If you are using 8 minutes to drive 80 yards and they use 3
You had better watch yourself, because in a close game, you may dominate top. You may have long sustaining drives. You may even get TD's. But what that equals to a team that can strike fast is the equivalent of giving you 5 yards and the middle of the field at the end of the game. The underneath stuff.

Betting and football 101.
In the end I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that PSU scores 21 or so. So limit those possessions all you want, but you had better plan on scoring points.

 

[Hawkfnntn]

They may be taking into account Iowas D is pretty darn good and being in Kinnick at night is certainly a factor... To what extent I dunno. I agree holding PSU to under 20 will be tough. Hopefully homefield cooking and an improved running game will help

 

[Ree4]

Go back to 2016, we got destroyed 41-14 at PSU then came back the next week against #3 Michigan and won. People thought we were going to get annihilated in that game. Anything can happen week to week, I think we have a pretty good chance.

Luckily PSU doesn't blitz as much as Michigan, their blitzes were well disguised and when they faked them, it really messed us up too. We might actually get a PI call or two this week too since we're at home, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

 

[Northside Hawk]

Last week @ Mich Hawks +4.5
This week @ home against PSu which is a better team than Mich. the line was at 3.5 last night.
So I don't know how I started to explain it, but in the end everything neutral take 3 away from Mich for being at home and Iowa is +1.5 against Mich. Add 3 to this week if we weren't at home and as of last night we are +6.5. correct?
5 point difference. The difference between a fg against us or a TD. Where as mich was a fg difference. Everything neutral.
My point was that that is pretty tight odds against a top 10 team. Especially if you consider they are better on offense than Mich and more importantly, they are better on defense. The weakest side of the ball for us? Against a better defense? Crowd noise affects their offense more than their defense.
As for their offense, we are at home at night and our D is pretty good. So the fact their offense is better than Mich might not matter much.
Summary.
The numbers say we stand a significantly lower chance of beating PSU at home (+3.5) than we did Mich on the road (+4.5).

Now I'm not a downer. Can we do it? Absolutely. I wouldn't bet the farm on it.
But if we play like we can, we win. If even the stench of that shit show from last week remains? It's going to be tough tough tough.
We give up sacks and turn the ball over like that and PSU is going to absolutely crush us. We are lucky a worse team in Mich didn't pull way out ahead and beat us by much more.
But the way I see it is we can't come in and play safe ball, limiting possessions and not score TD's. You want to slow it down and play top and field position, you had better get TD's and not fg's because you are not only limiting their possessions and chances to score, but your own as well.
A little advice? After each team has had a possession the tempo of the game becomes clearer. If you are using 8 minutes to drive 80 yards and they use 3
You had better watch yourself, because in a close game, you may dominate top. You may have long sustaining drives. You may even get TD's. But what that equals to a team that can strike fast is the equivalent of giving you 5 yards and the middle of the field at the end of the game. The underneath stuff.

Betting and football 101.
In the end I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that PSU scores 21 or so. So limit those possessions all you want, but you had better plan on scoring points.

Last week @ Mich Hawks +4.5
This week @ home against PSu which is a better team than Mich. the line was at 3.5 last night.
So I don't know how I started to explain it, but in the end everything neutral take 3 away from Mich for being at home and Iowa is +1.5 against Mich. Add 3 to this week if we weren't at home and as of last night we are +6.5. correct?
5 point difference. The difference between a fg against us or a TD. Where as mich was a fg difference. Everything neutral.
My point was that that is pretty tight odds against a top 10 team. Especially if you consider they are better on offense than Mich and more importantly, they are better on defense. The weakest side of the ball for us? Against a better defense? Crowd noise affects their offense more than their defense.
As for their offense, we are at home at night and our D is pretty good. So the fact their offense is better than Mich might not matter much.
Summary.
The numbers say we stand a significantly lower chance of beating PSU at home (+3.5) than we did Mich on the road (+4.5).

Now I'm not a downer. Can we do it? Absolutely. I wouldn't bet the farm on it.
But if we play like we can, we win. If even the stench of that shit show from last week remains? It's going to be tough tough tough.
We give up sacks and turn the ball over like that and PSU is going to absolutely crush us. We are lucky a worse team in Mich didn't pull way out ahead and beat us by much more.
But the way I see it is we can't come in and play safe ball, limiting possessions and not score TD's. You want to slow it down and play top and field position, you had better get TD's and not fg's because you are not only limiting their possessions and chances to score, but your own as well.
A little advice? After each team has had a possession the tempo of the game becomes clearer. If you are using 8 minutes to drive 80 yards and they use 3
You had better watch yourself, because in a close game, you may dominate top. You may have long sustaining drives. You may even get TD's. But what that equals to a team that can strike fast is the equivalent of giving you 5 yards and the middle of the field at the end of the game. The underneath stuff.

Betting and football 101.
In the end I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that PSU scores 21 or so. So limit those possessions all you want, but you had better plan on scoring points.

After reading this post, I feel like I just took a math test.

 

[NikeHawk21]

Last week @ Mich Hawks +4.5
This week @ home against PSu which is a better team than Mich. the line was at 3.5 last night.
So I don't know how I started to explain it, but in the end everything neutral take 3 away from Mich for being at home and Iowa is +1.5 against Mich. Add 3 to this week if we weren't at home and as of last night we are +6.5. correct?
5 point difference. The difference between a fg against us or a TD. Where as mich was a fg difference. Everything neutral.
My point was that that is pretty tight odds against a top 10 team. Especially if you consider they are better on offense than Mich and more importantly, they are better on defense. The weakest side of the ball for us? Against a better defense? Crowd noise affects their offense more than their defense.
As for their offense, we are at home at night and our D is pretty good. So the fact their offense is better than Mich might not matter much.
Summary.
The numbers say we stand a significantly lower chance of beating PSU at home (+3.5) than we did Mich on the road (+4.5).

Now I'm not a downer. Can we do it? Absolutely. I wouldn't bet the farm on it.
But if we play like we can, we win. If even the stench of that shit show from last week remains? It's going to be tough tough tough.
We give up sacks and turn the ball over like that and PSU is going to absolutely crush us. We are lucky a worse team in Mich didn't pull way out ahead and beat us by much more.
But the way I see it is we can't come in and play safe ball, limiting possessions and not score TD's. You want to slow it down and play top and field position, you had better get TD's and not fg's because you are not only limiting their possessions and chances to score, but your own as well.
A little advice? After each team has had a possession the tempo of the game becomes clearer. If you are using 8 minutes to drive 80 yards and they use 3
You had better watch yourself, because in a close game, you may dominate top. You may have long sustaining drives. You may even get TD's. But what that equals to a team that can strike fast is the equivalent of giving you 5 yards and the middle of the field at the end of the game. The underneath stuff.

Betting and football 101.
In the end I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that PSU scores 21 or so. So limit those possessions all you want, but you had better plan on scoring points.

If you consider yourself an educated gambler you should know by the percentages a slight home dog by the numbers has a much better chance to cover and win outright. You trying to compare Michigan and Penn State is a simple waste of time, as Saturday is a new game and new circumstances.

When you’ve been around betting long enough you start to realize that when the line doesn’t seem to make sense, you take the opposite of the team that seems to good to be true... aka a trap line.

I’m not saying this game is one of them, many of the metrics still think pretty highly of Iowa and obviously the home field advantage is playing a big factor.

 

[4thngoal]

If you consider yourself an educated gambler you should know by the percentages a slight home dog by the numbers has a much better chance to cover and win outright. You trying to compare Michigan and Penn State is a simple waste of time, as Saturday is a new game and new circumstances.

When you’ve been around betting long enough you start to realize that when the line doesn’t seem to make sense, you take the opposite of the team that seems to good to be true... aka a trap line.

I’m not saying this game is one of them, many of the metrics still think pretty highly of Iowa and obviously the home field advantage is playing a big factor.

PSU is a better team than Mich. I don't care how you look at it. You might be able to find one or two arguments to argue that isn't the case, but there are 10 things saying they are better.
Two things about me. #1 I hate to lose. It's the principal of it. It's very deep seeded and personal. I understand it happens, but I hate it and I don't hate. #2 I don't like giving up points. Again it's deep seeded. Like KF said, yeah we held Michigan to 10, but if we shut them down completely, our 3 was enough to win.
So when you start telling me that you are going to give me 3 for playing in the big house but you are going to take 4-5 when I'm at home?? Well you can see the problem. Refer to #2.

 

[NikeHawk21]

PSU is a better team than Mich. I don't care how you look at it. You might be able to find one or two arguments to argue that isn't the case, but there are 10 things saying they are better.
Two things about me. #1 I hate to lose. It's the principal of it. It's very deep seeded and personal. I understand it happens, but I hate it and I don't hate. #2 I don't like giving up points. Again it's deep seeded. Like KF said, yeah we held Michigan to 10, but if we shut them down completely, our 3 was enough to win.
So when you start telling me that you are going to give me 3 for playing in the big house but you are going to take 4-5 when I'm at home?? Well you can see the problem. Refer to #2.

Yes Penn State is better... and the year we hammered OSU then got smacked around by Bucky the following week UW wasn’t a better team. It’s football, it happens.

I’m not trying to be an ass, but in your second paragraph and your recent posts about this I literally don’t know if you just simply don’t understand what you are talking about, or you just have a really tough time explaining your point.

Are you trying to say that last week you liked Iowa because you felt they were a better team and were getting points, whereas this week you feel Penn State is a much better team and should be favored by more? Basically you don’t like the idea home field advantage changing lines?

I already bet on Penn State, but I typically bet against Iowa because I feel it’s a win win.

 

[4thngoal]

Yes Penn State is better... and the year we hammered OSU then got smacked around by Bucky the following week UW wasn’t a better team. It’s football, it happens.

I’m not trying to be an ass, but in your second paragraph and your recent posts about this I literally don’t know if you just simply don’t understand what you are talking about, or you just have a really tough time explaining your point.

Are you trying to say that last week you liked Iowa because you felt they were a better team and were getting points, whereas this week you feel Penn State is a much better team and should be favored by more? Basically you don’t like the idea home field advantage changing lines?

I already bet on Penn State, but I typically bet against Iowa because I feel it’s a win win.

Ok so PSU is better than Michigan. Correct?
Than the only reason PSU is not favored by more is because someone thinks the gap between PSU, Iowa and thus Michigan since we played them is extremely close. Which is not likely. Two of those teams being closely matched is more likely. Agree so far? (The difference between a 2 team parlay and a 3 team parlay)
As I have apparently failed to explain my point, it would seem Iowa and Michigan are closer to being closely matched then PSU and Iowa. Agree? Because almost everything says that, from lines to rankings, to the score being 10-3, to scoring numbers and on and on. We play Michigan 10 times, how many do we win? Probably pretty closely matched.
So the only reason I can think of that PSU isn't favored by more is because we are at home. So again you want to give me 3 to go to your house but take 4-5 if you have to come to mine.
Because if this game were in California with one week to prepare, it would probably be right at Iowa +8.5 (maybe +8 but possibly +9) So the numbers don't add up Iowa +4 plus -3 for being at home is +7 NOT +8.5.
That make sense?
Where did that other point or two go? Because if we are getting a legit +3 for home field, than somebody thinks Iowa is closer to PSU then Michigan. But it doesn't appear that way does it?

But you are right, anything can happen. That's why we play the game. I hope the Hawks stomp a mud hole in their arse.
But it's going to be a tough task. That's all I'm saying.

 

[4thngoal]

Basically I don't like the numbers.
Something isn't right about them. Could it be that point or two that disappeared is hiding behind the fact Iowa just legalized sports betting and the Hawks are at home with a good defense?
Probably.
It's already rigged. Vegas wasn't built on winners. You are always at a disadvantage.
But the lesser the disadvantage the better.
Another thing 99.9% of people fail to understand is you are not betting against the house, they are going to get paid no matter what. You are betting against other people. That is the game changer when you realize the truth in that.
This isn't black jack where if everyone knows how to play you increase your odds against the dealer. Because here the odds are fluid and they will move them to stay neutral and keep people betting against people and not the house.

Yeah I know football and yeah I know exactly how lines work. I may not be a wordsmith, but hey, I don't really care.

 

[NikeHawk21]

Ok so PSU is better than Michigan. Correct?
Than the only reason PSU is not favored by more is because someone thinks the gap between PSU, Iowa and thus Michigan since we played them is extremely close. Which is not likely. Two of those teams being closely matched is more likely. Agree so far? (The difference between a 2 team parlay and a 3 team parlay)
As I have apparently failed to explain my point, it would seem Iowa and Michigan are closer to being closely matched then PSU and Iowa. Agree? Because almost everything says that, from lines to rankings, to the score being 10-3, to scoring numbers and on and on. We play Michigan 10 times, how many do we win? Probably pretty closely matched.
So the only reason I can think of that PSU isn't favored by more is because we are at home. So again you want to give me 3 to go to your house but take 4-5 if you have to come to mine.
Because if this game were in California with one week to prepare, it would probably be right at Iowa +8.5 (maybe +8 but possibly +9) So the numbers don't add up Iowa +4 plus -3 for being at home is +7 NOT +8.5.
That make sense?
Where did that other point or two go? Because if we are getting a legit +3 for home field, than somebody thinks Iowa is closer to PSU then Michigan. But it doesn't appear that way does it?

But you are right, anything can happen. That's why we play the game. I hope the Hawks stomp a mud hole in their arse.
But it's going to be a tough task. That's all I'm saying.

So you have confirmed your math is very bad or you are simply misunderstanding something... again I’m not trying to be an ass. Your parlay comment makes zero sense as well. But let’s get back to the main thing you are struggling with.

Iowa at Michigan (Iowa was a 3-4 point underdog), meaning on a neutral field basically an evenly matched group of teams, assuming 3 points for Michigan’s home field advantage.

This week game is at Kinnick Stadium. In this weeks game the road team is actually favored by 4 points that team being Penn State. Recall the road team was the underdog in the Iowa Michigan matchup. So on a neutral field Penn State would be roughly a 7 point favorite against Iowa, because they are a better team.

So now recall on a neutral field Iowa and Michigan were considered an even match. That would lead me to believe Penn State would be roughly a 7 point favorite against Michigan on a neutral field as well. They play next week at PSU so expect that line to be roughly 10 points depending on how this week goes.

Got it? I’m not sure where your disconnect is because those lines are saying exactly what you believe to be the truth that Penn State is above Iowa and Michigan.

 

[4thngoal]

So you have confirmed your math is very bad or you are simply misunderstanding something... again I’m not trying to be an ass. Your parlay comment makes zero sense as well. But let’s get back to the main thing you are struggling with.

Iowa at Michigan (Iowa was a 3-4 point underdog), meaning on a neutral field basically an evenly matched group of teams, assuming 3 points for Michigan’s home field advantage.

This week game is at Kinnick Stadium. In this weeks game the road team is actually favored by 4 points that team being Penn State. Recall the road team was the underdog in the Iowa Michigan matchup. So on a neutral field Penn State would be roughly a 7 point favorite against Iowa, because they are a better team.

So now recall on a neutral field Iowa and Michigan were considered an even match. That would lead me to believe Penn State would be roughly a 7 point favorite against Michigan on a neutral field as well. They play next week at PSU so expect that line to be roughly 10 points depending on how this week goes.

Got it? I’m not sure where your disconnect is because those lines are saying exactly what you believe to be the truth that Penn State is above Iowa and Michigan.

Jesus.
Is it more likely that two teams tie for their division or 3 teams tie? Do the odds not go to the plus more for a 3 team parlay over a 2 team parlay? Why? Because it's not as likely.
So obviously in a three team situation 2 are probably more closely matched. Ta da.
As I said, everything points to Iowa and Michigan being the two teams that are closely matched. So no I don't like +1.5 against Michigan on a neutral field then turn around against a team that is better than Michigan and only get (current line +3.5) +6.5 against a better team on a neutral field.
Because I think PSU has a larger gap between themselves and Michigan than that.
Everything says they do!
HOWEVER. We are not at a neutral field. So one must ask who's defense is better PSU or Michigan? Probably PSU. Crowd noise isn't going to affect their defense much. Then one must ask who's offense is better Michigan or PSU? Probably PSU. Crowd noise can affect their offense more.
Then one must ask which side of the ball has Iowa struggled with? Hello?
So again I don't like the numbers.
All you are doing is simple math. The line here, the line there, the line at a neutral site.
Of course those numbers work out.
But along with realizing the full truth that you are betting against other people. You must realize you are looking for an anomaly in the numbers. Not trying to look and say yup here there or on neutral they add up. It's much better hidden than that.

I took the Hawks big last week because the the numbers worked. The anomly was in my favor.
How the hell was I supposed to know we would turn the ball over and over and over again. Or that we wouldn't be able to block....... anyone and allow 8 sacks.
We should have won that game. And that's the bad part. You win the ones you can.
This week, I'm not saying the Hawks can't win. I'm saying the line is not as good as last week. It wasn't even at +4.5

So first we realize we are not betting against the house. If a bear is chasing us, all I have to do is run faster than the slowest person.
Then we watch for the bear. An anomaly.
Lastly we never bet against our home team.
That has bad ju ju written all over it. If you can't get behind them to win, then at least don't go against them.
Would you bet on your kid to finish college or not? No.

 

[NikeHawk21]

Jesus.
Is it more likely that two teams tie for their division or 3 teams tie? Do the odds not go to the plus more for a 3 team parlay over a 2 team parlay? Why? Because it's not as likely.
So obviously in a three team situation 2 are probably more closely matched. Ta da.
As I said, everything points to Iowa and Michigan being the two teams that are closely matched. So no I don't like +1.5 against Michigan on a neutral field then turn around against a team that is better than Michigan and only get (current line +3.5) +6.5 against a better team on a neutral field.
Because I think PSU has a larger gap between themselves and Michigan than that.
Everything says they do!
HOWEVER. We are not at a neutral field. So one must ask who's defense is better PSU or Michigan? Probably PSU. Crowd noise isn't going to affect their defense much. Then one must ask who's offense is better Michigan or PSU? Probably PSU. Crowd noise can affect their offense more.
Then one must ask which side of the ball has Iowa struggled with? Hello?
So again I don't like the numbers.
All you are doing is simple math. The line here, the line there, the line at a neutral site.
Of course those numbers work out.
But along with realizing the full truth that you are betting against other people. You must realize you are looking for an anomaly in the numbers. Not trying to look and say yup here there or on neutral they add up. It's much better hidden than that.

I took the Hawks big last week because the the numbers worked. The anomly was in my favor.
How the hell was I supposed to know we would turn the ball over and over and over again. Or that we wouldn't be able to block....... anyone and allow 8 sacks.
We should have won that game. And that's the bad part. You win the ones you can.
This week, I'm not saying the Hawks can't win. I'm saying the line is not as good as last week. It wasn't even at +4.5

Fair enough you don’t like the value in Iowa this week, nothing wrong with that. The way you are trying to compare the games in a vacuum is a fools errand in my opinion but to each their own.

There are several other factors that can be involved. Noon game vs Night game. Michigan absolutely needing a win and tons of pressure on Harbaugh. Now this week Iowa coming off a loss and poor performance, as I said in my first response to in an earlier thread, reversion to the mean. Meaning Iowa’s offense isn’t likely as bad as it looked last week, and Penn State might not be as good as they’ve looked the last two games.

Another thing I’d point out is your belief that there is a much larger gap between Michigan and Penn State, which is your perception. Here’s what the computer models say (you can knock computer models, but typically they are very close to the actual lines).

Massey: PSU 8, UM 14, Iowa 15
Sagarin: PSU 7, UM 13, Iowa 17
TeamRankings: PSU 6, UM 13, Iowa 16

So if you refer back to my prior post, the lines are saying Penn State is about 7 points better than Michigan on a neutral field. You really think the difference between the #7 team and #13 team in college football is more than a touchdown (on average of course)?

Massey actually projects game scores, and they have Iowa losing to PSU 18-21, so right in there.

 

[4thngoal]

I'm not saying don't bet on the Hawks. You know we thrive in these situations.
I'm saying the line is not as good as last week.

 

[4thngoal]

Fair enough you don’t like the value in Iowa this week, nothing wrong with that. The way you are trying to compare the games in a vacuum is a fools errand in my opinion but to each their own.

There are several other factors that can be involved. Noon game vs Night game. Michigan absolutely needing a win and tons of pressure on Harbaugh. Now this week Iowa coming off a loss and poor performance, as I said in my first response to in an earlier thread, reversion to the mean. Meaning Iowa’s offense isn’t likely as bad as it looked last week, and Penn State might not be as good as they’ve looked the last two games.

Another thing I’d point out is your belief that there is a much larger gap between Michigan and Penn State, which is your perception. Here’s what the computer models say (you can knock computer models, but typically they are very close to the actual lines).

Massey: PSU 8, UM 14, Iowa 15
Sagarin: PSU 7, UM 13, Iowa 17
TeamRankings: PSU 6, UM 13, Iowa 16

So if you refer back to my prior post, the lines are saying Penn State is about 7 points better than Michigan on a neutral field. You really think the difference between the #7 team and #13 team in college football is more than a touchdown (on average of course)?

Massey actually projects game scores, and they have Iowa losing to PSU 18-21, so right in there.

Fair enough.
Do you admit that according to those computer numbers Iowa is closer to Michigan than PSU? Do you also see that we are not in the middle of them but that Michigan is? Is it not a reasonable thing then to assume Michigan is closer to PSU then Iowa is?
Ok? So let's review. Say we didn't turn the ball over at all last week. Would that have been enough to win? IDK because we were still getting sacked left and right and couldn't move the ball. How many drives did we not turn it over but still came away with zero points?
Now you want to play a better team, slow it down, keep it close and in doing so you limit your own possessions as well?

Again, I get it, night game. We thrive in situations like this. We possibly aren't that bad. PSU is possibly not that good. ECT ECT.
I said don't bet against your home team.
Last week I figured we could of and should of won outright. The +points were a bonus but not really because as you know we were +1.5 on a neutral field. Less than a fg. So basically win outright.
If we play PSU on a neutral field do you think we can keep it within a TD? +6.5? Because I think that if we played them 10 times we win a couple. We lose by a fg in a couple and the other 6 out of 10 times we lose by a TD.
So I figure on a neutral site the line should fall in around 8.5. of course it would be adjusted as money came in.
That's basically how those computer numbers would work out if you kept going with them.
I just happen to be able to skip putting it all down in pencil.

 

[NikeHawk21]

Fair enough.
Do you admit that according to those computer numbers Iowa is closer to Michigan than PSU? Do you also see that we are not in the middle of them but that Michigan is? Is it not a reasonable thing then to assume Michigan is closer to PSU then Iowa is?
Ok? So let's review. Say we didn't turn the ball over at all last week. Would that have been enough to win? IDK because we were still getting sacked left and right and couldn't move the ball. How many drives did we not turn it over but still came away with zero points?
Now you want to play a better team, slow it down, keep it close and in doing so you limit your own possessions as well?

Again, I get it, night game. We thrive in situations like this. We possibly aren't that bad. PSU is possibly not that good. ECT ECT.
I said don't bet against your home team.
Last week I figured we could of and should of won outright. The +points were a bonus but not really because as you know we were +1.5 on a neutral field. Less than a fg. So basically win outright.
If we play PSU on a neutral field do you think we can keep it within a TD? +6.5? Because I think that if we played them 10 times we win a couple. We lose by a fg in a couple and the other 6 out of 10 times we lose by a TD.
So I figure on a neutral site the line should fall in around 8.5. of course it would be adjusted as money came in.
That's basically how those computer numbers would work out if you kept going with them.
I just happen to be able to skip putting it all down in pencil.

You’ve gone through all this discourse over a 1 or 2 point difference in what you think the line should be?

 

[SteveGarvey1]

Maybe forgetting to take into account how our banana uniforms are going to fire us up and mesmerize PSU.

 

[hawkinn3]

We know Stanley gets in his own head in addition to crumbling under pressure. I think he starts pressing hard and we lose every game until Illinois. Every team is going to blitz us into oblivion.

 

[4thngoal]

You’ve gone through all this discourse over a 1 or 2 point difference in what you think the line should be?

I didn't invent the game. But since I have to play, well, momma always told me if you are going to do something, be the best. You give it everything you've got or don't do it at all.
No I didn't invent the game, but I dam sure came to win. Winning is the only reason to play. You know who doesn't care about winning? Losers, and they only tell them selves that crap to make defeat acceptable to themselves.
It doesn't matter what it is. The machine at the fair, betting, a card game, heads or tails and it doesn't matter what it's for. A dollar, a car, or a million dollars. A loss is a loss. Just as winning is winning.
No I didn't invent the game and I didn't make the rules. But I fully intend to use everything at my disposal to win and maybe once and awhile shove those rigged rules right where they belong.
It's a game of inches. That's all.

But I suppose if a couple points isn't a big deal neither is a couple yards. Neither is a couple points on your credit card or house.

I didn't invent the game.

 

[NikeHawk21]

I didn't invent the game. But since I have to play, well, momma always told me if you are going to do something, be the best. You give it everything you've got or don't do it at all.
No I didn't invent the game, but I dam sure came to win. Winning is the only reason to play. You know who doesn't care about winning? Losers, and they only tell them selves that crap to make defeat acceptable to themselves.
It doesn't matter what it is. The machine at the fair, betting, a card game, heads or tails and it doesn't matter what it's for. A dollar, a car, or a million dollars. A loss is a loss. Just as winning is winning.
No I didn't invent the game and I didn't make the rules. But I fully intend to use everything at my disposal to win and maybe once and awhile shove those rigged rules right where they belong.
It's a game of inches. That's all.

But I suppose if a couple points isn't a big deal neither is a couple yards. Neither is a couple points on your credit card or house.

I didn't invent the game.

No it’s your lack of understanding that floors me not how bad you want to win. Sports betting is all about finding value. In this case you believe this line is incorrect (by a measly one or two points) you should be betting Penn State. It doesn’t matter if Iowa is your team, I assume you like money, and I assume you understand that your bet has no effect on the game.

 

[Fryowa]

Jesus.
Is it more likely that two teams tie for their division or 3 teams tie? Do the odds not go to the plus more for a 3 team parlay over a 2 team parlay? Why? Because it's not as likely.
So obviously in a three team situation 2 are probably more closely matched. Ta da.
As I said, everything points to Iowa and Michigan being the two teams that are closely matched. So no I don't like +1.5 against Michigan on a neutral field then turn around against a team that is better than Michigan and only get (current line +3.5) +6.5 against a better team on a neutral field.
Because I think PSU has a larger gap between themselves and Michigan than that.
Everything says they do!
HOWEVER. We are not at a neutral field. So one must ask who's defense is better PSU or Michigan? Probably PSU. Crowd noise isn't going to affect their defense much. Then one must ask who's offense is better Michigan or PSU? Probably PSU. Crowd noise can affect their offense more.
Then one must ask which side of the ball has Iowa struggled with? Hello?
So again I don't like the numbers.
All you are doing is simple math. The line here, the line there, the line at a neutral site.
Of course those numbers work out.
But along with realizing the full truth that you are betting against other people. You must realize you are looking for an anomaly in the numbers. Not trying to look and say yup here there or on neutral they add up. It's much better hidden than that.

I took the Hawks big last week because the the numbers worked. The anomly was in my favor.
How the hell was I supposed to know we would turn the ball over and over and over again. Or that we wouldn't be able to block....... anyone and allow 8 sacks.
We should have won that game. And that's the bad part. You win the ones you can.
This week, I'm not saying the Hawks can't win. I'm saying the line is not as good as last week. It wasn't even at +4.5

So first we realize we are not betting against the house. If a bear is chasing us, all I have to do is run faster than the slowest person.
Then we watch for the bear. An anomaly.
Lastly we never bet against our home team.
That has bad ju ju written all over it. If you can't get behind them to win, then at least don't go against them.
Would you bet on your kid to finish college or not? No.

Holy shit man...

You speaking about the techincals of sports betting is like me teaching sensitivity training to a room full of PhDs.

Everybody knows that one guy who goes on and on and on about some certain subject, making up bullshit under the guise of "conversation" so that everyone is supposed to think they know what they're talking about. In my opinion they do it for one of two reasons...1) they want to fit into a certain crowd and speak intelligently, or 2) they have extremely low self esteem and want to boost their ego a little bit. But the problem is that this guy doesn't realize that everyone completely sees through his bullshit and is just being nice by not calling him out. Sort of a "nod your head and smile" thing.

I'm sorry, but you're that guy when it comes to betting. You can come at us with all the "I have my system and it works for me" bullshit, and tell us what your spread calcs are, and how you've got some edge that Vegas bookmakers using supercomputers mysteriously haven't figured out yet, and tell us all about "anomalies" you've found (do you even know what that word really means?), but all it does is dig your bullshit hole deeper and deeper. There's a point at which you should quit while you're ahead and you've blown past it at 90 mph.

You've told us you live with a cat lady and have a house full of broken down shit consuming all your time, and that you paid a bill twice because you forgot to get a receipt for your cash. I'm sorry about your bad luck and cumulative poor life choices, but nobody here is going to believe for a New York second that you know the first fucking thing about making money on sports betting and how odds are made. I don't claim to be a source of knowledge on the subject whatsoever, and even I can see you're either totally full of shit or drunk (your weird carriage return thing when you type has got me wondering...).

Look man, don't feel bad. I got a dose of my own hubris tossed in my face as a younger guy too. I thought I was a really good pool player for a while, playing in tournaments around my home town, pool leagues, etc. So I decided I was going to take it up a notch and entered a 9 ball tournament in Omaha for $125; even got a hotel room to stay overnight. I went in there thinking it was going to go a certain way and got completely fucking destroyed 6 games in about 20 minutes. I guarantee you every single person in that building smelled sucker on me as soon as I got out of my car. By 10:20 I was out $250 bucks and looked like an idiot, but learning that I was a fucking idiot was priceless.

Don't be that guy. Everyone here smells sucker when you start posting about betting and you're just embarrassing yourself. I know you think I'm a dick but look at it this way, if you shit your pants but didn't know it, wouldn't you want someone to tell you you had a big brown stain on your drawers? Or would you rather walk around all day with poopy pants and everyone laughing at you behind your back?