Looking ahead this year and next

L

longtimer

Well-Known Member
No question this team plays hard till the end and has a first team All American in Garza, but it's going to be difficult with the players we have left. Obviously depth has been an issue all year and is especially important this time of the year and into the tournament. Right there with Northwestern and Nebraska in terms of bench strength and now with Fredricks likely out starters are going to log a lot of time. So how can we pick up a couple more wins this year and get into the tournament? Maybe we need to slow it down? We don't have the depth to be up and down and certainly don't have a lot of fouls to give.
Will be interesting to see how Fran coaches this team the rest of the way

Next year the Big Ten looks to be very good, maybe better than this year. Iowa could be very good as well if Garza stays. If he doesn't then most likely second division

I can't imagine Garza isn't at least a second round pick and I can't imagine he could have a better year than he is having?
 
longtimer said:
No question this team plays hard till the end and has a first team All American in Garza, but it's going to be difficult with the players we have left. Obviously depth has been an issue all year and is especially important this time of the year and into the tournament. Right there with Northwestern and Nebraska in terms of bench strength and now with Fredricks likely out starters are going to log a lot of time. So how can we pick up a couple more wins this year and get into the tournament? Maybe we need to slow it down? We don't have the depth to be up and down and certainly don't have a lot of fouls to give.
Will be interesting to see how Fran coaches this team the rest of the way

Next year the Big Ten looks to be very good, maybe better than this year. Iowa could be very good as well if Garza stays. If he doesn't then most likely second division

I can't imagine Garza isn't at least a second round pick and I can't imagine he could have a better year than he is having?
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Agree with all.

While no way he will be better, I think simply repeating -- showing he's consistently legit -- especially with the spotlight on, will only help his prospects. He also has plenty of work to do to be an NBA defender and learning how to pass out of double teams.

I even think he could put up less gawdy stats and still improve his stock. In fact, I hope that is the case because it would mean the others are developing into more reliable, consistent contributors.

Here's my 2020-21 Hawkeye bball wet dream ...
- Garza: 20 and 10, lower the TO's, break 70% from the line. Keep making George Mikan proud.

- JoeW: 15 and 6 (nothing new) but bring it every single game. Get A:TO to 2:1. Find you're Mo, Joe!

- CJ: C-Joe's ppg and rbg. Other than that, don't change a damn thing and stay healthy!

- JoeT: Controlled attack and court awareness. Need 9-10 from you and your A:TO to 2+:1. Don't ever shoot a 3.

- C-Mac: Stay tough and keep dishing. You're almost there with the shot, so, let's get you to 9-10 ppg.

- Jo-Bo: I can't wait to see your farewell tour. Come back and do what you do - dish at 3:1, let 'er fly, seal the game from the line.

- Gabriel Reggie Ogundele: We love our big African-Anglicans in Black and Gold. I ain't Gary Dolphin but let me be the first to welcome you as our next King Kong force patrolling the paint. (Oh, lighten up and drop the faux indignance, Nancy!) Luka needs you. Opponents will fear you. HawkeyeNation will worship you. You will give us a desparately needed 8 and 8.

- P-Mac and Jack: Just get and stay well. You, along with TUllis and the Murrays are part of the Gravy Train. Be competent, know your role and do it well when you get opportunities.

Gimme this squad, consistency each night and a healthy season ... that's a late March run, baby!:):cool:
 
I’m not sure how the B1G is better next year. Sparty loses Winston and Tillman. Maryland loses Cowan and most likely Smith. Penn State loses Stevens and Watkins. I’m guessing Wesson goes for OSU. Oturu likely gone for Minny.

Who knows what the Iowa guys will do. If they all return we should be near the top. If we lose just one I still think we will be pretty formidable actually.

Right now I’m just hoping this team can finish enough to get to the tournament. That would be a pretty successful season all things considered.
 
NikeHawk21 said:
I’m not sure how the B1G is better next year. Sparty loses Winston and Tillman. Maryland loses Cowan and most likely Smith. Penn State loses Stevens and Watkins. I’m guessing Wesson goes for OSU. Oturu likely gone for Minny.

Who knows what the Iowa guys will do. If they all return we should be near the top. If we lose just one I still think we will be pretty formidable actually.

Right now I’m just hoping this team can finish enough to get to the tournament. That would be a pretty successful season all things considered.
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It's about time for @WindsorHawk to make his annual "what the Big 10 loses next year" thread. I'm really curious to see what it looks like. The 6 guys you mentioned are 99% of the reason the top 3 teams are good this year. You gotta assume Sparty will still have it. But who knows.
 
STILLBUSTER said:
Agree with all.

While no way he will be better, I think simply repeating -- showing he's consistently legit -- especially with the spotlight on, will only help his prospects. He also has plenty of work to do to be an NBA defender and learning how to pass out of double teams.

I even think he could put up less gawdy stats and still improve his stock. In fact, I hope that is the case because it would mean the others are developing into more reliable, consistent contributors.

Here's my 2020-21 Hawkeye bball wet dream ...
- Garza: 20 and 10, lower the TO's, break 70% from the line. Keep making George Mikan proud.

- JoeW: 15 and 6 (nothing new) but bring it every single game. Get A:TO to 2:1. Find you're Mo, Joe!

- CJ: C-Joe's ppg and rbg. Other than that, don't change a damn thing and stay healthy!

- JoeT: Controlled attack and court awareness. Need 9-10 from you and your A:TO to 2+:1. Don't ever shoot a 3.

- C-Mac: Stay tough and keep dishing. You're almost there with the shot, so, let's get you to 9-10 ppg.

- Jo-Bo: I can't wait to see your farewell tour. Come back and do what you do - dish at 3:1, let 'er fly, seal the game from the line.

- Gabriel Reggie Ogundele: We love our big African-Anglicans in Black and Gold. I ain't Gary Dolphin but let me be the first to welcome you as our next King Kong force patrolling the paint. (Oh, lighten up and drop the faux indignance, Nancy!) Luka needs you. Opponents will fear you. HawkeyeNation will worship you. You will give us a desparately needed 8 and 8.

- P-Mac and Jack: Just get and stay well. You, along with TUllis and the Murrays are part of the Gravy Train. Be competent, know your role and do it well when you get opportunities.

Gimme this squad, consistency each night and a healthy season ... that's a late March run, baby!:):cool:
Click to expand...

I'm not indignant about your Ogundele remarks but it might be best just to let sleeping dogs lie if you know what I mean.
 
Garza has "nothing more to prove", but is that really the only reason to stay? I know this isn't the days of needing to be a lottery pick to go, but not everyone needs or wants to leave the second they have the option of making any amount of money. If Garza really can't improve his stock (which I think is asinine considering how hard he works and how much he improved this year) that doesn't mean his stock is high enough to justify for sure leaving.

Nic Baer couldn't improve his stock before his last year, and had the option of making money, but that doesn't mean he should have left. Garza has the option to come back for one more year to be an absolute legend here forever. No one in his lifetime will every forget the name Luka Garza as long as he's alive because the record books won't allow it.

His career path will probably resemble Aaron White's and I highly doubt Whitey wishes he would have left a year early. Garza's legend will be 10 times what White's is if he comes back. His jersey very well might end up in the rafters either way. But if he comes back, it without a doubt will. Being the all time scorer at a school is something to be proud of your entire life. All that stuff can be passed up for millions of dollars. But if you're going to be a boarderline NBA player next year or the following year regardless, is all the stuff I just mentioned worth losing out on? For some, obviously. For others, maybe not.
 
I can't look at next year right now. I just can't. Things rarely go as we think they will. Most of us expected this team to struggle THIS year and that was before we lost 4 scholarship players. They didn't, they were pretty good. I think just because we return everyone next year, it doesn't automatically mean we are going to be good either. Like, let's say we do and we are one of the pre-season favorites for the B1G and maybe top 15 or 10 pre-season nationally. That's a pretty high bar to start out with. I could see them not living up to that type of hype and then essentially we might all be let down. Much like this season, a lot of us have been plenty surprised. It's college sports, very rarely do things go as we think they will.
 
InGoodCo said:
I can't look at next year right now. I just can't. Things rarely go as we think they will. Most of us expected this team to struggle THIS year and that was before we lost 4 scholarship players. They didn't, they were pretty good. I think just because we return everyone next year, it doesn't automatically mean we are going to be good either. Like, let's say we do and we are one of the pre-season favorites for the B1G and maybe top 15 or 10 pre-season nationally. That's a pretty high bar to start out with. I could see them not living up to that type of hype and then essentially we might all be let down. Much like this season, a lot of us have been plenty surprised. It's college sports, very rarely do things go as we think they will.
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There is the worry that once a team realizes their goal can't be met, they pack it in. I just think we are too good of a team to do that next year, but it is possible. I also think having a guy that can efficiently get 20+ points every single game is an advantage no other team has. Our margin for error is way bigger than everyone else's because of that. Of course injuries crushed that margin of error this year. But hopefully next year it won't. I think next year our average offense gives us 12 conference wins. Our defense and offense playing great are going to have to get us 4 more. That's pretty damn doable.
 
I still think the biggest question here is Fran capable of putting a conference championship team out on the floor that ends in a conference championship? Have what you have seen, the body of work, does it give you faith it will get done? Again, if he is going to get this done, I have to think next year has to be the year or I'm not sure where it is coming from.

Garza, to me, feels like the only real tangible championship piece he has assembled (for sure, he had good players like White, Marble, Jok, JU, but not playing at Garza's level). It feels like it came out of nowhere (by all accounts he really worked his ass off in the off-season and it shows big time). If you can get that out of another couple players I think it would make things interesting.

I was wrong this year (at least I still think I will be wrong) about them making the NCAAs. But, if I was putting real money on them winning a championship next year or not, I would still put it on the latter. Until Fran can prove he can win on the road, I just don't see it.

Something likely goes sideways.
 
The weakness with Fran's teams, now, the past and likely the future, is that he has yet to get a difference maker, an all-conference player at the point. We just haven't had the talent at the position with the ball in his hands that can take defenders off the dribble, shoot, pass and command the game. And all in all, we just haven't had many guys period. Woolridge and BJ are the only guys I can think of in the last 40 years. If we had NBA talent at that position, with the rest of the complimentary players, and take your pick of White, Jok, Marble, Uthoff, Garza, JBo, Wieskamp, Cook, etc. and everyone gets better. The only guy on the roster or that could be on the roster next year (save for transfers) that can even come close to providing that role is JoeT, who would have to develop a jump shot (which he can do) and be smarter and manage the game more effectively (which will take time).
 
PCHawk said:
It's about time for @WindsorHawk to make his annual "what the Big 10 loses next year" thread. I'm really curious to see what it looks like. The 6 guys you mentioned are 99% of the reason the top 3 teams are good this year. You gotta assume Sparty will still have it. But who knows.
Click to expand...
Early next week I’ll post it.
 
dirtwrap said:
The weakness with Fran's teams, now, the past and likely the future, is that he has yet to get a difference maker, an all-conference player at the point. We just haven't had the talent at the position with the ball in his hands that can take defenders off the dribble, shoot, pass and command the game. And all in all, we just haven't had many guys period. Woolridge and BJ are the only guys I can think of in the last 40 years. If we had NBA talent at that position, with the rest of the complimentary players, and take your pick of White, Jok, Marble, Uthoff, Garza, JBo, Wieskamp, Cook, etc. and everyone gets better. The only guy on the roster or that could be on the roster next year (save for transfers) that can even come close to providing that role is JoeT, who would have to develop a jump shot (which he can do) and be smarter and manage the game more effectively (which will take time).
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Even so if EVERYONE is back next year I will gladly take our chances with an all conference 5th year cold blooded all time assist/3 ball shooting JBO at the point. Yeah his weakness is breaking down the D going to the hole for TWO but I'll settle for his demoralizing heart ripping out THREES from 35' and never miss free throws to close out the games. Back him up with change of pace JT and we be good!

And Garza ABSOLUTELY will be better if he returns.
 
dirtwrap said:
The weakness with Fran's teams, now, the past and likely the future, is that he has yet to get a difference maker, an all-conference player at the point. We just haven't had the talent at the position with the ball in his hands that can take defenders off the dribble, shoot, pass and command the game. And all in all, we just haven't had many guys period. Woolridge and BJ are the only guys I can think of in the last 40 years. If we had NBA talent at that position, with the rest of the complimentary players, and take your pick of White, Jok, Marble, Uthoff, Garza, JBo, Wieskamp, Cook, etc. and everyone gets better. The only guy on the roster or that could be on the roster next year (save for transfers) that can even come close to providing that role is JoeT, who would have to develop a jump shot (which he can do) and be smarter and manage the game more effectively (which will take time).
Click to expand...
Iowa needs an elite PG JT does have the potential in quickness and grit.
 
STILLBUSTER said:
Agree with all.

While no way he will be better, I think simply repeating -- showing he's consistently legit -- especially with the spotlight on, will only help his prospects. He also has plenty of work to do to be an NBA defender and learning how to pass out of double teams.

I even think he could put up less gawdy stats and still improve his stock. In fact, I hope that is the case because it would mean the others are developing into more reliable, consistent contributors.

Here's my 2020-21 Hawkeye bball wet dream ...
- Garza: 20 and 10, lower the TO's, break 70% from the line. Keep making George Mikan proud.

- JoeW: 15 and 6 (nothing new) but bring it every single game. Get A:TO to 2:1. Find you're Mo, Joe!

- CJ: C-Joe's ppg and rbg. Other than that, don't change a damn thing and stay healthy!

- JoeT: Controlled attack and court awareness. Need 9-10 from you and your A:TO to 2+:1. Don't ever shoot a 3.

- C-Mac: Stay tough and keep dishing. You're almost there with the shot, so, let's get you to 9-10 ppg.

- Jo-Bo: I can't wait to see your farewell tour. Come back and do what you do - dish at 3:1, let 'er fly, seal the game from the line.

- Gabriel Reggie Ogundele: We love our big African-Anglicans in Black and Gold. I ain't Gary Dolphin but let me be the first to welcome you as our next King Kong force patrolling the paint. (Oh, lighten up and drop the faux indignance, Nancy!) Luka needs you. Opponents will fear you. HawkeyeNation will worship you. You will give us a desparately needed 8 and 8.

- P-Mac and Jack: Just get and stay well. You, along with TUllis and the Murrays are part of the Gravy Train. Be competent, know your role and do it well when you get opportunities.

Gimme this squad, consistency each night and a healthy season ... that's a late March run, baby!:):cool:
Click to expand...
Perhaps, next year, Iowa will have a season where "things work out." We are due.
 
NikeHawk21 said:
I’m not sure how the B1G is better next year. Sparty loses Winston and Tillman. Maryland loses Cowan and most likely Smith. Penn State loses Stevens and Watkins. I’m guessing Wesson goes for OSU. Oturu likely gone for Minny.

Who knows what the Iowa guys will do. If they all return we should be near the top. If we lose just one I still think we will be pretty formidable actually.

Right now I’m just hoping this team can finish enough to get to the tournament. That would be a pretty successful season all things considered.
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Why I thought Big Ten might be very good next year
Northwestern wont be great but was very young this year and much tougher out especially on road next
Nebraska Hoiberg has some waiting in the wings good coach and recruiter they will be a lot better
Indiana don't lose much as Davis says he is coming back (although they may well be playing for new coach?)
Illinois Dosummu likely gone but most everyone else back Underwood may make Illinois relevant again
Maryland Cowan and probably Smith gone Turgeon has players and can recruit they will be good
Michigan Simpson and Teske gone Not sure here but my guess is Howard will be able to recruit well
Michigan State Winston (finally)Tillman is a jr I think and not good enough to go Watts next star they are always good
Minnesota no Seniors of consequence If Otura stays and I think he will they will be pretty good
Penn State Watkins and Stevens gone may take step back but not like it used to be
Purdue Don' t think they lose much good coach good recruiter beat us by 40
Rutgers Baker may go they may not be great but tough out LIke Penn State not the same old Rutgers Undefeated at home this year in Big Ten
Wisconsin Somehow they are always good especially against us Reuvers comes back and they will be pretty good

Kind of like this year No great team but awfully tough top to bottom throw Iowa in with Garza and just another very good team

PS I obviously would love to see Garza come back but he sure looks like at least a second round pick this year. If that turns out to be the case I would advise him to thank the fans and coaches and go
 
longtimer said:
Why I thought Big Ten might be very good next year
Northwestern wont be great but was very young this year and much tougher out especially on road next
Nebraska Hoiberg has some waiting in the wings good coach and recruiter they will be a lot better
Indiana don't lose much as Davis says he is coming back (although they may well be playing for new coach?)
Illinois Dosummu likely gone but most everyone else back Underwood may make Illinois relevant again
Maryland Cowan and probably Smith gone Turgeon has players and can recruit they will be good
Michigan Simpson and Teske gone Not sure here but my guess is Howard will be able to recruit well
Michigan State Winston (finally)Tillman is a jr I think and not good enough to go Watts next star they are always good
Minnesota no Seniors of consequence If Otura stays and I think he will they will be pretty good
Penn State Watkins and Stevens gone may take step back but not like it used to be
Purdue Don' t think they lose much good coach good recruiter beat us by 40
Rutgers Baker may go they may not be great but tough out LIke Penn State not the same old Rutgers Undefeated at home this year in Big Ten
Wisconsin Somehow they are always good especially against us Reuvers comes back and they will be pretty good

Kind of like this year No great team but awfully tough top to bottom throw Iowa in with Garza and just another very good team

PS I obviously would love to see Garza come back but he sure looks like at least a second round pick this year. If that turns out to be the case I would advise him to thank the fans and coaches and go
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If he's a 2nd round pick this year, he can be a 2nd round pick next year too, or perhaps even a 1st. There is no telling if coming back would make him more money or cost him some. My guess is Garza has faith in himself and his ability to work hard to improve. He probably thinks coming back will make him money. If that's true, he will have a decision on whether he wants some money now, or more money later with a lifetime legacy already in the bank. I bet he comes back with anything less than a 1st round grade.
 
PCHawk said:
If he's a 2nd round pick this year, he can be a 2nd round pick next year too, or perhaps even a 1st. There is no telling if coming back would make him more money or cost him some. My guess is Garza has faith in himself and his ability to work hard to improve. He probably thinks coming back will make him money. If that's true, he will have a decision on whether he wants some money now, or more money later with a lifetime legacy already in the bank. I bet he comes back with anything less than a 1st round grade.
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Honesty, if anyone is in the ball park as a first rounder, why come back? You never make up that year of lost income and even better player development from NBA professionals awaits to enhance your career. Certainly some want more college experiences and a chance at a title, but why come back if your team is anything less than championship caliber? Iowa does have potential next year if he returns, for sure. Will be a tough decision.
 
Looked to next year, now just ahead ...

Haven't dissected, but just raw observation of a couple things:
1) Hawks seem to do what they are supposed to do - W when favored, L when not.
- Refreshing to take care of business when you're supposed to, eh, Kirk? ;)

2) They're really good at home; incomplete / inconsistent and below avg on the road.
- Nothing earth-shattering between home / road for any team (especially given the horrific officiating in the BigXIV) but Hawks really seem to be the poster child in how different they are between the two.

Here's how I see 2020 finishing ...

@ minny: +3, lose 77 - 70

vs OhSt: - 1-1/2, win 71 - 67

@ Sparty: + 8-1/2, lose 85 - 69

vs PSU: + 4-1/2, lose 76 - 71

vs Pud-U: - 3-1/2, win 77 - 66

@ illannoy: + 4-1/2, lose 83 - 74

BTT: Rubber match vs Michigan on Thurs. Blue is playing some solid, all-around ball, lately, and will be favored by 3 to 4 points. Another 1 and done for Iowa in the BTT, losing 84 - 73.

Slide into the NCAA as a 10 (maybe a 9, let's hope not) seed, where they face one of these (depending on seed)
- USC, Arizona, LSU, Saint Mary's, Xavier, Oklahoma, Houston, possible rematch with Tx Tech or maybe even UNI.

Something tells me Luka - I mean, the Hawks - find a way to win that first round, only to get obliterated by Louisville, Duke, Baylor or Gonzaga (again depending on that 9 or 10 seeding).

All in all ... just making the Dance this year far exceeded expectations and watching Luka Garza, night-in, night-out has been one of my all-time favorite Hawkeye fan experiences.
 
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revkev73 said:
Honesty, if anyone is in the ball park as a first rounder, why come back? You never make up that year of lost income and even better player development from NBA professionals awaits to enhance your career. Certainly some want more college experiences and a chance at a title, but why come back if your team is anything less than championship caliber? Iowa does have potential next year if he returns, for sure. Will be a tough decision.
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If you're basing your decision solely on money, there is no reason to come back no matter what. Go play in the G league whenever you get the chance if that's what your number 1 priority is. I base a lot of my life decisions on money. But I also base some of them on enjoying life. I'm probably somewhere in the middle and I would still come back if I was Garza (unless I was a lottery pick). I also have a bit of a tendency to be afraid of change tho too so maybe that's a factor. I just think living out your senior year in Garza's position is priceless. I would guess that out of all the people who struggle with the decision, a lot more people look back with regret for not staying the last year than ones who have regret they didn't leave a year earlier.
 
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