Montanahawk
Well-Known Member
A couple of things about me and stats. I think they can be instructive but are usually lacking proper context that makes them valuable. Two, my eagerness to raise my aptitude in analyzing them is limited.
That said I really like some of the efforts to put "common sense" into stats and I think Football Outsiders, generally speaking, does a good job of that. But here in looking at their stats on the OL the first thing that strikes me is that Iowa does not have top quality skill position players. There is no Carlos Hyde, no Braxton Miller, no Melvin Gordon or Allen Robinson creating plays and making the OL stat line look better in some cases than it sometimes deserves. Overall our OL finished 56th. That seems low, and lower than what it looked like they deserved. Again, how much of that was a lack of skill position talent/play calling. But, some things that struck me as interesting we finished 60th in Power success rate-which should be a Iowa strength. We typically have physical run blocking and beefy power backs. We have "The Juggernaut"(we also have LeShun Daniels and to some lesser extent, Bullock)we have some big TE's. We should own this category but that's not the case. Some of the fault there may lay in play calling. We're overwhelmingly going to run it and we don't have the speed, sans Powell(who really only had two-three plays so fairly easy to play) to really scare people we're going to hurt them deep on the play action. So, rarely do teams have to play well off the receiver, allow for a easy WR screen, and concede a third or fourth and short rather than give up a huge play. Some may be on interior OL, which was smallish on one side and fairly inexperienced. With Weisman, you know he's not going to streak to the outside so you can crunch in on third or fourth and short. Our bread and butter side is over LT with Man-Monster, Shreff. But, if you're a defense you over play that side in that situation. This looks like a category we should pretty easily improve upon next year. We'll be bigger, stronger at the center and one of the guard spots. Schreff is back, we'll have both receivers and a QB that we can put more trust on in a make it or break it situation. Would like to see LeShun Daniels get a few more carries in these situations, want someone with a quicker burst off the ball. We need to be able to squash people in short yardage situations.
Stuff rate-how often the runner get's stuffed at or behind the LOS-we did, unsurprisingly, well finishing 23rd. Weisman is sa-strong and the OL usually is solid right at the LOS. Very few missed blocks/ assignment breakdowns(Ferentz/s!).
Opportunity Rate- This is the percentage of carries in which the offensive line "does its job" and produces at least five yards of rushing for the runner.
Not sure it's a given that the first five yards are "on the OL". A lot of it is also burst, reads, and play calling. If you a RB making the wrong read no OL is going to save him. If he doesn't explode off the ball that gives the "D" the chance to make a play on him. If the play calling is too pre-diddly-ictable or just flat out bad, the defense is going to be ready to make a play and overpower the OL. But, be that as it may in this category we finished 64th. We may be helped here in 2014 with that Doylerized interior OL and getting the ball more often into the hands of backs like Canzeri(Wadley...) and Daniels who can make some people miss early.
2013 college football offensive line rankings: Line yards, opportunity rates, etc. - Football Study Hall
They also have done the DL...we ranked a more accurate, 14th in that.
2013 college football defensive line rankings: Who stood up to run blocking or rushed the passer best? - Football Study Hall
That said I really like some of the efforts to put "common sense" into stats and I think Football Outsiders, generally speaking, does a good job of that. But here in looking at their stats on the OL the first thing that strikes me is that Iowa does not have top quality skill position players. There is no Carlos Hyde, no Braxton Miller, no Melvin Gordon or Allen Robinson creating plays and making the OL stat line look better in some cases than it sometimes deserves. Overall our OL finished 56th. That seems low, and lower than what it looked like they deserved. Again, how much of that was a lack of skill position talent/play calling. But, some things that struck me as interesting we finished 60th in Power success rate-which should be a Iowa strength. We typically have physical run blocking and beefy power backs. We have "The Juggernaut"(we also have LeShun Daniels and to some lesser extent, Bullock)we have some big TE's. We should own this category but that's not the case. Some of the fault there may lay in play calling. We're overwhelmingly going to run it and we don't have the speed, sans Powell(who really only had two-three plays so fairly easy to play) to really scare people we're going to hurt them deep on the play action. So, rarely do teams have to play well off the receiver, allow for a easy WR screen, and concede a third or fourth and short rather than give up a huge play. Some may be on interior OL, which was smallish on one side and fairly inexperienced. With Weisman, you know he's not going to streak to the outside so you can crunch in on third or fourth and short. Our bread and butter side is over LT with Man-Monster, Shreff. But, if you're a defense you over play that side in that situation. This looks like a category we should pretty easily improve upon next year. We'll be bigger, stronger at the center and one of the guard spots. Schreff is back, we'll have both receivers and a QB that we can put more trust on in a make it or break it situation. Would like to see LeShun Daniels get a few more carries in these situations, want someone with a quicker burst off the ball. We need to be able to squash people in short yardage situations.
Stuff rate-how often the runner get's stuffed at or behind the LOS-we did, unsurprisingly, well finishing 23rd. Weisman is sa-strong and the OL usually is solid right at the LOS. Very few missed blocks/ assignment breakdowns(Ferentz/s!).
Opportunity Rate- This is the percentage of carries in which the offensive line "does its job" and produces at least five yards of rushing for the runner.
Not sure it's a given that the first five yards are "on the OL". A lot of it is also burst, reads, and play calling. If you a RB making the wrong read no OL is going to save him. If he doesn't explode off the ball that gives the "D" the chance to make a play on him. If the play calling is too pre-diddly-ictable or just flat out bad, the defense is going to be ready to make a play and overpower the OL. But, be that as it may in this category we finished 64th. We may be helped here in 2014 with that Doylerized interior OL and getting the ball more often into the hands of backs like Canzeri(Wadley...) and Daniels who can make some people miss early.
2013 college football offensive line rankings: Line yards, opportunity rates, etc. - Football Study Hall
They also have done the DL...we ranked a more accurate, 14th in that.
2013 college football defensive line rankings: Who stood up to run blocking or rushed the passer best? - Football Study Hall
