Lunardi-Updated Bubble

[hawkmatt]

LAST FOUR BYES
Oklahoma
California (drops here with loss to Utah)
Saint Mary's
Wichita State

LAST FOUR IN
La Salle
Kentucky
Virginia
Tennessee

FIRST FOUR OUT
Boise State
Middle Tennessee
Ole Miss
Southern Miss (replaces Baylor)

NEXT FOUR OUT
Alabama
Iowa
Baylor (drops from "First Four Out")
Maryland

From Bubble Watch
By Eamonn Brennan

Iowa [21-11 (9-9), RPI: 76, SOS: 125] The Hawkeyes ran roughshod over Northwestern in Thursday's Big Ten tournament finale, taking over from the beginning of the game and never letting the Wildcats -- who have been decimated by injuries, and without question the worst team in the league over the last month -- present a serious threat. But like several other bubble teams today, the Hawkeyes don?t just need to avoid bad losses. They need to make a real wave. They need to get a win, or two, that will convince the committee to look past that ugly nonconference schedule and RPI and focus more closely on the team's solid performance during Big Ten play (which saw them finish at 9-9 with brutally close losses to Indiana, Michigan State, Minnesota and Wisconsin) and their top-20 efficiency defense. Fortunately, that type of win is available Friday, in the form of No. 3-seed Michigan State. It won't be easy, but making a late bubble push with the 310th-ranked noncon SOS never is.

 

[bcl20]

I hate that Virginia's awful losses don't seem to matter.

 

[HawksMN]

So Miss whatever. Same goes with Mid Tenn St. Iowa wins tomorrow they will at least be toward the top of that First Four out. Then, anything goes.

 

[BlacknGold19]

Nothing was going to change after beating Northwestern..win tomorrow, everything changes.

 

[patmyne]

Part of me wonders if people like Joe Lunardi didn't do this stuff if things would be different as to who would really be in and out. The constant pimping or in our case dissing of teams has to have an impact of some sort...

 

[WindsorHawk]

I don't put much stock in what any of these guys say but this post will be with the assumption this information is gospel.

The last 4 byes are almost certainly in at this point. There have to be 5 significant upsets to move any of them completely out.

Kentucky, Virginia and Tennessee are out if they lose tomorrow. La Salle is probably vulnerable as well. Baylor is done. Maryland is done if they lose to Duke tomorrow.

If we win tomorrow we should jump Alabama even if they win. Our win is better. I think we also jump at least 3 of the first 4 out. This probably gets us to the last 4 in if 2 of those 3 lose. Beat Ohio State and we move up to the last 4 byes and are a lock. Lose to Ohio State and then we are in the that group of last 4 in and last 4 out which could lose some members and add some members depending on the conference tournaments.

So...we should have a pretty good idea where we stand by the time our game starts tomorrow. If enough of the other games break right and there are no major upsets moving other teams up in the conversation we could be in when we go to sleep tomorrow night.

 

[jacknicholson]

I don't see how they can pick Minnesota over us.....

They have a losing record in the conference, have lost six of their last 9 games, one of the losses was to Nebraska, lost in the first round of the Big Tournament, lost by about 20 to us at Carver, we lost at Minnesota to a last second three, and their preconference schedule is pathetic......

Minnesota State, Mankato
Southwest Baptist
American
Tennessee State
Toledo
Richmond
Stanford
Florida State
North Florida
South Dakota State
USC
North Dakota State
Lafayette




They did play and lose to Duke, and they played Memphis whose schedule is also pathetic despite their record.....

Just doesn't seem right to me.....

 

[jacknicholson]

Stanford's record is 18-14
Florida State's record is 18-14
Richmond's record is 18-14
USC's record is 14-18

One of their losses is to Minnesota.....

I despise RPI and Lunardi......

Just a personal opinion......

 

[jacknicholson]

LAST FOUR BYES
Oklahoma
California (drops here with loss to Utah)
Saint Mary's
Wichita State

LAST FOUR IN
La Salle
Kentucky
Virginia
Tennessee

FIRST FOUR OUT
Boise State
Middle Tennessee
Ole Miss
Southern Miss (replaces Baylor)

NEXT FOUR OUT
Alabama
Iowa
Baylor (drops from "First Four Out")
Maryland

From Bubble Watch
By Eamonn Brennan

Iowa [21-11 (9-9), RPI: 76, SOS: 125] The Hawkeyes ran roughshod over Northwestern in Thursday's Big Ten tournament finale, taking over from the beginning of the game and never letting the Wildcats -- who have been decimated by injuries, and without question the worst team in the league over the last month -- present a serious threat. But like several other bubble teams today, the Hawkeyes don?t just need to avoid bad losses. They need to make a real wave. They need to get a win, or two, that will convince the committee to look past that ugly nonconference schedule and RPI and focus more closely on the team's solid performance during Big Ten play (which saw them finish at 9-9 with brutally close losses to Indiana, Michigan State, Minnesota and Wisconsin) and their top-20 efficiency defense. Fortunately, that type of win is available Friday, in the form of No. 3-seed Michigan State. It won't be easy, but making a late bubble push with the 310th-ranked noncon SOS never is.

The loss at Nebraska killed us. There is still hope, as you say.....

Almost winning means nothing, but that obvious flop at the end of the MSU game by Travis Trice against McCabe cost us the game at Carver. No home break there.....

 

[volhawk50]

Part of me wonders if people like Joe Lunardi didn't do this stuff if things would be different as to who would really be in and out. The constant pimping or in our case dissing of teams has to have an impact of some sort...

I may have figured Joe out. Probably once upon a time, he told a fan base, "if your team wins one in the conference tourney, they will get in." so that team won one in the conference tournament and didn't get in, and that fan base ripped Joe to no end. From that point forward, Joe was sure to overestimate what every team needs to do to get in. So he may be telling us we need two more because he doesn't want to indicate in any way that we we will surely be in with one win, in case one win doesn't get us in.

 

[Hawknick]

Iowa should be ahead of both Minnesota and Illinois.

 

[Section136]

Whats going to happen with Louisiana Tech since they choked to a turrible team in their conference tourney?

Are they in? On bubble? Out?

 

[H8IAST8]

Whats going to happen with Louisiana Tech since they choked to a turrible team in their conference tourney?

Are they in? On bubble? Out?

I think their loss in their last regular season game meant they had to win their Conference tournament.

 

[blubberhawk]

Iowa should be ahead of both Minnesota and Illinois.

You are right on Iowa being in before Minnesota.

No way Illinois is not getting in with wins at Gonzaga, neutral court over Butler, Indiana, etc. Their non-conference wins are just too good to ignore.
I can't really argue Iowa is more deserving than Illinois.

 

[Hawknick]

Iowa beat Illinois and has a better Big 10 record.

 

[H8IAST8]

Iowa beat Illinois and has a better Big 10 record.

Illinois is a 100% lead pipe lock. Probably a 6 seed

 

[Section136]

Iowa beat Illinois and has a better Big 10 record.

Iowa only played them once, at home, and had an easier B1G schedule.

The joys of an unbalanced conference schedule.

Illinois is in solidly and there isnt really a reason for complaint about it.

 

[ameshawkeye]

I see there are still people trying to put in Iowa over IL and MN. GET OVER IT. Pretty clear people don't understand overall resumes.

 

[ssckelley]

I see there are still people trying to put in Iowa over IL and MN. GET OVER IT. Pretty clear people don't understand overall resumes.

People have different opinions, they are entitled to one. This forum would be boring if we all agreed to everything.

So YOU get over it!

<consider yourself flamed>

 

[ameshawkeye]

People have different opinions, they are entitled to one. This forum would be boring if we all agreed to everything.

So YOU get over it!

<consider yourself flamed>

You know, I understand and support that. It's just so nauseating to read the same thing over and over about those teams. It's an extremely simple-minded opinion to have, spouting conference seeding and overall records.