HawkeyeMHA
Well-Known Member
He has to get stronger to get to the next level. He is smooth but some more strength would help him a lot. I don't mean muscle, but strength. More explosion.
Marble now the 4th leading scorer in the Big Ten
- Thread starter JonDMiller
- Start date
He has to get stronger to get to the next level. He is smooth but some more strength would help him a lot. I don't mean muscle, but strength. More explosion.
Ok this mathematical situation has bugged me all day (I am a high school math teacher) so I broke out my skills eventhough I am on break.
1) jon's theory was based on the eye test saying marble's skills have grown exponentially not his points (I believe...correct me if I'm wrong).
2) numbers were thrown out to go over the difference between the two types being exponential vs linear. Those numbers had nothing to do with marble's actual points so they were only to show what someone was talking about.
3) linear growth is growth by a constant number. Where as exponential growth is a growth factor based off of percentage. In exponential growth you have a formula of y=a*b^x...so if b is 1.4 you are growing at 40% or if b is 2 you are growing by 100%. Linear growth formula is y=a+bx or y=mx+b (latter is the u.s. version) where if the b or m (number multiplied by x) is 1.4 you go up by 1.4 each time.
4) so I graphed the data and did regressions to find the closest fits. I used x of 0, 1, 2 (frosh, soph, jr) and y of 5.7, 11.5, 16.1 (his points average for each yr). Neither equation linear or exponential was a great fit. When graphing the data you see a definite curve but it isn't exponential as the percent growth is decreasing each time. The linear equation actually fit better than the exponential.
5) exponential equation - y=6.06*1.68^x...this gave the following
Freshman yr - 6.06 ppg (+0.36 points from actual)
Sophomore yr - 10.181 ppg (-1.319 points from actual)
Junior yr - 17.104 (+1.004 points from actual)
Senior prediction - 28.734 ppg
6) linear equation - y=5.2x+5.9...this gave the following
Freshman yr - 5.9 ppg (+0.2 points from actual)
Sophomore yr - 11.1 ppg (-0.4 points from actual)
Junior yr - 16.3 ppg (+0.2 points from actual)
Senior prediction - 21.5 ppg
7) the numbers seem to say more like linear growth and the 21.5 ppg prediction sounds much more feasible.
8) but based off the eye test and not the numbers marble's skills do seem to have grown exponentially.
Sorry if this was confusing but I had to get it off my chest as many people just throwing out random stuff that wasn't even numbers associated with devyn's growth.
1) jon's theory was based on the eye test saying marble's skills have grown exponentially not his points (I believe...correct me if I'm wrong).
2) numbers were thrown out to go over the difference between the two types being exponential vs linear. Those numbers had nothing to do with marble's actual points so they were only to show what someone was talking about.
3) linear growth is growth by a constant number. Where as exponential growth is a growth factor based off of percentage. In exponential growth you have a formula of y=a*b^x...so if b is 1.4 you are growing at 40% or if b is 2 you are growing by 100%. Linear growth formula is y=a+bx or y=mx+b (latter is the u.s. version) where if the b or m (number multiplied by x) is 1.4 you go up by 1.4 each time.
4) so I graphed the data and did regressions to find the closest fits. I used x of 0, 1, 2 (frosh, soph, jr) and y of 5.7, 11.5, 16.1 (his points average for each yr). Neither equation linear or exponential was a great fit. When graphing the data you see a definite curve but it isn't exponential as the percent growth is decreasing each time. The linear equation actually fit better than the exponential.
5) exponential equation - y=6.06*1.68^x...this gave the following
Freshman yr - 6.06 ppg (+0.36 points from actual)
Sophomore yr - 10.181 ppg (-1.319 points from actual)
Junior yr - 17.104 (+1.004 points from actual)
Senior prediction - 28.734 ppg
6) linear equation - y=5.2x+5.9...this gave the following
Freshman yr - 5.9 ppg (+0.2 points from actual)
Sophomore yr - 11.1 ppg (-0.4 points from actual)
Junior yr - 16.3 ppg (+0.2 points from actual)
Senior prediction - 21.5 ppg
7) the numbers seem to say more like linear growth and the 21.5 ppg prediction sounds much more feasible.
8) but based off the eye test and not the numbers marble's skills do seem to have grown exponentially.
Sorry if this was confusing but I had to get it off my chest as many people just throwing out random stuff that wasn't even numbers associated with devyn's growth.
Billso
Well-Known Member
Your assessment is correct, although I am compelled to note that since this is the first time you've asked, it is not technically a "double" check.
GhostofBTT
Banned
Marble's had a good couple of games, but White is still best player on the team. Hands down.
Billso
Well-Known Member
Unfortunately, you're right. I misread FCAS' numbers as Marble's actuals. Marble's actuals plot as a straight line.
So you win the thread, FCAS still wins his argument on prior page, and Jon still wins the Internet because he can ban us anytime.
FRANAMANIAC
Well-Known Member
I thought Jon was saying his value to the team was exponential, not his scoring
I just did a quadratic regression (an equation to the power of 2) and it came out with NO ERROR.
I love math!!y = -0.6 x[SUP]2[/SUP] + 7.6 x - 1.3
So Devyn's growth has been quadratic and the equation says he will average 19.5 points next season.
tm3308
Well-Known Member
I just did a quadratic regression (an equation to the power of 2) and it came out with NO ERROR.
y = -0.6 x[SUP]2[/SUP] + 7.6 x - 1.3
View attachment 1663
So Devyn's growth has been quadratic and the equation says he will average 19.5 points next season.
I will have to check that quadratic. I never even thought to do that as the argument was all about linear and exponential. Linear came out the best so I just decided to stop. Thanks for thinking outside the box. I love all the nifty things you can do with math too.
His points are not exponential growth but I will agree with jon and others that what he means to the team has grown exponentially.
Section136
Well-Known Member
Troll.
Section136
Well-Known Member
That is going to be the fun part.
JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
I felt that Marble made an exponential jump between his freshman and soph seasons. Since hear nearly doubled his production, that's pretty safe. When the NBA talk came up this summer I was not a big fan of it. I felt like he'd have to make another 'exponential' jump in his overall play...not necc doubling points and that, as no one would predict that..but his overall game.
So far this year, he has increased his scoring greatly from where he was a year ago, and everything he is doing is much better than last year's big jump.
While it might also be linear, basketball players don't always improve like this or at the rate of which Marble is improving.
While it may not be truly exponential according to the raw numbers and is perhaps more akin to the linear relationship, the linear hypothesis would suggest that such a thing is standard or expected...which its not.
I will still use the 'subjective' exponential in my vernacular when defining Marble and I'll feel just fine about it
JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
Quadratic? Automatic? Hydromatic? Dev is freaking Greased Lightning!
rschneider
Well-Known Member
^^ Someone's hung over this morning.
Loving this statement.
I have to enjoy when I can use my mathematics on hawkeyenation.
I can't wait until the year is over and we can revisit this and see if we can come up with another equation to predict marble's senior yr. (Does this make me a nerd?)
Either way I agee with you jon his growth has been enormous each year and you typically don't see 2 jumps of this magnitude for 1 player. Therefore I will go with "exponential" being a good statement as it fits with your premise.
