Lunardi's Last 4 In verse Iowa

1hawkeye1 said:
Can't believe the run this NCAA tourney talk gets. The door slammed shut with the Nebraska loss. The only way we open it is with B1G tournament championship.
That's not happenin without Gesell.
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It would be incorrect to say that you are right.
 
look at the actual RPI numbers...the difference between Iowa (at .5510 and 86 in RPI) and Kentucky (at .5837 and 51 in RPI) is only .0327 while the difference between number 1 and 50 is almost .10

point is that the statistical difference between Iowa's RPI and a top 50 RPI is not that much, 3 or 4 straight wins could get us in....of course a loss tonight = we fawked
 
ssckelley said:
You able to respond without sarcasm? I have noticed you can be down right rude to people.

But to respond to a couple of your points, the RPI formula was changed in 2004 but before then New Mexico got an at large bid with a RPI ranking in the 70s (74 I think). That was back when only 64 teams made the field, now we are up to 68 so chances are good a team in the 70s will get in at some point. Another thing to keep in mind is most bracketologists already have Iowa on their bubble (either last 4 out or next 4 out), this means even though Iowa has an RPI in the mid 80s they must be taking other factors into consideration. The NCAA encourages the selection committee to use as many different rankings they want.

Having said this I still think Iowa is a long shot but still fun to talk about and debate. It is funny though I remember having the same debates last year on whether or not Iowa would get into the NIT. Most felt since Iowa had an RPI of 130 that there was no way they would get a bid, it was a nice surprise when they go in. Point is, you never know and anything can happen after all it is March Madness.
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links? I don't see Iowa anywhere on the mainstream bracketologist's radars.
 
smbhawk1 said:
Here is a scenario for you:

Iowa beats Illinois and Nebraska to end the regular season and 2 in the BTT. That puts us at 22-10.

Iowa St. Loses at home to Oklahoma St. and at West Virginia. Then loses in the B12 tourney. That would put them at 19-13.

Iowa would be in and Iowa St. would be out. The meltdown that would ensue would be epic.
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Here is another scenario for you. Iowa and ISU both win out, then get all the way to the NCAA title game and it ends up as a tie game and they both split the title.

The hypotheticals are hypothetical, the kool-aid is REAL.
 
if its RPI keeping us out, the nebraska loss doesnt really matter. it didnt really hurt us in the computers.

i dont see us passing teams like temple, villanova, or UVA in the eyes of the selection committe. so not only do we have to keeping winning, but also hope that boise, ISU, tennessee, etc lose.
 
They aren't right now, but we all know what Iowa's remaining schedule is compared to others on the bubble. One game can cost any of these teams at this point. Iowa should have 3 games in a row that they would be the favorite. Right? Everything is assuming Iowa win's their next 3. That would put them in the bubble equation without any other results of other games, but then you have to look at other teams on the bubble, who they play, and likely losses.

Villanova: #7 Gtown
ISU: #13 Okie State and @ WVU(far away road game)
Boise State: @UNLV, and SDSU
Kentucky: @ Georgia, and #11 Florida
UMASS: Butler
Ole Miss:Bama, @LSU
Tenn:mad:Auburn, Missouri
Colorado: #19 Oregon
ASU: @18 Arizona
Lasalle: @#16 St Louis
Alabama: vs Ole Miss, Ga
VA: @FSU, Maryland
Maryland: UNC, @VA

Many of these teams will lose a game, some may lose two. Opening the door even wider for us to get in assuming we win our next 3. A week ago, I thought we'd have to get to the semi's, after everyone else pis$ing down their legs the last couple weeks, I don't think so.
 
1hawkeye1 said:
Can't believe the run this NCAA tourney talk gets. The door slammed shut with the Nebraska loss. The only way we open it is with B1G tournament championship.
That's not happenin without Gesell.
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For someone to say this they must not know the resumes of the bubble teams.
 
This great Thread was started today, Don't we have a HUGE game in Carver tonight? Oh goody..

I hope I don't have to find the OP after the game tonight. :)
 
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People need to remember these bubble projections are based on the best team in every conference to win their conference tourney, that never happens. Once some of these mid major tournaments start and these mid major tourney locks lose the bubble will shrink 3 to 4 teams. Three in a row isn't going to do it, 4 in a row probably gets into the discussion for a play-in game.
 
DunderMifflinHk said:
Iowa
18-11 (7-9)
KenPom: 32
RPI: 86
SOS: 102
BPI: 54
Top 50 [100] Wins: Wisconsin, Minnesota [Iowa St, N. Iowa (N)]
150+ [100+] Losses: @Va Tech [@Nebraska, @Purdue]
________________

ISU
19-10 (9-7)
KenPom: 45
RPI: 53
SOS: 63
BPI: 42
Top 50 [100] Win: Kansas State, Oklahoma [BYU, Baylor, @Baylor]
150+ [100+] Losses: Texas Tech [@Texas]

Temple
21-8 (9-5)
KenPom: 76
RPI: 42
SOS: 48
BPI: 57
Top 50 [100] Wins: Syracuse, Saint Louis, Lasalle [@UMASS, @Villanova, Detroit, Charlotte, @Charlotte, Richmond]
150+ [100+] Losses: Duquesne [St. Bonaventure, Canisius]

Villanova
18-12 (9-8)
KenPom: 54
RPI: 55
SOS: 32
BPI: 63
Top 50 [100] Wins: Louisville, Syracuse, UConn, Marquette [St. John's, St. Joe's]
150+ [100+] Losses: Columbia [@Seton Hall]

Tennessee
17-11 (9-7)
KenPom: 63
RPI: 56
SOS: 38
BPI: 62
Top 50 [100] Wins: Wichita State, Florida (Kentucky, UMASS, Alabama, @Texas A&M, LSU, Xavier)
150+ [100+] Losses: none [Georgia, @Georgia]
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Look at how things change when you change the criteria a little bit.
 
Now that is more than likely four tournament teams iowa has beaten this year. Win the next three Iowa is in. Times have changed the RPI is no where close to as big of measuring stick has it use to be. The BPI is picking up big momentum in that area. I know its hard to except change , but you don't have to run a pro style offense in football. You no longer have to have a top 60 rpi to get a ticket to the show.
 
GoState1028 said:
Look at how things change when you change the criteria a little bit.
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Imagine if Nebraska beat Minnesota. And then if we could beat them two more times at home and in the big ten tournament.
And Nebraska somehow stayed in the top 100 rpi. That would make us look pretty good under this criteria.
 
HawkPhreek said:
Now that is more than likely four tournament teams iowa has beaten this year. Win the next three Iowa is in. Times have changed the RPI is no where close to as big of measuring stick has it use to be. The BPI is picking up big momentum in that area. I know its hard to except change , but you don't have to run a pro style offense in football. You no longer have to have a top 60 rpi to get a ticket to the show.
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Please go read my explanation of the RPI and how you're doing it wrong in the other thread. Thanks.
 
Iowa still controls their own destiny and doesn't have to win 4 in 4 days (BTT) to make it. That will be virtually impossible this year. I won't be the least bit nervous on Selection Sunday (SS) if we win the next 4. If we win the next 3 we have reason to tune in for the SS show.

If Minnesota splits their last 2 and OSU takes care of Illinois we could get OSU in the 2nd round and MN (could win their 1st 2 in the BTT) in the semi-finals. Just playing these 2 on neutral courts is good for the RPI...and we certainly could beat MN. I don't worry too much about RPI but I know many others do.
 
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